Republican Primaries: Campaign Overview & Results

[Joe Republic]

 

R E P U B L I C A N
P R I M A R I E S


CAMPAIGN OVERVIEW & RESULTS


------------------------------------

This thread will serve as a summary of each candidate's campaign throughout the primaries, and also to provide the results of each primary election.  It'll also be used to keep track of the candidates' finances and available campaign time, as well as the number of convention delegates they'll each have attained.

The main thread where the candidates will actually receive their instructions and post their campaigns can be found here.



The Candidates


Gov. Richard G. Arage (Indiana) - Bullmoose88

Sen. Andrew Berger (Alaska) - Andrew Berger - Withdrawn

Mr. Ernest Calhoun (Minnesota) - Ernest

Gov. Andrew M.A. Cereal (Michigan) - Milk & Cereal

Gov. Justin C. Coleman (Oklahoma) - Bacon King - Withdrawn

Sen. Chris Scott (North Dakota) - MHS2002 - Withdrawn

Rep. Chris Soult (Maine) - Supersoulty

Sec. Govert Vandervoot (Arkansas) - Fezzyfestoon

Rep. James Wallace (Virginia) - Jake

Sen. Colin Wixted (Indiana) - Colin Wixted




Primary Schedule


IA: 2000 initial campaign hours

NH: 60 additional hours

Mini-Tuesday (AZ, DE, MO, NM, ND, OK, SC) 60 hours

MI & WA: 48 hours

ME: 12 hours

TN & VA: 24 hours

NV: 36 hours

WI: 36 hours

HI, ID & UT: 80 hours

Super Tuesday (CA, CT, GA, MD, MA, MN, NY, OH, RI, VT) 80 hours

FL, LA, MS & TX: 80 hours

KS: 36 hours

IL: 36 hours

AK & WY: 48 hours

CO: 288 hours

NC: 48 hours

PA: 120 hours

IN: 80 hours

NE & WV: 80 hours

AR & OR: 80 hours

KY: 80 hours

AL & SD: 80 hours

MT & NJ: 80 hours

[Joe Republic]

I O W A   C A U C U S


INTRODUCTION


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There are 25 convention delegates at stake in this caucus (out of 1,913 in total), and like every other election during primary season, they will be apportioned proportionally according to each candidate's share of the vote here.  However, as in all other primaries, candidates must reach a threshold of 15% of the vote in order to claim a share of the delegates.




Eligible Candidates & Time Availability


Gov. Richard G. Arage (Indiana) - 2000 hours; $17,050,000

Sen. Andrew Berger (Alaska) - 2000 hours; $9,650,000 - Withdrawn

Mr. Ernest Calhoun (Minnesota) - 2000 hours; $15,050,000

Gov. Andrew M.A Cereal (Michigan) - 2000 hours; $9,500,000

Gov. Justin C. Coleman (Oklahoma) - 2000 hours; $4,350,000

Sen. Chris Scott (North Dakota) - 2000 hours; $1,450,000 - Withdrawn

Rep. Chris Soult (Maine) - 2000 hours; $9,100,000

Sec. Govert Vandervoot (Arkansas) - 2000 hours; $7,150,000

Rep. James Wallace (Virginia) - 2000 hours; $4,850,000

Sen. Colin Wixted (Indiana) - 2000 hours; $4,950,000




Iowa Pre-Polls

The following poll results are based on a collection of straw polls, carried out well before the candidates effectively began their campaigns.  They are to be used as a rough guide on how the candidates fare before they begin campaigning, and not as evidence of an impending victory or loss.


Cereal 6.8%
Scott 6.3%
Wixted 5.5%
Arage 5.0%
Vandervoot 4.7%
Wallace 4.4%
Coleman 4.2%
Berger 3.4%
Soult 2.6%
Calhoun 2.1%
Undecided 55.0%




Specific Information

Some campaign activities vary in cost depending on its number of congressional districts.  Iowa has five districts, which means that the following activities will cost as follows:

• Level 1 campaign organization costs $100,000 per district, so for Iowa it'll cost $500,000 in total.
  
• Level 2 campaign organization costs $200,000 per district, so for Iowa it'll cost $1,000,000 in total.
  
• Level 3 campaign organization costs $300,000 per district, so for Iowa it'll cost $1,500,000 in total.
  
  
  
• For every three hours per district spent on general campaigning, you earn one 'point'.  So three hours multiplied by five districts equals one point for every fifteen hours spent campaigning.
  
  
  
• A level 1 campaign ad costs $50,000 per district, so for Iowa it'll cost $250,000 in total.
  
• A level 2 campaign ad costs $100,000 per district, so for Iowa it'll cost $500,000 in total.
  
• A level 1 campaign ad costs $150,000 per district, so for Iowa it'll cost $750,000 in total.

[Joe Republic]

Gov. Richard G. Arage



Iowa Caucus Campaign

2000 campaign hours available

$17,050,000 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 250 hours
  
  + $1,201,150
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district) x 5 districts
  
  - $1,500,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 648 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $750,000
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

1100 campaign hours remaining

$16,001,150 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Mr. Ernest Calhoun



Iowa Caucus Campaign

2000 campaign hours available

$15,050,000 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 0 hours
  
  + $0
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district) x 5 districts
  
  - $1,500,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 600 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $750,000
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

1394 campaign hours remaining

$12,800,000 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Gov. Andrew M.A. Cereal



Iowa Caucus Campaign

2000 campaign hours available

$9,500,000 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 200 hours
  
  + $994,930
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 1 (@ $100,000 per district) x 5 districts
  
  - $500,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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• General Campaigning
  
  - 75 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

1723 campaign hours remaining

$9,994,930 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Gov. Justin C. Coleman



Iowa Caucus Campaign

2000 campaign hours available

$4,350,000 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 0 hours
  
  + $0
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 0 (@ $0,000 per district) x 5 districts
  
  - $0
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

2000 campaign hours remaining

$4,350,000 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Rep. Chris Soult



Iowa Caucus Campaign

2000 campaign hours available

$9,100,000 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 500 hours
  
  + $2,528,310
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district) x 5 districts
  
  - $1,500,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 500 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $500,000
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

994 campaign hours remaining

$9,628,310 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Sec. Govert Vandervoot



Iowa Caucus Campaign

2000 campaign hours available

$7,150,000 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 500 hours
  
  + $2,420,970
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district) x 5 districts
  
  - $1,500,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 750 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  (- $750,000)
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

750 campaign hours remaining

$8,070,970 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Rep. James Wallace



Iowa Caucus Campaign

2000 campaign hours available

$4,850,000 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 100 hours
  
  + $503,450
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 0 (@ $0,000 per district) x 5 districts
  
  - $0
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

1900 campaign hours remaining

$5,353,450 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Sen. Colin Wixted



Iowa Caucus Campaign

2000 campaign hours available

$4,950,000 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 1000 hours
  
  + $5,012,050
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 2 (@ $200,000 per district) x 5 districts
  
  - $1,000,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 990 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $250,000
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

4 campaign hours remaining

$8,712,050 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS

With 99% of precincts reporting, I'm pleased to announce that the winner of the Republican Iowa Caucus is:


Senator Colin Wixted of Indiana!!


The full results are as follows:

Wixted 22.3%
Calhoun 20.4%
Arage 19.1%
Soult 15.7%
Vandervoot 10.8%
Cereal 8.1%
Wallace 3.6%
Coleman (Did not contest) 0.0%



ANALYSIS

Like the Democratic result, the winning candidate's margin of victory was razor-thin, and a 22% share of the vote is hardly a resounding endorsement by Iowan voters.  The campaign was also marred by the abrupt departures of Sens. Andrew Berger and Chris Scott, before their own campaigns had even begun.

Few should be too surprised by a victory for Wixted, given that he's been virtually a resident of Iowa since the campaign properly began in December.  Pundits were puzzled by his almost total devotion to campaigning in this state alone, especially since he now has only a week to lay the groundwork in New Hampshire and maintain his fragile lead.  As well as his pervasive campaigning and strong organization, three above-average speeches and a textbook TV ad helped overcome his perceived weaknesses on the core conservative issues.  He also doubled the size of his war chest during his camp-out in Iowa, which will surely help him in the weeks and months to come.

A recipe for success could well be forming in second place finisher Ernest Calhoun, who fell short of victory by only two points.  Calhoun perhaps wisely chose not to spend any valuable time expanding his already vast campaign fund, but still ensured that his organization and publicity were both fully funded to optimal levels.  Hailing from neighboring Minnesota and producing an above average radio ad helped overcome his (very thought-provoking) often lengthy and sometimes overly verbose speeches.  This is certainly one the pundits will be keeping an eye on.

Richard Arage ought not to be disappointed by his respectable third place finish.  A sufficient amount of time spent on the trail was bolstered by his vigorous campaign infrastructure, but a decent speech and average ad apparently couldn't quite overcome his perception as being fairly out of step with the conservative mainstream.  Given his immense campaign war chest, there’s definitely still hope for him yet.

Another figure who certainly shouldn't be disheartened by his result is fourth place finisher Chris Soult.  It seems that with a powerful campaign organization, a handful of respectable speeches and a stellar TV ad, the Maine congressman ought to have fared better than just enough to claim a share of the delegates.  Yet it seems that while the top three did spend more time on the campaign trail than him, Soult should feel confident that his performance ought to improve in the New Hampshire primary.  After all, not only is he from the state next door, but he's only the candidate from the entire Northeast.

Govert Vandervoot seems to have fared a little worse than expected, having scraped into the double digits.  Slightly disappointing, given that his campaign organization was just as strong as three of the four candidates above him, and he spent a considerable amount of time on the trail.  However, he also increased his campaign fund, and is the strongest of all candidates on the core conservative issues.  There's definitely hope yet.

Andrew Cereal also did worse than expected, but probably shouldn't wonder why.  His weak organization and paltry 75 hours on the trail contributed to his poor result here, and a lack of any ads didn't help much either.  However, he made a great speech and still has plenty of money left, so he could definitely still turn it around.

The only campaign activity in Iowa undertaken by James Wallace was to raise more money, which didn’t really endear him much to the voters.  A lack of any publicity certainly contributed to his dismal result.  However, he is also relatively strong on the issues, and ought to do better in more conservative states yet to come.

Justin Coleman chose not to contest the Iowa Caucus.  Pundits speculate that besides New Hampshire, Coleman will probably focus his attention on securing his home state of Oklahoma in the crucial Mini-Tuesday primaries.



DELEGATE COUNT

Iowa Caucus

Wixted – 7
Calhoun – 7
Arage – 6
Soult – 5

Totals

Wixted – 7
Calhoun – 7
Arage – 6
Soult – 5
Cereal – 0
Coleman – 0
Vandervoot – 0
Wallace – 0



POST-ELECTION SPEECHES

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[Joe Republic]

N E W   H A M P S H I R E
P R I M A R Y


INTRODUCTION


------------------------------------

There are 17 convention delegates at stake in this primary (out of 1,913 in total), and like every other election during primary season, they will be apportioned proportionally according to each candidate's share of the vote here.  However, as in all other primaries, candidates must reach a threshold of 15% of the vote in order to claim a share of the delegates.




Eligible Candidates & Time Availability


Gov. Richard G. Arage (Indiana) - 1160 hours; $16,001,150

Mr. Ernest Calhoun (Minnesota) - 1454 hours; $12,800,000

Gov. Andrew M.A Cereal (Michigan) - 1783 hours; $9,994,930

Gov. Justin C. Coleman (Oklahoma) - 2060 hours; $4,350,000 - Withdrawn

Rep. Chris Soult (Maine) - 1054 hours; $9,628,310

Sec. Govert Vandervoot (Arkansas) - 810 hours; $8,070,970

Rep. James Wallace (Virginia) - 1960 hours; $5,353,450

Sen. Colin Wixted (Indiana) - 64 hours; $8,712,050




New Hampshire Pre-Polls

The following poll results are based on a collection of straw polls, carried out well before the candidates effectively began their campaigns.  They are to be used as a rough guide on how the candidates fare before they begin campaigning, and not as evidence of an impending victory or loss.


Soult 9.5%
Arage 7.5%
Wixted 7.4%
Cereal 7.2%
Coleman 6.8%
Wallace 5.0%
Vandervoot 4.6%
Calhoun 2.3%
Undecided 50.0%




Specific Information

Some campaign activities vary in cost depending on its number of congressional districts.  New Hampshire has two districts, which means that the following activities will cost as follows:

• Level 1 campaign organization costs $100,000 per district, so for New Hampshire it'll cost $200,000 in total.
  
• Level 2 campaign organization costs $200,000 per district, so for New Hampshire it'll cost $400,000 in total.
  
• Level 3 campaign organization costs $300,000 per district, so for New Hampshire it'll cost $600,000 in total.
  
  
  
• For every three hours per district spent on general campaigning, you earn one 'point'.  So three hours multiplied by two districts equals one point for every six hours spent campaigning.
  
  
  
• A level 1 campaign ad costs $50,000 per district, so for New Hampshire it'll cost $100,000 in total.
  
• A level 2 campaign ad costs $100,000 per district, so for New Hampshire it'll cost $200,000 in total.
  
• A level 3 campaign ad costs $150,000 per district, so for New Hampshire it'll cost $300,000 in total.

[Joe Republic]

NEW HAMPSHIRE
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY DEBATE

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[Joe Republic]

Gov. Richard G. Arage



New Hampshire Primary Campaign

1160 campaign hours available

$16,001,150 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 0 hours
  
  + $0
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 2 districts)
  
  - $600,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 600 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $300,000
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  (- $300,000)
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

560 campaign hours remaining

$15,101,150 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Mr. Ernest Calhoun



New Hampshire Primary Campaign

1454 campaign hours available

$12,800,000 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 0 hours
  
  + $0
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 2 districts)
  
  - $600,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 480 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $300,000
  
  

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  - $300,000
  
  

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  - $300,000
  
  
  

964 campaign hours remaining

$11,300,000 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Gov. Andrew M.A. Cereal



New Hampshire Primary Campaign

1783 campaign hours available

$9,994,930 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 200 hours
  
  + $948,260
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 2 districts)
  
  - $600,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 600 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $300,000
  
  

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  - $300,000
  
  

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  - $300,000
  
  
  

979 campaign hours remaining

$9,443,190 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Rep. Chris Soult



New Hampshire Primary Campaign

1054 campaign hours available

$9,628,310 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 100 hours
  
  + $531,860
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 2 districts)
  
  - $600,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 400 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $300,000
  
  

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  - $300,000
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

552 campaign hours remaining

$8,960,170 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Sec. Govert Vandervoot



New Hampshire Primary Campaign

810 campaign hours available

$8,070,970 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 0 hours
  
  + $0
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 2 districts)
  
  - $600,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 200 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $300,000
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

610 campaign hours remaining

$7,170,970 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Rep. James Wallace



New Hampshire Primary Campaign

1960 campaign hours available

$5,353,450 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 100 hours
  
  + $499,410
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 0 (@ $000,000 per district x 2 districts)
  
  - $0
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

1860 campaign hours remaining

$5,852,860 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

Sen. Colin Wixted



New Hampshire Primary Campaign

64 campaign hours available

$8,712,050 in funds

• Fundraising
  
  - 0 hours
  
  + $0
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 2 districts)
  
  - $600,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 58 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $300,000
  
  

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  - $300,000
  
  

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  - $300,000
  
  
  

0 campaign hours remaining

$7,212,050 in funds remaining