VA: Survey USA: Webb(D) still lags behind Allen(R)

[OC]

New Poll: Virginia Senator by Survey USA on 2006-09-26

Summary: D: 44%, R: 49%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[poughies]

OUCH!

[OC]

I think Allen has recovered somewhat from the gaft. Like I said VA, TN, and AZ are probably leans republican at this point.

[poughies]

though i suggest people do the reading, it is interesting.

[Sam Spade]

Folks, it's most likely MOE movement.  Allen still leads by about 4%-7%, just outside MOE.

[poughies]

yea probably.....

[OC]

But he stopped losing ground in the polls and that's why I named the title such.

[Adlai Stevenson]

How can Allen possibly have 21% of the black vote?  Did Bush even get that in 2004 and even if he did surely Allen's score would be lower?  I might be called a partisan hack but I don't think Survey USA's polling is very good at the moment, re: Steele 48%-47% in Maryland.  It also claims Allen leads by 46%-43% amongst Independents; surely that can't be true?

I don't believe Webb is neccessarily in the lead but I do believe he is closer than 44%-49% to Allen.  I think Webb could still win and there is around a 25% chance of him doing so.  My prediction (at the moment):

VIRGINIA SENATE
Allen (R) 51%
Webb (D) 47%

[poughies]

Interesting how the polling went after the whole race issue got played up.

[OC]

There was no second act after the macaca incident .

[DownWithTheLeft]

I just don't think the whole George Allen made racist remarks thing really bothers people in Virginia.  It's not New York, it's not California, its a conservative confederate state.  People also see Webb has no plan but criticize his opponent

[adam]

Has Webb peaked? It's starting to look that way.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Has Webb peaked? It's starting to look that way.

Yeah pretty much and he doesn't really have anything that would boost him accept George Allen, like or not he's not the campaigner Rick Santorum is

[Gustaf]

How can Allen possibly have 21% of the black vote?  Did Bush even get that in 2004 and even if he did surely Allen's score would be lower?  I might be called a partisan hack but I don't think Survey USA's polling is very good at the moment, re: Steele 48%-47% in Maryland.  It also claims Allen leads by 46%-43% amongst Independents; surely that can't be true?

I don't believe Webb is neccessarily in the lead but I do believe he is closer than 44%-49% to Allen.  I think Webb could still win and there is around a 25% chance of him doing so.  My prediction (at the moment):

VIRGINIA SENATE
Allen (R) 51%
Webb (D) 47%

SUSA isn't all that good. But if anything I think they tend to favour Democrats...which most of their previous polls have done. What do you think of those?

[poughies]

I think Surveyusa is pretty good, but does sometimes have wild swings. Take the poll for what it is and that is Allen still maintains a 3-7 point advantage. Mason-Dixon where are you?

[OC]

Their MO and TN sample way overstated the polls in my view. But Rasmussen pouhies had Webb behind by 7 points and Ford behind by 1 I think it is Dem favored.

[Democratic Hawk]

SUSA has also stated that the day-to-day data shows that tthis race is volatile, with Allen trailing Webb by 3-points in Tuesday's data

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

I just don't think the whole George Allen made racist remarks thing really bothers people in Virginia.  It's not New York, it's not California, its a conservative confederate state.  People also see Webb has no plan but criticize his opponent

Aye, it's a conservative confederate state so it shouldn't be darn well electing Republicans in the first place

Dave

[OC]

But it still overstates Dem support, they had Brown ahead by 10 pts and he is up 5 pts so I think it is still Dem favored.

[Democratic Hawk]

But it still overstates Dem support, they had Brown ahead by 10 pts and he is up 5 pts so I think it is still Dem favored.

In its sample? Well, this poll comprises Republican 39%; Democrat 34% and Independent 23%. A 5-point GOP lead seems within reason

Dave

[OC]

But it is well within the same percentage as Rasmussen that had Allen up by 7 pts. I think Allen will win. But overall when it comes down to polling besides this, it does tend to favor Dems. I don't think Ford is leading in TN by 3 points and Talent is slightly ahead of Claire and they overstated the poll both times.

[poughies]

well what is not "favoring" democrats. I mean does this poll make sense? Yes, it does. If it does than take it for what it is and average it. We'll have another tennessee poll to average at the end of the week... we'll take it for what it is. Or at least i will (though the ethnic lie cannot be ignored).

[OC]

The fact is that you can't discount the Zogby tracking polls either that had Talent and Corker ahead either. But I think this poll is a little bit favoring towards the Dems, I agree with the Rasmussen, it is a 7 pt race. I think they press leaners harder than other pollsters do not necessarily the amount of Dems and Republican number. That's what I think is the difference in the Survey poll and the Rasmussen poll.

Don't forget those OK and NH governor races that overstated the Democratic result, Lynch and Henry's result were overstated both times.

[Deano963]

How can Allen possibly have 21% of the black vote? 

If this poll really claims that Allen is receiving 21% of the black vote then it is completely worthless.

[Sam Spade]

How can Allen possibly have 21% of the black vote?

If this poll really claims that Allen is receiving 21% of the black vote then it is completely worthless.

I don't know why y'all are focusing on this small subsample whose MOE is probably enormous.

Also, fwiw, in the last two SUSA polls that showed Allen up three, both polls gave him 22% and 20% of the black vote, respectively.