Farage wins UKIP leadership election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BBC article

If anyone can capitalise on the potential for a European-style "populist" party, it's Farage IMO.
He's already said that UKIP intend to take local elections seriously for a change.

[Michael Z]

A f***wit leading a bunch of f***wits. Makes sense.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A f***wit leading a bunch of f***wits. Makes sense.

Sadly there are enough f***wits out there to enable the part of f***wits to do quite well.
They could end up as a sort of BNP-lite.

[Michael Z]

A f***wit leading a bunch of f***wits. Makes sense.

Sadly there are enough f***wits out there to enable the part of f***wits to do quite well.
They could end up as a sort of BNP-lite.

You're right. Like I said before, they're basically Britain's version of the Vlaams Blok or Austria's "Freedom" Party, because, ideologically, there really is very little difference between them (anti-EU? Check. Anti-immigration? Check. Based on provincial, middle-class fears and prejudices? Check).

[Umengus]

Vlaams belang (ex vlaams blok): 25% and first party in Belgium.
FPO: 26% (not today of course...)

I think that there are lots of UK voters to catch with an anti-immigration, anti-muslim and anti-europe stances.

[Gustaf]

I also disagree that UKIP is similar to Vlaams Belang or BNP.

[Bono]

Vlaams belang (ex vlaams blok): 25% and first party in Belgium.

Is that what they're currently polling, or the result they got in the last elections to the flemish parliament?

[Umengus]

Vlaams belang (ex vlaams blok): 25% and first party in Belgium.

Is that what they're currently polling, or the result they got in the last elections to the flemish parliament?

Results at last elections (2004).
In october, it will happen local elections and Vlaams belang should get a very very good result.

"Slowed growth in Flemish Interest support
12 September 2006

BRUSSELS — While it is widely expected the extreme-right Flemish Interest will increase its share of the vote at the October local elections, that growth is not unstoppable, a study has found.

Between March and September of this year, the Flemish Interest's growth slowed somewhat, an inter-university internet survey has indicated.

A number of survey respondents who said in March they would vote for the Flemish Interest, changed their minds by the end of June, newspaper 'De Standaard' reported on Tuesday.

Nevertheless, the Flemish Interest (Vlaams Belang) is still set to increase its electoral representation compared with the 2000 elections, but the margin is smaller than expected several months ago.


"The trend is robustly visible and occurring in all of the studied cities," political scientist Stefan Walgrave said.

Respondents who had preferences for other parties also changed their minds, but with less consistency to indicate a trend.

The study did not investigate why the Flemish Interest lost support, but the turnaround took place when the party was under great pressure.
 
On 11 May, between the first and second survey period, the racist murders in Antwerp took place, placing the Flemish Interest on the defensive, partly due to the criticism from the parents of the murdered Luna.
 
And then there was also the controversy over the party's election posters and the announcement of the pro-tolerance 0110 concerts.

The fact that support for the Flemish Interest continued to decline in September can be blamed on the fact that public opinion always has a delayed reaction to events.
 
A second reason for the electoral swing is the success of Yves Leterme and the Christian Democrat CD&V-New Flemish Alliance NV-A. Surveys showed that the voters who turned their back on the Flemish Interest swung to the CD&V and NV-A coalition."
http://www.expatica.com/actual/article.asp?subchannel_id=48&story_id=32991


Polls have always underestimed Vlaams belang...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I also disagree that UKIP is similar to Vlaams Belang or BNP.

I've no idea how similer they are or are not to Vlaams Belang. As for the BNP... it's complicated.
Yes, UKIP does not have it's roots in Neo-Nazism (something the BNP has, in public at least, tried to abandon. More Fascist than Nazi now).

But...

You can (more-or-less) divide the people that voted for UKIP in the last Euro elections into three groups; people who are strongly anti-E.U, people who just wanted to cast a protest vote and people who wanted a party to vent their racist (sorry "nationalist") feelings through, and who didn't want the stigma that comes with voting for the BNP. Hence "BNP-lite".

The first two groups drew from all major parties (and LibDem voters are especially common in the first, btw) and will not vote for UKIP in normal elections. This group probably made up the bulk of the UKIP vote in the South West and the East Midlands.
The third group are overwhelmingly Tory voters in normal elections, and are largely found in white collar, white flight suburbs (especially around the eastern edges of the London metropolitan area, but also around the edges of Birmingham/the Black Country and around the edges of some East Midlands cities). This group seems more open to the possibility of voting for UKIP in non-E.U elections, and if UKIP puts enough effort into targeting them...

[Gustaf]

I also disagree that UKIP is similar to Vlaams Belang or BNP.

I've no idea how similer they are or are not to Vlaams Belang. As for the BNP... it's complicated.
Yes, UKIP does not have it's roots in Neo-Nazism (something the BNP has, in public at least, tried to abandon. More Fascist than Nazi now).

But...

You can (more-or-less) divide the people that voted for UKIP in the last Euro elections into three groups; people who are strongly anti-E.U, people who just wanted to cast a protest vote and people who wanted a party to vent their racist (sorry "nationalist") feelings through, and who didn't want the stigma that comes with voting for the BNP. Hence "BNP-lite".

The first two groups drew from all major parties (and LibDem voters are especially common in the first, btw) and will not vote for UKIP in normal elections. This group probably made up the bulk of the UKIP vote in the South West and the East Midlands.
The third group are overwhelmingly Tory voters in normal elections, and are largely found in white collar, white flight suburbs (especially around the eastern edges of the London metropolitan area, but also around the edges of Birmingham/the Black Country and around the edges of some East Midlands cities). This group seems more open to the possibility of voting for UKIP in non-E.U elections, and if UKIP puts enough effort into targeting them...

Vlaams Belang's vice chairman had to resign after denying the Holocaust. Otherwise, interesting analysis. My point was mostly that I don't think the UKIP leaders themselves are racist, though their voters may as far as I know well be. I would say though that there is a difference between racism on the one hand and xenophobia on the other. Not to condone the latter, but it isn't as bad.