Smash's Senate & House Predictions

[Smash255]

Sam Spade's thread gave me the thought to do this one.  I was going to start it a couple days ago, but wanted to wait for the Primaries tonight.  I will start out with my prediction for the House (just a general prediction and will get more detailed in the next couple of weeks) as well as my Senate Predictions & race analysis.  To start I will have an analysis on the race sin which I think will either flip and/ or within 10 points.  Later on may possibly expand my analysis to other races.

Montana.  Looks like Tester is having a tough time establishing himself in the race, as some of the polls have been a bit closer than I would have thought.  However, it doesn't matter at this point.  Burns has done just way too much damage to himself to win this race.  He as in bad shape to begin with due to the Abramoff debacle & he makes stupid ass comment after stupid ass coment, his approval #'s down right suck. Dem pickup Tester wins by about 8%

Pennsylvania.  Similar to tester casey is having a tough time establishing himself.  The race has gotten a bit closer, and closer than I originally thought.  However, casey's father's legacy will help him, and the fact he isn't Santorum helps him.  Santorum is just viewed as being too conservative, and is too close to Bush in a state where Bush is as unpopular as he is to overcome it.  Casey also benefits from having Ed Rendell on the top of the ticket.  Rendell will drive out the voters in SEPA where his #'s are  just insane.  Those are the grou of voters that Casey's conservative stances may turn off a bit, but with rendell there they will turn out to the polls and they are not going to vote Santorum.  Dem pickup Casey by 6%

Ohio.  When hings go down all around you, they tend to knock you down as well, and this is what Dewine faces.  Dewine was never really strong to begin with, his approvals have generally been mediocore at best.  However, typically being a mnodrate Republican in a generallyt moderate state would be fine, however the Republican Party in Ohio has left disaster mode in the dust.  Govenor Bob Taft has already pled guilty to corruption charges, (he is lucky his ass isn't in a jail cell) he has massive corruption scandals including coingate (with millions & millions of missing $$) around him.  Despite winning Ohio in 04, Bush isn't liked at all here & that is putting it nicley.  Rep Jean Schmidt is an embarassment of a Congresswoman, Bob Ney is in as deep in the Abramoff saga as Burns is.  To make things worse for Dewine, while Taft isn't running for re-election Strickland looks like he wins the govenor's mansion in a landslide.  Sherrod Brown might be a bit more liberal than most in Ohio would like, but he is a strong canddiate.  Dewine simply has WAYY to much to overcome to win this race.  Dem pickup Brown by 5

Rhode Island.  This could have headed off the list if laffey won the Primary, but Chafee lwon to keep this seat at least in play for the GOP.  Chafee is easily the most liberal Republican in the Senate, against the death penalty, staunchly pro-choice, pro gay rights (possibly pro gay marriage) pro gun control, against Bush's tax cuts, only Republican in the Senate not to vote for the Authroization for Iraq, hell he didn't even vote for Bush in 04.  Even with all of that he still faces an uphill battle against Sheldon Whitehouse.  Whitehouse is accomplished in his own right and a very strong candidate.  Even with his anti Bushcredentials and his strong anti GOP stand, the state is just too Democratic in a bad year for the GOP for Chafee to hold it.  The R next to his name does it in, but he puts up a good fight.  Dem pickup Whitehouse by 2%

Missouri.  To say this is going to be a real close race doesn't do it justice.  Polls in this race have been bouncing back & forth and it should.  This is a GOP  leaning state with an average Republican Senator with an unpopular GOP President  in a Democratic year with a strong Democratic challenger.  Talent has the huge $$ adv which is key, but McCaskill should be able to make it a bit closer $$ wise epspecially with all the $$ National Dems are pumping into this race.  Embryonic Stem Cell Research has become the hot button of all hot button issues here and its going to hurt Talent.  polls have shown the majority of the people of Missouri support expaning funding for Embryonic Stem cell research, Talent has voted against the expansion and McCaskill has hit Talent hard and often on it, the issue will be on the ballot in November.  This could very well be the deciding issue, and with everything else tending to cancel each other out this gives McCaskill a narrow victory (though it can go anywhere. Dem pickup  McCaskill by 0.7%

Tennesse.  What looked like an easy victory for Corker has turned into a tough battle.  corker's campaign hasn't been that strong and he is now having problems over some of his decisons as mayor of Chattanooga.  Ford JR is a very strong candidate and running an amazing campaign.  he is very charismatic and is a brilliant speaker.  Very Clinonesque in his tone and a very likeable guy.  However, TN despite like many other states not liking Bush anymore is still a GOP ,leaning state, and Ford Jr being African American will hurt him to a slight degree (which is very unfortunate that it still happens, but it does.  Corker at this point seems like he will win, and if the way things are going doesn't change it could be a different story, but Corker has to right his track at some pont.  GOP hold Corker by 2%

Virginia.  This looked like a race Allen would win with a solid margin, though never really looked like a blowout.  then he shoved his entire foot in his mouth, with the whole "Macaca" incident, fo,llowed up by "Welcome to America" and the whole way it was handeled did not help.  Polls have shown this race get much closer, and it has.  Its still a GOP leaning state, but it is moving Democratic, and NOVA is FLYING leftward.  Despite hte $$ the Dems are starting to dump into this race, Allen will still have a large $$ adv.  That combined with the GOP leanings of he state help him win this, but its not a sure thing. GOP hold  Allen by 3%

Conneticut.  Well no Republican here, well there technically is, but Schlessinger is a joke of the jokes.  Most of the country is against the war in iraq, and thinks it  was a mistake, and Ct is to the left of most the country on this.  The anger over Lieberman's support for the war led to him going down in the Dem Primary.  Lamont has been able to raise a large amoutn of $$ and will continue to do so.  However, at this point the race favors Lieberman.  I would say more than anything else its the GOP's just down right awful canddiate that helps Lieberman hold the seat, though not a done deal. Ind pickup/ Dem hold, Lieberman by 4%



New Jersey
Menendez is having his troubles.  he is being investigated by the feds which well is never a good thing for someone in a campaign.  Kean Jr has a popular ex Govenor as his father.  Kean JR is generally pretty moderate as wellHowever, this is New Jersey.  its a Democratic state, that doesn't like GOp Seanators.  And well the state just doesn't like the National GOP period.  Bush's #'s in the state are absolutley horrid, and despite suddenly calling for Rumsfeld's resignation kean JR has an unpopular stance on the Iraq War.  In anither year, another state, the reuslts might be diffrerent.  However, its New Jersey 2006, and the R next to kean's name well destroys him. Dem hold Menendez by 5.

Maryland..  Steele is probably a bit more charasmatic than Cardin, and as an African American will get more African American votes than most republicans would typically get, but well thats where his advantages end.  Maryland is a liberal Democratic state that STRONGLY DTRONGLY dislikes Bush.  Cardin is a solid campaigner and a solid canddiate, Steele seems like a good campaigner and is a good speaker, however he is JUST WAYY too conservative to be elected in Maryland, especially in a year like this.  He will get more than the 10% of the african American vote Republicans typically get, but its unlikely to be more than 20% of the African American voe (and probably slightly less) his views are just too far to the right for this state.  Dem hold Cardin by 8%

Minnesota.  Klobuchar is looking like a solid candiate running a strong campaign and well Kennedy isn't.  The seat being vacated by Dayton did give the GOp some hope, but it was misguided hope.  Kennedy's district is much more conservative than the state as a whole, and while winning his races didn't get the margins a Republican in a district like his would lead you to believe.  Bush isn't popular in the state, and Kennedy is quite close to Bush something he has been hit hard on and will continue to be.  Dem hold Klobuchar by 9%

I preidct a 17 seat Dem pickup/ 16 seat GOP loss  in the house and for them to barley take the house.  219-215

Senate 5 dem seat pickup + CT going to IND 50-48-2  (50-49-1 if Lieberman is included as a Dem)

edit I didn't see the new Survey USA poll for TN before this prediction.  With the first poll showing Ford ahead, and the previous poll showing it a one point race, while I still believe it will go to Corker this has gotten a bit closer

[Nym90]

Your predictions seem quite reasonable. I'm still hopeful we can get either TN or VA but 50 seats is probably the most likely result.

[Smash255]

Your predictions seem quite reasonable. I'm still hopeful we can get either TN or VA but 50 seats is probably the most likely result.

I think we can take both TN & VA, and the latest SUSA poll in TN looks very good, but it is just one poll.  At this point I think both favors favor the GOP, but slightly and that can change, especially as the momentium is on or side in both states at the moment..  Before I start predicting a pickup in either state I would like to see some polls with Webb ahead in VA and a couple more with ford in the lead in TN, but both races are close and within striking distance.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Keystone Phil's are much better as you overestimate the Democrats in most races

[© tweed]

Keystone Phil's are much better as you overestimate the Democrats in most races

Anybody currently picking Santorum to win is overestimating the Republicans.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Keystone Phil's are much better as you overestimate the Democrats in most races

Anybody currently picking Santorum to win is overestimating the Republicans.

He has a point, and he acknowledges Casey is the favorite at the moment.

Smash has no realism because he still insists Menendez is the favorite.

Menendez by 5?  If he somehow pulls it out it will be more like 2%
Tester by 8? Tester should win by something like 2 or 3
Casey by 6? If Santorum doesn't win it certainly is closer than 6.

[© tweed]

GOP hold
Pennsylvania - He's staying, guys. Santorum wins by two three to four points.

Quite intellectual!

Tester by 8 is a minor overstatement, but it mirrors most recent polls on the race.
Casey by 6 is hardly unreasonable.  The last 4 polls have Casey of 5, 6, 6, and 8.  It certainly makes more sense than picking Santorum to win.

As for Menendez being the favorite, well, he probably isn't.  TradeSports says Kean is selling at 55, so he's a marginal favorite.  But due to the high number of undecideds in NJ that historically break hard D, Menendez has a very good chance to win.

Now, everyone's heart seeps into their predictions.  Or at least most people's.  Put at least defarge triess to rationalize it instead of stating, "he's staying, guys!"

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

When Mason Dixon comes out with its analyst on the races I can see picking up this many, but until they do, I am going to be skeptical.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

GOP hold
Pennsylvania - He's staying, guys. Santorum wins by two three to four points.

Quite intellectual!

Tester by 8 is a minor overstatement, but it mirrors most recent polls on the race.
Casey by 6 is hardly unreasonable.  The last 4 polls have Casey of 5, 6, 6, and 8.  It certainly makes more sense than picking Santorum to win.

As for Menendez being the favorite, well, he probably isn't.  TradeSports says Kean is selling at 55, so he's a marginal favorite.  But due to the high number of undecideds in NJ that historically break hard D, Menendez has a very good chance to win.

Now, everyone's heart seeps into their predictions.  Or at least most people's.  Put at least defarge triess to rationalize it instead of stating, "he's staying, guys!"

I agree w/ you on NJ. It's not that Kean can't win or is not the favoured candidate right now. It's the level of UD is far too high - and as you said NJ UD swing heavily D of late. Also the plain demographics of the state are making me wait on this one.

[DownWithTheLeft]

GOP hold
Pennsylvania - He's staying, guys. Santorum wins by two three to four points.

Quite intellectual!

Tester by 8 is a minor overstatement, but it mirrors most recent polls on the race.
Casey by 6 is hardly unreasonable.  The last 4 polls have Casey of 5, 6, 6, and 8.  It certainly makes more sense than picking Santorum to win.

As for Menendez being the favorite, well, he probably isn't.  TradeSports says Kean is selling at 55, so he's a marginal favorite.  But due to the high number of undecideds in NJ that historically break hard D, Menendez has a very good chance to win.

Now, everyone's heart seeps into their predictions.  Or at least most people's.  Put at least defarge triess to rationalize it instead of stating, "he's staying, guys!"

I agree w/ you on NJ. It's not that Kean can't win or is not the favoured candidate right now. It's the level of UD is far too high - and as you said NJ UD swing heavily D of late. Also the plain demographics of the state are making me wait on this one.

The amount of times Smash and others say "NJ undecided break hard Dem as of late."

Or my favorite is when Smash says they do when "the candidate is not well-known" (which would be always)

NJ gave a large bounce to Bush post-9/11.  Please, can someone tell me how many statewide elections have been held post 9/11 when Doug Forrester is not the candidate?

0

The answer again is: 0

Previous elections can hardly be used as a standard in this case b/c there is no election that bars a lot of similarties w/this race.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So you think that bounce has lasted for nearly 2 years?

[DownWithTheLeft]

So you think that bounce has lasted for nearly 2 years?

I think it's possible, the NJ is certainly in better shape, I'm more saying this race can't be gauged by 2000, 2002, 2005 or further back

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Given Bush's approval rating in NJ is presently 33% (the same as MA btw) - and has only grazed 40% once since May 2005 - I would say Bush wouldn't be helpful.

So if you're thinking that Bush's 9/11 bounce somehow is helping Republicans statewide... then I think the Reps need that help like a hole in the head.

If the Dems lose this seat - it won't be because the Reps won it.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Given Bush's approval rating in NJ is presently 33% (the same as MA btw) - and has only grazed 40% once since May 2005 - I would say Bush wouldn't be helpful.

So if you're thinking that Bush's 9/11 bounce somehow is helping Republicans statewide... then I think the Reps need that help like a hole in the head.

If the Dems lose this seat - it won't be because the Reps won it.

The Republicans win this seat because Tom Kean Jr. is a squeaky clean great candidate and Bob Menendez is corrupt party-boss scumbag.

Previous races and Bush have little to no effect

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

But weren't you saying that post 9/11 bounce (which is directly related to Bush - and brought NJ into play in '04) has helped place the Reps in a better position?

Therefore you do agree that if the Dems lose the seat it will be a Dem LOSS rather than a Rep WIN. Because they are the incumbent party and should have won this relatively easily, but they got sloppy and took the seat for granted.

[DownWithTheLeft]

But weren't you saying that post 9/11 bounce (which is directly related to Bush - and brought NJ into play in '04) has helped place the Reps in a better position?

Therefore you do agree that if the Dems lose the seat it will be a Dem LOSS rather than a Rep WIN. Because they are the incumbent party and should have won this relatively easily, but they got sloppy and took the seat for granted.

It's a combination of both, the Republicans nominated their best candidate, Doug Forrester would have made this race FL material, on the other hand Dick Codey would have made it MI material.

I think the Republicans deserve a lot of credit for picking a great nominee.

And yes, I do believe that 9/11 is pushing NJ a little to the right, and the high cost of living is pushing out many poor liberals.

[Smash255]

Making a few changes

Casey's lead has increased from  the time we saw tighter polls, also Santorum's #'s have dropped back down.  More important the debate clearly has not helped Santorum the way many of his supporters has hoped. Dem gain casey by 10%

Ohio- Brown continues to roll with this one.  Dewine's #'s drop some more, Bush's #'s stll suck in Ohio.  Strickland is off to a blowout, the GOP could lose several house seats in the state.  Slight uptick for Brown from last pick.  Dem gain Brown by 6%

Rhode Island-  not much of a change here, but any bounce that chafee could have gotten from the primary doesn't seem to be going anywhere, because of that I give a slight boost to Whitehouse, but doesn't really change much.  Whitehouse by 4%

TN - I am now predicting a narrow Ford victory.  This race is very close and could go either way, however Ford clearly has all the momentium.  he is running what is probably the best campaign of any challenger in the Senate, and Corker is running a lackluster campaign, which can't seem to get off the ground. Dem gain Ford by 1%

NJ.  Race is a little closer than my previous prediction, but even with kean leading in all the polls I don't see him pulling it out.  Most the polls show him a lead within the MOE, and most have a large undecided base.  The ethical claims against menendez while still hurt him seem like it has hit a wall, and no wrong doing on his part.  Menenndez has the funding advantage and the Bush advantage on his side.  Menendez's has his problems thats for sure, but I just don't see a state who strongly disapproves of Bush by a 2-1 margin will flip & elect a GOP Senator.  Dem hold Menendez by 3%


I was orignally going to keep my predictions on races I thought would be 10 points & under, but still will update this one.  Minnesota.  Kennedy is done period, with 4 polls in a row showing him down well into the double digits I don't think their is anymore to say.  Dem hold Klobuchar by 14%

my other picks which remain unchanged

Montana- nothing has changed much here, still decisive victory for Tester, Burn's #'s are brutal.  tester by 8%

Missouri- Remains among the closest races in the entire Senate.  along with TN should be the most interesting & fun to watch.  No real changes here, no new polls, small approval drop for Talent  This is a close race, but the ballot issues which mcCaskill favors & talent opposes (embryonic stem cell research funding & min wage increase) which are expected to pass by wide margins gives McCaskill an edge.  McCaskill by .7%

Virginia.  Haven't seen much polling recentley on this race.  And nothing since the debates or Allen's latest incidents (hiding of his heritage, recent controversey over what he may have done & said while in college).  This looked like a decent Allen victory, but he is running almost as bad of a campaign as Burns (which is pathetic).  Allen has an edge, but he is on thin ice,, one more misstep could cost him.  before making any changes in either direction need to see some new polling.  Allen by 3%

CT-  Hard to really judge this race.  Some polls show Lieberman with a low double digit lead, other polls show it very close.  I was debating on predicting a laarger Lieberman victory (and moving it to lean Ind on my map) but the last few days have netted some real bad stories out of Iraq, which hurts Lieberman.  Lieberman by 4

MD-  Despite the SUSA poll, (which I view as an outlier) I think this is too big of a task for Steele.  The new ads comparing him to Bush really hit him hard.  Steele is running a strong campaign, and he deserves credit for the job he has done.     However, this is Maaryland a fairly liberal Democratic state.  Steele is quite conservative, just not a good fit.  he is not going to be able to keep hiding that fact, and the new commercials pointing that out and linking him to bush show how vulnerable he is here.  He will do better than your typical republican would among African American voters, but not nearly good enough.  Cardin by 8%

[Smash255]

Update time, will probably give one more update late monday night.

MN.  Don't know why I am including this.  Its over, been over, never really was a race.  Kennedy iwas too much of a Bush bot to have a chance anyway, and has run a bad campaign, Klobuchar hasn't been great, but has been solid.  Klobuchar by 17.6


PA-  This one has been over for awhile.  Santorum's approval numbers suck, Bush's #'s are even worse, and Santorum has een a close ally. Casey far fro m the most inspiring person, well isn't Santorum.  Polls in this race show its not close, most in the double digits and thats how it will end.  casey by 12.5

OH-  Dewine really isn't liked, brown has been running a stong campaign.  Bush is strongly disliked here as well the GOP is in massive disaster mode and then some here.  no polls are close.  brown by 11.8

CT-  Lieberman pretty much has this one in the bag.  Lamont had a strong Primary campaign, but couldn't get any real traction afterward.  Lieberman by 9.8

MD-  Not sure why so much has been made of this race or why their are conflicting polls.   While a Republican African American candidate will do better among African Americans than most Republicans would, only moderate african American Republicans will get the african American vote needed to be fairly competitive.  Steele is way to conservative to do that, and WAY too conservative for a state like Maryland.  He will still do better than Bush did among African Americans and he has run a solid campaign.  However, he is just too conservative, running in too much of a Democratic year, in a state that is too Democratic and strongly disapproves of the gOP President.  Cardin by 9.6

RI  Despite being a liberal Republican who has dissented from Bush on most issues, have bashed Bush and the national GOP many many times, that R next to his nme destroys him.  The state is staunchly Democratic, and Bush's #'s are just beyond brutal.  Whitehouse by 9.2

NJ.  A race, which looked a bit closer a little while ago, but it appears Menendez has pulled ahead by a bit.  Bush's #'s are awful here, its a Democratic state, in a Democratic year, with an unpopular GOP President, and undecideds typically break Democrat.  Menendez by 7.5

MT.  It looked like Tester was on his way to a rather large victory.  Polls have gotten a bit closer and the state is Very Republican.  One of the few states where Bush's approval isn't in the toilet (though its mediocore at best)  However, people in Burns's shape do not win.  His approvals are brutal.  Tester by 6.2

MO.  Was pretty much the closest race throughout the whole year, and the true definition of a tossup, a basic coin flip.  However, it seems like right now McCaskill has the momentium on her side, and while still in the rating of a tossup, it doesn't look like it will be the razor thin margin it looked like it was going to be.  McCaskill by 3.3

VA-  Oh wow have things chnged here.  Months ago it looked like Allen was goin to win easily, and the only question as if he was going to win by enough to give him a boost for 08.  Well Allen shot himself in the foot, reloaded shot himself in the foot again & again & again.  Then it looked like it calmed down for swhile, and he had an edge, though a close one.  The bashing of Webb's fiction novel looks like it backfired big time and the recent slam to the ground incident doesn't help matters.  Forget the White House, allen isn't going to keep his Senate seat.  Webb by 2.4

TN-  The polls have been bouncing around so much i seems like each poll is of 50 people.  I really don't know what to think about here, some polls show Corker taking a large boost others don't.  It seems like Corker may have had a boost at first from the ad, but it may now hurt him.  This will be the closest race of the Senate and could very well come down to a recount.  Ford by .14


Dems win 29 house seats

[Keystone Phil]

Who the hell says someone (Lieberman, in this case) will win by "9.8" points instead of just saying ten? And I love how Sherrod Brown will win by "11.8" I can see other headlines now...

KLOBUCHAR WINS IN 17.6 POINT LANDLSIDE

[Smash255]

Who the hell says someone (Lieberman, in this case) will win by "9.8" points instead of just saying ten? And I love how Sherrod Brown will win by "11.8" I can see other headlines now...

KLOBUCHAR WINS IN 17.6 POINT LANDLSIDE

What is wrong with getting specific???  I had it listed as 18, 12, 10, etc at first, but decided to change it to have all the races a bit more specific rather than just the close ones.

[Keystone Phil]

Who the hell says someone (Lieberman, in this case) will win by "9.8" points instead of just saying ten? And I love how Sherrod Brown will win by "11.8" I can see other headlines now...

KLOBUCHAR WINS IN 17.6 POINT LANDLSIDE

What is wrong with getting specific???  I had it listed as 18, 12, 10, etc at first, but decided to change it to have all the races a bit more specific rather than just the close ones.

Klobuchar wins by 17.6223490%!

[Smash255]

Who the hell says someone (Lieberman, in this case) will win by "9.8" points instead of just saying ten? And I love how Sherrod Brown will win by "11.8" I can see other headlines now...

KLOBUCHAR WINS IN 17.6 POINT LANDLSIDE

What is wrong with getting specific???  I had it listed as 18, 12, 10, etc at first, but decided to change it to have all the races a bit more specific rather than just the close ones.

Klobuchar wins by 17.6223490%!

Ha Ha, you know what I meant. 

[Soaring Eagle]

Who the hell says someone (Lieberman, in this case) will win by "9.8" points instead of just saying ten? And I love how Sherrod Brown will win by "11.8" I can see other headlines now...

KLOBUCHAR WINS IN 17.6 POINT LANDLSIDE

What is wrong with getting specific???  I had it listed as 18, 12, 10, etc at first, but decided to change it to have all the races a bit more specific rather than just the close ones.

Klobuchar wins by 17.6223490%!

Well, obviously the mainstream media would not get that specific, but I see no problem in using decimals to make things more precise when making a prediction on a forum like this.

[Smash255]

Going to mak an adjustment on TN.  While I think it will be closer than the polls indicate now, their is no denying that TN looks like it will go to Corker.  Corker by 2.7%