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WalterMitty
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« on: September 14, 2006, 04:48:05 PM »
wilson, barely.
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WMS
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2006, 04:49:22 PM »
Wilson, in the range of 51-49 to 53-47.
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NewFederalist
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« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2006, 04:50:50 PM »
Is it really that close over Patricia Madrid? Yikes!
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WMS
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2006, 04:53:59 PM »
Quote from: NewFederalist on September 14, 2006, 04:50:50 PM
Is it really that close over Patricia Madrid? Yikes!

Yeah, Madrid is a crappy candidate but this is one of those national atmosphere thingies - I see it impacting Wilson's numbers, but not swinging the district (there is also plenty of state and local atmosphere stuff to partially counteract this - the Dems have been rather naughty of late). In a normal year with no national trends, Wilson would be hitting another 55-45 ish victory. Even with this, Wilson is pulling about a fifth of the Democrats...
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Sam Spade
SamSpade
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« Reply #4 on: September 14, 2006, 04:54:42 PM »
Wilson 52-47 or so.
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WMS
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: September 14, 2006, 04:55:36 PM »

Where does that 1% go to then? Wink
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #6 on: September 14, 2006, 04:58:24 PM »

I always presume there's some no-name 3rd party that'll get a dissatisfied 1%.  Correct me if I'm wrong here, cause I often am when I haven't looked up who all is on the ballot.  Smiley
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WMS
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2006, 05:03:22 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on September 14, 2006, 04:58:24 PM

I always presume there's some no-name 3rd party that'll get a dissatisfied 1%.  Correct me if I'm wrong here, cause I often am when I haven't looked up who all is on the ballot.  Smiley

There are no minor party candidates in this race. Wink There might be a write-in *thinks of a certain right-wing nut (Orlin Cole) who does write-ins for everything* but it is very rare for that to even come close to 1%. Wink Mind you, there is a highly entertaining write-in in a state house race which might be another matter, but that's another story. Cheesy
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #8 on: September 14, 2006, 05:08:49 PM »
The consensus seems to be in favour of Wilson and every poll I have seen shows her leading, but I will still predict this race will be close:

NM-1
Wilson (R) 51%
Madrid (D) 49%
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #9 on: September 14, 2006, 05:48:06 PM »
Wilson by a disputed 12 votes. Tongue
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #10 on: September 14, 2006, 05:50:38 PM »
Quote from: Senator WMS on September 14, 2006, 04:53:59 PM
Yeah, Madrid is a crappy candidate but this is one of those national atmosphere thingies -

Madrid was supposed to be a superstar candidate, so this is big.
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WMS
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: September 14, 2006, 06:19:28 PM »
Quote from: HardRCafé on September 14, 2006, 05:50:38 PM
Quote from: Senator WMS on September 14, 2006, 04:53:59 PM
Yeah, Madrid is a crappy candidate but this is one of those national atmosphere thingies -

Madrid was supposed to be a superstar candidate, so this is big.

Wink I saw that wasn't going to be the case quite some time back. Cheesy A leftist machine hack is not a superstar. Now, compared with the guy who was going to run before Madrid changed her mind and entered the race, super-leftist state senator Gerald Ortiz y Pino, she's a superstar. But only in that light. Smiley
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #12 on: September 14, 2006, 07:14:08 PM »
If the election was held today, Wilson gets 52% to Madrid's 48%.

On Nov 7th, if Iraq dominates the election, Madrid wins 51% to Wilson's 49%. If ethics problems dominate the election, the results will be Wilson's 53% to Madrid's 47%.

If you put a gun to my head and made me pick a winner, I'd go with Wilson.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
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« Reply #13 on: September 14, 2006, 07:16:04 PM »
Close, but Wilson should shade it.
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nini2287
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« Reply #14 on: September 14, 2006, 08:36:58 PM »
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #15 on: September 14, 2006, 08:37:32 PM »
I'll have the usuals - Wilson in a squeaker.
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