Did Hugo Chavez legitimately win?

[© tweed]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_recall_referendum_of_2004

[YoMartin]

There were no serious allegations of fraud. And polls predicted his victory.

[ag]

I guess, even I would have to answer "yes".

Did a majority vote for Chavez then? Most likely, as it will, most likely and very unfortunately, do again in December.   While there is a plausible argument that the election wasn't fair, the outcome of a fair election would, most likely, have been the same, anyway (like any decent caudillo Chavez likes to do more than he really needs to).

The real zillion-bolivar question is whether it is possible for Chavez to lose an election, whatever the preferences of the electorate.  In my view, the evidence is suggesting an unambiguous "no" as the answer to this question.  I would like to be mistaken, but I am convinced he will either die in office, on the gallows or in exhile. 

My definition of "democracy" is: "it is theoretically possible for the regime to change in an election." I would still consider it a democracy even if the elections are somewhat unfair, so that to actually have its win recognized the opposition would need to gain an overwhelming majority despite limited access to the media. I don't think modern Venezuela satisfies even this definition, though. If I were Venezuelan, I would have stopped coming to the polls long ago.

[minionofmidas]

My definition of "democracy" is: "it is theoretically possible for the regime to change in an election."

So "consensual democracy" as in Libanon or Switzerland doesn't qualify?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lebanon just did change governments.

It's not really possible in Switzerland, but it is in the cantons where most of the power is concentrated, or left up to referendums. Switzerland is probably the most democratic country in the world actually in terms of the influence of the people, showing that you don't need very interesting or competitive elections for democracy (although the Swiss model wouldn't work in many other places)

Interesting point though, could one argue that Massachusetts or Utah aren't really democratic?

[Stranger in a strange land]

the sad fact is that Chavez in all likelihood did win legitimately, and will probably go on winning elections until he dies or is forcibly removed from office. Poor Venezuelans and the international far left love him despite (or perhaps because of) the devastating impact of his rule on democracy and the rule of law in Venezuela, as well as his penchant for giving away billions of dollars to other countries.

[minionofmidas]

Poor Venezuelans and the international far left love him despite (or perhaps because of) the devastating impact of his rule on democracy and the rule of law in Venezuela,

It`s not as if these things were in a better state than they now are before he came around, you know...

Anyways... I like Chavez' campaign.

"Re-elect Chavez President.
Vote against the Devil. Vote against the Empire."

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Both sides in Venezuela politics are awful.

[WMS]

Poor Venezuelans and the international far left love him despite (or perhaps because of) the devastating impact of his rule on democracy and the rule of law in Venezuela,

It`s not as if these things were in a better state than they now are before he came around, you know...

Anyways... I like Chavez' campaign.

"Re-elect Chavez President.
Vote against the Devil. Vote against the Empire."

Proving strangeland's point for him, are you?

[Gabu]

Interesting point though, could one argue that Massachusetts or Utah aren't really democratic?

Those places are a lot like South Carolina in the old days, in that the real races are, in general, the primaries, not the general elections.

[WMS]

Interesting point though, could one argue that Massachusetts or Utah aren't really democratic?

Those places are a lot like South Carolina in the old days, in that the real races are, in general, the primaries, not the general elections.

Utah and Massashusetts don't forbid almost the entire population from voting in the primaries, though.

[Gabu]

Interesting point though, could one argue that Massachusetts or Utah aren't really democratic?

Those places are a lot like South Carolina in the old days, in that the real races are, in general, the primaries, not the general elections.

Utah and Massashusetts don't forbid almost the entire population from voting in the primaries, though.

Technicalities, technicalities...

[minionofmidas]

Poor Venezuelans and the international far left love him despite (or perhaps because of) the devastating impact of his rule on democracy and the rule of law in Venezuela,

It`s not as if these things were in a better state than they now are before he came around, you know...

Anyways... I like Chavez' campaign.

"Re-elect Chavez President.
Vote against the Devil. Vote against the Empire."

Proving strangeland's point for him, are you?

Same thing as when Ronald Reagan or George W Bush go around calling their bogeymen of choice "Evil" - you might not agree, but if you dislike said bogeyman more than the person saying it (or if you just feel that said bogeyman gets what is still way too good a press) you're delighted to hear someone in power say something crass like that out loud...

[WMS]

Poor Venezuelans and the international far left love him despite (or perhaps because of) the devastating impact of his rule on democracy and the rule of law in Venezuela,

It`s not as if these things were in a better state than they now are before he came around, you know...

Anyways... I like Chavez' campaign.

"Re-elect Chavez President.
Vote against the Devil. Vote against the Empire."

Proving strangeland's point for him, are you?

Same thing as when Ronald Reagan or George W Bush go around calling their bogeymen of choice "Evil" - you might not agree, but if you dislike said bogeyman more than the person saying it (or if you just feel that said bogeyman gets what is still way too good a press) you're delighted to hear someone in power say something crass like that out loud...

Well, I dislike Chavez more than Bush, so clearly I wouldn't be delighted, now would I? The bigger point was that when people like Chavez say things like they do the international far left gives them a free pass on all the bad things they do, because being "anti-Yanqui" is clearly more important than being a democrat instead of an autocrat...