Post your upset pick of the '06 cycle

[MarkWarner08]

My upset of the cycle is in Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district. I predict that Chris Carney will overcome the overwhelmingly Republican nature of the district to upset a scandal plauged Republican incumbent. It seems Sherwood, the incumbent Republican, is running a complacent campaign -- a danger sign in an election like this one.


Possible upsets include WV-01, OH-02, WY-AL and GA-08. I think one of those four seats will throw out an incumbent.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Upsets: NJ and TN in the senate and my picks in the governors' races are IA for the GOP and MN for the Dems. For the House: Melissa Bean gets upset and Roskem gets knocked off.

[MarkWarner08]

Upsets: NJ and TN in the senate and my picks in the governors' races are IA for the GOP and MN for the Dems. For the House: Melissa Bean gets upset and Roskem gets knocked off.

Interesting picks. So you have both parties picking up a seat in Illinois? I'm not sure a Bean loss would be an "upset." She is a highly endangered freshman in a Republican district with a liberal 3rd party candidate with support from unions. I would be surprised if she won.

[Deano963]

Upsets: NJ and TN in the senate and my picks in the governors' races are IA for the GOP and MN for the Dems. For the House: Melissa Bean gets upset and Roskem gets knocked off.

Interesting picks. So you have both parties picking up a seat in Illinois? I'm not sure a Bean loss would be an "upset." She is a highly endangered freshman in a Republican district with a liberal 3rd party candidate with support from unions. I would be surprised if she won.

She is ahead in the latest poll by 15 points and has more COH.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In the RT strategies she is only ahead by 3.

[Deano963]

Bill Sali, Jean Schmidt and Barbara Cubin will all likely lose.

[Kevin]

I'd go with a Harold Ford win in TN.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rick Santorum is not going to win people need to throw that out of their minds.

[Deano963]

In the RT strategies she is only ahead by 3.

Even if you average the polls Bean would still have a 9 point lead, which is pretty safe if you ask me.

That's not even taking into account the very good possibilty that the RT poll is an outlier, considering I have not seen another poll show the race so close and RT is not well-respected.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know that district and it is pretty conserv, I didn't say she would definately lose, she might not win that's all I am saying.

[MarkWarner08]

In the RT strategies she is only ahead by 3.

Even if you average the polls Bean would still have a 9 point lead, which is pretty safe if you ask me.

That's not even taking into account the very good possibilty that the RT poll is an outlier, considering I have not seen another poll show the race so close and RT is not well-respected.

I'm still worried about the base backlash she faces for her CAFTA vote.

[MarkWarner08]

Would a Heath Shuler win in NC-11 be an upset? If so, I say he upset Rep. Charles "I'm not an African dictator" Taylor. Shuler is only 34 and will likely be a rising star in the Democratic party if he wins that seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I live in IL and I know the districts pretty well, she barely won last time as I recall.

[Joel the Attention Whore]

Bill Sali, Jean Schmidt and Barbara Cubin will all likely lose.

Wouldn't say likely, but possibly.

Anyway, the biggest upset of the '06 cycle has already happened: Lamont beating Lieberman.

[MarkWarner08]

I live in IL and I know the districts pretty well, she barely won last time as I recall.

52% to 48%.

Anybody notice that Henry Hyde's 2004 winning margin was nearly identical to Phil Crane's 2002 winning margin? Democrats picked up Crane's seat in 2004, wil lthey pick up Hyde's in 2006?

I think Roskam will probably win this race by 51% to 49%. It's become something of a grudge match between Illinois titan Denny Hastert and Rahm Emanuel.

[MarkWarner08]

Bill Sali, Jean Schmidt and Barbara Cubin will all likely lose.

Wouldn't say likely, but possibly.

Anyway, the biggest upset of the '06 cycle has already happened: Lamont beating Lieberman.

Who do you think will win the CT Senate race? Can Democrat Lamont ride the Democratic GOTV efforts in the three GOP House seats to victory?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think if that happens it might cost the Dems the senate.

[Joel the Attention Whore]

Bill Sali, Jean Schmidt and Barbara Cubin will all likely lose.

Wouldn't say likely, but possibly.

Anyway, the biggest upset of the '06 cycle has already happened: Lamont beating Lieberman.

Who do you think will win the CT Senate race? Can Democrat Lamont ride the Democratic GOTV efforts in the three GOP House seats to victory?

Lamont will win because of the D next to him on the ballot.  He'll win the votes of those who vote without having followed the election.

[Deano963]

Bill Sali, Jean Schmidt and Barbara Cubin will all likely lose.

Wouldn't say likely, but possibly.

Anyway, the biggest upset of the '06 cycle has already happened: Lamont beating Lieberman.

Eh...I guess you're right but I don't really consider that a an upset b/c it was a primary. Lamont winning the general would be much bigger, since winning the primary in theory should be the much easier task b/c only Democrats vote in the primary, and Joe's approvals are worst among Democrats.

I think if that happens it might cost the Dems the senate.

How does this make sense?

[adam]

Some might not consider it much of an upset, but:

Jim Webb - 49.6%
George Allen - 49.3%
Other - .1%

[TeePee4Prez]

Though I hate to say this because it's the infamous PA 13, and yes Schwartz will still win, but the upset will be the margin of victory due to Raj Bhatka's upstart campaign.

Schwartz (D)- 55%
Bhatka (R)- 45%

[Deano963]

Some might not consider it much of an upset, but:

Jim Webb - 49.6%
George Allen - 49.3%
Other - .1%

I definitely wouldn't consider it much of an upset given what we know now, but from the standpoint of one year ago, this would be a huge upset b/c everyone thought Allen would have a cakewalk at that time.

[Deano963]

I predict Harold Ford will pull of an upset, by a large margin then one suspects.

The Missouri Senate Race is very winnable by McCaskill, but she simply has too many problems... I think Talent will likely win.  Missouri Democrats would have an easier time winning the Governorship is 2008, since that office is not so ideologically, and matt blunt is a FAR-RIGHT extremist.

This is the one race where I won't even offer a guess as to who will win. The race is simply too close to handicap IMO. It will be the closest race in the country I think. On the one hand, McCaskill is going to be massively outpsent by Talent, the RNC and the NRSC, as this is one of their "firewall" states to keep the Dems from taking over the Senate and they will spend whatever necessary to keep it. On the other hand, the ballot initiatives in MO this year will help McCaskill a lot. She is on the "right" side of all three measures (the side that a clear majority of Missourians are) and this make people more likely to vote for her.

[Virginian87]

Webb beating Allen will be the biggest upset of this election cycle, considering that six months ago Allen looked unstoppable.  I think Adam's prediction of this race seems accurate:

Webb: 49.6%
Allen: 49.3%
Other: 0.1%

[DownWithTheLeft]

Tom Kean isn't really an upset pick anymore considering he is the favorite, so I'll go w/Harold Ford Jr. or the biggest surprise...

Martha Rainville