Rasmussen: Bush surges to 47%
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  Rasmussen: Bush surges to 47%
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Author Topic: Rasmussen: Bush surges to 47%  (Read 3606 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« on: September 14, 2006, 11:22:03 AM »

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Bush_Job_Approval.htm
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2006, 11:24:31 AM »

Interesting, very interesting. Thanks for that.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2006, 11:51:10 AM »

I'm going to move this to US General. 

This may be a 9-11 bounce.  It may be from falling gas prices.  It may be a post Labor Day bounce from the summer polling problems.  It an be all three of them coming together and amplifying each other's impact.

The question is, will it hold?
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Whacker77
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« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2006, 11:51:35 AM »

I think that number by itself is good for Republicans, but the way it got there might be even better.  I think most pollsters will say that true movement in a tracking poll only occurs if we see three or four straight days of gains.  If the number jumped one day and stayed there until the number rolled off, then it was obviously a one day bump.  In this case, the number has consistently risen.  Unfortunately from my point of view, the anniversary of 9/11 clouds this number.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4 on: September 14, 2006, 11:53:00 AM »

It could also just be Rasmussen jumping around.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #5 on: September 14, 2006, 11:57:03 AM »

It could also just be Rasmussen jumping around.

Probably a bit of that in there no matter what.

Quote
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That is from Ras' own writeup.
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MODU
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« Reply #6 on: September 14, 2006, 12:06:49 PM »
« Edited: September 14, 2006, 12:23:35 PM by MODU »


Well, the bounce seems to have begun on 9/11, so maybe the memorials and Bush's speech later that evening stirred something in those being polled, and it has carried forward till last night.  By Monday next week, we should be able to tell if it is a lasting trend, or merely an emotional bump.

Edit:  And, just for discussion purposes, we should focus more on the percentage change, and not the 47% level itself.  A 6% change (if it is truly a national event) since 9/11 should be visible on other polls taken during the same period.  A quick glance at RCP doesn't show any other polls yet for that period.
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Mike in Maryland
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« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2006, 12:33:09 PM »


Well, the bounce seems to have begun on 9/11, so maybe the memorials and Bush's speech later that evening stirred something in those being polled, and it has carried forward till last night.  By Monday next week, we should be able to tell if it is a lasting trend, or merely an emotional bump.

Edit:  And, just for discussion purposes, we should focus more on the percentage change, and not the 47% level itself.  A 6% change (if it is truly a national event) since 9/11 should be visible on other polls taken during the same period.  A quick glance at RCP doesn't show any other polls yet for that period.

The new NBC/WSJ poll was taken from 9/8-9/11, and has him at 42% (a two-point gain from before).  Gallup had it at 39% from 9/7-10 (a slight drop from a week or two earlier).

I'd agree that the 9/11-fest in the media probably bumped it up a few points, as is evident from the Rasmussen polling, but it's doubtful that such a bounce can be sustained once that fades.  The polls show little evidence of gains for Bush or the GOP on most specific issues (except perhaps terrorism).
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adam
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« Reply #8 on: September 14, 2006, 12:47:27 PM »

I doubt it's really that high. Rasmussen has always polled Bush's approval rating rather high...this is no different. It's probably closer to 43.
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MODU
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« Reply #9 on: September 14, 2006, 01:01:28 PM »

I doubt it's really that high. Rasmussen has always polled Bush's approval rating rather high...this is no different. It's probably closer to 43.


.... which is why I said we should be looking at the percentage change, not the actual 47%.  Tongue
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« Reply #10 on: September 14, 2006, 01:35:56 PM »

It's always much higher for Bush than basically any other polling firm.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #11 on: September 14, 2006, 03:35:39 PM »

47%? No way. Still I'm not liking the direction things are going in. Funny how those gas prices started falling in the two critical months right before the election...
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MODU
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« Reply #12 on: September 14, 2006, 03:45:25 PM »



Ok, RCP has posted a new Opinion Dynamics poll for 9/12-9/13 (similar period as the Rasmussen poll), and they are showing a 2% increase in the approval rating.  Not as much as the 6% which Rasmussen is showing.  However, OD is showing a 7% decrease in the disapproval rating, so it's still possible that there is a large 9/11 bump in the polls for this week in Bush's favor.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #13 on: September 14, 2006, 05:11:21 PM »

I think he's probably really in the lower 40s (40-44). This could be a sign of a comeback though. Let's see if he blows it.
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J. J.
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« Reply #14 on: September 14, 2006, 05:54:59 PM »

There is a probable upswing, but I'd bet this is an outrider or at at least at the upper end of the MOE.
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DanielX
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« Reply #15 on: September 15, 2006, 04:28:50 PM »

47%? No way. Still I'm not liking the direction things are going in. Funny how those gas prices started falling in the two critical months right before the election...

gas prices are higher during summer vacations.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #16 on: September 15, 2006, 08:38:24 PM »

47%? No way. Still I'm not liking the direction things are going in. Funny how those gas prices started falling in the two critical months right before the election...

gas prices are higher during summer vacations.

Not that much higher. Also if anyone is wondering his approval fell two points today two points to 45% and his disapproval rose three points to 53%.
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angus
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« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2006, 08:49:27 PM »

yeah, I notice that as well.  I assume his newfound love for going to congress to speak (like when he recently asked them to give him permission to let the CIA take prisoners to a secret hole somewhere so his thugs can beat the hell out of them and make them talk), his newfound love for explaining things ("...look, I know it's not a popular war, but I believe it's the right thing to do, and we'll be in Iraq as long as I'm president..."), and his newfound love for answering questions (remember he was loathe to hold press conferences during the first four years of his presidency), that has made a difference.  Of course, US military involvement in Iraq, wanting to "redefine" geneva convention rules, and not keeping up with what your VP is saying in speeches around the country are all collossally bad ideas, but the fact that he's finally accepting the fact that even guys born into fabulously wealthy New England families have to answer for their policies is starting to resonate.  It may also be that most economic indicators are looking bright, and those economic indicators are being widely reported.  Unfortunately for the republicans, the important economic indicator of Real Wage shows a negative 0.5% decrease since January 2001.  That's going to take some spin.  But he'll pull it off.  I still say George is basically a decent guy, even though he seems to have a penchant for listening to really bad advice, and the public probably realizes that on some level.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #18 on: September 15, 2006, 08:50:26 PM »

Bush is down to 45% today.

Not unexpected. 
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #19 on: September 15, 2006, 08:54:09 PM »

Bush is down to 45% today.

Not unexpected. 

Disapproval is up three points from 50% to 53% as well.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #20 on: September 16, 2006, 05:30:58 PM »

He's down to 44%. That was just a blip on the radar. Thanks to Mr. John McCain, Mr. John Warner and Ms. Lindsay Graham. Smiley
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angus
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« Reply #21 on: September 16, 2006, 07:22:13 PM »

Let's not get carried away.  Mid 40s is still lousy.  (47, 44, 45 whatever, all are within each other's slop, statistically)  The comments weren't meant to explain why Bush is so universally loved by all mankind everywhere and regarded as a hero of the people, as he clearly isn't.  They were meant as speculation as to why he's slowly gaining approval from the dismal (almost Tony Blairish) approvals he had only a few months ago.  I'll stand by my prediciton that he'll finish his second term above 50.  Stranger things have happened.  His predecessor managed even to bounce back from an impeachment and finish his second term at around 60. 

You can all make fun of me in January 2009 if I'm wrong.  Smiley
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #22 on: September 17, 2006, 06:32:08 AM »

We'll see what today's poll brings. Then we can see what this.

Rasmussen is a good pollster.
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dazzleman
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« Reply #23 on: September 17, 2006, 07:24:08 AM »

Let's not get carried away.  Mid 40s is still lousy.  (47, 44, 45 whatever, all are within each other's slop, statistically)  The comments weren't meant to explain why Bush is so universally loved by all mankind everywhere and regarded as a hero of the people, as he clearly isn't.  They were meant as speculation as to why he's slowly gaining approval from the dismal (almost Tony Blairish) approvals he had only a few months ago.  I'll stand by my prediciton that he'll finish his second term above 50.  Stranger things have happened.  His predecessor managed even to bounce back from an impeachment and finish his second term at around 60. 

You can all make fun of me in January 2009 if I'm wrong.  Smiley

I agree with angus, though I'd point out that the approval ratings for Bush's predecessor remained high during the impeachment drama.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #24 on: September 17, 2006, 12:17:47 PM »

We'll see what today's poll brings. Then we can see what this.

Rasmussen is a good pollster.

41-57 split, right where he was before the 9-11 bounce.
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