Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 16, 2014, 07:57:44 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  PA 13
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 68 Print
Author Topic: PA 13  (Read 247453 times)
bullmoose88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14434


View Profile
« Reply #25 on: June 17, 2004, 10:54:46 am »
Ignore

I believe that if Toomey was the nominee here, we would beat Joe Hoeffel. I honestly believe that. Joe Hoeffel has a liberal record that would not sit well with a statewide electorate. Hoeffel can't win with the views he holds. Would it have been close? Yes. It would have been a real fight but we have to fight for what we believe in.

Pat Toomey agrees with President Bush on almost every social issue. Is President Bush an extreme social conservative? Nope. Neither is Pat Toomey. He holds the traditional values of the Republican party just as the President does.

You're right there is no guarantee that we will hold the Senate but chances are, we will and will build on the majority we have.



Toomey would have gone down in flames.

He'd lose Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware, and maybe Chester counties by the same or greater margins than Bush would, and probably kill Bush's chances in these regions too.

The only claim to fame this guy had was that he won in a typically democratic district...because the democrats ran that idiot, Ed O'Brien 2 out of the 3 times. Not impressive.

As for traditional values...the tradition of the Reppublican Party since 1856 and until southern realignment (circa 1968/72) has been to be a socially moderate/liberal/progressive party. Not socially conservative. You social conservatives have only been in the party for 35 years or so...not very long...certainly not long enough to be the traditional wing.
Logged

A Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative NE Republican with some Left-Libertarian/3rd Way Leanings. Simply, a Rockefeller Republican.

According to one poster, I represent a...

Dying bread of Americans.
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51169


View Profile
« Reply #26 on: June 17, 2004, 11:07:54 am »
Ignore

Believe me, social conservatives in the GOP didn't just started appearing in the last 35 years.

I'll agree that Toomey probably wouldn't carry Montco or Bucks but he'd certainly take a good amount of votes in both. Part of his dist (PA15) is in Montco. To say he wouldn't win Chester and Delaware is a bit of a stretch.

Toomey's "claims to fame" aren't just winning by healthy margins in a Dem district but if he was the general election candidate one claim of his would be known throughout PA: Toomey is the guy that beat Arlen Specter, the 4 term incumbent, a powerful Senator, someone with WAY more money and many more big name endorsements. And that would be one claim that would never be forgotten in PA politics.  Like I've said before...Toomey will be back.
Logged



Grazie, Capitano!
a combination of tumblr leftism and moshing
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 70948
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #27 on: June 17, 2004, 11:17:15 am »
Ignore

I'll agree that Toomey probably wouldn't carry Montco or Bucks but he'd certainly take a good amount of votes in both. Part of his dist (PA15) is in Montco. To say he wouldn't win Chester and Delaware is a bit of a stretch.

Both Gore and Rendell won Delaware, and Rendell won Chester.
Logged

Famous True Leftists:

bullmoose88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14434


View Profile
« Reply #28 on: June 17, 2004, 11:23:07 am »
Ignore

Believe me, social conservatives in the GOP didn't just started appearing in the last 35 years.

I'll agree that Toomey probably wouldn't carry Montco or Bucks but he'd certainly take a good amount of votes in both. Part of his dist (PA15) is in Montco. To say he wouldn't win Chester and Delaware is a bit of a stretch.

Toomey's "claims to fame" aren't just winning by healthy margins in a Dem district but if he was the general election candidate one claim of his would be known throughout PA: Toomey is the guy that beat Arlen Specter, the 4 term incumbent, a powerful Senator, someone with WAY more money and many more big name endorsements. And that would be one claim that would never be forgotten in PA politics.  Like I've said before...Toomey will be back.

A sliver of the 15th is in extreme northern montogomery county, not that many people.

Chester might go democratic like it did in 2002, and delaware county is probably the most likely to vote democratic of all 4 counties--urbanized, less affluent, though still well off than the other 3.
Logged

A Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative NE Republican with some Left-Libertarian/3rd Way Leanings. Simply, a Rockefeller Republican.

According to one poster, I represent a...

Dying bread of Americans.
RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel
Flyers2004
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10527


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.87

View Profile
« Reply #29 on: June 17, 2004, 11:28:36 am »
Ignore

I highly doubt Schwartz will win. Highly doubt it. Once her record is out people will realize just how far left she is. Voters in PA13 know Melissa Brown better than most candidates. They know her views and like her positions.

As for Hoeffel, what has he done with Section 8? He is no where close to Melissa Brown when it comes to leadership on the issue.

As for the comment about having a black person move into a neighborhood and that's what people up here are afraid of...that is just ridiculous. Section 8 has members of both races and your race doesn't have to do with why its a problem. People see the problems with it and want it fixed. They want someone that will actually fight for their neighborhood rather than "talk" about doing it.

In the end, Schwartz will lose...by a pretty comfortable margin. I'm not calling for a 60%-40% Brown win but maybe a 53%-47% victory. On Nov. 2nd voters will see that Melissa Brown has been the real fighter for PA13 over the years.



I see problems with Section 8 as well and want it fixed too.  What has Melissa Brown done?  And if she were just a little less gung-ho about Bush/Reaganomics and less deceitful, I may have actually voted for her.  But I'm not.  The Unions and trial lawyers will be out full throttle to keep the seat in Democratic hands.  If you have read some of the letters in the Northeast Times, Melissa Brown is receiving praise, but also the same amount of grief.  As for Joe Hoeffel on Section 8 there is an excellent article in the Northeast Times farther back that outlines what he has done on Section 8.  I'll give you that link later when I have more time.  And what makes you think Brown will get the seat this time and not 2002?  Remember 2002 was hot off 9/11 and Bush's popularity was sizzling.  Bush's approval rating in the PA-13 district last checked was a dismal 39%.  Being that I watch the Flyers a lot, here are the keys to the game:

Schwartz:

1. Pound Bush HARD on the economy
         
Logged


DOUCHEBAGGERY AT ITS FINEST!
bullmoose88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14434


View Profile
« Reply #30 on: June 17, 2004, 11:37:30 am »
Ignore

Heh. Your own edition of Coatsey's Corner.

Except without the campy openings. >P
Logged

A Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative NE Republican with some Left-Libertarian/3rd Way Leanings. Simply, a Rockefeller Republican.

According to one poster, I represent a...

Dying bread of Americans.
a combination of tumblr leftism and moshing
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 70948
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #31 on: June 17, 2004, 11:45:27 am »
Ignore

I think PA-13 gave Gore around 56% of the vote (the new district, not the old one, which voted for Gore marginally). There is no district in the country that voted for Gore that highly and is held by a Republican. So I'm confident we keep this seat.
Logged

Famous True Leftists:

bullmoose88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14434


View Profile
« Reply #32 on: June 17, 2004, 11:49:48 am »
Ignore

Thats the thing...it voted 56% for a democrat against a conservative republican...

Brown is not as conservative as Bush...plus she's local...

This is a district the GOP drew up so they could win (the boundaries are different from 00), they took some more moderate democratic areas and added them to the 8th (Greenwood is probably the safest republican in the state) and gerrymandered some more liberal areas into the already democratic philly districts...

But those kids and that dog keep foiling them every time.
Logged

A Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative NE Republican with some Left-Libertarian/3rd Way Leanings. Simply, a Rockefeller Republican.

According to one poster, I represent a...

Dying bread of Americans.
RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel
Flyers2004
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10527


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.87

View Profile
« Reply #33 on: June 17, 2004, 01:03:37 pm »
Ignore

Thats the thing...it voted 56% for a democrat against a conservative republican...

Brown is not as conservative as Bush...plus she's local...

This is a district the GOP drew up so they could win (the boundaries are different from 00), they took some more moderate democratic areas and added them to the 8th (Greenwood is probably the safest republican in the state) and gerrymandered some more liberal areas into the already democratic philly districts...

But those kids and that dog keep foiling them every time.

I agree with you that Brown isn't as conservative as Bush.  On pro-choice and most social issues, she's as good as a Democrat.  On Section 8 where she is conservative, I agree with her minus the fact of how she went about it.  If she went about Section 8 better and was less gung-ho about Bush, she may have actually got my vote.  I think she will have more trouble winning over the Northeast than she did last time because of Bush's failed economic polices and Iraq.  Melissa Brown is an unapologetic supporter of him and that's making me very uneasy about senfing her to Congress.  I want a representarive like Hoeffel, not another Bush lackey.  The economy in Northeast Philadelphia stinks and tax breaks for the wealthy don't exactly go over too well.  I swear a good portion of the economy are government workers and union tradesmen.  Mr. Young Republican, these people know who's buttering their bread!  On and the dude that said Hoeffel wasn't good on Section 8, here's a link:

http://www.northeasttimes.com/2003/0226/sectioneight.html

I'll now finish with key to the game:

Schwartz:

1. Extentuate legislative accomplishments
2. Pound Brown HARD and peg her to Bush
3. Show commericals that show Schwartz with blue collar support
4. Rendell needs to go to bat for her

Brown:

1. Section 8
2. Section 8
3. Section 8
4. And then???
Logged


DOUCHEBAGGERY AT ITS FINEST!
RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel
Flyers2004
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10527


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.87

View Profile
« Reply #34 on: June 17, 2004, 02:14:31 pm »
Ignore



As for the comment about having a black person move into a neighborhood and that's what people up here are afraid of...that is just ridiculous. Section 8 has members of both races and your race doesn't have to do with why its a problem. People see the problems with it and want it fixed. They want someone that will actually fight for their neighborhood rather than "talk" about doing it.


Actually, if you been to enough bars you'll find that Joe Sixpack from the Northeast generally views the Section 8 program as black.  I think it's wrong, but I know how these people think.  The fact that Melissa Brown pegged Hoeffel to Street in 2002 scored her points bigtime, yet was incredibly wrong.  I know whites are on the Section 8 program in some neighborhoods like Kensington, port Richmond, and Bridesburg, but the media wants to hide that fact.  I proud of you for being smart enough to realize this especially for ebing such a young guy.  Melissa Brown is playing to racial fears to get votes - I KNOW IT!!  It's high time Joe Sixpack from Mayfair or wherever has to start waking up to this fact and start sending the neoconservative @ssholes packing, not rolling out the red carpet because they dislike Street.    
Logged


DOUCHEBAGGERY AT ITS FINEST!
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51169


View Profile
« Reply #35 on: June 17, 2004, 06:04:13 pm »
Ignore

Well I was at the Bush Cheney rally in Ft. Washington where I heard our GREAT First Lady Laura Bush and PA13's next Congresswoman Melissa Brown speak so I wasn't able to respond to these posts earlier today.

1) Melissa Brown is not "as good as a Democrat" on social issues. Yes, she's pro choice and I don't agree with her on that but she is in no way as good as a Dem.

2) Melissa Brown's only issue isn't Section 8. She is focusing on Medical Maplpractice, tort reform, tax cuts too.

3) You won't be keeping this seat. Trust me. Scwartz  = WAY TOO LIBERAL for PA13. That's it. Plus, the voters know Melissa Brown and like her positions.

4) Hoeffel isn't a leader on Section 8. Wanna know why? More and more section 8 keeps appearing in the Northeast.

5) Handzus26 mentions that Schwartz needs "blue collar support" Well Melissa Brown possibly getting the Teamsters endorsement doesn't help her in that area.
Logged



Grazie, Capitano!
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35363
United States
View Profile
« Reply #36 on: June 17, 2004, 06:23:47 pm »
Ignore

I did a bit of research.

PA-13 is located in suburban Philly.  Gore won it by 14%, CPI is D+7, and incumbent Hoffel won it by 4% last time around, against Melissa Brown, who is the GOP candidate this year.

Prediction: small, micro-lean GOP
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51169


View Profile
« Reply #37 on: June 17, 2004, 06:29:08 pm »
Ignore

It does lean Republican. Thank you! But it certainly isn't a "small, micro" lean  Grin
Logged



Grazie, Capitano!
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35363
United States
View Profile
« Reply #38 on: June 17, 2004, 06:30:14 pm »
Ignore

It does lean Republican. Thank you! But it certainly isn't a "small, micro" lean  Grin

Yes, it is a small, micro lean.
Logged
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35363
United States
View Profile
« Reply #39 on: June 17, 2004, 06:31:00 pm »
Ignore

Another thing--if Hoeffel only won re-election by 7000 votes he can't be an overwhelmingly strong candidate for Senate.
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51169


View Profile
« Reply #40 on: June 17, 2004, 06:35:15 pm »
Ignore

Hoeffel isn't a strong candidate. Some think this run is just a warm up for a possible 2006 run against Santorum.
Logged



Grazie, Capitano!
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35363
United States
View Profile
« Reply #41 on: June 17, 2004, 06:36:14 pm »
Ignore

Hoeffel isn't a strong candidate. Some think this run is just a warm up for a possible 2006 run against Santorum.

I hope not.  I want Torsella in 2006, but I doubt it will happen.
Logged
TeenGOP
Guest
« Reply #42 on: June 17, 2004, 06:40:05 pm »

Thats the thing...it voted 56% for a democrat against a conservative republican...

Brown is not as conservative as Bush...plus she's local...

This is a district the GOP drew up so they could win (the boundaries are different from 00), they took some more moderate democratic areas and added them to the 8th (Greenwood is probably the safest republican in the state) and gerrymandered some more liberal areas into the already democratic philly districts...

But those kids and that dog keep foiling them every time.

I agree with you that Brown isn't as conservative as Bush.  On pro-choice and most social issues, she's as good as a Democrat.  On Section 8 where she is conservative, I agree with her minus the fact of how she went about it.  If she went about Section 8 better and was less gung-ho about Bush, she may have actually got my vote.  I think she will have more trouble winning over the Northeast than she did last time because of Bush's failed economic polices and Iraq.  Melissa Brown is an unapologetic supporter of him and that's making me very uneasy about senfing her to Congress.  I want a representarive like Hoeffel, not another Bush lackey.  The economy in Northeast Philadelphia stinks and tax breaks for the wealthy don't exactly go over too well.  I swear a good portion of the economy are government workers and union tradesmen.  Mr. Young Republican, these people know who's buttering their bread!  On and the dude that said Hoeffel wasn't good on Section 8, here's a link:

http://www.northeasttimes.com/2003/0226/sectioneight.html

I'll now finish with key to the game:

Schwartz:

1. Extentuate legislative accomplishments
2. Pound Brown HARD and peg her to Bush
3. Show commericals that show Schwartz with blue collar support
4. Rendell needs to go to bat for her

Brown:

1. Section 8
2. Section 8
3. Section 8
4. And then???

Schwartz:
1.Legislative Accomplishments too liberal for the district. the district is SLIGHTLY democratic and they are moderates. NOT Liberals.
2. Has nothing to peg Brown to Bush with other than party. The folks are not as stupid as you Dems think they are.... they will see right through it.
3. Melissa puts commercials out showing she has the firefighters plus the teamsters!!!!
4. Rendel wont help her - he has too many problems of his own.

Brown:
1. Section 8
2. Dr. Brown knows more about health care then schwartz ever will. (medical crisis)
3. Former teacher, Dr Brown knows more about education than schwartz ever will. (educaton problems)
4. Business owner, Dr. Brown knows more about small business and the economy then Schwartz, a liberal, ever will.
5. Against partial birth abortion!!! Schwartz is for it!!! Voters in this district will go for Melissa. The Pro-lifers will support her for not being as "bad" on the issue and A LOT of the Pro-Choicers will go for her as most are against partial birth.
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51169


View Profile
« Reply #43 on: June 17, 2004, 06:43:15 pm »
Ignore

Torsella won't run for Senate. Maybe he'll try another run for Congress. Senate is just out of the question when you have so many D's possibly running in '06 that have been elected and Torsella hasn't held office.
Logged



Grazie, Capitano!
a combination of tumblr leftism and moshing
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 70948
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #44 on: June 17, 2004, 09:11:40 pm »
Ignore

Section 8 shouldn't be an issue at all. Sounds to me like a state or city program. I've never heard of it until I came here. Therefore, there is pretty much nothing someone in Congress, a federal office could do about it.

But I definately don't see us losing this seat. There isn't a single district in the country like PA-13 held by a Republican. Gore's best districts held by Republicans are NY-27 (which will likely change since Quinn's retiring) and CT-2. Both gave him around 54%.

btw anyone else find it a little odd we have two Republicans supposedly from the same district who appeared at pretty much the same time?
« Last Edit: June 17, 2004, 09:17:03 pm by Better Red Than Dead »Logged

Famous True Leftists:

TeenGOP
Guest
« Reply #45 on: June 17, 2004, 09:19:43 pm »

Son, you have no clue what you are talking about. Section 8 is a federally funded program. The federal government gives management to the program to the local governments but retains full control of thee program just in case it is abused as it is in Philly. Melissa Brown will work against John Street and his poor management of  the Philadelphia Section 8 Program. Now, someone will get on this board and call Melissa  and me racist because John Street is black. Well you've heard it here folks, one of my best buddies is black and he agrees with me 100% that John Street is running Section 8 in a terrible manner.
Logged
bullmoose88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14434


View Profile
« Reply #46 on: June 17, 2004, 10:04:07 pm »
Ignore

Son, you have no clue what you are talking about. Section 8 is a federally funded program. The federal government gives management to the program to the local governments but retains full control of thee program just in case it is abused as it is in Philly. Melissa Brown will work against John Street and his poor management of  the Philadelphia Section 8 Program. Now, someone will get on this board and call Melissa  and me racist because John Street is black. Well you've heard it here folks, one of my best buddies is black and he agrees with me 100% that John Street is running Section 8 in a terrible manner.

Theres just something ironically funny about that last sentence.
Logged

A Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative NE Republican with some Left-Libertarian/3rd Way Leanings. Simply, a Rockefeller Republican.

According to one poster, I represent a...

Dying bread of Americans.
RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel
Flyers2004
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10527


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.87

View Profile
« Reply #47 on: June 18, 2004, 01:14:04 am »
Ignore

Well I was at the Bush Cheney rally in Ft. Washington where I heard our GREAT First Lady Laura Bush and PA13's next Congresswoman Melissa Brown speak so I wasn't able to respond to these posts earlier today.

1) Melissa Brown is not "as good as a Democrat" on social issues. Yes, she's pro choice and I don't agree with her on that but she is in no way as good as a Dem.

2) Melissa Brown's only issue isn't Section 8. She is focusing on Medical Maplpractice, tort reform, tax cuts too.

3) You won't be keeping this seat. Trust me. Scwartz  = WAY TOO LIBERAL for PA13. That's it. Plus, the voters know Melissa Brown and like her positions.

4) Hoeffel isn't a leader on Section 8. Wanna know why? More and more section 8 keeps appearing in the Northeast.

5) Handzus26 mentions that Schwartz needs "blue collar support" Well Melissa Brown possibly getting the Teamsters endorsement doesn't help her in that area.

Schwartz has a laundry list of unions backing her.  At the moment Brown has NONE!!  I doubt the Teamsters will be backing Brown.  Schwartz already has the Steamfitters, the Carpenters, the Electricians.  Trust me, Rendell, Saidel, Fumo, Dougherty, Tartaglione, and Co. will make sure she gets this seat.  As for medical malpractice, do you think a lot of people here side with the rich @ss doctors?? Come on!  It's the insurance companies that make bad investment decisions are the real reason for the problem.  Section 8 may be a federally funded program, but a lot of the decisions are made by the PHA.     I agree with you that there should be reform on those issues.  I am also pro-choice, but against partial-birth abortion.  However, the tax cuts and "medical malpractice reform", which is more of an attack on patients, does not sit well with me.  As I have said before, I was pushing for Joe Torsella for this seat because I felt he had a better understanding of all the issues than Schwartz.  Had Torsella won the nomination, this seat would not even be competitive for the GOP at all!    

Melissa Brown is an utter joke and a Bush whore.  The people of this district, though vehemently against Section 8, will see right through this.  And by the way, why do you think Hoeffel won in 2002?  Hmm.  Like I said before this was post-9/11 and this was when Bush was sizzling in approval ratings.  I should also add the Bush's approval ratings in PA-13 are about 8-10% below the national average.  I know I'm not the only one here that thinks the Iraq War was dead wrong and the Bush tax cuts are skewed in favor of the rich.  Read the Northeast Times and some of the letters wirtten by various people to the editor.      
Logged


DOUCHEBAGGERY AT ITS FINEST!
Comrade Sibboleth
Realpolitik
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 55452
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #48 on: June 18, 2004, 03:16:50 am »
Ignore

ALL of PA was gerrymandered to a horrific degree by the GOP legislature (look at PA-18... that district is disgraceful) and PA-13 was no exception.
It was designed for a fairly moderate GOPer to win. That Hoeffel hung on *at all* was something of an upset (though overshadowed by that shocker-of-all-shockers a few miles north west of the district. Ya know what I mean...).
It's also an extremely notorius swing district.
Logged



Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51169


View Profile
« Reply #49 on: June 18, 2004, 10:35:56 am »
Ignore

2002

Hoeffel (D) - 51%
Brown (R) - 47%
McDermott (C) - 2%

Allyson Schwartz - a far left liberal who MOVED INTO the district. She doesn't know the district or the people nearly as well as Melissa Brown. You can say that people here really dislike Bush and that is what will prevent Brown from doing well but look at '02. Rendell won this district by a HUGE margin and yet Brown was able to come within 4 points.

And if Joe Torsella was in the race it would still be a competitive because voters know Brown better. It would be a tougher race, I'll admit, but certainly still competitive.

Logged



Grazie, Capitano!
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 68 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines