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Author Topic: PA 13  (Read 251184 times)
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« Reply #75 on: June 19, 2004, 01:02:20 am »
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That seems about right though I could see Perzel doing alittle better.

Thing is you have a lot of people that only vote in these elections and will vote Democratic not looking at the whole ticket.  A lot of people only hear about John Perzel here and there.  There are a lot of uninformed people that are only following the presidential races.  Another problem for Kearney is he's ultra-liberal and invisible.  If a more centrist Demcorat ran with some clout, the race would be much closer.  You really don't get to see debates between state rep candidates.  You'll maybe see some cable comerical on channel 70 or something like that.  
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« Reply #76 on: June 19, 2004, 01:06:30 am »
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I think even with a centrist Dem it would be hard to defeat Perzel. Think about it: He's one of the most powerful individuals in the entire Commonwealth. With the Speakership, full support from the state GOP, and tons of $$$, Perzel is unstoppable. The whole straight Dem ticket hurt him in 2000 but he still survived. After that 2000 election, however, he made sure that even with a straight Dem vote in November, his seat would be nice and safe for himself.
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« Reply #77 on: June 19, 2004, 01:10:21 am »
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I think even with a centrist Dem it would be hard to defeat Perzel. Think about it: He's one of the most powerful individuals in the entire Commonwealth. With the Speakership, full support from the state GOP, and tons of $$$, Perzel is unstoppable. The whole straight Dem ticket hurt him in 2000 but he still survived. After that 2000 election, however, he made sure that even with a straight Dem vote in November, his seat would be nice and safe for himself.

Without a doubt.  He knows how to butter up unions as well.  I may not like him, but he knows what he's doing.  I'll even say this, the Democrats have a terrible maching in PA.  A lot of people in this state are pro-labor, yet the Republicans are carrying themselves quite nicely here.  The State legislature knew what they were doing when they installed Perzel as Speaker.  
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« Reply #78 on: June 19, 2004, 02:09:16 am »
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I believe Allyson Schwartz will win this race and here's why:

-Although not directly in the district, both Nick Berg and Paul Johnson were from the Philly area and their executions has turned the region against the war, and hence voters will be less likely to support Bush Jr.

-Out here in the suburbs those who actually know Dr. Brown see her as having a mean, nasty personality (which may or may not be true, as I only know people who know her, I don't know her personally).

-She's not Ellen Bard.  I thought the GOP really blew their chance at the primaries by not electing Bard who is extremely popular in the 153rd with an 80% approval rating.

-Pat Toomey is off the ballot.  I think this will keep some of the neo-cons home on Election Day who would have voted for Brown.

-Hoeffel beat Brown at a time of historically high Presidential approval ratings, and now that the ratings have sagged considerably, I see a lot of those who perhaps backed Brown in 2002, switching to Schwartz.

However, Brown can also capitalize on the fact that Schwartz lives in Jenkintown which is slightly outside the 13th district (though gerrymandering didn't help look at the 8-13 border).

Welcome to the forum.  Are you from the district?  I never met her personally, but she seems very cocky and belligerent.    I will say this:  Bard or Taubenberger would have got thrashed by either Democratic candidate.  Bard is an unknown in Northeast Philadelphia and Taubenberger only reasonates with die-hard Catholic neo-conservatives and to an extent the Fox Chase section of Philadelphia.  Brown hit the hot button in Northeast Philly and it gave her a lot of undue popularity.  I remember in 2002, Hoeffel had a commanding lead of 30 points early on when Bob Borski conceded.  Another person I forgot to mention in the "going to bat" process for Schwartz is former U.S. Rep. Bob Borski.  He is popular among voters in the Northeast and there are a lot of Poles here.        
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« Reply #79 on: June 19, 2004, 02:43:34 am »
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First off I'll ask, why can't you keep you're cool? You seem to flip out everytime this is brought up. Remain calm. We obviously disagree but I'll give you some reasons to support Brown...

1) Section 8. You know that it needs serious reform and you know it. Sending Schwartz to Congress won't help the reforming process

2) Medical Malpractice. Docs are being driven out of the state and we need to make sure our seniors don't have to worry whether or not their doctor will be able to stay in the area.

3) You dislike John Street yet you continue to back candidates that praise him in every way saying how great he is for the city. You and I know Street is not good for Philly, that's why people and buisness are leaving. Vote for someone that will fight for our area and won't throw her support behind someone that obviously isn't helping NE Philadelphians at all.

I really hope you consider supporting Brown because its for our own good.

I have given my opinions about all three of those things.  Maybe I was harsh in saying what I did, but people really need to wake up and see the whole picture.  This is beyond Democrat vs. Republican.  If theoretically John Street ran as a Democrat and Joe Torsella a Republican, I would obviously vote Torsella because he opposes a lot of Bush's policies and is a reasonable centrist.  Melissa Brown is an unapologetic supporter of this idiot president.  This Congressional Election is more than Section 8 and ok, Malpractice reform though you can argue a lot of things there.  Allyson Schwartz has addressed the real issue here- the insurance companies.  Melissa Brown is doing more to attack the patient.  You still aren't seeing why this election is even close or a possible win for her- Section 8!  

As for my post about why I disagree with Bush's tax cuts, you still haven't answered to that yet.  Please, read it again.  For being such a gung-ho GOPer, you should be able to answer that readily.  Say "The Bush tax cuts provided a lot of jobs."  Now dude you are asking me to even further squelch that argument.  

1.  Avg salary of jobs lost under Bush: $41,000
     "                           "gained"          ": $26,000

2.  5 million more Americans without health insurance

3.  As with Reaganomics, we are now seeing an increase in inflation.

4.  Social Security got raided to pay for these boneheaded tax cuts... Hmm, lots of seniors (40%) in Northeast Philly aren't there?

Ahh, yes another Melissa Brown quote "George Bush will get whatever he needs to fight the war in Iraq."

Does that mean $115 billion and counting?  Again, back to my tax cut post, who's footing the tab?  How about more Philadelphia area youth being beheaded?    

And do you think I'm really arrogant or dumb enough to trump
Section 8 over these issues?  NOPE!!

Please, keep it coming.  You will be in for a long, bumpy road this summer and fall with your thinking Melissa Brown is just going to coast here.  I will be on you harder than Brian Dawkins on Kerry Collins.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2004, 02:44:29 am by Handzus26 »Logged


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« Reply #80 on: June 19, 2004, 07:26:10 am »
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Oh ok now we have "real" unions. The firefighters are another reason why Brown will have enough support to win this election. Other possible unions backing her: the police and the Teamsters.

In response to one point you made it is not appropriate at all for you to say that Melissa Brown, a DOCTOR, is attacking the patients. Go visit her site. She lays out her plan and wants nothing but the best for our seniors. She knows much more about this than Allysone Schwartz.

I'm also glad that Brown made the statement saying that we will get what is needed to fight in Iraq and the war on terror. Unlike some that vote for the war and then not fund the troops and our actions.

As for a long bumpy road this summer I think it's the D's that will experience that. Remember, your candidate has to catch up with Brown. Come November 3rd you can say whatever you want about the campaign or the issues but the fact is that Melissa Brown will be our Congresswoman - elect.
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« Reply #81 on: June 19, 2004, 12:26:09 pm »
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Oh ok now we have "real" unions. The firefighters are another reason why Brown will have enough support to win this election. Other possible unions backing her: the police and the Teamsters.

In response to one point you made it is not appropriate at all for you to say that Melissa Brown, a DOCTOR, is attacking the patients. Go visit her site. She lays out her plan and wants nothing but the best for our seniors. She knows much more about this than Allysone Schwartz.

I'm also glad that Brown made the statement saying that we will get what is needed to fight in Iraq and the war on terror. Unlike some that vote for the war and then not fund the troops and our actions.

As for a long bumpy road this summer I think it's the D's that will experience that. Remember, your candidate has to catch up with Brown. Come November 3rd you can say whatever you want about the campaign or the issues but the fact is that Melissa Brown will be our Congresswoman - elect.

Well, she better lay off Bush.  I know Sam Katz did and he ran an excellent campaign.  Her campaign is getting grilled from the front, rear, and sides.  She has never held political office and already received a "Sleazy" award with Vince Fumo from an Inquirer writer.  
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« Reply #82 on: June 19, 2004, 12:27:19 pm »
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Handzus, don't compare anyone to Fumo, please. That is just...low.
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« Reply #83 on: June 19, 2004, 12:30:36 pm »
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Handzus, don't compare anyone to Fumo, please. That is just...low.

Fumo's at least a good guy.  Like I said, fior not being in politics, Brown's pretty bad.  And yes please don't deny it, she is using the race card to get votes.  This is a NEw Jersey Devils trap a lot of Northeast voters are falling for and it's sad.
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« Reply #84 on: June 19, 2004, 12:36:49 pm »
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She is not playing the race card; she wants to fix a broken program and you know it needs fixing. And it most certainly isn't a trap. The voters of PA13 know that when they send Brown to Congress they're going to have an advocate. They're going to have a Congresswoman that will stand up to and be heard.
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« Reply #85 on: June 19, 2004, 12:41:00 pm »
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She is not playing the race card; she wants to fix a broken program and you know it needs fixing. And it most certainly isn't a trap. The voters of PA13 know that when they send Brown to Congress they're going to have an advocate. They're going to have a Congresswoman that will stand up to and be heard.

No, she's making the Northeast believe she's standing up for them then will turn around and knife them by supporting doctors, millionaires, and insurance companies (both medical and auto).  I can see right through it!  And that's another thing, how about the astronomical cost of auto insurance in Northeast Philly?
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« Reply #86 on: June 19, 2004, 06:09:19 pm »
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Try to guess what the bottom of my singature means in English.
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« Reply #87 on: June 19, 2004, 07:27:56 pm »
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As for high auto insurance rates, blame that one on Mayor Street.
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« Reply #88 on: June 19, 2004, 07:29:43 pm »
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oh and I have no clue what it means in English next to your signature. Could it be Melissa Brown - Our Next Congresswoman? That would make sense if it did.
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« Reply #89 on: June 19, 2004, 08:14:42 pm »
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After redistricting, the voters in this district favored Gore over Bush by 55% to 43%.  This will be a hard district for a Republican to win without a complete meltdown or scandle by the Democratic nominee.  
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« Reply #90 on: June 19, 2004, 08:25:05 pm »
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The current PA13 has never voted in a Presidential election since the boundaries have been changed. The district changes took effect AFTER the 2000 race so these Bush/Gore numbers you are looking at are useless. Even in that situation were voters strongly disapporve of Bush, she still would do well. Look at '02: Rendell ran for Governor. He was EXTREMEMLY popular and won the district EASILY but look at the Congressional race from that year...

Hoeffel (D - incumbent) - 51%
Brown (R) - 47%
McDermott (C) - 2%

No complete meltdown, no scandal. The people of the district agree with Brown on many issues and they like her. Plus, Hoeffel was an incumbent. Schwartz doesn't have that power or the name ID. PA13 is going to be a GOP pickup.
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« Reply #91 on: June 19, 2004, 09:27:13 pm »
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Mike Fisher is a great guy! Sure he isn't the best campaigner but he deserved that job unlike Rendell. Fisher dedicated his public life to this state serving as a State Rep., State Sen., and Attorney General. He was a powerful Attorney General that led an aggressive fight to get drugs of our streets and out of the neighborhoods. You're taxes wouldn't have been raised if he was elected. Too bad he isn't our Governor...we would be much better off. So don't mess with Mike Fisher!

And as for the last Governor's race, Rendell would have beaten any Republican, unfortunatley, here in PA13 back in '02. You can't blame Fisher for not winning here; its an area where Rendell was truely admired. So I'll stick with the observation that Brown did excellent in an area where Rendell won overwhelmingly. She had to get voters to split their ticket here and to do that with Rendell at the top, no matter who Rendell would have ran against, is an accomplishment.
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« Reply #92 on: June 19, 2004, 09:37:37 pm »
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The current PA13 has never voted in a Presidential election since the boundaries have been changed. The district changes took effect AFTER the 2000 race so these Bush/Gore numbers you are looking at are useless.

Not useless at all, the numbers cited are for the current district,  they are the result of using the 2000 results for the precincts that are now in the current 13th.  Thus the 55% to 43% reflects the voter leanings of the current district.  Given that Gore won PA by 4%, the 13th is more Democratic than the state as a whole.
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« Reply #93 on: June 19, 2004, 09:44:12 pm »
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If the district was pro Gore by 12%, why did Brown come within 4% of an incumbent? This election, with Brown's high name ID and stances on the issues, she clearly has the edge. The thing is that most Dems just don't want to admit that she does.
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« Reply #94 on: June 19, 2004, 11:03:00 pm »
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If the district was pro Gore by 12%, why did Brown come within 4% of an incumbent?

The GOP's numbers in 2002 were inflated from the runup to war by at least 5 points across the board with a higher inflation in more conservative areas.  The 4 point margin would have probably been around 10 without the inflation.
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« Reply #95 on: June 19, 2004, 11:23:26 pm »
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So you're saying that without Bush's popularity, Brown would have gotten 42% of the vote? I don't buy that theory for a minute.
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« Reply #96 on: June 19, 2004, 11:30:51 pm »
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Do you know what Bush's numbers were back in 2002?  He had like +60 approval in PA during the midterms.  That's around +55 points higher than it is now. You can't say that his popularity didn't spill over into the House races.
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« Reply #97 on: June 19, 2004, 11:36:38 pm »
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You can't tell me though that Melissa Brown would have received only about 40% without Bush's approval ratings. 2002's PA13 race was like a lot of races...mostly local. Section 8 reform, Medical malpractice, tort reform... these are local issues and that is what this election will be decided on. Sure Kerry on the ticket helps Schwartz out but remember Schwartz has to catch up to Brown, not vice versa. Brown is known and liked up here. Once again, 2004 PA13 - GOP pickup.
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« Reply #98 on: June 20, 2004, 12:39:33 am »
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You can't tell me though that Melissa Brown would have received only about 40% without Bush's approval ratings.

I'm saying that she'd have gotten 44% rather than 47% without Bush's approval ratings.
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« Reply #99 on: June 20, 2004, 02:47:15 am »
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You can't tell me though that Melissa Brown would have received only about 40% without Bush's approval ratings. 2002's PA13 race was like a lot of races...mostly local. Section 8 reform, Medical malpractice, tort reform... these are local issues and that is what this election will be decided on. Sure Kerry on the ticket helps Schwartz out but remember Schwartz has to catch up to Brown, not vice versa. Brown is known and liked up here. Once again, 2004 PA13 - GOP pickup.

As I have said before, why didn't she win in 2002?  There were a lot of Schwartz and Torsella signs all around the Northeast.  Just look at the major arteries (Roosevelt Blvd, Cottman Ave, Old York Rd, 309 exit ramps, etc.).  Brown was nowhere close to that.  If people ehre are so pasioante about getting her elected, why did Schwartz's road signs outnumber all the Republicans combined?Believe me Bush is hurting her plus the Democratic machines will crank into overdrive.  The Republicans aren't going to waste their time on this seat.  They have their work cut out from them holding onto PA-6 and 15 plus the Senate(not PA, but other states).  I'll admit Brown hit the right button at the right time, but that has become deflated these past 2 years.  Housing prices have risen all across the district and even those parts of the NE that slip into Brady's (PA-1) district.  I think Section 8 is more off the table than it was 2 years ago.  Plus this is a national election and Schwartz will remind us of that.
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