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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #100 on: June 20, 2004, 10:17:36 am »
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Exactly Handzus. Thanks for bringing the signs up. Schwartz littered the Northeast with THOUSANDS of signs; it was absolutley ridiculous. Right before the primary in the NE times, someone wrote in complaining about the amount of signs she had. People don't like looking out their front window, across the street to see signs placed all along the traffic median not even 3 ft apart from each other. It annoys people and that letter proved it.

2002 she came close to beating an incumbent Congressman but this year, with the open seat, she's going to take it. Yep, PA13 - GOP pickup.
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« Reply #101 on: June 20, 2004, 12:55:19 pm »
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Schwartz's best weapon = DeLay and Hastert

all Schwartz needs to do is remind people that a vote for Brown is a vote to keep DeLay and Hastert in power, and keep their extremist right wing agenda running.

And Brown is supporting Bush. If she was smart she'd at least not endorse either side.
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« Reply #102 on: June 20, 2004, 02:12:11 pm »
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Schwartz's best weapon = DeLay and Hastert

all Schwartz needs to do is remind people that a vote for Brown is a vote to keep DeLay and Hastert in power, and keep their extremist right wing agenda running.

And Brown is supporting Bush. If she was smart she'd at least not endorse either side.

Thank you!  Sam Katz who ran as a Republican for mayor in Philadelphia last year kept a very good distance from Bush and Santorum.  I might add his campaign was excellent and a lot of staunch Democrats crossed the fence to vote for him.  Brown is embracing these @ssholes and despite Section 8, it will hurt her.  KP as I have said before I and many people I'm close to had to leave the area because of the gross mismangement of the program.  Many of these same people though do not like Bush and I think it woud be in her best interest if she stayed away from him and stopped singing his praises.  BRTD, from a local perspective Joe Torsella would have been a much better candidate.  His moderation on social issues plus the fact he was BORN, RAISED AND STILL LIVES in the area and that would have helped tremendously.  He would have made Brown look foolish, but then again Brown is doing that already.  For reference, this is what I think would happen given each matchup:

Schwartz/Brown- NCF, lean Schwartz.  GOP's best matchup and is lucky this is still competitive.
Schwartz/Bard- lean Schwartz
Schwartz/Taubenberger- lean/strong Schwatz.  I think Nancy Pelosi could beat him even in a centrist district like ours.

Torsella/Brown- lean/strong Torsella
Torsella/Bard- NCF, lean Torsella.  Bard would do excellent in Montco.
Torsella/Taubenberger- VERY Strong Torsella.  Worst case for GOP.  Taubenberger would be recommended to drop out already!
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« Reply #103 on: June 20, 2004, 10:19:33 pm »
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I agree with you, Handzus, that Bard and Taubenberger wouldn't have been able to beat Torsella or Schwartz  (though Taubenberger MIGHT have been able to barely win against Schwartz) but my opinion isn't changing. Brown will win.

And as for Brown looking foolish, when did you come to that conclusion. She's got the edge on Schwartz and you know it.

Schwartz could score points by saying that electing Brown would keep the "far-right" in power but the people aren't stupid. She would then have to explain her situation...being a far-left, Pelosi-like Democrat. The people of PA13 don't want a member from an extreme wing. Brown is NOT extreme at all, Schwartz is. Brown wins in November, GOP pickup.
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« Reply #104 on: June 20, 2004, 10:57:17 pm »
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I agree with you, Handzus, that Bard and Taubenberger wouldn't have been able to beat Torsella or Schwartz  (though Taubenberger MIGHT have been able to barely win against Schwartz) but my opinion isn't changing. Brown will win.

And as for Brown looking foolish, when did you come to that conclusion. She's got the edge on Schwartz and you know it.

Schwartz could score points by saying that electing Brown would keep the "far-right" in power but the people aren't stupid. She would then have to explain her situation...being a far-left, Pelosi-like Democrat. The people of PA13 don't want a member from an extreme wing. Brown is NOT extreme at all, Schwartz is. Brown wins in November, GOP pickup.

One thing I can say about Schwartz is she's excellent at explaining things.  She has to move to the center socially though.  You are right, this matchup is the best chance for a GOP pickup, but I still think Schwartz will still pull it off.  I thought Torsella had it in the primary given his moderation and on the local level, Torsella seemed to have more popularity plus what every paper was saying the "winnability" factor.  I must say this is Schwartz's lucky year because of what I and others have been saying about keeping the far-right in power.  If this matchup occurred in 2000 or 2002, Schwartz would be toast.  This is 2004 though, but I also realize this is not San Francisco either.  Then again right wing extremists are getting too powerful and people here know it.  I stand by my previous analysis.  I would have loved to see Torsella v. Taubenberger Smiley.  That would have been a pulverization.        
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« Reply #105 on: June 20, 2004, 11:04:42 pm »
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I agree that Torsella vs. Taubenberger would have been an easy win for Torsella. Any idea to what % Torsella would get in this scenario?
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« Reply #106 on: June 20, 2004, 11:09:08 pm »
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I agree that Torsella vs. Taubenberger would have been an easy win for Torsella. Any idea to what % Torsella would get in this scenario?

Torsella (D): 66%
Taubenberger (R): 32%
Nutso 3rd party (probably Const.): 2%

Speaking of nutso 3rd party, staunch pro-lifers have an alternative.  This person will have some, but minor clout in this election.  I'm thinking that maybe 3, amybe 4%.  He could be our Nader!! Smiley
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« Reply #107 on: June 21, 2004, 10:26:01 am »
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Torsella wouldn't get THAT MUCH support. And as for the third party candidate in this election, he's a Libertarian who won't make much of a difference. McDermott, who ran in 2002 for Congress and tried to run for mayor in '03, was a staunch pro-lifer but is NOT on the ballot this year. Sorry, Handzus, but no Republican votes taken away from Brown this year Smiley
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« Reply #108 on: June 21, 2004, 12:27:13 pm »
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Torsella wouldn't get THAT MUCH support. And as for the third party candidate in this election, he's a Libertarian who won't make much of a difference. McDermott, who ran in 2002 for Congress and tried to run for mayor in '03, was a staunch pro-lifer but is NOT on the ballot this year. Sorry, Handzus, but no Republican votes taken away from Brown this year Smiley

Taubenberger's a dud.  He has no chance period!  He would lose to Nancy Pelosi in this district and don't try to tell me Schwartz is that far to the left.  There are a fair number of far-left people in this district as much as there are old men that subscribe to the Catholic Standard and Times.  The moderates would go Pelosi.  As for teh 3rd party, I rememebr reading in the Northeast Times he's a staunch pro-lifer.    
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« Reply #109 on: June 21, 2004, 01:00:07 pm »
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yeah Handzus I think you were reading a NE Times from 2002. McDermott ran that year and won 2% of the vote. HE was a staunch pro lifer. I doubt this Libertarian guy is a pro-lifer because, like NewFederalist stated, there aren't many of them. Not to say that pro-lifers don't exist in the Libertarian party, it's just that I doubt he is. He won't make an impact on this race, anyway.
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« Reply #110 on: June 21, 2004, 01:01:22 pm »
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Oh and there is NO WAY Taubenberger would lose to Nancy Pelosi. You know that isn't true.
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« Reply #111 on: June 21, 2004, 01:03:12 pm »
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Oh and there is NO WAY Taubenberger would lose to Nancy Pelosi. You know that isn't true.

He would most definitely lose to Schwartz, Hoeffel, and get pulverized by Torsella.
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« Reply #112 on: June 21, 2004, 01:08:49 pm »
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You made the statement that he'd lose to Pelosi and that is NOT TRUE. He'd lose to Hoeffel and Torsella but Schwartz...I'm not sure. Point is though, he would not lose to Pelosi.
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« Reply #113 on: June 21, 2004, 04:13:33 pm »
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Really only like half and half: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Badnarik
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« Reply #114 on: June 22, 2004, 02:35:38 am »
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You made the statement that he'd lose to Pelosi and that is NOT TRUE. He'd lose to Hoeffel and Torsella but Schwartz...I'm not sure. Point is though, he would not lose to Pelosi.

Forgot one thing.. Pelosi's a GILF!  Hard as anything to find MILF's let alone GILF's.  Yes, she's a grandma.  How often do you see that!  Taubenberger is way far to the right and is not very good looking(not to be gay) plus the district is left-center and Pelosi is very articulate.
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« Reply #115 on: June 22, 2004, 10:05:27 am »
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Handzus, that post was wrong in so many ways.
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« Reply #116 on: June 23, 2004, 01:50:30 am »
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I'll still agree with you that Section 8 has ruined a lot of neighborhoods in Northeast Philadelphia, but the program has good intentions.  I just think it's unfair that a lot of people aren't accountable for taking care of their places and in some cases people buying the home at a much cheaper price than the rest of us.  The program was meant to give people a second chance, not for an alternative way of life.  I can see people who are disabled or seniors not being subject to inspections, but others have some serious problems.  I feel Joe Hoeffel and Jonathan Saidel have addressed the need for stricter enforcement of abusive tenants quite well.

If not for the Democratic party, Philadelphia would be much worse off.  Labor unions and higher wages have increased the standard of living across the board.  Unions are still strong here, but the Democratic party is also reaching out to college students and graduates who can't find dedcent jobs with high loans.  As a result of the Bush Administration, college costs have risen by 35% and Pell Grants hgave decreased.  You will be experiencing this in what 1 or 2 years.  I feel bad for you guys.  The Bush Adminsitration has really raked you guys over coals here.  Under the Clinton Administration college was very accessible.

I understand you want a better Philadelphia as do I, but being a right-wing reactionary isn't going to solve anything.  I tend to look at things from a broader perspective then make an educated decision and I trust you will.  I have my reasons for voting Democratic as you have yours for voting Republican.  I'm just basically telling you mine for being a Democrat and voting for Allyson Schwartz come November.  It's great there is someone in here from my area to discuss this with and beleive me you have had some excellent posts.

On the subject of Pelosi...    Gotta admit she's hot for her age!  Come on have a little fun here!  Gotta admit Melissa Brown's cute too, just not voting for her Smiley.  You sound like you're a real serious conservative.                        
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« Reply #117 on: June 23, 2004, 03:12:55 am »
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I do think a big problem for America's cities and rural areas is that they're one party dominated.

I think cities would be better off if they had credible opposition parties...just winning mayor isn't enough...

Philly would benefit immensely from a Green or a Republican party thats able to challenge the Democrats for occasional majority status on city council. Doesn't have to be all of the time...but just enough to keep things honest and efficient.
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« Reply #118 on: June 23, 2004, 01:55:21 pm »
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I do think a big problem for America's cities and rural areas is that they're one party dominated.

I think cities would be better off if they had credible opposition parties...just winning mayor isn't enough...

Philly would benefit immensely from a Green or a Republican party thats able to challenge the Democrats for occasional majority status on city council. Doesn't have to be all of the time...but just enough to keep things honest and efficient.

I could agree to that.  Look at Giuliani's New York.  Man did he ever trun that city around yet many New Yawkers voted fro Gore and Democratic Senators.
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« Reply #119 on: June 24, 2004, 01:34:49 pm »
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KP, did you read the Northeast Times yesterday.  Yep, HE'S BAACK!!!  You know that extreme right Constitutionalist McDermott.  I hope the hardcore pro-lifers vote for him to take away from Brown.  Oh well!
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« Reply #120 on: June 24, 2004, 03:07:16 pm »
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McDermott won't have much impact since Al Taubenberger, former candidate for the GOP nomination and pro-lifer, will be helping Brown during the campaign. PA13 - still GOP pickup.
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« Reply #121 on: June 25, 2004, 01:29:29 am »
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Let me ask you this...  How do you think Brown is going to answer for Bush considering the fact a lot of people here think he screwed up?  I think the rally at Fort Washington did more to hurt Brown than anything.  As I have said before, Sam Katz knew to keep his distance and he STILL got crushed.  Melissa Brown has not, she shoves his policies down our throats expecting us to readily accept them with the exception of a few social ones.  If she continues on the path she's going supporting Bush, she's toast!  I think people are more willing to table Section 8 if they see the wealthy getting breaks more so than them.  This is more of a factor in the Northeast than it is Montogmery Co. and you know it.  Melissa Brown will have to explain herself.  Schwartz does not have that burden.  Still tossup, lean Schwartz unless Bush skyrockets in ratings.    

I hate to beat a dead horse here, but where are you coming up with such baseless conclusions about Joe Hoeffel and the Democratic party.  I'm a Democrat yet I can discuss with you which members have issues.  You on the other hand have been an advertising parrot for Melissa Brown and the Republican party.  "Section 8... tort reform... medical malpractice.... Section 8... tort reform... TAX CUTS... Section 8".  Can you come up with any original ideas as to why you unabashedly support these people?  I'll break it down for you:

Section 8-  What do you think Melissa Brown will do different than what Joe Hoeffel and Jon Saidel have already done?  Considering there is a Republican president and both houses of Congress, do you think (honestly) the Northeast would be any different if Melissa Brown were in COngress right now?  I DON'T!    

Tax cuts-  Unless you live in Pine Valley or certain parts of Somerton or Morrell Park (or have a shore home in Margate we don't know about), Bush's tax cuts are not likely to benefit many people from the Northeast when looking at them in aggregate terms.  Considering the drastic increase in costs for federal and city health benefits, the tax cuts have done nothing to offest this for the incomes most people here receive.  Not to mention the drastic cuts our lcoal governments had to take as a result.  I have harped on college costs before and beleive me you will be in for the shock of your life in a few years unless you have perfect SAT's.  Tiuiton costs have increased 35% since Bush took office.  I do beleive this is a correlation to Bush' tax cuts.  I could give you a macroeconomic analysis that could take all day, but I'm giving you an idea of why I do not buy the Republican ticket on this issue.      

Tort reform/malpractice-  Form your own opinion of that.  Do you side with the doctors or the patients/lawyers?  I think the doctors are whiny @ssholes in this case that are going after the wrong people because it's easier than attacking the bad decisions of insurance companies IMO.
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« Reply #122 on: June 25, 2004, 04:21:51 am »
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McDermott won't have much impact since Al Taubenberger, former candidate for the GOP nomination and pro-lifer, will be helping Brown during the campaign. PA13 - still GOP pickup.

I wouldn't be so confident that this seat is a GOP pickup.

The GOP has tried for years to get it, redrawn it to help themselves, but still can't win.

With Kerry likely to do well in the district, the coattails will probably be enough for the Ds to hold it.
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« Reply #123 on: June 25, 2004, 09:46:55 am »

Melissa Brown is not pounding us with a pro-bush campaign. She is bringing out points that the people in the district like. Tax Cuts, buddy, my family is by no means wealthy and we benefited from the tax cut. Even IF the tax cut didn't benefit my family much, I would much rather that small cut as opposed to the increase Kerry has proposed. Yes, he has proposed an increase on folks richer than me but the more you tax them, the less those rich people have to spend on hiring people hence losing jobs. Melissa Brown is a doctor, we are facing a terrible health care crisis in our country. When a vote comes up on the floor, Ally wont have time to call her hubby to ask him how to vote. Melissa is a former educator. Considering our nations education problems, we need an educator in Congress. Melissa Brown is a small business owner. Even though the economy is experiencing a mini boom, we still need people there who know how to create jobs. The only jobs Ally knows how to create are those who perform Partial Birth Murder. Melissa Brown outlines plans for a Patients Bill of Rights, she outlined plans on how to remedy Roosevelt Boulevard, she outlined medical plans and social security plans. Allyson Schwartz has outlined a liberal campaign. sad sad sad. Please tell me, why is Allyson more quallified than Melissa to go to congress? You keep saying Melissa only talks about Section 8 but I just showed you why thats not true... oh yea, when was the last time you heard her talk about section 8?

And if Melissa did not attend the Bush rally, she would have no chance at winning because she needs the president to win. He will stay away from her publicly but you know in a swing district, she needs his "behind the scenes" support. Without it she wouldn't have any chance.
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« Reply #124 on: June 25, 2004, 09:57:14 am »
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Didnít Melissa Brown run for something before?  I think Charlie Dent, who is running for the 15th congressional district is a RINO (Republican in name only).
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