My 2006 Senatorial Prediction Thread
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Author Topic: My 2006 Senatorial Prediction Thread  (Read 1614 times)
© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« on: September 17, 2006, 11:58:58 AM »
« edited: October 02, 2006, 10:33:48 AM by © Boss Tweed »
Solid D

California
Delaware
Florida
Hawaii
Massachusetts
Michigan
Nebraska
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Likely D

Pennsylvania*
Minnesota
Washington
Montana*
Maryland

Lean D

Ohio*

Tossup D

Missouri*
New Jersey
Tennessee*
Rhode Island*

Tossup R

None

Lean R

Virginia

Likely R

None

Solid R

Arizona
Indiana
Maine
Mississippi
Nevada
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

Solid I

Vermont

Lean I

Connecticut***

----------------------------------------

* = Democratic Pickup
** = Republican Pickup
*** = Independent Pickup

----------------------------------------

Projected Senate Allignment

49 Democratic 49 Republican 2 Independent

Comments are welcome.
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Nym90
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2006, 12:01:20 PM »
Seems quite reasonable, although I'd put Tennessee as Tossup R rather than Lean R.

I still think Menendez will pull through when all is said and done (Bush will pull Kean down enough to cost him the race), although recent polling backs up your view of this race more than mine, so I really can't quibble.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2006, 12:25:41 PM »
Acknowledging Kean is the favorite and you predicting him to win shows your predictions are not blindly partisan.  I agree that PA is lean Dem now, but don't you think it will become at least tossup?
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2006, 04:31:40 PM »
tweed you have ny and indiana right...that is about it.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2006, 06:26:09 PM »
Quote from: WalterMitty on September 17, 2006, 04:31:40 PM
tweed you have ny and indiana right...that is about it.

You should make one of these with all of your f'ed up predictions.  It'd have decent comedy value.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2006, 10:56:12 AM »
Plausible, though I would give Missouri to the Republicans and New Jersey to the Democrats. The party strength there I expect to work its wonders. But that's just me, it's fully reasonable to think the opposite.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2006, 11:41:08 AM »
09/22

Shift Maryland from Likely D to Lean D
Shift Pennsylvania from Lean D to Likely D
Shift Rhode Island from Tossup D to Lean D
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SPQR
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« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2006, 05:52:44 PM »
I'd move Arizona to Likely R,last polls weren't good for the GOP.Also,Washington is VERY safe D.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2006, 01:08:58 PM »
10/01

Change Montana from Lean D to Likely D
Change Marlyand from Lean D to Likely D
Change Tennessee from Lean R to Tossup R
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2006, 10:32:39 AM »
10/02

Change Rhode Island from Lean D to Tossup D
Change New Jersey from Tossup R to Tossup D
Change Tennessee from Tossup R to Tossup D
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