AZ: Rasmussen: Kyl's(R) lead is holding in the double digits against Pederson(D)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:38:03 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2006 Elections
  2006 Senatorial Election Polls
  AZ: Rasmussen: Kyl's(R) lead is holding in the double digits against Pederson(D)
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: AZ: Rasmussen: Kyl's(R) lead is holding in the double digits against Pederson(D)  (Read 774 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,766
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 20, 2006, 09:47:09 AM »

New Poll: Arizona Senator by Rasmussen on 2006-09-18

Summary: D: 39%, R: 50%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Logged
poughies
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 919
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2006, 10:05:58 AM »

Yea I saw that (wasn't going to comment as I didn't want to break copyright rules if there any), and yea its an improvement for Pederson from previous polls (as per the RCP average), but not anywhere near the survey USA poll. Its probably in the 5-10 point range or high single digits..... Key thing here is Kyl is at 50%...
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,766
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2006, 10:08:56 AM »

I think this race is all but over, but Pederson can still make it close.
Logged
Adlai Stevenson
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,403
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2006, 10:26:56 AM »

Nevertheless this race is narrowing; recent polling shows Kyl + 6, + 5 and + 11.  At one stage he led by + 15 margins.  I don't believe Pederson can win, however, it will be interesting to see whether the DSCC will now put money into the Arizona race.  Pederson should get about what Kerry got; 44% of the vote. 
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,547


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2006, 12:13:42 PM »

Nevertheless this race is narrowing; recent polling shows Kyl + 6, + 5 and + 11.  At one stage he led by + 15 margins.  I don't believe Pederson can win, however, it will be interesting to see whether the DSCC will now put money into the Arizona race.  Pederson should get about what Kerry got; 44% of the vote. 

Why are you including an internal poll in your analysis?  That's almost as bad as including Zogby Interactive.
Logged
Adlai Stevenson
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,403
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2006, 12:36:07 PM »

OK that maybe fair enough but one could argue that the results of Pederson's internal poll are borne out by the Survey USA one.  I still think the race is narrowing although I don't know why it should do so at this point; I suppose more voters are making their mind up as they realise the elections are nearing and Arizona's partisan divide is asserting itself.  Pederson will get at least 44% of the vote. 
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,547


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2006, 12:45:48 PM »

OK that maybe fair enough but one could argue that the results of Pederson's internal poll are borne out by the Survey USA one.

Remember the Vorlon quote about internal polls.  They are to be categorically disbelieved unless some extraordinary reason comes about to prove their accuracy.  One Indy poll does not supply that extraordinary reason, in fact oppositely, the internal poll should cause us to naturally cast doubt on the Indy result.   I would supply that the extraordinary reason would be maybe 5 or 6 polls in the span of a few weeks that mimic the internal result, or maybe an election interrupting, perhaps.  Tongue

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is quite possible.  The poll numbers indicate a possible narrowing (from say a range of 15% to 10%), though the result I'm basing this on is through Rasmussen's trend mainly.  It is also possible that Rasmussen's results are within each other's MOE and there has been little movement.

Considering the quality of recent polls, I am leery of putting too much faith in too few data points.  The ASU poll is historically one of the worst ones out there, period, and I have doubts on the SUSA result because of the discussion above. 

With more reputable polls (here me, M-D), we can establish the soundness of the assumption I made above further.
Logged
poughies
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 919
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2006, 08:07:55 PM »

supposidly, there are some more polls coming out of this race as Chuck Todd put it "will show the race even closer than Pederson's internal polls"...... i'll believe it when i see it, but interesting nonetheless.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2006, 09:33:29 PM »

Sounds about right to me.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.211 seconds with 16 queries.