PA 13

[TeenGOP]

Its said PA 13 is among the top 10 of the toss up house races in the Country. The way it looks in the District, Melissa Brown has it in the bag. Any thoughts?

[Keystone Phil]

I'm a Melissa Brown supporter and she is bound to be our next Congresswoman. Finally we'll have a member of Congress that actually works hard and will be noticed for it here in PA13 and in DC.  Allyson Schwartz is just too liberal for this district. Also, Brown is well known here and liked. The issues: Section 8 reform, Medical Malpractice crisis, tort reform and lower taxes. Brown knows her stuff and the people like where she stands on these things. Count PA13 as a pickup for the GOP!

[bullmoose88]

I'm surprised there are people like you in CD13.

[Keystone Phil]

In what way are you surprised?

[bullmoose88]

A santorum republican in this region?

no offense, but you're a couple standard deviations from mainstream politics of this region.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Oh lord... more Toomeyites... don't make me get out my Specter logo....

[bullmoose88]

Oh lord... more Toomeyites... don't make me get out my Specter logo....

Bust it out!!!

[Keystone Phil]

Please.  I'm trying to put that race behind me. It was tough to see Toomey lose. I supported the man when he was down 30 pts in the polls, watched him climb within 2 points and watched his concession speech. It was difficult. We can have our arguments but now we just have to make sure Hoeffel doesn't get in there. He is my Congressman and he can disguise himself as Mr. Moderate Democrat but is a very partisan liberal.

Toomey will be back though...don't you worry!

[bullmoose88]

Greenwood for Senate...2006

You can do it Jim!

>P

[Keystone Phil]

Greenwood? Cmon you gotta be kidding me!

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Hopefully Toomey will be back... to have to get a real job somewhere rather than challenging good Republican incumbents.  Maybe someday, he'll decide to challenge Democrats instead.

I strongly applaud you though for your loyalty and your committment to defeating Joe Hoeffel.  Unfortunately, there is one Pennsylvanian around here (whose name rhymes with Duperfoulty ) who you need to inspire to do the right thing!

I also salute the man in your picture... as much as I detest his statements regarding gays and lesbians, I applaud his loyalty to Senator Specter.  Your state needs both Specter and Santorum.  The last thing they need is Hoeffel and Hafer!

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

You're right.

Greenwood for President, 2008!  Woohoo!

Greenwood? Cmon you gotta be kidding me!

[Keystone Phil]

I can see his reason for supporting Hoeffel. (I guess thats what he's doing...?) Many conservatives are so enraged by yet another Specter win. We took it hard. Conservatives don't want to see him chair the Judiciary (myself being one of them) but we conservatives CANNOT throw our support behind Joe Hoeffel. Believe me, I know his record and it could be considered (when looking at a number of votes) Far left.

As for the many in my picture, he is one of my favorites in politics. However, I don't applaud his support of Senator Specter but that's a whole different story.

I agree with you that the last thing Pennsylania needs is Hoeffel/Hafer and I'll say it now that Pennsylvania won't be electing either of them to the U.S. Senate.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I can't understand why someone would think Pat Leahy would be better.

Santorum is probably my least favorite among the Republican members in the Senate... but he beats ANY Democrat by a mile.

I can see his reason for supporting Hoeffel. (I guess thats what he's doing...?) Many conservatives are so enraged by yet another Specter win. We took it hard. Conservatives don't want to see him chair the Judiciary (myself being one of them) but we conservatives CANNOT throw our support behind Joe Hoeffel. Believe me, I know his record and it could be considered (when looking at a number of votes) Far left.

As for the many in my picture, he is one of my favorites in politics. However, I don't applaud his support of Senator Specter but that's a whole different story.

I agree with you that the last thing Pennsylania needs is Hoeffel/Hafer and I'll say it now that Pennsylvania won't be electing either of them to the U.S. Senate.

[Keystone Phil]

No one thinks Leahy would be better. Most think the GOP will keep the Senate and probably BUILD on its majority. They want Specter to lose, have the D's pick that one up, and get Jon Kyl as the Judiciary Chair.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I'd certainly prefer Kyl to Specter.

But having the triple-shot of
A) extreme social conservatives winning a primary and me having to watch them parade around on TV like they've done something important.
B) extreme social conservative losing yet another seat for our Party. (see Kansas and Oregon Gubenatorial races in 2002)
C) Democrats winning a seat, and me having to watch them parade around on TV like they've done something important.

....simply wasn't worth it.

And if you look at the seats... there is no guarantee that we will hold the Senate.  We can't afford a loss.

No one thinks Leahy would be better. Most think the GOP will keep the Senate and probably BUILD on its majority. They want Specter to lose, have the D's pick that one up, and get Jon Kyl as the Judiciary Chair.

[Keystone Phil]

I believe that if Toomey was the nominee here, we would beat Joe Hoeffel. I honestly believe that. Joe Hoeffel has a liberal record that would not sit well with a statewide electorate. Hoeffel can't win with the views he holds. Would it have been close? Yes. It would have been a real fight but we have to fight for what we believe in.

Pat Toomey agrees with President Bush on almost every social issue. Is President Bush an extreme social conservative? Nope. Neither is Pat Toomey. He holds the traditional values of the Republican party just as the President does.

You're right there is no guarantee that we will hold the Senate but chances are, we will and will build on the majority we have.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I didn't say Pat Toomey was necessarily an extreme social conservative.  It's some of his supporters that I'm worried about.  One Rick Santorum is enough.

Everything in politics is about money.  If the NRSC had to waste money defending a seat in PA, it would hurt our chances even more in other states.

I believe that if Toomey was the nominee here, we would beat Joe Hoeffel. I honestly believe that. Joe Hoeffel has a liberal record that would not sit well with a statewide electorate. Hoeffel can't win with the views he holds. Would it have been close? Yes. It would have been a real fight but we have to fight for what we believe in.

Pat Toomey agrees with President Bush on almost every social issue. Is President Bush an extreme social conservative? Nope. Neither is Pat Toomey. He holds the traditional values of the Republican party just as the President does.

You're right there is no guarantee that we will hold the Senate but chances are, we will and will build on the majority we have.

[nclib]

No one thinks Leahy would be better. Most think the GOP will keep the Senate and probably BUILD on its majority. They want Specter to lose, have the D's pick that one up, and get Jon Kyl as the Judiciary Chair.

A Hoeffel win and a Kerry win and an even split in the other Senate races would result in Leahy being Chair.

[Keystone Phil]

You support Lisa Murkowski, correct? Well in order to save that seat we will be pouring tons of money into that race. We need to keep Oklahoma in GOP hands, too. In Alaska the moderate to liberal Murkowski would be a weaker candidate to popular Knowles. In Oklahoma Humphreys is the moderate candidate and would be considered the weakest candidate against Congressman Carson.  Here's my point: why is it that when a conservative Republican wants a chance to defend the seat and needs money they are rejected. But when two moderates want to defend their seat and want money, they get it. Why? It might be hard to understand what I'm getting at so I'll try this...

The NRSC, in your opinion, would have to "waste" money defending this seat for a conservative. Why is it ok then to waste money defending a seat in AK and OK for a moderate when our chances are much better with the more conservative challengers?

[Keystone Phil]

nclib, a Hoeffel win and a Kerry win would result in a split and Leahy chair, correct. However there are other races and other pickups for both parties. The Dems could take PA but lose SC, GA, and FL leaving us with a net gain of seats. The Dems won't be taking the Senate this year.

[classical liberal]

the dems will loose GA, but will hold their other southern seats.  the GOP will loose IL, but will hold its other midwestern seats.  its the western GOP seats that could tip the senate to the Dems.  If IL and GA switch hands as they almost assuredly will, the dems need to pick up a net of 2 seats.  OK and CO are open and vulnerable, as is AK.  If we had put in Toomey, he would have almost assuredly lost the seat.  That would have meant that all 3 of the truly vulnerable GOP seats would need to be defended to keep a majority rather than just 2.  If Coburn wins the OK primary then it moves to the safe column, but I really think that AK will switch.  Therefore the senate will be decided in CO, rather than CO and PA.  One less seat to defend is one seat's worth of money available for the other seats.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Ahh.  Now I got competition from my own district.  Welcome aboard guys!  Yes, I'll agree with you that Melissa Brown was the best Republican in the field.  I supported Torsella in the primary because I thought Schwartz is too liberal.  He would pull away a little more than Schwartz in Northeast Philly.  Guess what... before you think Brown is a shoo-in here are enough people here that think Bush is lousy and Brown is pretty adamant about Bush's boneheaded policies.  Plus there are a lot of union memebrs in the district and suburban liberals.  I think it will be a close one!  Please remember that this is 2004, not post-9/11 2002.  Schwartz should have the advantage on Bush's policies.  I'll admit Brown is getting a lot of undue popularity on Section 8.  I too am a strong supporter of Section 8 reform, but I don't agree with Brown on much else thereafter.  The campaign hasn't even got started yet.  The ride will be bumpy... BUCKLE UP!!!  Oh and btw, do you remember that Keystone Poll done on the 13th a while back on Bush's approval:

Economy: 28%
War 41%

Section 8 can be de-bunked very easily and the Dems have the resoucres to do it.  Please guys (TeenGOP and Keystone Phil), I understand where your coming from and I'm sure some of our views overlap considering how close we live to each other.  I kinda thought like you guys at one time myself, but these past 4 years got me thinking outside the box.  Take all of the issues into consideration before jumping the gun and going gung-ho GOP.  I just got out of college with a decent GPA and the job market stinks.  Having taken economics and Accounting, I feel Bush's tax cuts do not benefit Northeast Philly at all and in fact hurt us and benefit the very wealthy.      
 

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

I can see his reason for supporting Hoeffel. (I guess thats what he's doing...?) Many conservatives are so enraged by yet another Specter win. We took it hard. Conservatives don't want to see him chair the Judiciary (myself being one of them) but we conservatives CANNOT throw our support behind Joe Hoeffel. Believe me, I know his record and it could be considered (when looking at a number of votes) Far left.

As for the many in my picture, he is one of my favorites in politics. However, I don't applaud his support of Senator Specter but that's a whole different story.

I agree with you that the last thing Pennsylania needs is Hoeffel/Hafer and I'll say it now that Pennsylvania won't be electing either of them to the U.S. Senate.

I like Joe Hoeffel.  I think he was great on Section 8 housing.  He tore into the PHA for us in Northeast Philly.  Plus he tore into Bush and actually represents us.  Melissa Brown is canniving and deceitful- I don't trust her!  She tried to have us believe that if Hoeffel got elected, him and Street would open the gates of Section 8 and drown the Northeast downhill.  Has that happened??  Not as a result of them.  I woudl pressure the PHA rather than vote Brown.  Housing prices have skyrocketed.  I find Northeast Philadelphians like you (you sound like you're from here) are shooting themselves in the foot because they're a little ticked at City Hall so they give red carpet treatment to neoconservatives because they're scared sh!tless over a black person moving into their neighborhood.  You're young and once your in the real world and know how the economy and politics really work, you'll think Brown is a deceitful cunt out for her and her millionaire doctor and big oil buddies.  Some of us are waking up here.  

Melissa Brown's spike in popularity proves this- the Democrats have to get better organized.  If there were a better Democaritc mayor than Street, the neo-cons would have much more trouble here than they are.  Look at the primary results from Northeast Philly:  Dem turnout was 23,000... Rep turnout was 15,000 and this is considering a heated Republican Senate primary which most voted Specter!  I'm sure that tells you something.  I know there are neo-cons in Northeast Philly, but you are still few and far between.  Brown will be close, but she is not going to win in the end.  In fact Schwartz will widen the margin over Hoeffel.        

[Keystone Phil]

I highly doubt Schwartz will win. Highly doubt it. Once her record is out people will realize just how far left she is. Voters in PA13 know Melissa Brown better than most candidates. They know her views and like her positions.

As for Hoeffel, what has he done with Section 8? He is no where close to Melissa Brown when it comes to leadership on the issue.

As for the comment about having a black person move into a neighborhood and that's what people up here are afraid of...that is just ridiculous. Section 8 has members of both races and your race doesn't have to do with why its a problem. People see the problems with it and want it fixed. They want someone that will actually fight for their neighborhood rather than "talk" about doing it.

In the end, Schwartz will lose...by a pretty comfortable margin. I'm not calling for a 60%-40% Brown win but maybe a 53%-47% victory. On Nov. 2nd voters will see that Melissa Brown has been the real fighter for PA13 over the years.