9/12 and 9/19 Primaries: Prediction Time!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is going to be my third primary. Of course, I only voted in the first one so I could register, and only voted in the second one so I could change my registration to my new address.

[Lincoln Republican]

The race that will have the biggest national impact is easily the Rhode Island GOP Senate nomination.

At last, Rhode Island has some national clout in an election.

[Boris]

The race that will have the biggest national impact is easily the Rhode Island GOP Senate nomination.

At last, Rhode Island has some national clout in an election.

Who will you be voting for, Winfield?

In terms of the Democrats, both MD and RI are important. If Cardin wins the nomination, the Democrats pretty much have MD in the bag, IMO, although the current polls don't necessarily reflect that. If Mfume is nominated, Maryland turns into a tossup and we've got problems.

The worst possible scenario for the Democrats would be for Mfume and Chafee to win, because that gives us two contested seats as opposed to possibly zero (if Laffey and Cardin win).

[Sam Spade]

Barring any polls being released before polls close tomorrow, in the three main races that matter:

RI Senate: Chafee will win, barely.
MD Senate:  Cardin will win, barely.
AZ-08: Graf will win, by more than barely.  Race will be one of top 3 Dem pickup opportunities (along w/IA-01 and TX-22)

Other races:  I doubt know enough about MN-05 to say much.

NY-11 primary will be won by Yassky, which will go to further disprove the Sharpton/Jackson notion that minority-drawn CDs must be represented by minorities.

Other races I really don't know enough about.

[sethm0]

 I'm going out on a limb here. No one in Rhode Island really has any clue how this race will turn out.

 Chafee: 52
 Laffey: 48

 Cardin: 49
 Mfume: 45
 Others: 6

[Sam Spade]

I would now posit that Cardin wins by a little more than slightly, based on the poll released by SUSA.

[Lincoln Republican]

The race that will have the biggest national impact is easily the Rhode Island GOP Senate nomination.

At last, Rhode Island has some national clout in an election.

Who will you be voting for, Winfield?

In terms of the Democrats, both MD and RI are important. If Cardin wins the nomination, the Democrats pretty much have MD in the bag, IMO, although the current polls don't necessarily reflect that. If Mfume is nominated, Maryland turns into a tossup and we've got problems.

The worst possible scenario for the Democrats would be for Mfume and Chafee to win, because that gives us two contested seats as opposed to possibly zero (if Laffey and Cardin win).

I support Chafee.  He at least has a chance to keep the seat Republican.  Okay, RINO, if you will, but nevertheless, this is important when it comes to which party has the majority in the Senate and the powerful committee chairmanships are determined.

My prediction, for what it's worth, not much, I still have no idea

Chafee        53%
Laffey          47%

[CultureKing]

my prediction:
RI: Chafee: 52% Laffey: 48%
MD: Cardin: 51% Mfume: 44%

[Eraserhead]

Any ground reports from Rhode Island? Whos campaign staff is crying?

[MarkWarner08]

I was wrong on Laffey and Craig; Yassky, Sarbanes, Cardin and Wynn are all winning.

[MarkWarner08]

I mistakenly deleted my predictions.

I had Craig winning in New Hampshire, Laffey in Rhode Island, Yassky and Hall in New York, Cardin, Janet Owens and Wynn in Maryland, Peg Lautenschlager and Steve Kagen in Wisconsin, Rainville and Welch in Vermont, Erlandson in Minnesota and Graf in Arizona.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well in MN-5 Ellison won, although with only 41%, and he was pretty much destroyed everywhere outside of Minneapolis. With those numbers he could be vulnerable to a primary challenge in the future. 2008 might be interesting (and I will be living in the district then).

Hatch defeated Lourey fairly easily (if the MN Sec of State site actually starts working properly I should try to compile a list of precincts won by Lourey.) In the Attorney General race, it appears that Lori Swanson has pulled an upset defeating Steve Kelley (who I voted for), this is even more surprising considering she was the least visible of the three running and has never held elected office. I wonder if it was due to women voters. Whatever the case this might make her a stronger candidate in the general, much as I dislike suburban voters and soccer moms they are an important demographic and she might play well with them, which is important since you can tell the GOP candidate Jeff Johnson is pandering to them with his nanny stating. More good news: Johnson only won with 58% against a joke opponent, meaning the GOP base might not be too happy with him.

Klobuchar and Kennedy easily defeated their joke primary opponents.

Swanson's victory by the way means I will be voting an overwhelmingly female ticket in November.

Men I'm voting for:

Mike Hatch (Governor)
Mark Ritchie (Secretary of State)
Tim Walz (US House)

Women I'm voting for:

Amy Klobuchar (Senate)
Judi Dutcher (Lt. Governor)
Rebecca Otto (State Auditor)
Lori Swanson (Attorney General)
Kathy Sheran (State Senate)
Kathy Bryneart (State House)

Anyone else voting a majority-women ticket?

[Deano963]

Is Judi Dutcher the one who used to be a republican?

[Sam Spade]

Well, Yassky was wrong; I thought he'd break 30% and get it, but turns out he fell short.

I did nail the three important ones, of course I gave no precentages. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Is Judi Dutcher the one who used to be a republican?

Yes

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just for kicks, here are the results from my precinct:

Registered voters: 1125
Total voters: 12
Voter turnout: 1.07%

Hey, I was more than 8% of the votes!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's... sad...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's another fun fact:

For Ward 5 of the city of Mankato, there was three candidates running in the primary (first round, top two face each other in the general election). They are Jack Considine, the incumbent, Michael Lagerquist, some guy I don't know about, and Adam Weigold, a former MSU student, College Republicans activist, editor of a conservative student paper and MSU Student President who was disqualified by the university on a technicality from serving.

Unsurprisingly Considine easily won, with 51.61% to Lagerquist's 35.78% (there'll still be a run off in November). What's interesting is Weigold's numbers. He got 12.61%, which is 43 votes. Yet he still won one precinct, P-13, with 18 votes, which is 66.67% of the total there. This precinct? MSU dorms. This normally unsuprisingly Democratic precinct votes for the guy running the most unabashedly right wing campaign. The reasons are obvious, but it's an interesting look into the student mindset (in all fairness I bet at least half of those weren't even aware of Weigold's politics and just voted for him because they heard he was a student).

Another interesting but not super-surprising fact is that Lourey actually won a county in the gubernatorial primary, her home county of Pine, with 50.5% to Hatch's 46.58%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's... sad...

Hey, it's better than the turnout at the Gage dorms in the last special election for Mankato mayor back in January. There was a total of 2 votes cast.

[Sam Spade]

BRTd, why are you consistently trying to prove to the rest of us that Mankato (and Minnesota in general) is full of ignorant idiots? 

Most of us already think Minnesota is a hick state populated by the likes of Jesse Ventura and ilikeverin.  Why do you insist on adding to this impression?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

BRTd, why are you consistently trying to prove to the rest of us that Mankato (and Minnesota in general) is full of ignorant idiots? 

Most of us already think Minnesota is a hick state populated by the likes of Jesse Ventura and ilikeverin.  Why do you insist on adding to this impression?

Just posting interesting facts. Voting oddities always interest me.

I don't think this has much to do about Minnesotans though as it is with apathetic college students and lack of competitive primaries.

But here we have a precinct that went from 197% (same day registration) turnout in the 2004 election to 1.07% turnout in the next election's primary. Quite a swing!