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Author Topic: Rhode Island Senate Primary official thread  (Read 13437 times)
sethm0
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« Reply #25 on: September 12, 2006, 05:21:15 pm »
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 1. The new word form RI is that turnout is suprisingly low. Conventional wisdom says this benefits Laffey.

 2. Laffey is also independently wealthy, to the tune of about 13 million. I don't know if he'd be willing to spend his own money in the gneral like Chafee would, but it's possible.
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« Reply #26 on: September 12, 2006, 05:22:38 pm »
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RI has an open primary, us Chafee supporters better hope that alot of Independents are voting.
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sethm0
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« Reply #27 on: September 12, 2006, 05:25:17 pm »
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  Beginning at 9:15 eastern you can watch the results come in at http://www.elections.ri.gov/
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #28 on: September 12, 2006, 05:43:05 pm »
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Just as a little FYI, the supporting of Chafee by the national party will probably have little effect monetarily on the other Senate seats that Republicans are trying to hold this year.

Santorum (PA) certainly can self-fund.  So can Talent (MO), DeWine (OH) and Burns (MT), though DeWine and Burns perhaps a little less so.  Down the scale, Allen (VA) certainly can and Corker (TN) will undoubtedly be spending his own money soon.

Where this has any effect is on potential Republican pick ups, like Kean (NJ), Steele (MD) even though he has a lead in cash-on-hand right now and Kennedy (MN).
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« Reply #29 on: September 12, 2006, 06:03:49 pm »
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Let's see who gets to lose to Whitehouse.
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sethm0
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« Reply #30 on: September 12, 2006, 06:14:15 pm »
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Just as a little FYI, the supporting of Chafee by the national party will probably have little effect monetarily on the other Senate seats that Republicans are trying to hold this year.

Santorum (PA) certainly can self-fund.  So can Talent (MO), DeWine (OH) and Burns (MT), though DeWine and Burns perhaps a little less so.  Down the scale, Allen (VA) certainly can and Corker (TN) will undoubtedly be spending his own money soon.

Where this has any effect is on potential Republican pick ups, like Kean (NJ), Steele (MD) even though he has a lead in cash-on-hand right now and Kennedy (MN).


 This is true, though the NRSC has the added benefit of being able to run really nasty negative ads without the Republican candidate having to say they approve of the message. So this makes NRSC money at least somewhat important.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #31 on: September 12, 2006, 06:27:36 pm »
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Just as a little FYI, the supporting of Chafee by the national party will probably have little effect monetarily on the other Senate seats that Republicans are trying to hold this year.

Santorum (PA) certainly can self-fund.  So can Talent (MO), DeWine (OH) and Burns (MT), though DeWine and Burns perhaps a little less so.  Down the scale, Allen (VA) certainly can and Corker (TN) will undoubtedly be spending his own money soon.

Where this has any effect is on potential Republican pick ups, like Kean (NJ), Steele (MD) even though he has a lead in cash-on-hand right now and Kennedy (MN).


 This is true, though the NRSC has the added benefit of being able to run really nasty negative ads without the Republican candidate having to say they approve of the message. So this makes NRSC money at least somewhat important.

True, but remember with the McCain-Feingold laws in place, and with the FCC's approval, you can no longer personally run ads on television or radio (fortunately, not the internet) criticizing members of Congress for the last 60 days of a campaign.  Therefore, the incumbents have less to worry about relying on outside groups to fund commercials than do challengers.
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Deano963
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« Reply #32 on: September 12, 2006, 07:09:32 pm »
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Just as a little FYI, the supporting of Chafee by the national party will probably have little effect monetarily on the other Senate seats that Republicans are trying to hold this year.

Santorum (PA) certainly can self-fund.  So can Talent (MO), DeWine (OH) and Burns (MT), though DeWine and Burns perhaps a little less so.  Down the scale, Allen (VA) certainly can and Corker (TN) will undoubtedly be spending his own money soon.

Where this has any effect is on potential Republican pick ups, like Kean (NJ), Steele (MD) even though he has a lead in cash-on-hand right now and Kennedy (MN).

This is not really true at all. When you say "self-fund", you make it sound as if they are wealthy and can personally bankroll their campaigns. That is not the case.

Talent and Dewine may have larger campaign accounts than their challengers, true, but not so much that they can weather the $7 million in ad buys the DSCC has planned for each of these races without help from the NRSC. It makes a lot of difference if the national party dosen't have to sqaunder money on Chaffee and spend it on other races instead.
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I'm still going out on a limb here and predicting that Tom Vilsack will eventually become the Dem nominee. 

The others--Edwards, Hillary, and Obama, have peaked WAY too early

THE BUCKS ARE GOING TO THE FINAL FOUR!!!

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« Reply #33 on: September 12, 2006, 07:12:48 pm »
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Considering that the Republican Party has already declared a Laffey victory to be paramount to a Democratic victory in the general, does anybody else get the hunch that many Dems may have voted for Laffey, leading to the widely reported shortage of disaffiliation forms?
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I was naturally suited to be a lawyer, almost from birth. It was as if, almost, God had willed it. He meant for me to be here, to punish you, and then punish you some more.
I refuse to die a martyrs death here, because you know why?  Martyrs are still dead.
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« Reply #34 on: September 12, 2006, 07:13:05 pm »
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May this be the offical discussion thread for Laffey/Chafee.  Personally, I'm pumped.  I'll try to get info on when polls close and an updating results page now.

EDIT: "Eyewitness News" says polls close at 8 PM link

It looks like results will start coming in at 9 and not 8.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #35 on: September 12, 2006, 07:26:13 pm »
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This race is so important in so many different ways. Simply put, with a Chafee victory, taking back the Senate becomes nearly impossible.

If Laffey wins, it'll mean Democrats will start the cycle off with 46 seats. They'll then likely win in Pennsylvania, Montana and Ohio. This leaves Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia and New Jersey to  decide the fate of the upper chamber.

The DSCC won't have to spend a dime in NJ because of Menendez's warchest. That means the $5 million they save in RI will go to defeating Jim Talent, George Allen and Bob Corker.

At this juncture, I highly doubt the Senate will flip, but if Chafee wins, it'll become nearly impossible.
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« Reply #36 on: September 12, 2006, 07:58:15 pm »
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How long till the results start to come in?
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #37 on: September 12, 2006, 07:59:32 pm »
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From "The Hotline":

" Steve Laffey's campaign aides will be stunned if they lose. Campaign sources say they hit all their target numbers in every targeted precinct etc, assuming a turnout of 50 to 55k voters.

These are just targeting predictors, not vote counts, so anything can happen, but everything has gone as planned for their turnout operation.

The Secretary of State reports that precincts across the state ran out of the more than 20K Unaffiliation forms they distributed. That suggests a least three possibilities:

1. Independents and Democrats voted for Chafee and then re-established their independent credentials

2. Voters who normally vote D in municipal elections switched to R for the purposes of choosing Laffey or and then switched back

3. GOP voters switched to the Democratic Party for the purposes of the election and had no interest in the GOP primary.

Or all of the above. "

I highly doubt #3 is happening. It's either 1 or 2 or a combination of both. I think if Whitehouse and the Dems were having voters switch to independent to vote for Laffey in the primary, therefore ensuring a Whitehouse win, we would have heard about it.
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I'm still going out on a limb here and predicting that Tom Vilsack will eventually become the Dem nominee. 

The others--Edwards, Hillary, and Obama, have peaked WAY too early

THE BUCKS ARE GOING TO THE FINAL FOUR!!!

Deano963
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« Reply #38 on: September 12, 2006, 08:00:21 pm »
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How long till the results start to come in?

Should be shortly after 9.
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I'm still going out on a limb here and predicting that Tom Vilsack will eventually become the Dem nominee. 

The others--Edwards, Hillary, and Obama, have peaked WAY too early

THE BUCKS ARE GOING TO THE FINAL FOUR!!!

Comrade Sibboleth
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« Reply #39 on: September 12, 2006, 08:02:11 pm »
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How long till the results start to come in?

Should be shortly after 9.

What's that in U.K time?
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #40 on: September 12, 2006, 08:02:50 pm »
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How long till the results start to come in?

Should be shortly after 9.

What's that in U.K time?

Right now Smiley
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I was naturally suited to be a lawyer, almost from birth. It was as if, almost, God had willed it. He meant for me to be here, to punish you, and then punish you some more.
I refuse to die a martyrs death here, because you know why?  Martyrs are still dead.
sethm0
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« Reply #41 on: September 12, 2006, 08:04:29 pm »
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 If Whitehouse or the Dems were turning out people to vote for Laffey they did an incredible job of keeping it quiet. In a state as small as Rhode Island this is near impossible.

 Looking to the general, I think Whitehouse is a slight favorite against Chafee unless Chafee wins big tonight. Emphasis on slight.

 Whitehouse is a stronger favorite against Laffey, but don't underestimate Laffey. He would break 40 for sure and at least make Whitehouse work for a victory.
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MSUfan
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« Reply #42 on: September 12, 2006, 08:09:06 pm »
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This is taking forever!
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #43 on: September 12, 2006, 08:24:00 pm »
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This is taking forever!

Yeah.  This is gay.  I'm gonna end up going to bed before i know who won.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #44 on: September 12, 2006, 08:31:50 pm »
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With 9% of precincts reporting, Lincoln Chafee leads 55%-45%.
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E: -3.25
S: -2.72

On the GOP side, for 2016, look out for Gov. Phill Kline (KS), Gov. Ralph Reed (GA), Gov. JD Hayworth (AZ), Sen. David Vitter (LA), among others.
Comrade Sibboleth
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« Reply #45 on: September 12, 2006, 08:33:16 pm »
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With 9% of precincts reporting, Lincoln Chafee leads 55%-45%.

Got a link?
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
Sam Spade
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« Reply #46 on: September 12, 2006, 08:35:44 pm »
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http://www.turnto10.com/politics/9802560/detail.html
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Comrade Sibboleth
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« Reply #47 on: September 12, 2006, 08:38:22 pm »
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Thanks
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #48 on: September 12, 2006, 08:38:35 pm »
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This is almost certainly wrong (look at Whitehouse's distant third-place finish in the Democratic contest), but check out http://www.abc6.com/primary.shtml just for kicks.

Perhaps actually real is http://www.turnto10.com/politics/9802560/detail.html from what seems to be Providence's NBC affiliate.  Also, you might want to check out the "COMMENTS" thread under "Rhode Island: Primary Review" on Ron's blog in http://www.politics1.com/index.htm .

By this time someone has probably beaten me to this by several minutes, but the count I see on http://www.turnto10.com/politics/9802560/detail.html is:

Lincoln Chafee  2,735 55%  
Stephen Laffey  2,241 45%  
Precincts Reporting - 14 out of 515 - 3%
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #49 on: September 12, 2006, 08:39:28 pm »
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27% in:

Chafee   54%
Laffey     46%
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E: -3.25
S: -2.72

On the GOP side, for 2016, look out for Gov. Phill Kline (KS), Gov. Ralph Reed (GA), Gov. JD Hayworth (AZ), Sen. David Vitter (LA), among others.
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