Strategic Vision: Kean(R) maintains lead over Menendez(D)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: New Jersey Senator by Strategic Vision on 2006-09-10

Summary: D: 40%, R: 44%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Keystone Phil]

This race slightly leans GOP now.

I love Jon Corzine for appointing Menendez. I can't wait until Kean gets the last laugh at those two slime balls on Election night.

[adam]

Strategic Vision is a partisan poll I may add, thus it's validity should  be questioned.

[ATFFL]

There are a few interesting things about this poll.

FIrst, it is a six point swing toward Kean from the last SV poll.  This is about the same as FDU had in their last poll (7 points) and less than Rasmussen (11 points.)  The older Ras sample seemed a little Dem friendly, though.

Second, the undecideds are dropping.  SV does not push undecided voters very much, if at all.  They are down to 16% undecided.

[Eraserhead]

I doubt Bush is at 38% in NJ when he is at about 40% approval nationally.

[Gustaf]

Strategic Vision is a partisan poll I may add, thus it's validity should  be questioned.

...this from someone who trusts Zogby polls.

No one has been able to prove that SV has a partisan bias in polls they conduct independently.

[Eraserhead]

Strategic Vision is a partisan poll I may add, thus it's validity should  be questioned.

...this from someone who trusts Zogby polls.

No one has been able to prove that SV has a partisan bias in polls they conduct independently.

So you think Bush is at 38% in NJ?

[adam]

Strategic Vision is a partisan poll I may add, thus it's validity should  be questioned.

...this from someone who trusts Zogby polls.

No one has been able to prove that SV has a partisan bias in polls they conduct independently.

I don't trust Zogby per say, I just don't believe that EVERY poll they do lacks even a sliver of potential accuracy. That being said...

Strategic Vision has always been a Republican tool....just like Internal D is for the Democrats. It seems to be one of the few polls with a GOP bias. Rasmussen and Survey USA tend to lean Democrat.

[ATFFL]

I doubt Bush is at 38% in NJ when he is at about 40% approval nationally.

In the lead up to 9-11 in NJ?  Yeah, he probably got a bounce from that in NJ.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Swings this month:

SV: +6
Rasmussen: +11
FDU: +7

A combined 24 point swing

HEY CONAN,
still thinking Menendez is the favorite?

[Gustaf]

Strategic Vision is a partisan poll I may add, thus it's validity should  be questioned.

...this from someone who trusts Zogby polls.

No one has been able to prove that SV has a partisan bias in polls they conduct independently.

So you think Bush at 38% in NJ?

No, I think no one has been able to prove that SV has a Republican bias in their independent polls.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Swings this month:

SV: +6
Rasmussen: +11
FDU: +7

A combined 24 point swing

HEY CONAN,
still thinking Menendez is the favorite?

Well following that logic the winner would get 156% of the vote.

The issue to be happy about is an AVERAGE swing of 8% in Kean's favour.

[ATFFL]

Swings this month:

SV: +6
Rasmussen: +11
FDU: +7

A combined 24 point swing

HEY CONAN,
still thinking Menendez is the favorite?

I think averaging may be better than combining here.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Swings this month:

SV: +6
Rasmussen: +11
FDU: +7

A combined 24 point swing

HEY CONAN,
still thinking Menendez is the favorite?

I think averaging may be better than combining here.

Ok, an average of 8, that is still pretty good

[Eraserhead]

Strategic Vision is a partisan poll I may add, thus it's validity should  be questioned.

...this from someone who trusts Zogby polls.

No one has been able to prove that SV has a partisan bias in polls they conduct independently.

So you think Bush at 38% in NJ?

No, I think no one has been able to prove that SV has a Republican bias in their independent polls.

Doesn't answer the question.

[Conan]

Swings this month:

SV: +6
Rasmussen: +11
FDU: +7

A combined 24 point swing

HEY CONAN,
still thinking Menendez is the favorite?

You must be one of the dumbest people in the entire state. You cant combine swings and they dont really matter. What matters are is Menendez has the cash, the issues, the ads, the presidents approval ratings, and Iraq. What does Kean have? A margin of error.  By the end of September Menendez: 47  Kean 42.

[Conan]

I doubt Bush is at 38% in NJ when he is at about 40% approval nationally.

In the lead up to 9-11 in NJ?  Yeah, he probably got a bounce from that in NJ.

Bush's association in NJ with 9/11 is no longer a one where he is a protector, it is one of a failed government allowing it to happen. No bump for 9/11, if anything a slump for his failures and failing to keep us safe from future terrorist attacks.

[nini2287]

I doubt Bush is at 38% in NJ when he is at about 40% approval nationally.

In the lead up to 9-11 in NJ?  Yeah, he probably got a bounce from that in NJ.

Bush's association in NJ with 9/11 is no longer a one where he is a protector, it is one of a failed government allowing it to happen. No bump for 9/11, if anything a slump for his failures and failing to keep us safe from future terrorist attacks.

Where are you getting that from?  You did notice Bush's big bounce in NJ in 2004?

[Conan]

I doubt Bush is at 38% in NJ when he is at about 40% approval nationally.

In the lead up to 9-11 in NJ?  Yeah, he probably got a bounce from that in NJ.

Bush's association in NJ with 9/11 is no longer a one where he is a protector, it is one of a failed government allowing it to happen. No bump for 9/11, if anything a slump for his failures and failing to keep us safe from future terrorist attacks.

Where are you getting that from?  You did notice Bush's big bounce in NJ in 2004?

You mean something from 2 years ago with a bunch of spin and when the terror alerts were going and people thought he was competent to actually be president? A lot can happen in 2 years. Yes i did notice the 6 point bounce.

[PrisonerOfHope]

I think this swing has more to do with Kean's aggressive smear campaign, now a second incident regarding a rental agreement.  This is probably not bad stategy on Kean's part as he needed to show the state was still in play.  It is more likely to cost him in the long run though.  How many times can you claim the other guy is about to be thrown in the slammer only to have the wild allegations disproven and shown to be totaly unfounded?

[Gustaf]

Strategic Vision is a partisan poll I may add, thus it's validity should  be questioned.

...this from someone who trusts Zogby polls.

No one has been able to prove that SV has a partisan bias in polls they conduct independently.

So you think Bush at 38% in NJ?

No, I think no one has been able to prove that SV has a Republican bias in their independent polls.

Doesn't answer the question.

That is because the question is irrelevant to the issue we're discussing.

[MarkWarner08]

Let's see how this stands in October.

[Eraserhead]

Strategic Vision is a partisan poll I may add, thus it's validity should  be questioned.

...this from someone who trusts Zogby polls.

No one has been able to prove that SV has a partisan bias in polls they conduct independently.

So you think Bush at 38% in NJ?

No, I think no one has been able to prove that SV has a Republican bias in their independent polls.

Doesn't answer the question.

That is because the question is irrelevant to the issue we're discussing.

How is it irrelevant? It has to with their poll?

[Gustaf]

Strategic Vision is a partisan poll I may add, thus it's validity should  be questioned.

...this from someone who trusts Zogby polls.

No one has been able to prove that SV has a partisan bias in polls they conduct independently.

So you think Bush at 38% in NJ?

No, I think no one has been able to prove that SV has a Republican bias in their independent polls.

Doesn't answer the question.

That is because the question is irrelevant to the issue we're discussing.

How is it irrelevant? It has to with their poll?

Yes, but it has to do with one single poll, not with the general polling of Strategic Vision. You can't pick one approval number from a poll not even about that as proof that they're biased. Maybe Bush approval got higher there, maybe this one poll over-estimated that, regardless it isn't very relevant to the issue we're discussing, that is whether SV is biased or not.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I doubt Bush is at 38% in NJ when he is at about 40% approval nationally.

In the lead up to 9-11 in NJ?  Yeah, he probably got a bounce from that in NJ.

Bush's association in NJ with 9/11 is no longer a one where he is a protector, it is one of a failed government allowing it to happen. No bump for 9/11, if anything a slump for his failures and failing to keep us safe from future terrorist attacks.

Where are you getting that from?  You did notice Bush's big bounce in NJ in 2004?

The numbers are misleading. Bush did improve greatly among his 2000 numbers in NJ, but people usually don't take into account that Gore overperformed in NJ in 2000. The actual "9/11 shift" was much lower than the numbers imply.

However, Bush is no doubt a drag in NJ now, so the 2004 numbers aren't really relevant.