TN Sen: SUSA sez Ford leads Corker 48-45

[Downwinder]

If Ford's momentum continues like this, he'll win by 20 points in November.  If this race is all I am expecting it to be, it should have books written about it.  Go Ford!!

[Eraserhead]

If Ford's momentum continues like this, he'll win by 20 points in November.  If this race is all I am expecting it to be, it should have books written about it.  Go Ford!!

Jeez 20 points? As much as I'd love that its not going to happen.

[Gustaf]

Interesting how three races almost nobody expected to be close (TN,VA,NJ) are all basically tossups now.

People did expect NJ to be close.

I said "almost" (and notice I said almost) because most of the people I talked to on here did not expect it to be close and you'll notice on any of the polls on here super majorites expect (or at least expected) Menendez to win.

But that's because most people here are Democrats, and dumb Democrats at that. They expect Democrats to win all races that are remotely competitive. The same goes for the average prediction maps. You have to exclude all the moron's predictions and look at what the reasonable people here predict.

[Eraserhead]

Interesting how three races almost nobody expected to be close (TN,VA,NJ) are all basically tossups now.

People did expect NJ to be close.

I said "almost" (and notice I said almost) because most of the people I talked to on here did not expect it to be close and you'll notice on any of the polls on here super majorites expect (or at least expected) Menendez to win.

But that's because most people here are Democrats, and dumb Democrats at that. They expect Democrats to win all races that are remotely competitive. The same goes for the average prediction maps. You have to exclude all the moron's predictions and look at what the reasonable people here predict.

Yeah but you also have to look at history and the history of who the state votes for and this state generally votes for Democrats especially in recent history. Ford is and or was the underdog for partly the same reason in TN (granted they have a popular Democratic Governor down there now).

Also I was just saying most people thought NJ wouldn't be close. I wasn't saying they were right or wrong to think that way, I'm just saying they did.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I agree the Dems aren't going to sweep all the competetive races, the best the Dems are going to do is net gain 3-4 seats. The state haven't voted for a Dem senator since 88 and Bredeson is much more conserv than Ford is.

[Nym90]

I agree the Dems aren't going to sweep all the competetive races, the best the Dems are going to do is net gain 3-4 seats. The state haven't voted for a Dem senator since 88 and Bredeson is much more conserv than Ford is.

Technically 1990 (Al Gore).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yea, but my other point remains they haven't sent a Dem senator in a long time . I think Ford can win but it is an uphill battle.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This race always had the potential to be close - huge warchest, name recognition (even if it is not always positive).

NJ was going to be close because the Dems have taken the place for granted of late... it might bite them on the arse.

I've moved both races into toss-up - with NJ leaning D and TN leaning R (purely based on demographics). Plus the UD in both races are over 10% which makes things harder.

[Gustaf]

Interesting how three races almost nobody expected to be close (TN,VA,NJ) are all basically tossups now.

People did expect NJ to be close.

I said "almost" (and notice I said almost) because most of the people I talked to on here did not expect it to be close and you'll notice on any of the polls on here super majorites expect (or at least expected) Menendez to win.

But that's because most people here are Democrats, and dumb Democrats at that. They expect Democrats to win all races that are remotely competitive. The same goes for the average prediction maps. You have to exclude all the moron's predictions and look at what the reasonable people here predict.

Yeah but you also have to look at history and the history of who the state votes for and this state generally votes for Democrats especially in recent history. Ford is and or was the underdog for partly the same reason in TN (granted they have a popular Democratic Governor down there now).

Also I was just saying most people thought NJ wouldn't be close. I wasn't saying they were right or wrong to think that way, I'm just saying they did.

I know all these things, my point is that the conventional wisdom should not be viewed as the same thing as the conventional bias of the forum.

[Eraserhead]

Interesting how three races almost nobody expected to be close (TN,VA,NJ) are all basically tossups now.

People did expect NJ to be close.

I said "almost" (and notice I said almost) because most of the people I talked to on here did not expect it to be close and you'll notice on any of the polls on here super majorites expect (or at least expected) Menendez to win.

But that's because most people here are Democrats, and dumb Democrats at that. They expect Democrats to win all races that are remotely competitive. The same goes for the average prediction maps. You have to exclude all the moron's predictions and look at what the reasonable people here predict.

Yeah but you also have to look at history and the history of who the state votes for and this state generally votes for Democrats especially in recent history. Ford is and or was the underdog for partly the same reason in TN (granted they have a popular Democratic Governor down there now).

Also I was just saying most people thought NJ wouldn't be close. I wasn't saying they were right or wrong to think that way, I'm just saying they did.

I know all these things, my point is that the conventional wisdom should not be viewed as the same thing as the conventional bias of the forum.

Well how do you know which I was referring to?

[Gustaf]

Interesting how three races almost nobody expected to be close (TN,VA,NJ) are all basically tossups now.

People did expect NJ to be close.

I said "almost" (and notice I said almost) because most of the people I talked to on here did not expect it to be close and you'll notice on any of the polls on here super majorites expect (or at least expected) Menendez to win.

But that's because most people here are Democrats, and dumb Democrats at that. They expect Democrats to win all races that are remotely competitive. The same goes for the average prediction maps. You have to exclude all the moron's predictions and look at what the reasonable people here predict.

Yeah but you also have to look at history and the history of who the state votes for and this state generally votes for Democrats especially in recent history. Ford is and or was the underdog for partly the same reason in TN (granted they have a popular Democratic Governor down there now).

Also I was just saying most people thought NJ wouldn't be close. I wasn't saying they were right or wrong to think that way, I'm just saying they did.

I know all these things, my point is that the conventional wisdom should not be viewed as the same thing as the conventional bias of the forum.

Well how do you know which I was referring to?

The one that is relevant of course. I guess I may have been wrong about that.

[ottermax]

I think that Ford will win this race by a close margin, but New Jersey will go Republican.

[MarkWarner08]

I think Ford and Kean will both lose. I love Ford but I just don't think he can overcome the RNC's smears. Kean will lose because of Menendez's $$$ and because eventually, the public will realized that the former Governor is not running for the Senate.