Analysis of House Races- 2004
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  Analysis of House Races- 2004
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #100 on: January 19, 2004, 09:02:46 PM »

DC Politics is the only site I've found that predicts every race, using a 5 star system 1* boringly safe to 5***** very exciting.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Ratings.htm

So far he has picked 4 seats to go from R to D (the two specials SD and KY-6) and GA 11 and GA12.  In contrast the only D seats to switch to R are three new TX seats, but the TX seats have not been updated since the final filings last Friday.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #101 on: January 20, 2004, 11:42:39 AM »

Sears bids to challenge (VA Congessman) Scott in a David vs. Goliath battle
Virginian-Pilot | Katrice Hardy

RICHMOND -- Not far from the state Capitol building where she made history three years ago, former Del. Winsome E. Sears announced Monday that she will challenge U.S. Rep. Robert C. "Bobby" Scott for the 3rd Congressional District seat this fall. Sears is a Republican. Scott is a Democrat.


Flanked by her three teenage daughters, her husband and Attorney General Jerry H. Kilgore, Sears said that Scott has lost touch with the beliefs of his constituents.

The congressional seat is in a majority-black district that stretches from Richmond to Norfolk. About 57 percent of its residents are black.

Scott believes that America should support same-sex marriages, Sears said. He also has voted against strengthening the nation's borders, she said.

"I want what you want, a voice in Washington that truly represents the people" Sears said. "I am saying that we can do better. We must do better. We will do better, and I will do better, and that's why I'm running."

The former Marine and Norfolk resident said her political track record qualifies her to serve in Congress. And she says she can challenge a "Goliath," Sears said, referring to how some people view Scott.

"Yes, that Goliath is big, but still he's just a man," Sears said.

Scott was unavailable for comment Monday.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #102 on: January 20, 2004, 11:45:13 AM »




good site.

So he is predicting the dems to pick up sezats int he house though?  Odd.


DC Politics is the only site I've found that predicts every race, using a 5 star system 1* boringly safe to 5***** very exciting.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Ratings.htm

So far he has picked 4 seats to go from R to D (the two specials SD and KY-6) and GA 11 and GA12.  In contrast the only D seats to switch to R are three new TX seats, but the TX seats have not been updated since the final filings last Friday.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #103 on: January 20, 2004, 11:51:05 AM »

He is a Democrat and his predictions usually lean that way.  He tries to be balanced though and will usually add other predictions (Crystal Ball, etc.) on the page.  However that usually just makes his bias more obvious Smiley




good site.

So he is predicting the dems to pick up sezats int he house though?  Odd.


DC Politics is the only site I've found that predicts every race, using a 5 star system 1* boringly safe to 5***** very exciting.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Ratings.htm

So far he has picked 4 seats to go from R to D (the two specials SD and KY-6) and GA 11 and GA12.  In contrast the only D seats to switch to R are three new TX seats, but the TX seats have not been updated since the final filings last Friday.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #104 on: January 20, 2004, 12:06:55 PM »

Yeah I like Crystal ball about the best.  seems fair.  Not sure if you are signed up for Sabato's e-mails, but he has updated presidential race thoughts after yesterday.  Plus delegate counts and such.


He is a Democrat and his predictions usually lean that way.  He tries to be balanced though and will usually add other predictions (Crystal Ball, etc.) on the page.  However that usually just makes his bias more obvious Smiley




good site.

So he is predicting the dems to pick up sezats int he house though?  Odd.


DC Politics is the only site I've found that predicts every race, using a 5 star system 1* boringly safe to 5***** very exciting.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Ratings.htm

So far he has picked 4 seats to go from R to D (the two specials SD and KY-6) and GA 11 and GA12.  In contrast the only D seats to switch to R are three new TX seats, but the TX seats have not been updated since the final filings last Friday.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #105 on: January 20, 2004, 12:34:29 PM »

Lampson is not running against DeLay.
Were's the drama gone dammit!
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #106 on: January 20, 2004, 01:20:31 PM »

yeah no chance for a whooping! Smiley

Lampson is not running against DeLay.
Were's the drama gone dammit!
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opebo
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« Reply #107 on: January 21, 2004, 09:41:34 AM »

I'm embarrassed to admit I hail from Gephart's district.  Alas, I think its safe Democrat, but does anyone know which Dem is going to be installed now that he's going away?  (btw, what a relief)
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #108 on: January 27, 2004, 10:34:51 AM »

Sessions, Frost keep gloves on
 
1st joint appearance by District 32 candidates is a polite peek at issues


08:29 AM CST on Monday, January 26, 2004
 

By DAVE LEVINTHAL / The Dallas Morning News
 


In detailing their divisions on civil liberties and the role of the federal government, Congressmen Pete Sessions and Martin Frost on Sunday foreshadowed the key issues of their nationally notable campaign-in-the-making.

Their participation in a political issues breakfast forum at Temple Emanu-El in Dallas marked the first time the congressmen appeared together in public since Mr. Frost, a 13-term Arlington Democrat, announced Jan. 16 that he would challenge Mr. Sessions, a four-term Dallas Republican, for the District 32 seat.

"The poorest of the poor have color TVs ... indoor plumbing," Mr. Sessions said, disputing a question about the economic gap between the wealthiest and poorest Americans becoming historically wide.

Government should help poor people through a combination of tax cuts and economic incentives that keep interest rates low and create quality jobs for them, Mr. Sessions said. He also said he would support a flat tax over graduated taxes based on income.

Mr. Frost said that the poorest Americans often need direct government intervention to succeed.

"Government has a role to play. We want no one left behind in this country," Mr. Frost said.

Both congressmen said they support, in principle, the USA Patriot Act, which Congress passed months after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks to combat foreign terrorism. Critics say the government uses its provisions to violate U.S. citizens' civil rights.

"We cannot let our country become a police state," Mr. Frost said, adding that law enforcement agencies have sometimes abused the act.

"It's in the public interest and the public good," Mr. Sessions said of the Patriot Act. "I don't think we have something to fear."

They also differed on health care issues, with Mr. Frost panning the recent passage of a Republican-backed plan as a failure to adequately lower prescription drug costs. Mr. Sessions supports the plan.

But considering this race's importance and their disagreements, the joint appearance was a genteel affair, at times bordering on breezy.

Mr. Frost and Mr. Sessions mugged together with nervous Boy Scouts for camera-toting fathers. They chatted off-microphone before and after the discussion.

And overt campaign rhetoric? Save for a couple of redistricting jokes delivered by Mr. Frost, it was practically nonexistent, at least in the presence of more than 250 people at the early-morning eggs-and-orange juice forum.

"This was official business, not campaigning," Mr. Sessions said, adding that he agreed to participate in October, three months before Mr. Frost announced his intentions. "It was casual, educational – an opportunity to inform."

Said Mr. Frost: "This is just an opportunity for [voters] to get to know who we are."

Statements such as these are a steep departure from the congressmen's virulent talk of two weeks ago. Then Mr. Sessions deemed Mr. Frost a "hard-core liberal," and Mr. Frost promised that "this will be one of the most contested, interesting races across the entire country."

After the forum, Mr. Frost twice noted that he voted for the Republican-backed "No Child Left Behind" education act, while Mr. Sessions did not.

Mr. Sessions, in turn, proclaimed, "I have no Achilles' heel" among the racial, ethnic and religious groups in Republican-leaning 32nd District, which includes sections of Oak Cliff, Irving, Richardson, North Dallas, University Park and Highland Park.

"My wife is Hispanic. I'm close with the Jewish and Asian populations here," Mr. Sessions said. "We will split the Jewish vote."

Mr. Frost is the only Jewish Texan ever elected to Congress. Mr. Sessions is a Methodist.

Both men predicted that they would raise and spend at least $2.5 million each during the campaign – a conservative estimate, political consultants say. Mr. Sessions said he would report about $750,000 cash on hand when federal campaign finance filings become public at month's end. Mr. Frost will report about $700,000, he said.

When a federal court upheld the Legislature's congressional redistricting map this month, Mr. Frost found himself drawn out of his domain, District 24.

Can he win District 32?

"No," said Stephen Shore, a temple member and Frost supporter, who then backed off his prediction. "It's a long, hard fight between now and November. We'll see, won't we?"
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #109 on: January 28, 2004, 08:51:13 AM »

Yeah I like Crystal ball about the best.  seems fair.  
Not sure about "like" or "fair", but Fairvote.org have been predicting every house race since 1996 (inclusive) and have got it wrong exactly once. They have a too close to call option, which makes that easier...
They also have expected minimum margins, which usually include only a small handful of errors.
You'd have to look through a lot of talk on election reform that you might not like though...As that is their main aim.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #110 on: January 28, 2004, 09:09:29 AM »

Fairvote.org have got some good stuff on there site.
"Too close to call" is essential for making accurate predictions.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #111 on: January 28, 2004, 09:43:30 AM »

Fairvote.org have got some good stuff on there site.
"Too close to call" is essential for making accurate predictions.
Make every prediction 'too close to call'... Smiley
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #112 on: January 28, 2004, 12:24:38 PM »

I do that anyway Smiley
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #113 on: January 29, 2004, 05:52:56 AM »

Correction on Fairvote.org
Problem is, I used that site a lot in 2002 and hadn't come back since. They posted a preliminary prediction for 2004 in December 2002. Their predictions are based purely on a mathematical model, so that's possible. However, predictions would have to change wherever
- an incumbent resigns, dies, retires, is defeated in a primary
- the contender also has a record of running for the house from that district
- and of course, when a state gets re-gerrymandered.
They said they'd update the prediction as these things happen. They haven't got started doing it yet...They'll probably do well in time before the election, but as of the moments their predictions are in a number of cases worthless.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #114 on: January 29, 2004, 08:43:04 PM »

It's official. Jindal wants to start back on the road to statewide office in Louisiana...

Jindal to seek Vitter's congressional seat
The Associated Press
29 Jan 2004
By DOUG SIMPSON

METAIRIE, La. (AP) — Former state and federal health official Bobby Jindal said Thursday he will run for the U.S. House seat now held by fellow Republican David Vitter, who is running for the Senate.

Vitter, who hopes to succeed retiring Democrat John Breaux, joined Jindal and endorsed his candidacy during a news conference at Grace King High School.

Jindal, who lost to Kathleen Blanco in last year's runoff in the race for governor, recently announced that he was moving his family from Baton Rouge to Kenner in the 1st Congressional District.

"When God closes one door, he opens another. I understand there's a job opening here," Jindal said.

The district covers much of suburban New Orleans and is a Republican stronghold.

State Rep. Steve Scalise, R-Jefferson, has also declared his candidacy for the seat and Rep. A.G. Crowe, R-Pearl River, is expected to announce whether he will run on Monday.

A spokesman for former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke, now serving a federal prison term for bilking supporters and cheating on his taxes, said Duke might also make the race, although it would be difficult to raise sufficient campaign money. Duke finished third when he ran for the seat in a 1999 election.

"I don't think David Duke represents the best of what this district has to offer," Jindal, the son of Indian immigrants, said when asked about a possible candidacy by the white supremacist.

Jindal said he would offer an official platform later but said he already knows that he will focus on five areas:

_ support of President Bush's war on terrorism.

_ health care improvements.

_ controlling government spending.

_ social issues including his anti-abortion stance.

_ promoting improvements in the district including attracting jobs, protecting military bases, flood control and coastal erosion.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #115 on: January 31, 2004, 08:11:15 AM »

Dunn says she won't seek return to Congress
Seattle Times
Friday, January 30, 2004
Associated Press


OLYMPIA — U.S. Rep. Jennifer Dunn, Washington state's senior Republican in Congress and a favorite of the Bush White House, told The Associated Press tonight that she's retiring from politics.

Dunn, 61, who had been courted by President Bush to run for the U.S. Senate this fall, said she has decided to serve out her sixth House term and then retire from public life.

She cited family considerations — she's newly remarried — and a desire for one more career after politics. She endorsed no successor in her Republican-leaning 8th District in Seattle's eastern suburbs.


"It's time for me to move on, probably to the private sector," she said in an interview. "It's hard. It's hard to think of giving it up. It has been such a positive thing in my life. But at some time, I will have to. This feels like the time."

Dunn was chairwoman of the state Republican Party for a decade before winning her congressional seat in 1992. The Bellevue native was regularly re-elected by large margins, and had been a heavy favorite to win again this year. She already had amassed a warchest of about $1.5 million.

------------------

Info on the probable Dem nominee from last September. This will probably be a Dem pick-up.

Dunn draws challenger from high-tech world: Mercer Island attorney running for U.S. House
King County Journal
9-3-03
Chris Winters


Former computer industry executive Alex Alben has launched a bid to unseat U.S. Rep. Jennifer Dunn in the 8th congressional district. Dunn has held the seat for 12 years.

The 45-year-old Mercer Island resident said he'll emphasize jobs and economic growth in his campaign.

Alben said he has the right combination of business sense and progressive values that will resonate in the 8th, which ranges from Bellevue to Mount Rainier National Park, including Issaquah, Sammamish, Mercer Island and part of Redmond and Renton.

He's an intellectual property attorney who spent 10 years in the local high-tech industry, most recently as vice president of public policy at RealNetworks Inc. He also favors of environmental protection and women's rights.

``That mix really describes that district, and that's me,'' Alben said.

He's also a mountain climber, an apt metaphor given the competition he's going up against.

Dunn, 61, has handily won re-election in the largely Republican district, defeating Democrat Heidi Behrens-Benedict, a Bellevue interior designer, in each of the past three elections.

An influential senior member of her caucus, she has serving as a member of the Ways and Means Committee, vice chairwoman of the new Homeland Security Committee and a member of the caucus campaign team. She was the top choice of her party and the White House to challenge Sen. Patty Murray next year, but she declined. ``It just makes sense, when you look at where you can best use your skills, influence, time and clout,'' Dunn explained at the time.

Dunn also is a seasoned fund-raiser who is well-connected to the Bush Administration. As of June 30, she had approximately $1.1 million in the bank.

Alben thinks Dunn is vulnerable this time.

``She's a party loyalist. She voted with Tom DeLay 95 percent of the time in the last Congress,'' he said, referring to the GOP House majority leader.

By contrast, he said he's not a politician, and would do what's best for the district, regardless of what the party chairman thinks.

``I come at things from a business point of view and from being a dad with school age kids,'' he said. Dunn has two adult children.

Alben said he plans to spend $2 million on the campaign, but didn't directly answer when asked if he'll self-fund the effort, as his old RealNetworks colleague Maria Cantwell did in her winning Senate bid in 2000.

He said he wrote out a $100,000 check to kickstart the campaign.

Danielle Holland, Dunn's spokeswoman, declined to comment on Alben's race.

Alben is also staking out campaign territory in education, proposing to bring federal funds to Washington to support students seeking advanced degrees in certain sectors, fully funding Head Start programs, and expanding scholarship programs.

``I am dancing on my desk over Alex Alben,'' said Paul Berendt, the state Democratic Party chairman. ``He's a five-star candidate and he's just the type of person we really need to win in this district.''

Berendt said that this year would be the year of the nonpolitician, and that despite Dunn's strengths, voters will be looking for a fresh perspective.

``It's not going to be easy to defeat her, but I believe people are tired of politicians who are putting their own careers in front of the district,'' Berendt said, referring to rumors of Dunn seeking lobbying jobs.

``We just believe that the Republican Congress is out of touch with people,'' Berendt said. ``We need to get people to represent us who are in touch with the real world.''

For others, Dunn's hold on her seat is not in doubt.

``Anybody looking to run against Jennifer Dunn must have a political death wish,'' said Brett Bader, a Republican strategist with Madison Communications.

``She's an outstanding fund-raiser,'' Bader said, ``Her popularity is a combination of popularity at home and popularity back East among the powers that be.''

``The mountain is too tall to climb,'' he said.

Alben is a graduate of Stanford University and its law school. A New York native, he's been in Washington 11 years, and has worked as general counsel and vice president for business development at Paul Allen's StarWave and most recently as an executive at RealNetworks. His wife, Ellen, is a lawyer and they have two children.


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jravnsbo
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« Reply #116 on: February 01, 2004, 02:24:25 PM »

said heavily republican district, so safe seat right?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #117 on: February 02, 2004, 03:28:26 AM »

said heavily republican district, so safe seat right?
I suppose that means in terms of registration. We're talking the rich eastern edge of the Seattle-Tacoma area here. Traditional Republican territory, but voted for Al Gore in 2000. Not exactly a safe seat then. Not a certain Dem pickup either, though. It should depend on who runs for the Republicans.
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goobergunch
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« Reply #118 on: February 04, 2004, 09:18:50 AM »

Tauzin Quits Chairmanship, Will Retire From House

By Frank Ahrens
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, February 4, 2004; Page A09

W.J. "Billy" Tauzin (La.), one of the most powerful Republicans in the House, will not seek reelection when his 12th term expires at the end of this year and will vacate the chairmanship of the Energy and Commerce Committee effective Feb. 16.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10138-2004Feb3.html

LA-3 voted for Bush 52%-45% in 2000.  It's an ancestrally Democratic district, but culturally conservative.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #119 on: February 04, 2004, 10:50:03 AM »

LA-3 is gainable... It was Gore's 2nd best district in LA in 2000.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #120 on: February 04, 2004, 11:34:20 AM »

DC's Political Report predictions:

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jravnsbo
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« Reply #121 on: February 04, 2004, 05:36:15 PM »

so dems are going to pick up seats int he house?  I don't think so.

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minionofmidas
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« Reply #122 on: February 05, 2004, 07:55:40 AM »

The dcpoliticalreport predictions seem to be a little bit biased towards the Dems (which is not to say that these are Dem-made predictions, I don't know about that). They also predict no change in the senate.
In the House, they predict that the Dems will keep all 5 TX districts that are getting seriously fought over, giving the state a 17-15 Rep delegation. This is possible but in my opinion unlikely - as is the Reps gaining all five of 'em.
If it came to pass it would be highly ironic - all the TX gerrymander would have achieved is disillusioning a few people about politics, punishing the city of Austin for being so friggin liberal and gaining one seat. Oh yeah, and finally getting Ralph Hall to acknowledging he's republican.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #123 on: February 05, 2004, 08:24:06 AM »

Sachs' is a Democrat but the site is quite balanced and the only time any bias appears is when a race is a 50-50 tossup.
Unlike most stuff on the internet...

I'm not letting anyone say anything nasty about him as he represented miners with silicosis in several court cases.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #124 on: February 05, 2004, 08:27:09 AM »

Sachs' is a Democrat but the site is quite balanced and the only time any bias appears is when a race is a 50-50 tossup.
Unlike most stuff on the internet...

I'm not letting anyone say anything nasty about him as he represented miners with silicosis in several court cases.
That's good.
I didn't mean as compared to typical partisan spinster stuff. Of course it's way more balanced than that. It's just that I considered his predictions as slightly overoptimistic (or overpessimistic, had he been a Republican)
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