Each week, I receive Bob Novak's update on the House races and one continues to baffle me. He continues to list Steve Chabot as a "leaning Democrat" pickup. That really surprises me. I haven't seen him listed as vulnerable anywhere else. Political affiliations aside, does anyone really believe that he will lose? I don't see it happening.
First of all, if I am not mistaken I saw those same Novak rankings and the OH-01 District (Chabot's District) is rated as a toss-up (and only recently moved from Lean Republican), not Lean Dem. If it is rated Lean Dem, it would be the first time I have ever seen it rated that way.
Second of all, yes, I can absolutely believe it. This race has been considered competitive from the very beginning of this cycle. His challenger, John Cranley, is a widely popular Cincinnatti Councilman (I think he broke a vote record in Cincy) and he actually ran against Chabot for the seat before, and only barely lost despite being massively outspent by chabot. Every time I look at House rankings, whether it be at Cook Political, Rothenberg, Larry Sabato's "Dirty Thirty", I see OH-01 rated either Lean Repub or toss-up, so I am very surprised that you have not heard about how tight this race is before. I actually saw a poll not too long ago that had Cranley in the lead. Plus, it is Ohio, and having an "R" next to your name in Ohio in 2006 is pretty much the kiss of death. This is only 1 of 4 House Seats that Ohio Dems have a serious chance of picking up this year.
