Who wins each runoff scenario in CA?
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  Who wins each runoff scenario in CA?
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Poll
Question: Who wins each runoff scenario in CA?
#1
Schiff/Porter: Schiff
 
#2
Schiff/Porter: Porter
 
#3
Schiff/Lee: Schiff
 
#4
Schiff/Lee: Lee
 
#5
Schiff/Butler: Schiff
 
#6
Schiff/Butler: Butler
 
#7
Porter/Lee: Porter
 
#8
Porter/Lee: Lee
 
#9
Porter/Butler: Porter
 
#10
Porter/Butler: Butler
 
#11
Lee/Butler: Lee
 
#12
Lee/Butler: Butler
 
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Total Voters: 35

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Author Topic: Who wins each runoff scenario in CA?  (Read 467 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: October 03, 2023, 01:17:04 AM »

Who wins each runoff scenario in CA involving the top four Democrats?
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JMT
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2023, 08:07:01 AM »

Schiff/Porter: Schiff
Schiff/Lee: Schiff
Schiff/Butler: Schiff
Porter/Lee: Porter
Porter/Butler: Butler
Lee/Butler: Butler
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2023, 08:14:49 AM »

Schiff/Butler is the only one that feels like a real wild card, but it's also a highly unlikely one.
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2023, 08:53:31 AM »

We have to wait til Butler announced
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2023, 01:54:12 PM »

People here are really overrating Adam Schiff. He has problems on both his left and right
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2023, 02:03:00 PM »

Why does everyone think Lee will win despite flopping in the polls?
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SilverStar
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2023, 07:27:37 PM »

If the is runoff is Schiff vs another Democrat,the second Democrat will win because the Republicans will vote for her to block Schiff.
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patzer
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« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2023, 01:10:37 PM »

If the is runoff is Schiff vs another Democrat, the second Democrat will win because the Republicans will vote for her to block Schiff.
If it's Butler vs Schiff, I'm not sure I can imagine Republicans voting en masse for someone who was very recently the head of a group dedicated to promoting abortion. Most of them probably wouldn't vote/would spoil their ballot.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2023, 01:55:53 PM »

If the is runoff is Schiff vs another Democrat, the second Democrat will win because the Republicans will vote for her to block Schiff.
If it's Butler vs Schiff, I'm not sure I can imagine Republicans voting en masse for someone who was very recently the head of a group dedicated to promoting abortion. Most of them probably wouldn't vote/would spoil their ballot.

This is entirely possible with Porter as well - she'll have to drive a distinction between her and Schiff, which means running to his left for the duration of the general campaign. I can't see her picking up too many Republican votes. I think the Republican vote is likely to drift away from Schiff, but it's also likely to be heavily depressed in any scenario because all four of these possible candidates are anathema to their base.
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Sestak
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2023, 05:48:27 PM »

This is entirely possible with Porter as well

This is actually part of why I think Porter would by far be the easiest opponent for Schiff. Unlike her, both Butler and Lee have access to a potentially potent additional source of votes in Northern California; Lee obviously has local ties there and while Butler is from LA, she most likely has the support of most of Newsom’s circle if she’s against Schiff [and also she’s now an incumbent in the whole state and isn’t seen as an LA figure]. 

The potential combination of Republicans, Northern California voters, whatever small number of genuine ideological progressive voters the state has, and possible inroads among minorities are what make Schiff’s propositions so uncertain in a general. Take away any of those pieces and he starts to look much stronger.
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