AZ: Arizona State University: Kyl (R) leads Pederson (D) by double-digits

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Arizona Senator by Arizona State University on 2006-09-27

Summary: D: 38%, R: 49%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Adlai Stevenson]

Pederson is finally catching up, or is it more Kyl becoming less favoured?  Arizona has a strong Republican base but will re-elect Napolitano in a landslide.  I don't know whether that will pull in a few more people into supporting fellow Democrat Pederson.  I think that the race will eventually trend along party lines, i.e. 54%-44% for the Republican. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Pederson has a better shot at winning than Ford or Webb. This state has voted Dem in the past for president and TN has been blowouts for Republicans. Pederson has an outside chance to upset Kyl.  Webb and Ford although their polling indicates a close race, TN and VA tend to poll closer than the final result indicated, and this happened in the 2000 and 2004 election when both were considered tossups for the dems. But I think all three are going to be defeated barring any upsets.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I completely disagree.  Ford and Webb are brilliant candidates in Tennessee and Virginia and while both are the underdogs I think Ford definitely could win.  Even if Webb doesn't win, he is running 4% behind a Senator who was 19% ahead of him when the campaign began.  Both of them managed to make their respective races very close.

Pederson on the other hand has had a huge cash backing and has trailed by double-digit margins for the most of the year.  He is not a very satisfactory candidate and Kyl is a respected Senator.  If you're logic is that Arizona voted Democratic in the past then Tennessee did, in 1992 and 1996.  Arizona went for Clinton only in 1996. 

One thing I forgot to mention/ask is if anyone thinks the Congressional races will affect this race.  In AZ-8, Giffords is clearly going to sweep into office in a majority Republican District.  If she could attract enough people to vote Democrat for her, would they also vote for Pederson and possibly make him more competetive?  If this was the case then he might come closer than we expect as it wouldn't be shown in polls. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You disagree and Ford has not pulled ahead in a single public poll on internals that inflate the polls.  I told you that TN tends to poll better than polling indicates the final outcome the Dems  polled better for president in 2000 and 2004. Also, this is the same state that Bob Clement lost by double digits by. As I said Ford has an outside chance to upset Corker.  It depends also on the ethics violations concerning his father, they will have an impact on the race. The ethics concerns of Corker has played very well for Ford so far, but Ford has ethics concerns of his own.

[Gustaf]

Quincy, you do realize that when Clinton won Arizona he also won Tennessee, by a slightly bigger margin as well. If you look more closely, you'll see that Arizona, although trending towards the Democrats remain a very Republican state, while Tennessee is still in many ways fairly balanced (although TRENDING towards the GOP)

[Keystone Phil]

Pederson is finally catching up 

Hasn't he been "catching up" for months now? This is ridiculous.

I think Pederson has a better shot at winning than Ford or Webb.

And this is even more ridiculous. Pederson won't pass 45%.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Pederson is finally catching up 

Hasn't he been "catching up" for months now? This is ridiculous.

I think Pederson has a better shot at winning than Ford or Webb.

And this is even more ridiculous. Pederson won't pass 45%.

I agree that Pederson's 'catching up' is a bit belated but it appears he finally is.  Two polls have found him within almost 10% of Kyl.  At one stage in the campaign he was 20%-25% behind.  I completely agree that Pederson will reach only 45%, Ford could well win at this point and Webb will get around 47%-48% of the vote. 

[they don't love you like i love you]

Uni poll, toss toss toss.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ford probably won't win the state has been trending republicans and minorities tend to poll better than they are polling now. Ford will have ethic issues again come up, I think Corker wins by 2%.

[poughies]

I want to see some automated polls with Ford because people feel more comfortable being racist to a message than to a live person.

[RJ]

Pederson is finally catching up 

Hasn't he been "catching up" for months now? This is ridiculous.

I think Pederson has a better shot at winning than Ford or Webb.

And this is even more ridiculous. Pederson won't pass 45%.

I may never say this again---I agree with Phil.

This is one of those races, along with Virginia, that appear to be in striking distance but in reality the incumbent is so popular and entrenched there's little hope of unseating him no matter what the polls say(which won't get inside the MOE).

[Eraserhead]

I think Pederson has a better shot at winning than Ford or Webb. This state has voted Dem in the past for president and TN has been blowouts for Republicans. Pederson has an outside chance to upset Kyl.  Webb and Ford although their polling indicates a close race, TN and VA tend to poll closer than the final result indicated, and this happened in the 2000 and 2004 election when both were considered tossups for the dems. But I think all three are going to be defeated barring any upsets.

Better shot then Ford or Webb? Come on now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think all are at a disadvantage do to the GOP leans of the state, but it isn't in the bag for any of the three to win. No, candidate is ahead in more than one poll. that says something. I certainly wouldn't be going by internals either. I would wait like I said for the Univ of Tenn to come out.

I wouldn't bet on Lamont winning either, my picking hoping Pederson would win is better than your analysis that Lamont will win. Lamont has never been closer than 10 pts, if you don't include those oversampling of Dem polls.

If you must know in the new Zogby polls Webb and Ford are the same percentage behind their oppenents as Pederson.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Yes Quincy they are, but Lamont is only 1.5% behind Lieberman in them as well. 

[Eraserhead]

Yes Quincy they are, but Lamont is only 1.5% behind Lieberman in them as well. 

Actually that would put it in line with Rasmussen and ARG. Not that it means its right.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But the very fact is that Webb, Pederson, and Ford are trailing by 6 pts and you don't acknowledge that.