PA 13

[bullmoose88]

I'm surprised there are people like you in CD13.

[bullmoose88]

A santorum republican in this region?

no offense, but you're a couple standard deviations from mainstream politics of this region.

[bullmoose88]

Oh lord... more Toomeyites... don't make me get out my Specter logo....

Bust it out!!!

[bullmoose88]

Greenwood for Senate...2006

You can do it Jim!

>P

[bullmoose88]

I believe that if Toomey was the nominee here, we would beat Joe Hoeffel. I honestly believe that. Joe Hoeffel has a liberal record that would not sit well with a statewide electorate. Hoeffel can't win with the views he holds. Would it have been close? Yes. It would have been a real fight but we have to fight for what we believe in.

Pat Toomey agrees with President Bush on almost every social issue. Is President Bush an extreme social conservative? Nope. Neither is Pat Toomey. He holds the traditional values of the Republican party just as the President does.

You're right there is no guarantee that we will hold the Senate but chances are, we will and will build on the majority we have.

Toomey would have gone down in flames.

He'd lose Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware, and maybe Chester counties by the same or greater margins than Bush would, and probably kill Bush's chances in these regions too.

The only claim to fame this guy had was that he won in a typically democratic district...because the democrats ran that idiot, Ed O'Brien 2 out of the 3 times. Not impressive.

As for traditional values...the tradition of the Reppublican Party since 1856 and until southern realignment (circa 1968/72) has been to be a socially moderate/liberal/progressive party. Not socially conservative. You social conservatives have only been in the party for 35 years or so...not very long...certainly not long enough to be the traditional wing.

[bullmoose88]

Believe me, social conservatives in the GOP didn't just started appearing in the last 35 years.

I'll agree that Toomey probably wouldn't carry Montco or Bucks but he'd certainly take a good amount of votes in both. Part of his dist (PA15) is in Montco. To say he wouldn't win Chester and Delaware is a bit of a stretch.

Toomey's "claims to fame" aren't just winning by healthy margins in a Dem district but if he was the general election candidate one claim of his would be known throughout PA: Toomey is the guy that beat Arlen Specter, the 4 term incumbent, a powerful Senator, someone with WAY more money and many more big name endorsements. And that would be one claim that would never be forgotten in PA politics.  Like I've said before...Toomey will be back.

A sliver of the 15th is in extreme northern montogomery county, not that many people.

Chester might go democratic like it did in 2002, and delaware county is probably the most likely to vote democratic of all 4 counties--urbanized, less affluent, though still well off than the other 3.

[bullmoose88]

Heh. Your own edition of Coatsey's Corner.

Except without the campy openings. >P

[bullmoose88]

Thats the thing...it voted 56% for a democrat against a conservative republican...

Brown is not as conservative as Bush...plus she's local...

This is a district the GOP drew up so they could win (the boundaries are different from 00), they took some more moderate democratic areas and added them to the 8th (Greenwood is probably the safest republican in the state) and gerrymandered some more liberal areas into the already democratic philly districts...

But those kids and that dog keep foiling them every time.

[bullmoose88]

Son, you have no clue what you are talking about. Section 8 is a federally funded program. The federal government gives management to the program to the local governments but retains full control of thee program just in case it is abused as it is in Philly. Melissa Brown will work against John Street and his poor management of  the Philadelphia Section 8 Program. Now, someone will get on this board and call Melissa  and me racist because John Street is black. Well you've heard it here folks, one of my best buddies is black and he agrees with me 100% that John Street is running Section 8 in a terrible manner.

Theres just something ironically funny about that last sentence.

[bullmoose88]

I do think a big problem for America's cities and rural areas is that they're one party dominated.

I think cities would be better off if they had credible opposition parties...just winning mayor isn't enough...

Philly would benefit immensely from a Green or a Republican party thats able to challenge the Democrats for occasional majority status on city council. Doesn't have to be all of the time...but just enough to keep things honest and efficient.

[bullmoose88]

McDermott won't have much impact since Al Taubenberger, former candidate for the GOP nomination and pro-lifer, will be helping Brown during the campaign. PA13 - still GOP pickup.

I wouldn't be so confident that this seat is a GOP pickup.

The GOP has tried for years to get it, redrawn it to help themselves, but still can't win.

With Kerry likely to do well in the district, the coattails will probably be enough for the Ds to hold it.

[bullmoose88]

I find it extremely unfortunate, Handzus, that you just can't admit when you're going to lose a race. PA13 is lost for the Dems and that's it.

I bring up major issues that Brown is focusing on and yet you think that I keep bringing up the same thing all the time. And what issues has Schwartz focused on of importantce to the district? That she isn't a Bush fan? Ok??? The people of the 13th district want things done, wanted Section 8 REFORMED, want their doctors to stay in the state and Brown is focusing on that. Schwartz not being a Bush fan is not an issue to the voters.

PA13, whether the Dems like it or not, is still a GOP pickup.

Don't count your chickens until they've hatched.

Your running someone who's already lost once, in a district that despite being tailor made for a Republican--went democratic, and in an Presidential election year, where Kerry will certainly out poll Bush in the district.

13 leans democratic...ever so slightly. No amount of wishful thinking will make it otherwise.

[bullmoose88]

IM BACK !!!!!!

I hope you can remain civil unlike your last events on the forum.

It's unfortunate that I have to announce that tomorrow Allyson Schwartz will be sworn in as Congresswoman for PA 13 


However, some good news: Fitzpatrick prevailed and will be Congressman in PA 8 

Like I predicted.

[bullmoose88]

no see, Fitz is not.

Being Pro-life does not a far righty make. The man was a centrist county commissioner. Pretty good environmental record, good record on taxes. My main problem with him was that he is a tool of Fawkes.

No one's gonna challenge him.

[bullmoose88]

I don't expect him to get out of line too much...since he's a first term congressman...didn't expect the other GOP hopefuls to either.

[bullmoose88]

though I assumed the dems would nominate a half decent candidate.

[bullmoose88]

Fitzpatrick-Middletown Twp.

[bullmoose88]

Its surprising that as recently as 1992, the though of a Democrat winning PA-13 was absurd.  Now its a safely Democratic district.  It's all part of the Democratic trend in the metro Philadelphia area.  I expect PA-06, PA-07, and PA-08 to look the same way in ten years. 

It's was quite different in 1992 because it was all Montco. Now it is split between Montco and NE Philly.

It was pretty much the same.  Maybe a point or two more Republican when it was all Montgomery.

Montgomery was probably much more Republican in 1992...