Republican Primaries: Campaign Overview & Results

[Joe Republic]

NEW HAMPSHIRE
PRIMARY RESULTS

With 99% of precincts reporting, I'm pleased to announce that the winner of the Republican New Hampshire primary is:


Representative Chris Soult of Maine!!


The full results are as follows:

Soult 21.9%
Cereal 21.8%
Calhoun 18.7%
Wixted 17.8%
Arage 13.7%
Vandervoot 5.2%
Wallace 0.8%



ANALYSIS

Another hard-fought battleground state ended with the top finishers with only tiny degrees of difference between them.  Indeed, Congressman Chris Soult's margin of victory was a tiny 0.1%, and he only gained the support of around one in five voters.  It would seem that the first two stops on the primary schedule haven't given us any idea of a front-runner, and the whole race is still wide open.

The televised primary debate was certainly a battle of wits, and although it got a little dry in parts, each participant in attendance performed excellently.  Much like the election results, there was no clear winner.

Rep. Soult's success was due largely to him being the only candidate from the entire Northeast, although credit where credit is due, he ran a powerful campaign as well.  A strong position on the issues, a stellar debate performance, an excellent speech and ads, and a reasonable amount of time spent on the trail all helped turn his fourth-place finish in Iowa into a razor-thin victory here.

Governor Andrew Cereal certainly caused upset by very nearly snatching a win here.  Another excellent performance in the debate, coupled with a lengthy camp-out on the campaign trail helped contribute to this surprising improvement on his fifth-place finish in Iowa.  His ads were sometimes a little hit-and-miss, but they each had a positive effect overall.  Could this be one to keep an eye on?

Ernest Calhoun ought to win an award for the most tireless campaigner in the entire race.  A series of effective speeches and ads really helped to boost his name recognition and overcome his lack of political experience.  However, that last factor is still a critical problem hanging over Calhoun's campaign, and he would do well to better his long-term strategy in defeating that.  In any case, despite his slip from second in Iowa to third here, he remains joint first in the delegate totals.

Senator Colin Wixted may be slightly disappointed that his narrow lead in Iowa has dissolved into fourth place in New Hampshire, but he certainly put in a great deal of effort to stay in the top tier.  Three very high-quality speeches and three exceptional ads kept him in prime position, but a lack of time spent on the campaign trail (due to the unavailability of it) held him back.

Governor Richard Arage slipped down a few notches since Iowa, and failed to win any delegates this time.  A lack of any notable speeches and only one mediocre ad were mainly responsible for this, but a great deal of time spent on the trail and an excellent debate appearance stopped him from completely losing track.  With a huge war-chest still behind him, there may well be life in this one yet.

Secretary of Commerce Govert Vandervoot also failed to spark much interest in his campaign, due to a limited amount of time spent on the trail, a single fairly mixed-message ad, and a no-show at the televised debate.  But with the next few states being more favorable to a man of his location and ideology, he could still boost some life into this flagging campaign.

Representative James Wallace chose to effectively skip New Hampshire, as he did in Iowa, save to do a little more fundraising here.  Pundits expect him to really kick in in the later states that would be more favorable to his campaign from the outset.



DELEGATE COUNT

New Hampshire Primary

Soult - 5
Cereal - 5
Calhoun - 4
Wixted - 4

Totals

Wixted – 11
Calhoun – 11
Soult – 10
Arage – 6
Cereal – 5
Vandervoot – 0
Wallace – 0



POST-ELECTION SPEECHES

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[Joe Republic]

 

M I N I   T U E S D A Y
P R I M A R I E S


INTRODUCTION


------------------------------------

Of the seven states now in play, there are a total of 192 convention delegates at stake (out of 1,913 in total), and like every other election during primary season, they will be apportioned proportionally according to each candidate's share of the vote in each state.  However, as in all other primaries, candidates must reach a threshold of 15% of the vote in order to claim a share of the delegates.




Eligible Candidates & Time Availability


Gov. Richard G. Arage (Indiana) - 620 hours; $15,101,150 - Withdrawn

Mr. Ernest Calhoun (Minnesota) - 1024 hours; $11,300,000

Gov. Andrew M.A Cereal (Michigan) - 1039 hours; $9,443,190

Rep. Chris Soult (Maine) - 612 hours; $8,960,170

Sec. Govert Vandervoot (Arkansas) - 670 hours; $7,170,970

Rep. James Wallace (Virginia) - 1920 hours; $5,852,860

Sen. Colin Wixted (Indiana) - 60 hours; $7,212,050





Specific Information

Some campaign activities vary in cost depending on its number of congressional districts.  This is how much the following activities will cost in each state during this event:

• ARIZONA
  
  30 delegates are at stake.  The state has 8 electoral districts.
  
  Each individual level of campaign organization here will cost $800,000 (L1 = $800k; L2 = $1.6m; L3 = $2.4m).  Each level of campaign ad funding will cost $400,000 (L1 = $400k; L2 = $800k; L3 = $1.2m).
  
  
  
• DELAWARE
  
  12 delegates are at stake.  The state has 1 electoral district.
  
  Each individual level of campaign organization here will cost $100,000 (L1 = $100k; L2 = $200k; L3 = $300k).  Each level of campaign ad funding will cost $50,000 (L1 = $50k; L2 = $100k; L3 = $150k).
  
  
  
• MISSOURI
  
  35 delegates are at stake.  The state has 9 electoral districts.
  
  Each individual level of campaign organization here will cost $900,000 (L1 = $900k; L2 = $1.8m; L3 = $2.7m).  Each level of campaign ad funding will cost $450,000 (L1 = $450k; L2 = $900k; L3 = $1.35m).
  
  
  
• NEW MEXICO
  
  21 delegates are at stake.  The state has 3 electoral districts.
  
  Each individual level of campaign organization here will cost $300,000 (L1 = $300k; L2 = $600k; L3 = $900k).  Each level of campaign ad funding will cost $150,000 (L1 = $150k; L2 = $300k; L3 = $450k).
  
  
  
• NORTH DAKOTA
  
  19 delegates are at stake.  The state has 1 electoral district.
  
  Each individual level of campaign organization here will cost $100,000 (L1 = $100k; L2 = $200k; L3 = $300k).  Each level of campaign ad funding will cost $50,000 (L1 = $50k; L2 = $100k; L3 = $150k).
  
  
  
• OKLAHOMA
  
  38 delegates are at stake.  The state has 5 electoral districts.
  
  Each individual level of campaign organization here will cost $500,000 (L1 = $500k; L2 = $1m; L3 = $1.5m).  Each level of campaign ad funding will cost $250,000 (L1 = $250k; L2 = $500k; L3 = $750k).
  
  
  
• SOUTH CAROLINA
  
  37 delegates are at stake.  The state has 6 electoral districts.
  
  Each individual level of campaign organization here will cost $600,000 (L1 = $600k; L2 = $1.2m; L3 = $1.8m).  Each level of campaign ad funding will cost $300,000 (L1 = $300k; L2 = $600k; L3 = $900k).
  

[Joe Republic]

Mr. Ernest Calhoun



Mini-Tuesday Campaign

1024 campaign hours available

$11,300,000 in funds


Fundraising

- 485 hours

+ $5,144,980


Endorsements

Ilikeverin + $100,000

ARIZONA

• Organization
  
  Level 2 (@ $200,000 per district x 8 districts)
  
  - $1,600,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 120 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $400,000
  
  

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  - $400,000
  
  
  
  

[Joe Republic]

ARIZONA (Cont.)

• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $400,000
  
  
  
  
  
  DELAWARE
  
  
  
  
• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 1 district)
  
  - $300,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 24 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $100,000
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  
  

[Joe Republic]

MISSOURI

• Organization
  
  Level 2 (@ $200,000 per district x 9 districts)
  
  - $1,800,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 162 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $900,000
  
  

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  - $450,000
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  
  

[Joe Republic]

NEW MEXICO

• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 3 districts)
  
  - $900,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 162 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $150,000
  
  

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  - $300,000
  
  
  

[Joe Republic]

NEW MEXICO (Cont.)

• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $150,000
  
  
  
  
  

NORTH DAKOTA

• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 1 district)
  
  - $300,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 24 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $50,000
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $50,000
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  

[Joe Republic]

OKLAHOMA

• Organization
  
  Level 0 (@ $000,000 per district x 0 districts)
  
  - $0
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 15 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  

[Joe Republic]

SOUTH CAROLINA

• Organization
  
  Level 0 (@ $000,000 per district x 0 districts)
  
  - $0
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 18 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  
  
  

2 campaign hours remaining

$8,294,980 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

 

Gov. Andrew M.A. Cereal



Mini-Tuesday Campaign

1039 campaign hours available

$9,443,190 in funds


Fundraising

- 150 hours

+ $786,020

ARIZONA

• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 8 districts)
  
  - $2,400,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 150 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $400,000
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  
  
  
  

DELAWARE

• Organization
  
  Level 0 (@ $000,000 per district x 0 districts)
  
  - $0
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  
  
  
  

MISSOURI

• Organization
  
  Level 0 (@ $000,000 per district x 0 districts)
  
  - $0
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  
  
  
  

NEW MEXICO

• Organization
  
  Level 0 (@ $000,000 per district x 0 districts)
  
  - $0
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  
  
  

NORTH DAKOTA

• Organization
  
  Level 0 (@ $000,000 per district x 0 districts)
  
  - $0
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  
  
  
  

OKLAHOMA

• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 5 districts)
  
  - $1,500,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 200 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $750,000
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  
  
  

SOUTH CAROLINA

• Organization
  
  Level 0 (@ $000,000 per district x 0 districts)
  
  - $0
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  
  
  

485 campaign hours remaining

$5,179,210 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

 

Rep. Chris Soult



Mini-Tuesday Campaign

612 campaign hours available

$8,960,170 in funds


Fundraising

- 0 hours

+ $0


Endorsements

Gov. Richard G. Arage (R-IN) + $8,211,135

thefactor + $500,000
Ebowed + $750,000
Ilikeverin + $764,720
Dr. Cynic + $500,000
WMS + $2,000,000

ARIZONA

• Organization
  
  Level 2 (@ $200,000 per district x 8 districts)
  
  - $1,600,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

[Joe Republic]

ARIZONA (Cont.)

• General Campaigning
  
  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $400,000
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  
  

DELAWARE

• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 1 district)
  
  - $300,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 100 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  
  
  

MISSOURI

• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 9 districts)
  
  - $2,700,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  
  

[Joe Republic]

MISSOURI (Cont.)

• Speeches
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 100 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $900,000
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $900,000
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  
  

[Joe Republic]

NEW MEXICO

• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 3 districts)
  
  - $900,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 150 hours
  
  
  

[Joe Republic]

NEW MEXICO (cont.)

• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $300,000
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $300,000
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  
  
  

NORTH DAKOTA

• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 1 district)
  
  - $300,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 150 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  
  
  

[Joe Republic]

OKLAHOMA

• Organization
  
  Level 0 (@ $000,000 per district x 0 districts)
  
  - $0
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - $0
  
  
  
  
  

SOUTH CAROLINA

• Organization
  
  Level 0 (@ $000,000 per district x 0 districts)
  
  - $0
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

  You must be logged in to read this quote.

  - 2 hours
  
  

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116 campaign hours remaining

$13,086,025 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

 

Sec. Govert Vandervoot



Mini-Tuesday Campaign

670 campaign hours available

$7,170,970 in funds


Fundraising

- 0 hours

+ $0


Endorsements

Tredrick + $3,000,000

ARIZONA

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DELAWARE

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MISSOURI

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NEW MEXICO

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NORTH DAKOTA

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OKLAHOMA

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SOUTH CAROLINA

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670 campaign hours remaining

$10,170,970 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

 

Rep. James Wallace



Mini-Tuesday Campaign

1920 campaign hours available

$5,852,860 in funds


Fundraising

- 0 hours

+ $0

ARIZONA

• Organization
  
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  - $0
  
  
  
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DELAWARE

• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 1 district)
  
  - $300,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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• General Campaigning
  
  - 120 hours
  
  
  
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  - $150,000
  
  

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MISSOURI

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NEW MEXICO

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NORTH DAKOTA

• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $000,000 per district x 1 district)
  
  - $300,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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• General Campaigning
  
  - 120 hours
  
  
  
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  - $150,000
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

[Joe Republic]

OKLAHOMA

• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 5 districts)
  
  - $1,500,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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• General Campaigning
  
  - 360 hours
  
  
  
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  - $500,000
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  
  

SOUTH CAROLINA

• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 6 districts)
  
  - $1,800,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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• General Campaigning
  
  - 360 hours
  
  
  
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952 campaign hours remaining

$1,302,860 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

 

Sen. Colin Wixted



Mini-Tuesday Campaign

60 campaign hours available

$7,212,050 in funds


Fundraising

- 0 hours

+ $0


Endorsements

Sen. Andrew Berger (R-AK) + $4,825,000

Ebowed + $500,000
Ilikeverin + $314,160

ARIZONA

• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 8 districts)
  
  - $2,400,000
  
  
  
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  - 10 hours
  
  
  
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DELAWARE

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  - $200,000
  
  
  
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MISSOURI

• Organization
  
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  - $2,700,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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NEW MEXICO

• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 3 districts)
  
  - $900,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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NORTH DAKOTA

• Organization
  
  Level 1 (@ $100,000 per district x 1 district)
  
  - $100,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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• General Campaigning
  
  - 5 hours
  
  
  
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OKLAHOMA

• Organization
  
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  - $1,000,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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SOUTH CAROLINA

• Organization
  
  Level 1 (@ $100,000 per district x 6 districts)
  
  - $600,000
  
  
  
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5 campaign hours remaining

$4,951,210 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

MINI-TUESDAY PRIMARIES RESULTS

ARIZONA

With 99% of precincts reporting, I'm pleased to announce that the winner is:


Rep. Chris Soult of Maine!!


The full results are as follows:

Soult 29.0%
Cereal 20.7%
Calhoun 19.4%
Wixted 14.2%
Vandervoot 8.5%
Wallace 8.2%



DELAWARE

With 99% of precincts reporting, I'm pleased to announce that the winner is:


Rep. James Wallace of Virginia!!


The full results are as follows:

Wallace 31.5%
Soult 24.2%
Calhoun 17.2%
Wixted 12.2%
Cereal 9.9%
Vandervoot 5.0%



MISSOURI

With 99% of precincts reporting, I'm pleased to announce that the winner is:


Rep. Chris Soult of Maine!!


The full results are as follows:

Soult 33.8%
Calhoun 19.8%
Wixted 14.1%
Cereal 13.9%
Vandervoot 12.5%
Wallace 6.0%



NEW MEXICO

With 99% of precincts reporting, I'm pleased to announce that the winner is:


Rep. Chris Soult of Maine!!


The full results are as follows:

Soult 42.1%
Calhoun 23.5%
Wixted 11.2%
Cereal 10.3%
Vandervoot 6.6%
Wallace 6.4%



NORTH DAKOTA

With 99% of precincts reporting, I'm pleased to announce that the winner is:


Rep. Chris Soult of Maine!!


The full results are as follows:

Soult 28.7%
Wallace 25.6%
Calhoun 20.0%
Wixted 10.2%
Cereal 9.5%
Vandervoot 6.1%



OKLAHOMA

With 99% of precincts reporting, I'm pleased to announce that the winner is:


Rep. James Wallace of Virginia!!


The full results are as follows:

Wallace 31.1%
Cereal 27.1%
Vandervoot 15.3%
Wixted 12.7%
Soult 9.3%
Calhoun 4.6%



SOUTH CAROLINA

With 99% of precincts reporting, I'm pleased to announce that the winner is:


Rep. James Wallace of Virginia!!


The full results are as follows:

Wallace 32.7%
Vandervoot 17.9%
Soult 15.2%
Wixted 14.8%
Cereal 14.0%
Calhoun 5.4%



ANALYSIS

The Republican Mini-Tuesday primaries were hard-fought and often bitter, and provided a few surprises, cheers and tears.  After winning four of the seven states, Chris Soult has taken a clear lead in the delegate totals.  However, with the departures of Ernest Calhoun and Colin Wixted and their endorsement of Andrew Cereal, this race is certainly not being called yet.

Chris Soult's impressive campaigning was rivalled only by Ernest Calhoun, and the two men even engaged in a damaging war of words with each other in several states.  A number of powerful speeches and ads helped thrust Soult ahead, but a lack of any kind of activity in Oklahoma contributed to him sinking into single digits there.  Similarly, a victory in Delaware might have been assured if he had produced a few more key speeches and an ad or two.

Following Calhoun and Wixted's endorsement, Andrew Cereal has now reached second place in the delegate count.  Despite a lack of significant speeches or ads, he received second place in Arizona and Oklahoma (the latter of which was his strongest showing so far).  Pundits suggest that his superior organization in key states was partly responsible for this.  However, with a financial boost from those two key endorsements, as well as the next campaign stop including his own Michigan, could a late turn-around be on its way?

Ernest Calhoun will probably be disappointed not to have won any primaries, and it certainly wasn't for lack of effort.  Indeed, the Minnesotan ran a superb campaign from start to finish, but he did sometimes suffer from an excess of wordiness.  His performance today was somewhat mixed, spanning from 24% in New Mexico to 5% in Oklahoma.  This would appear to be more to do with his opponents' activities than any particular inconsistency on his part, however.

A particularly astonishing reversal of fortunes came from James Wallace, whose poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire were supplanted by convincing wins in South Carolina, Oklahoma and Delaware.  Choosing to focus on those states plus North Dakota (where he came a close second) has apparently paid off, and he is now third overall in the delegate totals.  Pundits are speculating a concentrated 'Southern strategy' for the Virginia congressman in future primaries.

Govert Vandervoot didn't appear to improve his performance thus far in any way today.  A lack of any campaigning anywhere in these states was the main cause of this.  However, his relative strength on the issues, experience and regional advantage were enough to boost him into second place in South Carolina and third in Oklahoma.  He'll need to pull off something special to turn it around now, but at least he still has the money to do it.

Colin Wixted reached a disappointing end of the road today, having started out so well with his win in Iowa.  A rushed visit to a handful of states and a lack of any speeches or ads ensured that he failed to win a share of the delegates in any states.  Interestingly, the closest he came to doing so was in South Carolina.  In any case, his departure ought to serve as a careful reminder to future candidates to not focus all of their energies just one state at the start of the schedule.



DELEGATE COUNT

Arizona

Soult: 13
Cereal: 9
Calhoun: 8


Delaware

Wallace: 5
Soult: 4
Calhoun: 3


Missouri

Soult: 22
Calhoun: 13


New Mexico

Soult: 13
Calhoun: 8


North Dakota

Soult: 7
Wallace: 7
Calhoun: 5


Oklahoma

Wallace: 16
Cereal: 14
Vandervoot: 8


South Carolina

Wallace: 18
Vandervoot: 10
Soult: 9


TOTALS

Soult: 81
Cereal: 52
Calhoun: 48 ( -> Cereal)
Wallace: 46
Vandervoot: 18
Wixted: 11
Arage: 6 ( -> Soult)

Unaffiliated: 27



POST-ELECTION SPEECHES

Removed due to lack of space.

[Joe Republic]

 

M I C H I G A N   &
W A S H I N G T O N


INTRODUCTION


------------------------------------

Of the two states now in play, there are a total of 72 convention delegates at stake (out of 1,913 in total), and like every other election during primary season, they will be apportioned proportionally according to each candidate's share of the vote in each state.  However, as in all other primaries, candidates must reach a threshold of 15% of the vote in order to claim a share of the delegates.




Eligible Candidates & Time Availability


Mr. Ernest Calhoun (Minnesota) - 485 hours; $8,294,980 - Withdrawn

Gov. Andrew M.A Cereal (Michigan) - 533 hours; $5,179,210

Rep. Chris Soult (Maine) - 164 hours; $13,086,025

Sec. Govert Vandervoot (Arkansas) - 718 hours; $10,170,970 - Withdrawn

Rep. James Wallace (Virginia) - 1000 hours; $1,302,860

Sen. Colin Wixted (Indiana) - 53 hours; $4,951,210 - Withdrawn





Specific Information

Some campaign activities vary in cost depending on its number of congressional districts.  This is how much the following activities will cost in each state during this event:

• MICHIGAN
  
  58 delegates are at stake.  The state has 15 electoral districts.
  
  Each individual level of campaign organization here will cost $1,500,000 (L1 = $1.5M; L2 = $3m; L3 = $4.5m).  Each level of campaign ad funding will cost $750,000 (L1 = $750k; L2 = $1.5m; L3 = $2.25m).
  
  
  
• WASHINGTON
  
  14 delegates are at stake.  The state has 9 electoral districts.
  
  Each individual level of campaign organization here will cost $900,000 (L1 = $900k; L2 = $1.8m; L3 = $2.7m).  Each level of campaign ad funding will cost $450,000 (L1 = $450k; L2 = $900k; L3 = $1.35m).
  
  
  

[Joe Republic]

 

Gov. Andrew M.A Cereal



Michigan & Washington Campaigns

533 campaign hours available

$5,179,210 in funds


Fundraising

- 0 hours

+ $0


Endorsements

Ernest Calhoun (R-MN) + $4,147,490
Sen. Colin Wixted (R-IN) + $2,475,605

MICHIGAN

• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 15 districts)
  
  - $4,500,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 70 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  
  
  

WASHINGTON

• Organization
  
  Level 2 (@ $200,000 per district x 9 districts)
  
  - $1,800,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  

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  - 0 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 180 hours
  
  
  
• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  

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  - $0
  
  
  
  

279 campaign hours remaining

$5,502,305 in funds remaining

[Joe Republic]

 

Rep. Chris Soult



Michigan & Washington Campaigns

164 campaign hours available

$13,086,025 in funds


Fundraising

- 0 hours

+ $0


Endorsements

Sec. Govert Vandervoot + $5,085,485

MICHIGAN

• Organization
  
  Level 3 (@ $300,000 per district x 15 districts)
  
  - $4,500,000
  
  
  
• Speeches
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  

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  - 2 hours
  
  
  
• General Campaigning
  
  - 30 hours
  
  
  
  
  

[Joe Republic]

MICHIGAN (Cont.)

• Campaign Ads
  
  

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  - $150,000
  
  

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  - $150,000
  
  

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  - $0