Lieberman to appear last on the Ballot

[adam]

2006 Ballot

So he is last on the ballot...and is REALLY running under that stupid party title, the Connecticut for Lieberman Party... I would say it's Lamont's race to lose at this point.

[Sam Spade]

So according to the logic of ballot placement, Schlesinger will win, right?

[TheresNoMoney]

I saw this earlier today. Pretty hilarious.

Lieberman is last after the Green and Libertarian candidates under the "Connecticut for Lieberman" party.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I would say it's Lamont's race to lose at this point.

No

[YRABNNRM]

I would say it's Lamont's race to lose at this point.

No

You think Lamont will win?

[TheresNoMoney]

Lamont has a decent shot. He's likely only down a few points with almost 7 weeks until the election.

[Deano963]

Hilarious. Joe's getting what he deserves.

[adam]

So according to the logic of ballot placement, Schlesinger will win, right?

No, but the fact that his name will appear next to Jodi Rells will help. In other words, Schleshinger will get a lot of Republicans that are currently polling in for Joe...ballot placement is more important than you think. Just ask those in South Florida that didn't know what ----->O meant.

[Joel the Attention Whore]

Lamont has a decent shot. He's likely only down a few points with almost 7 weeks until the election.

I agree.  It will be very close.

[Kevinstat]

I would say it's Lamont's race to lose at this point.

No

You think Lamont will win?

When someone says it's a certain candidate's race to lose, what they're saying is that, unless that candidate makes some mistake, he/she will win.  DownWithTheLeft's replying "No" means, it seems to me, that he does not agree that Lamont will win as long as he doesn't make a gaffe.  So he is probably saying close to the exact opposite of proclaiming that Lamont will win.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

I suspect Lamont will win in the end but Lieberman is still the favorite as of now. This won't be good for him though.

[YRABNNRM]

I would say it's Lamont's race to lose at this point.

No

You think Lamont will win?

When someone says it's a certain candidate's race to lose, what they're saying is that, unless that candidate makes some mistake, he/she will win.  DownWithTheLeft's replying "No" means, it seems to me, that he does not agree that Lamont will win as long as he doesn't make a gaffe.  So he is probably saying close to the exact opposite of proclaiming that Lamont will win.

That doesn't really make sense.

[WalterMitty]

who cares?

he is going to finish first in the results.

lamont can go back to his city council seat and deal with parking regulations.

[poughies]

How anyone can say this is Lamont's to lose is just plain wrong.... Its a democratic state, in a democratic year..... yet if one looks at polling and the general mood, its Lieberman's to lose. Lamont has yet to catch on fire like he did in the primary. Second, his ads that were just as good as the current ones by Steele and Ford in the primary have faltered. His latest ads (baseball and the turncoats) are just plain strange. For one thing, most Democrats who were thinking of leaving Lieberman already have (granted, there might be a percentage point or two to be grabbed, but that is a very small percentage), and the ads talk about Lieberman leaving the democrats. Yes that assures his base, but what else does it do? It tells us something we are know and all of Connecticut knows. Second, the only poll that has Lamont anywhere near Lieberman is the rasmussen poll (cuse me I don't believe the ARG from a month ago, look at 2004). In that poll he leads among the most predictable voters, over 50..... And lets not even talk about the survey USA poll that I believe is more reliable and has Lieberman up big. Granted, I would like to see a Quinnipiac poll, and it would be worth while to make sure old folks know where Lieberman. Finally, take a look at the prediction market..... Lieberman lead is pretty sizeable.....

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, because suddenly everyone in the state is going to forget their most recognizable elected official and vote for Lamont.

[Deano963]

How anyone can say this is Lamont's to lose is just plain wrong.... Its a democratic state, in a democratic year..... yet if one looks at polling and the general mood, its Lieberman's to lose. Lamont has yet to catch on fire like he did in the primary. Second, his ads that were just as good as the current ones by Steele and Ford in the primary have faltered. His latest ads (baseball and the turncoats) are just plain strange. For one thing, most Democrats who were thinking of leaving Lieberman already have (granted, there might be a percentage point or two to be grabbed, but that is a very small percentage), and the ads talk about Lieberman leaving the democrats. Yes that assures his base, but what else does it do? It tells us something we are know and all of Connecticut knows. Second, the only poll that has Lamont anywhere near Lieberman is the rasmussen poll (cuse me I don't believe the ARG from a month ago, look at 2004). In that poll he leads among the most predictable voters, over 50..... And lets not even talk about the survey USA poll that I believe is more reliable and has Lieberman up big. Granted, I would like to see a Quinnipiac poll, and it would be worth while to make sure old folks know where Lieberman. Finally, take a look at the prediction market..... Lieberman lead is pretty sizeable.....

Are you on crack? You think SUSA is more reliable than Rasmussen? Get a clue dude.

[poughies]

you know it would be nicer to not use the word crack, but in 2004 as I'm sure you are referring to, rasmussen kicked complete complete butt. Survey USA was also pretty good. I could relay the numbers, but they are on their website. Rather, I'm saying that the Rasmussen numbers simply do not make a lot of sense. How did Lieberman gain a boost from losing the primary? His numbers should have gone down (such as seen in the quinnipiac poll). At the same time this rasmussen poll is identical from the one three weeks ago. So, did Lamont gain any momentum? No he did not. Also the Survey USA poll compliments nicely the internal poll and the Quinnipac poll of a month ago. Yes, the quinnipiac poll is old, but if we are to believe Rasmussen, the numbers should not have moved. It is not so much my faith in Survey USA, but rather my faith in Quinnipiac, and that the race has stagnated over the past month. But once again, Rasmussen has given 6-8+ advantage to Lamont that has not been seen in the prior Quinnipiac polls. I believe Rasmussen to be quite reliable (heck i bought the premimum service), but to buy blindly in the legitimacy of the poll is "being on crack". That said, I believe Lamont can easily win this race. Especially if Alan Gold can climb into double digits.....

[Sam Spade]

How anyone can say this is Lamont's to lose is just plain wrong.... Its a democratic state, in a democratic year..... yet if one looks at polling and the general mood, its Lieberman's to lose. Lamont has yet to catch on fire like he did in the primary. Second, his ads that were just as good as the current ones by Steele and Ford in the primary have faltered. His latest ads (baseball and the turncoats) are just plain strange. For one thing, most Democrats who were thinking of leaving Lieberman already have (granted, there might be a percentage point or two to be grabbed, but that is a very small percentage), and the ads talk about Lieberman leaving the democrats. Yes that assures his base, but what else does it do? It tells us something we are know and all of Connecticut knows. Second, the only poll that has Lamont anywhere near Lieberman is the rasmussen poll (cuse me I don't believe the ARG from a month ago, look at 2004). In that poll he leads among the most predictable voters, over 50..... And lets not even talk about the survey USA poll that I believe is more reliable and has Lieberman up big. Granted, I would like to see a Quinnipiac poll, and it would be worth while to make sure old folks know where Lieberman. Finally, take a look at the prediction market..... Lieberman lead is pretty sizeable.....

Are you on crack? You think SUSA is more reliable than Rasmussen? Get a clue dude.

They are.  Look at the history.  Next.

[poughies]

Well in overall history that is correct. In 04, rasmussen was stronger, but still...... Survey USA did a pretty good job in Maryland (though not as well as originally thought) last week....... I just want it to be clear that I think Rasmussen is quite good, but in this case, in my opinion (which is worth nothing) their numbers are a bit off.

[Deano963]

How anyone can say this is Lamont's to lose is just plain wrong.... Its a democratic state, in a democratic year..... yet if one looks at polling and the general mood, its Lieberman's to lose. Lamont has yet to catch on fire like he did in the primary. Second, his ads that were just as good as the current ones by Steele and Ford in the primary have faltered. His latest ads (baseball and the turncoats) are just plain strange. For one thing, most Democrats who were thinking of leaving Lieberman already have (granted, there might be a percentage point or two to be grabbed, but that is a very small percentage), and the ads talk about Lieberman leaving the democrats. Yes that assures his base, but what else does it do? It tells us something we are know and all of Connecticut knows. Second, the only poll that has Lamont anywhere near Lieberman is the rasmussen poll (cuse me I don't believe the ARG from a month ago, look at 2004). In that poll he leads among the most predictable voters, over 50..... And lets not even talk about the survey USA poll that I believe is more reliable and has Lieberman up big. Granted, I would like to see a Quinnipiac poll, and it would be worth while to make sure old folks know where Lieberman. Finally, take a look at the prediction market..... Lieberman lead is pretty sizeable.....

Are you on crack? You think SUSA is more reliable than Rasmussen? Get a clue dude.

They are.  Look at the history.  Next.

No they're not. Look at the most recent election. Rasmussen was the most accurate pollster. Try again.

[poughies]

Deano is correct. As I said, I don't doubt Rasmussen overall..... That said, to me their numbers don't make sense.... to me at least. Survey USA was VERY accurate in 04 and has a better overall track record.... I like both companies.

[Sam Spade]

How anyone can say this is Lamont's to lose is just plain wrong.... Its a democratic state, in a democratic year..... yet if one looks at polling and the general mood, its Lieberman's to lose. Lamont has yet to catch on fire like he did in the primary. Second, his ads that were just as good as the current ones by Steele and Ford in the primary have faltered. His latest ads (baseball and the turncoats) are just plain strange. For one thing, most Democrats who were thinking of leaving Lieberman already have (granted, there might be a percentage point or two to be grabbed, but that is a very small percentage), and the ads talk about Lieberman leaving the democrats. Yes that assures his base, but what else does it do? It tells us something we are know and all of Connecticut knows. Second, the only poll that has Lamont anywhere near Lieberman is the rasmussen poll (cuse me I don't believe the ARG from a month ago, look at 2004). In that poll he leads among the most predictable voters, over 50..... And lets not even talk about the survey USA poll that I believe is more reliable and has Lieberman up big. Granted, I would like to see a Quinnipiac poll, and it would be worth while to make sure old folks know where Lieberman. Finally, take a look at the prediction market..... Lieberman lead is pretty sizeable.....

Are you on crack? You think SUSA is more reliable than Rasmussen? Get a clue dude.

They are.  Look at the history.  Next.

No they're not. Look at the most recent election. Rasmussen was the most accurate pollster. Try again.

Please click on the link found on this page entitled Prez, Sen and Gov only:

http://surveyusa.com/electiontrackrecord.html

We have a number of different measurements here:

Using the Traugott measure and 2nd Mostettler measure, Rasmussen ranks 4th, SUSA ranks 2nd, behind Mason-Dixon.

Using the 5th Mostettler measure, Rasmussen is tied for 3rd with Strategic Vision.

Using the Shipman measure, Rasmussen is tied for 2nd with Mason-Dixon and ARG.  Survey USA is first.

If we look at the number of wrong winners with polling companies who did more than 10 polls, Rasmussen is 1st, with 1, as opposed for two with Mason-Dixon, SUSA and Research 2000.

If we look at size of Pro-Democrat/Pro-Republican bias, Survey USA is 1st, with Mason-Dixon not far behind.  Rasmussen had a pro-Dem bias of roughly 2.2%.

Off-topice, but in the primary this year, Rasmussen was pretty far off in Democrat-bias, whereas Quinnipiac nailed the numbers.  I always remember that come November.

[ATFFL]

Sam, please don't post S-USA's own hype.  They are good, but they do have problems.  When you look at the simplest method (last poll to actual results) they are good. 

[DownWithTheLeft]

I would say it's Lamont's race to lose at this point.

No

You think Lamont will win?

When someone says it's a certain candidate's race to lose, what they're saying is that, unless that candidate makes some mistake, he/she will win.  DownWithTheLeft's replying "No" means, it seems to me, that he does not agree that Lamont will win as long as he doesn't make a gaffe.  So he is probably saying close to the exact opposite of proclaiming that Lamont will win.

That doesn't really make sense.

It makes perfect sense, I answered "no" to Lamont being the favorite, it is still Lieberman's race to lose.

[Sam Spade]

Sam, please don't post S-USA's own hype.  They are good, but they do have problems.  When you look at the simplest method (last poll to actual results) they are good. 

When it comes down it, though, the last poll is really all that matters and all that we really remember.

Gallup is good enough proof of that.