(Internal D) Harstad Strategic Research: AZ Sen. Kyl (R) 47%, Pederson (D) 41%
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  (Internal D) Harstad Strategic Research: AZ Sen. Kyl (R) 47%, Pederson (D) 41%
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Author Topic: (Internal D) Harstad Strategic Research: AZ Sen. Kyl (R) 47%, Pederson (D) 41%  (Read 1967 times)
Adlai Stevenson
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« on: September 12, 2006, 09:42:17 AM »

New Poll: Arizona Senator by Harstad Strategic Research 12.9.06

Summary: R: 47%, D: 41%, U: 12%, M.O.E: 3.5%

Poll Source URL:
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/local/articles/0911azindc11.html

Pederson is known by 68% of Arizona voters, an improvement from the beginning of the year when only voters in single digits knew who he was.  Kyl's approval is at 47%.


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ATFFL
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2006, 12:54:03 PM »

Wow.  Down 6 in the internal you go public with?  That is seriously not good.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2006, 03:43:52 PM »

Wow.  Down 6 in the internal you go public with?  That is seriously not good.

They need to fake being competitive.
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True Democrat
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« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2006, 09:38:26 PM »

Oh, so Kyl is actually leading by about 15%
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2006, 12:09:15 AM »

Oh, so Kyl is actually leading by about 15%

More like 10%.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2006, 09:41:43 AM »

Average of four last polls in Arizona: Kyl leads by 14.25%. That's closer to 15 than 10, I'd say.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2006, 10:01:54 AM »

Average of four last polls in Arizona: Kyl leads by 14.25%. That's closer to 15 than 10, I'd say.

Does that include this one?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #7 on: September 13, 2006, 02:58:37 PM »

Average of four last polls in Arizona: Kyl leads by 14.25%. That's closer to 15 than 10, I'd say.

Does that include this one?

No, internals don't count.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #8 on: September 13, 2006, 08:38:05 PM »

Average of four last polls in Arizona: Kyl leads by 14.25%. That's closer to 15 than 10, I'd say.

Can you show your work?
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Colin
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« Reply #9 on: September 13, 2006, 08:44:19 PM »

Average of four last polls in Arizona: Kyl leads by 14.25%. That's closer to 15 than 10, I'd say.

Can you show your work?

I didn't know we were back in math class.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #10 on: September 13, 2006, 08:46:44 PM »
« Edited: September 14, 2006, 01:21:36 AM by Eraserhead »

Average of four last polls in Arizona: Kyl leads by 14.25%. That's closer to 15 than 10, I'd say.

Can you show your work?

I didn't know we were back in math class.

Well now you do.

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Gustaf
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« Reply #11 on: September 14, 2006, 04:22:32 AM »

Average of four last polls in Arizona: Kyl leads by 14.25%. That's closer to 15 than 10, I'd say.

Can you show your work?

I didn't know we were back in math class.

Well now you do.



You're making it sound like I did something very odd...

AZU: Kyl +10
Rasmussen: Kyl +17
Rocky Mountain: Kyl +18
SUSA: Kyl+12

12+18+17+10=57

57/4=14.25

There you go. You can of course argue that AZU and Rocky Mountain are two crappy polls and throw them out, in which case the race becomes Kyl +14.5%.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #12 on: September 14, 2006, 05:43:55 AM »

Average of four last polls in Arizona: Kyl leads by 14.25%. That's closer to 15 than 10, I'd say.

Can you show your work?

I didn't know we were back in math class.

Well now you do.



You're making it sound like I did something very odd...

AZU: Kyl +10
Rasmussen: Kyl +17
Rocky Mountain: Kyl +18
SUSA: Kyl+12

12+18+17+10=57

57/4=14.25

There you go. You can of course argue that AZU and Rocky Mountain are two crappy polls and throw them out, in which case the race becomes Kyl +14.5%.

Cool I was just wondering. I guess Penderson is pretty much done.
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PrisonerOfHope
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« Reply #13 on: September 14, 2006, 09:40:03 PM »

This race is folowing the pattern of TN, and I expect NV to folllow the pattern as well.  The incumbent in a state that demographicly leans to their party starts with a ridiculously large lead, only to have it evaporate to something reasonable come Labor Day.  These races are more likely to tighten than become blowouts.  The way things are going for Republicans this year, anyone dismissing the signs is whistling past the grave. 
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adam
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« Reply #14 on: September 16, 2006, 12:10:28 PM »

ZZZzzzZZZ

Pederson's finished, he has been for awhile.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #15 on: September 16, 2006, 06:17:36 PM »

Pederson is the Ed Bernstein of this cycle. Kyl win win by double digits.
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