Running Mates (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 30, 2024, 08:20:58 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  Running Mates (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Running Mates  (Read 15601 times)
jravnsbo
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,888


« on: January 22, 2004, 06:59:25 PM »

Welcome!

Hard to tell who will be VP until Nominee is picked.  Some like Sabato don't think Breaux would appeal outside of LA.  Just not known well enough.

GRaham of FL wants it badly.  Then you have to look at Edwards and Clark ( but they have both said no already-we'll see)  Plus now some are mentioning Gephardt.


I'm new to this forum as a poster, but have been reading the stuff here for quite some time.  It's all good!

I wanted to find out from you what your predictions are in terms of possible  running mates for Kerry, Clark, Edwards and Dean.

If Kerry is the candidate, does anyone think he'll pick Senator John Breaux from Louisiana as his running mate?    My understanding is that Breaux is not seeking re-election for Senate, but remains enormously popular in Louisiana.  Is he the right guy to bring 1-2 Southern states back into the Democrats' column (Arkansas and/or Louisiana)?

Per my electoral calculations, if Kerry can win the Gore states minus Minnesota (which I think has swung to the right), but can pick up Arizona or Nevada, West Virginia or New Hampshire and Arkansas and Louisiana, then he can win the presidency.   It's very tough, but do-able.

Thanks for your feedback,
HoopsCubs

Logged
jravnsbo
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,888


« Reply #1 on: January 22, 2004, 07:06:00 PM »

LA - yes all Dem but all Conservative
to moderate ones.  as is much of the south.

AZ--well Mccain is up for reelectiona nd already well on board to campaign for Bush.

NV- been trending GOP.  Gov won in a landslide in 2002, and won the new House seat there





Welcome! I am not sure about running mates though. I think whoever gets nominated should focus on the steel states: PA, OH and WV. That's the key to the election. Then comes the rest of the mid-west and some Southern states that lean Dem.

Thank you for the welcome.  I can see PA and WV voting for a  Democrat in 2004.  After all, Gore won PA in 2000 (thanks to heavy voter turnout from Philly inner city), and Clinton won WV with a majority vote in 1996, so it's very possible.  OH looks very tough to me.  Sure, they have been hit hardest with the loss of jobs, and several counties tend to be trending Democratic.  Still, I think Bush wins Ohio.  I hope I am wrong.  I think the Dems need to look very closely at AZ and NV - AZ electing a female for governor in 2002 is an interesting sign;  also, Gore came very close in NV - a better voter turnout in Clark county could get it done.  Also, let's not forget that Clinton won Louisiana with a majority vote in 1996.  The right ticket and the right message could get it done.  Aren't both of their senators and their governor Democrats?

With best regards,
HoopsCubs
   
Logged
jravnsbo
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,888


« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2004, 12:33:32 AM »

Oh me too!  A Massachussets liberal with a rcord that is close to Ted Kennedy's (see below) and an inexperienced trial lawyer.  


i love the idea of the John/John ticket


Kerry-Kennedy Ties Not Just Geographic

WASHINGTON — Sen. John Kerry may stress a centrist stance while trying to woo primary voters on the campaign trail, but his voting record resembles that of one of the most liberal lawmakers in the Senate — chief backer and Massachusetts' Democratic dean, Edward Kennedy.

"He's a dyed-in-the-wool liberal. He's pretty much textbook, as liberal as you can get," said Tripp Baird, director of Senate relations for the conservative Heritage Foundation. "I don't care how you slice and dice his voting record, there is no way he is going to be able to avoid it."

Kerry, 63, has enjoyed the active support of Kennedy, 71, on the recent campaign trail, particularly in Iowa, where Kennedy lost his own caucus bid for president 23 years ago. Kerry won Monday's caucuses with 38 percent of the vote.

But Kennedy still throws around considerable political muscle, and helped with the final thrust on Kerry's campaign, rallying audiences on Sunday on Kerry's behalf during stops in Des Moines, Waterloo and Iowa City. He then introduced Kerry as the next president during Kerry's Iowa victory speech on Monday night.

Aside from sharing the same zip code, the two men both have strong liberal records, especially when it comes to domestic issues like taxes, the death penalty, the environment, abortion and gay rights.

Kerry's ratings with conservative and liberal organizations do not radically differ from the other senators in the race, John Edwards of North Carolina and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut. But according to the National Journal scorecard, Kennedy and Kerry vote decidedly more liberal on social issues, being weighed as 82 percent liberal in 2002 compared to Lieberman with 52 percent and Edwards with 56 percent.

But political observers say to inextricably link the two men is to ignore the differences in the two records. Where their votes might fall on the same side of the partisan line, Kerry's positions have often been less far-left than Kennedy's, especially on trade and foreign policy.

"[Kerry] has been a free trader, he's generally supported trade expansion. He's been a fiscal disciplinarian and he's supported some really tough education reforms," said Will Marshall, president of the Progressive Policy Institute, the think tank of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council.

"In a lot of ways they are going to have similar records as all Democrats have similar records," Marshall said. "But, I would say that, in general, Kerry has shown a centrist and independent instinct and has not been as closely identified with the constellation of special interests groups that work with so many Democrats on the Hill."

The most striking difference, perhaps, is the senators' positions on the war in Iraq — Kennedy voted against the resolution authorizing the war and Kerry supported it. His pro-war position has forced Kerry to spend much of the primary campaign season explaining why he approved the resolution and criticizing President Bush for not getting the support of the United Nations before heading into battle.

On taxes, both Kerry and Kennedy voted against the Bush tax cuts, but while Kennedy has talked of repealing all of them, Kerry has made maintaining cuts for the middle class a central theme. Both senators have no great standing with taxpayers' organizations, however.

"They're pretty much two peas in a pod when it comes to spending," said David Keating, executive director of the conservative Club for Growth. "If you like Ted Kennedy, you will like John Kerry on spending."

Keating rebuts arguments that Kerry is a fiscal disciplinarian, venturing to say that "Kerry is leading the pack" as a "fiscal liberalist" even more so than Kennedy, who has been in office since 1962.

The National Journal reports that Kerry voted liberal 95 percent of the time on economic issues in 2002, while Kennedy voted liberal 85 percent in the same period. Meanwhile, the National Taxpayer Union gave Kerry an 18 percent rating in 2002, slightly better than its rating of 13 percent for Kennedy.

Both Kerry and Kennedy voted against confirming their former colleague, Sen. John Ashcroft, as Bush's attorney general. In the 107th Congress, they both voted against barring gays from leading Boy Scout (search) troops and voted for allowing abortions in overseas military hospitals. They both voted against drilling for oil in the Alaskan Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

The Almanac of American Politics says Kerry, a Yale University graduate and lawyer, came to office in 1984 with "the reputation of a strong liberal." He first made a name for himself in 1971 when he returned from the Vietnam War a decorated Navy officer and testified in Senate hearings against U.S war policy and what he described as rampant war crimes committed by U.S. soldiers in Vietnam.

Liberal groups have awarded positive marks for the two senators. In 2002, the Americans for Democratic Action gave Kennedy and Kerry grades of 100 percent and 85 percent, respectively. The American Civil Liberties Union gave both men a rating of 60, and the League of Conservation Voters gave Kerry a 94 percent rating, and Kennedy 82 percent, in the same period.

Both men are Catholics, but received low marks from the Catholic Family Organization based on their recent votes regarding abortion. Both voted against the Partial-Birth Abortion Ban of 2003 and for failed measures supporting access to the so-called "morning after" abortion pill in the last three years.

Foreign policy and trade are the two issues where the senators differ the most. While Kennedy has been more wary about expanding trade agreements, Kerry has been a supporter. This accounts in part for the higher ratings Kerry has received over the years from the pro-business U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Kerry has also been more active on defense issues throughout his nearly 20 years in office, say analysts.

"Senator Kerry has a lot of evidence at hand to combat this barrage if criticism that he is a Kennedy clone," said Marshall. "They have different focuses and they have different approaches and they are from different generations."

Democrats acknowledge that Kerry may need to start distinguishing himself from Kennedy and Massachusetts' liberal reputation as the campaign moves out of New Hampshire after Tuesday's primary and into the more conservative Southern and Midwestern states.

Simon Rosenberg, president of the centrist New Democrat Network, said that won't be difficult, because he's a different man.

"What's going to matter most is what [the candidates] are for, not where they're from," Rosenberg said. "And no matter how you cut it, he [Kerry] is clearly a moderate centrist."

Not so, said Baird. "He could be cast as a limousine liberal over and over again and it would fit every time."
Logged
jravnsbo
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,888


« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2004, 11:59:12 AM »

good anlaysis, LA only has 9 EV, so plus gore states makes it a 269-269 tie
Logged
jravnsbo
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,888


« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2004, 02:16:54 PM »

Bush's approval rating is around 58-60%.  Whch means a number of independants like him too.  Plus recent polls I've seen even 20% of Democrats would vote for Bush.




You're probably right Supersoulty.  A northeast Liberal heading up the ticket is typically not the way to go.  But 2004 seems different to me.  Bush has been such a polarizing President that I feel there is an angle or opportunity for even Kerry to sneak in to a victory.  Slim chance, of course, but as a Democrat, I have to believe there is a way.

HoopsCubs  
Logged
jravnsbo
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,888


« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2004, 03:27:37 PM »

well I don't see edwards being the nominee, maybe VP that is wide open.  Kerry is a liberal just like Ted Kennedy and Bush will do very well vs him among independants.

Bush's approval rating is around 58-60%.  Whch means a number of independants like him too.  Plus recent polls I've seen even 20% of Democrats would vote for Bush.
That was against Dean, that wouldn't happen against edwards, or even Kerry for that matter.
Logged
jravnsbo
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,888


« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2004, 03:30:25 PM »

john kerry is Ted Kennedy when you look at their voting records.

well I don't see edwards being the nominee, maybe VP that is wide open.  Kerry is a liberal just like Ted Kennedy and Bush will do very well vs him among independants.

Bush's approval rating is around 58-60%.  Whch means a number of independants like him too.  Plus recent polls I've seen even 20% of Democrats would vote for Bush.
That was against Dean, that wouldn't happen against edwards, or even Kerry for that matter.
Kerry would do better than ted Kennedy.
Logged
jravnsbo
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,888


« Reply #7 on: January 23, 2004, 03:35:20 PM »

exactly, but as I posted, I think in this thread the comparison will be made between the 2 of them and wilbe accurate.  Plus add in Kerry being Dukakis' LT Gov and anti-death penalty stances and they all look the same.

Ted Kennedy is a liberal and proud of it, Kerry is just a liberal.
Logged
jravnsbo
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,888


« Reply #8 on: January 26, 2004, 03:31:03 PM »

a strong 2d would look like a win for Dean afte rthe beating he has taken in the press and early week polls.

Clark is the one in freefall.

Kerry will easily win NH.  Over the next few weeks Lieberman and Dean fail to win anywhere and will both proably drop out.  This clears the way for Kerry, Edwards does well in the South and woudl be a good pick for VP

Dean will win in Michigan and Arizona I think.  That maybe enough to keep him in it.  Not to mention that Sharpton will start to pick-up votes in the south.

Yeah, of course he will win Arizona. Don't let the fact that he lost half his support there in one week and is currently in 3rd place there disturb that prediction.... Wink

I think that Dean will gain a bit more steam after New Hampshire.  Remember, Dean is the only candidate who has a 50 state organization in place and he has the most important thing: money.

Why would Dean gain steam in New Hampshire, if he does badly he will just continue to fall.
Logged
jravnsbo
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,888


« Reply #9 on: January 26, 2004, 03:34:24 PM »

It will be interesting to see where they all go and campaign.  keryy has spent $0 on feb 3 states and is only doing well in AZ and SC.

It will take all the candidates a lot of money on Feb 3.  They say $2 million in Missouri.

Just hard for them all to campaign in 7 states ina week.


Dean is already behind Kerry in all Feb 3rd states, if he finishes behind Kerry in New Hampshire, he wont gain on Kerry. Dean is looking really done for. I have trouble seeing anyone beating Kerry, the way things are going right now.

a strong 2d would look like a win for Dean afte rthe beating he has taken in the press and early week polls.

Clark is the one in freefall.

Kerry will easily win NH.  Over the next few weeks Lieberman and Dean fail to win anywhere and will both proably drop out.  This clears the way for Kerry, Edwards does well in the South and woudl be a good pick for VP

Dean will win in Michigan and Arizona I think.  That maybe enough to keep him in it.  Not to mention that Sharpton will start to pick-up votes in the south.

Yeah, of course he will win Arizona. Don't let the fact that he lost half his support there in one week and is currently in 3rd place there disturb that prediction.... Wink

I think that Dean will gain a bit more steam after New Hampshire.  Remember, Dean is the only candidate who has a 50 state organization in place and he has the most important thing: money.

Why would Dean gain steam in New Hampshire, if he does badly he will just continue to fall.
Logged
jravnsbo
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,888


« Reply #10 on: January 26, 2004, 09:45:13 PM »

Well I saw Grham int he last few days syaing he thought the WMDs were in Syria again.  Will be hard for Dems to argue about that with Graham saying their in Syria.

Evan Byah is up for reelection this year guys and so doubtful he would take VP, I see him running in 2008.


No No Graham! I remembered that he demanded to attack to Syria in last spring after Iraq War. He doesn't sound very smart person.
Logged
jravnsbo
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,888


« Reply #11 on: January 28, 2004, 10:31:20 AM »

Edwards Rejects a Kerry-Edwards Ticket    
10 minutes ago  

By ROSS SNEYD, Associated Press Writer

MERRIMACK, N.H. - Presidential candidate John Edwards (news - web sites) on Wednesday rejected any notion of sharing the Democratic ticket with front-running rival John Kerry (news - web sites) — unless he is at the top.


AP Photo


Reuters  
 Slideshow: John Edwards

  Edwards Looks Ahead After N.H. Outcome
(AP Video)
 


 Latest headlines:
· Edwards Rejects a Kerry-Edwards Ticket
AP - 10 minutes ago
 
· Delegates Won in N.H. Democratic Primary
AP - 16 minutes ago
 
· Unofficial N.H. Democrat Primary Returns
AP - 17 minutes ago
 

Election 2004

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Election Results:
N.H. Primary
 
 

   

Asked on NBC's "Today" show if he would accept second place on the Democratic slate to face President Bush (news - web sites) in the fall election, Edwards said: "I think you've got the order reversed. I intend to be the nominee."


Edwards said he would not be willing to be No. 2. "No, no. Final. I don't want to be vice president. I'm running for president," he said.


Edwards declared his fourth-place finish in New Hampshire's primary just what he needed as he headed into his native South and beyond. He climbed from low in the pre-primary polls to finish just behind retired Gen. Wesley Clark (news - web sites), who placed third. Clark and Edwards both had 12 percent of the vote, with Clark earning more than 800 votes over Edwards.


"We've got a lot of energy and momentum going right now. My job is to keep it going," he said Wednesday.


Kerry won New Hampshire with 39 percent of the vote, and Howard Dean (news - web sites) came in second with 26 percent. Joe Lieberman (news - web sites) trailed Clark and Edwards in fifth place with 9 percent.


"In New Hampshire 10 days ago we were 20 points behind General Clark and look at what we've done," Edwards told cheering supporters Tuesday night. "And now we're going to take this energy and momentum we saw in Iowa and this energy and momentum we saw in New Hampshire and we're going to take it right through February 3rd."


The stakes are all on South Carolina next week for Edwards. He says he must win the state where he was born and where a recent poll showed him with a slight lead. He dismisses any discussions about what his future holds if he doesn't carry South Carolina.


But he faces an opponent who also lays claim to being the candidate from the South, Arkansas' Clark. Kerry also will be competing in South Carolina.


Despite spending a good part of the past year campaigning in New Hampshire and holding more than 100 town hall meetings, Edwards could not overcome the built-in advantages of the New Englanders.


"They're from right next door," Edwards said of Kerry and Dean. "They're expected to do that."


His tight race with Clark could portend another close contest next week. Besides South Carolina, the Edwards campaign also wants to do well in Oklahoma and possibly New Mexico and Missouri. TV ads are airing in South Carolina, Oklahoma and New Mexico. Edwards said contributions continued to flow into his campaign based on his Iowa finish.


Edwards said he would work hard in the coming week but would not forecast his prospects. "Beyond South Carolina I don't want to make any predictions, but I want to do well," he said.


Edwards headed to the airport for a flight to South Carolina immediately after speaking to supporters in New Hampshire. He planned to spend part of Wednesday campaigning in South Carolina, as well as in Oklahoma and Missouri, a big prize next week that became competitive after favorite son Rep. Dick Gephardt (news - web sites) dropped out after the Iowa caucuses.




Logged
jravnsbo
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,888


« Reply #12 on: January 28, 2004, 10:36:14 AM »

I don't know, but we can sure throw it back in his face if he flip flops!
Logged
jravnsbo
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,888


« Reply #13 on: January 28, 2004, 10:41:36 AM »

yeah like Kerry and his evolving war stance, yeah that'll work! Smiley

still waiting for the reporters to ask him about how he justifies his NO vote on the first Gulf war when a country was invaded.  

I don't know, but we can sure throw it back in his face if he flip flops!

No, he'll just say that the situation changed a lot, etc, etc...
Logged
jravnsbo
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,888


« Reply #14 on: January 28, 2004, 10:50:58 AM »

Yeah and everyone will believe that!  ( will look phoney like the trial lawyer he is)  Plus I WANT him on the ticket, he adds nothing electorally to it , can't pick upa  single southern state, etc etc


Well, that might be a little different, but Edwards could just say that he WAS running for president, not VP, that the thought had never really crossed his mind, but that when he got the call he thought it over carefully, consulted his family, and decided that the values he promoted in his campaign would be best served by him running for VP, and that he cannot say no to his country, servant of his people, thinks Senator kerry is a great man, etc, etc, etc...

I can see it happening, can't you?

yeah like Kerry and his evolving war stance, yeah that'll work! Smiley

still waiting for the reporters to ask him about how he justifies his NO vote on the first Gulf war when a country was invaded.  

I don't know, but we can sure throw it back in his face if he flip flops!

No, he'll just say that the situation changed a lot, etc, etc...
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.046 seconds with 13 queries.