PA 13

[Keystone Phil]

I think this only helps Boyle out.  Remember I said he has the lowest ceiling, but the highest floor.  While Boyle will struggle mightily in Montgomery Co., he can consolidate his NE Philly/Union GOTV support and have the rest of them in a bloodbath.  He may come out on top with winning less than 35% of the vote.

Agreed. If Margolies just never takes off, I think Boyle takes it. But Margolies won't be left stranded by the Clintons. Though with the Clintons, I guess you never really know even when you're dealing with in-laws.

[Mr.Phips]

It's a very comfortable Democratic seat, no doubt, but I wouldn't say that it takes a Jefferson type scandal for the GOP to win it. That's what it took to win one of the most Democratic seats in the nation. I think it would require a little less for the 13th to flip.

It probably would require a Jefferson type scandal for Republicans to win here.  This is a seat that even Dan Onorato won by double digits in 2010.

...that isn't really shocking. Onorato wasn't some horrific candidate and he wasn't clobbered statewide.

If I could compare PA-13 to any other district I'd say NY-9 but slightly more Democratic.  It would take a Weiner-like scandal to make it close.

I think that's a lot more fair.

PA-13 is substantially more Dem than NY-09 and is moving in an opposite direction.  NY-09 was a district that Gore got about 70% of the vote in 2000 but eight years later Obama got just 55%.  Gore probably got around 61% in the current PA-13 and Obama got 68% there. 

[Keystone Phil]

It's a very comfortable Democratic seat, no doubt, but I wouldn't say that it takes a Jefferson type scandal for the GOP to win it. That's what it took to win one of the most Democratic seats in the nation. I think it would require a little less for the 13th to flip.

It probably would require a Jefferson type scandal for Republicans to win here.  This is a seat that even Dan Onorato won by double digits in 2010.

...that isn't really shocking. Onorato wasn't some horrific candidate and he wasn't clobbered statewide.

If I could compare PA-13 to any other district I'd say NY-9 but slightly more Democratic.  It would take a Weiner-like scandal to make it close.

I think that's a lot more fair.

PA-13 is substantially more Dem than NY-09 and is moving in an opposite direction.  NY-09 was a district that Gore got about 70% of the vote in 2000 but eight years later Obama got just 55%.  Gore probably got around 61% in the current PA-13 and Obama got 68% there. 

That doesn't mean it's more likely that a Jefferson type than a Weiner type scandal is necessary to make the seat flip. There are demographics and other electoral history that makes the 13th closer to an NY 9 than an uber Democratic strictly inner city Dem district where Obama would get around 90%.

[TeePee4Prez]

I think this only helps Boyle out.  Remember I said he has the lowest ceiling, but the highest floor.  While Boyle will struggle mightily in Montgomery Co., he can consolidate his NE Philly/Union GOTV support and have the rest of them in a bloodbath.  He may come out on top with winning less than 35% of the vote.

Agreed. If Margolies just never takes off, I think Boyle takes it. But Margolies won't be left stranded by the Clintons. Though with the Clintons, I guess you never really know even when you're dealing with in-laws.

Margolies' lack of fundraising shocked me.  I thought she'd be the queen in that department.  I have to say looking at the Philly portion of the district the Clintons could have an impact in the minority portions of the district plus people who admire the Clintons a lot.  Not to mention Boyle would need parts of NE Philly that went to Bob Brady in the last redraw such as Tacony and the River Wards.  The X Factor here is what will the Clintons do for Margolies?  Bottom line Leach has the progressives and likely younger voters not attached to unions, Boyle has union members and Reagan Democrats (provided they didn't die or switch parties).  I think a stronger MM hurts Boyle in NE Philly.

FTR, I'm still leaning Leach with Boyle a close 2nd.

[Keystone Phil]

Margolies releases an internal showing her up 33 points - https://www.marjorie2014.com/roll-call-primary-poll-lead

Margolies - 48%
Boyle - 15%
Leach - 7%
Arkoosh - 2%

Of course, it's all name recognition at this point.

[publicunofficial]

Margolies releases an internal showing her up 33 points - https://www.marjorie2014.com/roll-call-primary-poll-lead

Margolies - 48%
Boyle - 15%
Leach - 7%
Arkoosh - 2%

Of course, it's all name recognition at this point.

Which is fishy as hell for me. 48% of people remember a one-term rep from almost two decades ago over a State Rep and a State Senator from the area?

[Keystone Phil]

Margolies releases an internal showing her up 33 points - https://www.marjorie2014.com/roll-call-primary-poll-lead

Margolies - 48%
Boyle - 15%
Leach - 7%
Arkoosh - 2%

Of course, it's all name recognition at this point.

Which is fishy as hell for me. 48% of people remember a one-term rep from almost two decades ago over a State Rep and a State Senator from the area?

Well, she was a very notable Congresswoman, she's in laws with the Clinton's and she is still visibly involved with local causes. For those that are "in the know," she's regularly on one of the local Sunday morning debate shows.

That said, she isn't up by that much and even if she was, it's all name recognition anyway. Arkoosh at 2% makes perfect sense at least.

[free my dawg]

Dee Adcock, the 2010 nominee, is in here. Time to revive the institution.

[ElectionsGuy]

A 67 page thread on a house race? What is this?

[Gass3268]

A 67 page thread on a house race? What is this?

Goes back to 2004.

[ElectionsGuy]

A 67 page thread on a house race? What is this?

Goes back to 2004.

Yes, I know. Just kind of weird, is all.

[Zioneer]

I'm rooting for Leach, personally. It makes sense to get the most progressive candidate possible for this district.

[RogueBeaver]

Don't think I posted this Politico feature on Margolies. Ideological chameleon and sleazy as hell.

[Zioneer]

Don't think I posted this Politico feature on Margolies. Ideological chameleon and sleazy as hell.

Ugh, if I was a PA 13 Dem, I would definitely vote against her. That level of sleaziness and ideological chameleonism is gross.

[Keystone Phil]

Dee Adcock, the 2010 nominee, is in here. Time to revive the institution.

Yep. I know a few of the other candidates rather well. That's all I'll say though.

A 67 page thread on a house race? What is this?

Goes back to 2004.

Yes, I know. Just kind of weird, is all.

Learn some of the history before barging in with stupidity. Thanks.

[TeePee4Prez]

I'm back for this thread's almost 10 year anniversary.. I think.  This is no longer my district either.  If I lived here I'd still be torn between Boyle and Leach.  I DO NOT want Margolies!  I'm still glad I don't have to toss a coin here and vote for either.  Both would make excellent Congressmen.  I'm actually going to have to see a debate on this race.

[Keystone Phil]

Haha, yeah, ten years of this Forum Masterpiece and neither of us are in the district anymore (though for different reasons).

[Keystone Phil]

Margolies being a no show at a forum somehow makes national political news - http://abcnews.go.com/m/blogEntry?id=22081491&ref=https%3A%2F%2Fm.facebook.com


Disappointing that the final line of the article states there isn't a Republican contender for the seat. There are in fact several Republicans running. Sloppy journalism.

[publicunofficial]

Margolies being a no show at a forum somehow makes national political news - http://abcnews.go.com/m/blogEntry?id=22081491&ref=https%3A%2F%2Fm.facebook.com


Disappointing that the final line of the article states there isn't a Republican contender for the seat. There are in fact several Republicans running. Sloppy journalism.

Possible that by "contender" they mean "Candidate who has a prayer of winning"

[Keystone Phil]

Margolies being a no show at a forum somehow makes national political news - http://abcnews.go.com/m/blogEntry?id=22081491&ref=https%3A%2F%2Fm.facebook.com


Disappointing that the final line of the article states there isn't a Republican contender for the seat. There are in fact several Republicans running. Sloppy journalism.

Possible that by "contender" they mean "Candidate who has a prayer of winning"

Eh, I still think you show some respect and mention (if you're going to mention the General) that the GOP has candidates but the district is heavily tilted to the Dems.

[publicunofficial]

Leach has gained the endorsement of former Rep. and Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel, who was Schwartz's predecessor.


Hoeffel cited Leach's debate performance as his reason for endorsing him.

[free my dawg]

Glorious news!

[Keystone Phil]

Bill Clinton will be headlining a Philadelphia fundraiser next month for Margolies. In other big news, Montco County Commissioners Chair Josh Shapiro has endorsed Margolies as well. It's been a good week for her.

[J. J.]

A 67 page thread on a house race? What is this?

Tradition.

[Badger]

Dee Adcock, the 2010 nominee, is in here. Time to revive the institution.

Yep. I know a few of the other candidates rather well. That's all I'll say though.

A 67 page thread on a house race? What is this?

Goes back to 2004.

Yes, I know. Just kind of weird, is all.

Learn some of the history before barging in with stupidity. Thanks.

Noting a 67 page long thread on a single congressional district as kind of weird is hardly "stupidity". It just means they haven't wasted spent a decade on here.

Toomey will be back though...don't you worry!

Still, when you're right, you're right. :-D