Toss Up state poll averages

[mddem2004]

Of the seven states that this site lists as "Toss Up" states according to recent polls, 7 are states that Gore won (for a total of 77 EV's) and 4 are states that Bush won (for a total of 56 EV's).

I averaged all the polls listed for these states (dropping polls prior to May because they are getting dated) and came up with the following averages by state.

Kerry Leads:              Bush Leads:            DEAD HEAT
PA       46.83 - 44       OH    44.5 - 43.66   OR  44.4 - 44.4  
W. VA  45.66 - 45.33  FL     47.5 - 46.75
NH       47 - 43.66          
MI        46.37 - 42.5
WI       46 - 43
MN       48 - 42
IA         47 - 45
NM       47 - 44

Comments? Predictions? Analysis? Accusations???

[zachman]

Is this an average of the total poll respondents per state or the average of each poll result?

[mddem2004]

Is this an average of the total poll respondents per state or the average of each poll result?

Average of the poll percentage totals by state (dropping any prior to May).

[The Vorlon]

[mddem2004]

Vorlorn,
Do you think North Carolina will tighten up if Edwards is on the ticket, demographics have been changing quite a bit there you know.....

[The Vorlon]

Vorlorn,
Do you think North Carolina will tighten up if Edwards is on the ticket, demographics have been changing quite a bit there you know.....

Add Edwards to ticket => NC is close

[Lunar]

Vorlorn,
Do you think North Carolina will tighten up if Edwards is on the ticket, demographics have been changing quite a bit there you know.....

Mason Dixon had Bush up 1 against a Kerry/Edwards ticket but up 7 against a Kerry/somebody ticket.

[The Vorlon]

Vorlorn,
Do you think North Carolina will tighten up if Edwards is on the ticket, demographics have been changing quite a bit there you know.....

Mason Dixon had Bush up 1 against a Kerry/Edwards ticket but up 7 against a Kerry/somebody ticket.

Edwards on ticket => all bets are off.

[WMS]

Sorry for the delay...

If this is still your projection, Vorlon, then there's just one thing to say...

New Mexico: 48.0% - 48.0%!!!!! Holy crap! We haven't budged from 2000! It's gonna be hard to find a closer state than this one...yipe!

[??????????]

Bush is doing well in the battlegrounds. He has actually been improving over the past few months. I predict him to sweep every battleground with the exception of Washington and Iowa.

[StevenNick]

Bush is doing well in the battlegrounds. He has actually been improving over the past few months. I predict him to sweep every battleground with the exception of Washington and Iowa.

I think Bush has got a great chance up here in Washington.  Jobs are finally starting to return.  The states revenues just increased unexpectedly due to robust economic growth.  Plus Gary Locke is fairly unpopular here.  Christine Gregoire (The dem candidate to replace Locke) is a pretty crappy candidate with a little bit of a scandal following her from the AG's office.  Statewide, republicans have made gains in voter registration.

Kerry's got the advantage, but if things go well for Bush he could easily win Washington.

[Smash255]

Bush is doing well in the battlegrounds. He has actually been improving over the past few months. I predict him to sweep every battleground with the exception of Washington and Iowa.

I think Bush has got a great chance up here in Washington.  Jobs are finally starting to return.  The states revenues just increased unexpectedly due to robust economic growth.  Plus Gary Locke is fairly unpopular here.  Christine Gregoire (The dem candidate to replace Locke) is a pretty crappy candidate with a little bit of a scandal following her from the AG's office.  Statewide, republicans have made gains in voter registration.

Kerry's got the advantage, but if things go well for Bush he could easily win Washington.

Bush has trailed in EVERY SINGLE WA poll

[struct310]

Bush is doing well in the battlegrounds. He has actually been improving over the past few months. I predict him to sweep every battleground with the exception of Washington and Iowa.

I think Bush has got a great chance up here in Washington.  Jobs are finally starting to return.  The states revenues just increased unexpectedly due to robust economic growth.  Plus Gary Locke is fairly unpopular here.  Christine Gregoire (The dem candidate to replace Locke) is a pretty crappy candidate with a little bit of a scandal following her from the AG's office.  Statewide, republicans have made gains in voter registration.

Kerry's got the advantage, but if things go well for Bush he could easily win Washington.

I think that whoever wins the governors race will influence the outcome of the presidential race.  If its Rossi, then the state could go to Bush.  But if its the much hated Gregoire, then I highly doubt a Bush win.

[millwx]

Kerry Leads:              Bush Leads:            DEAD HEAT
PA       46.83 - 44       OH    44.5 - 43.66   OR  44.4 - 44.4  
W. VA  45.66 - 45.33  FL     47.5 - 46.75
NH       47 - 43.66          
MI        46.37 - 42.5
WI       46 - 43
MN       48 - 42
IA         47 - 45
NM       47 - 44

Comments? Predictions? Analysis? Accusations???

mddem, I pretty much agree.  I've apparently got too much time on my hands ...I'm tracking the same thing, updating as polls come in.  However, I'm also applying a methodology to parse out the undecideds and a segment of the Nader voters.  This, of course, helps Kerry.  Other than this, I've also avoided all subjectivity of judging polls and kept all polls in my analysis.  This helps both candidates in different places.  For example, Rasmussen and ARG would keep Kerry in the game in FL, while the Badger Poll keeps Bush up there in Wisconsin.  I also may be using a slightly different cutoff date on the polls than you are.  So, here are my numbers (WITHOUT my Nader/undecided interpretation, as that could complicate things and make for some disagreements)...

PA: Kerry +1.8%
WV: Bush +0.4%
NH: Kerry +2.1%
MI: Kerry +2.5%
WI: Kerry +1.2%
MN: Kerry +5.0%
IA: Kerry +4.5%
NM: Kerry +3.3%
OH: Bush +1.2%
FL: Bush +3.2%
OR: Kerry +4.1%

So, my only disagreements with you are WV and OR.  You have WV to Kerry.  My interpretation would yield the same thing, because it's so close, but the straight-up numbers I have make it a tie or slight Bush lean.  On the other hand, OR isn't as close as some keep pretending.  Yes, my objectivity forced me to include the likely poor Zogby polls which have Kerry up by more.  But, I've also included the questionable Rasmussen poll which has Bush up 1% there.  In fact, my 4% Kerry lead there is dead on with Public Opinion Strategies... a good firm.  I'm tired of hearing all this hoopla about how close OR is.  Ditto MN.  They are certainly not strong Kerry, but they are significant leans that way.  They will not go to Bush unless he wins the national PV by 5+%, in which case, they're irrelevant anyway, as Bush will then take all of the other above states for, effectively, a landslide.

Incidentally, my interpretation of the Nader/undecideds is enough to push WV to Kerry +1.5% and OH to Kerry +0.7%.  However, Bush has ticked up in recent national polls, so these may well remain in his column... in fact, he may even have pushed WI and PA to a tie... and it's almost unarguable that Bush is ahead in FL (my interpreted results still keep him up 1.7%, the two oldest polls in my poll average are Kerry-friendly, and we have Bush's recent small bump in national polls... Bush is probably about +5% in FL).

[Sibboleth]

The reason why NC is apparently "in play" isn't because of demographic factors...

[??????????]

See what I'm saying. Florida is NOT going to be close this year...Predictions I've made so far this season that I was laughed at about :

A) The election would be a referendum about Terror/Iraq.
B) The economy would improve and jobs would boom.
C) Bush will pull ahead in the national polls and solidify Florida.
D) Oregon is a tossup.
E) Wisconsin is a tossup.

My predictions that I stand by but are still unproven:

F) Hillary Clinton will be picked as VP.
G) Bush will win 348 EVs.

[mddem2004]

Kerry Leads:              Bush Leads:            DEAD HEAT
PA       46.83 - 44       OH    44.5 - 43.66   OR  44.4 - 44.4  
W. VA  45.66 - 45.33  FL     47.5 - 46.75
NH       47 - 43.66          
MI        46.37 - 42.5
WI       46 - 43
MN       48 - 42
IA         47 - 45
NM       47 - 44

Comments? Predictions? Analysis? Accusations???

mddem, I pretty much agree.  I've apparently got too much time on my hands ...I'm tracking the same thing, updating as polls come in.  However, I'm also applying a methodology to parse out the undecideds and a segment of the Nader voters.  This, of course, helps Kerry.  Other than this, I've also avoided all subjectivity of judging polls and kept all polls in my analysis.  This helps both candidates in different places.  For example, Rasmussen and ARG would keep Kerry in the game in FL, while the Badger Poll keeps Bush up there in Wisconsin.  I also may be using a slightly different cutoff date on the polls than you are.  So, here are my numbers (WITHOUT my Nader/undecided interpretation, as that could complicate things and make for some disagreements)...

PA: Kerry +1.8%
WV: Bush +0.4%
NH: Kerry +2.1%
MI: Kerry +2.5%
WI: Kerry +1.2%
MN: Kerry +5.0%
IA: Kerry +4.5%
NM: Kerry +3.3%
OH: Bush +1.2%
FL: Bush +3.2%
OR: Kerry +4.1%

So, my only disagreements with you are WV and OR.  You have WV to Kerry.  My interpretation would yield the same thing, because it's so close, but the straight-up numbers I have make it a tie or slight Bush lean.  On the other hand, OR isn't as close as some keep pretending.  Yes, my objectivity forced me to include the likely poor Zogby polls which have Kerry up by more.  But, I've also included the questionable Rasmussen poll which has Bush up 1% there.  In fact, my 4% Kerry lead there is dead on with Public Opinion Strategies... a good firm.  I'm tired of hearing all this hoopla about how close OR is.  Ditto MN.  They are certainly not strong Kerry, but they are significant leans that way.  They will not go to Bush unless he wins the national PV by 5+%, in which case, they're irrelevant anyway, as Bush will then take all of the other above states for, effectively, a landslide.

Incidentally, my interpretation of the Nader/undecideds is enough to push WV to Kerry +1.5% and OH to Kerry +0.7%.  However, Bush has ticked up in recent national polls, so these may well remain in his column... in fact, he may even have pushed WI and PA to a tie... and it's almost unarguable that Bush is ahead in FL (my interpreted results still keep him up 1.7%, the two oldest polls in my poll average are Kerry-friendly, and we have Bush's recent small bump in national polls... Bush is probably about +5% in FL).

Great analysis, I won't argue against any of it! I merely used May 1 as a cut off date and uncluded all polls, good/bad and ugly for my numbers figuring they will ave each other out. I really hope you are right about Oregon, you probably are because I doubt Nader will get the relativley strong support there this time. In fact I predict Nader will get no more than 1% of the vote nationally anyway if he's lucky. W. VA is another one that I think will confound pollsters until we get closer to the election. The old Roosevelt era Dem base is dying off faster than it can be replaced sadly.....

[millwx]

Great analysis, I won't argue against any of it!

Well, I'm TRYING to be as objective as possible.  Probably about 90% of the people on this board have a strong choice/opinion between Kerry and Bush.  And too often than not, I see people injecting their preference into their analysis.  It is, frankly, pathetic.  I'm not trying to sound holier than thou, but simply... one's personal opinion, bias and wishes aren't going to make a prediction come true!  So, I'm simply taking a poll average.  And even my "interpretation" isn't subjectively/overly pro-Kerry (full disclosure... I am very much a centrist - the "political compass" put me damned near zero and zero!... but I am unabashedly against Bush in this election)... I'm not using obscene pro-Kerry ratios to break down the undecideds, nor am I giving him all the Nader votes.  However, with Nader in most polls but on few ballots, Kerry does get a bit better in my "interpretation".  So... with OR at Kerry +4.3% in the poll average straight-up, I don't believe I'm being at all biased saying that OR is just NOT a true "battleground".  Unless there is a specific focus on Oregon by Bush... if Bush runs Oregon to dead-even, the race is already over, Bush wins big.  Otherwise, if the race remains tight, there is no question, Kerry takes Oregon.  Period.  Same with Minnesota.  Same with Iowa.

[bgwah]

Washington isn't a swing state.

[millwx]

Washington isn't a swing state.

You're correct.  That's why it wasn't in "mddem2004"'s original list.  Nor did I include it.  The latest poll average, straight-up, no interpretation, no subjectivity in the selection of the polls, using all polls from the state since June 1st, has Kerry up just over 5%.  Close?  Yes.  A battleground or swing state?  No, not really.

Some people are saying Bush can win Washington.  Can he?  Absolutely!  But he needs to gain another 5%, or more.  If he does that, and the trend is nationwide, the election will have been long since over, as several other key states (like PA) will fall to Bush.  So, WA absolutely is not a battleground state.  I view battleground states as states where the election will be decided.  "Close" states that are not within 3% in a poll average are not battleground states... because if the person behind catches up in those states then that person is clearly well ahead electorally (in a snapshot on any given day).  In other words, that person took the electoral lead long before he caught up in the "close", non-battleground state.  AR (Bush), CO (Bush), VA (Bush), MN (Kerry), NM (Kerry), WA (Kerry), OR (Kerry) and IA (Kerry) are the best examples (leader has a lead of 3-5%).  These are all close states, but none of them are battlegrounds (subjectively, I disagree and would say that NM is, but the numbers speak for themselves... Kerry is up 3.3% there).

[??????????]

Mill by your theory I believe that Florida is going from battleground to close.