Analysis of House Races- 2004

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another site to try is: www.dcpoliticalreport.com

Anyhow Sachs(who rates races by entertainment value!) has rated the following as "Very Entertaining":

AL 03
AZ 01
CA 03
CA 20
FL 14
FL 16
GA 06
GA 08
IA 02
KA 03
KY 03
LA 05
MO 03
NC 05
PA 15
SC 04
WV 02

And the following as "Exciting":

CO 03
CO 07
GA 11
GA 12
OK 02
SD-al

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Utah has a Democrat as one of it's representatives?
Matheson is toast.

Rodney Alexander (LA-5) doesn't look very vunerable at the moment.

Mike Rodgers(AL-3) could be in serious trouble, ditto Max Burns(GA-12)

 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

AL-3 is a good example of a seat that the Dems need to win to regain the House, If they can run a strong populist dem it should go Dem... but it'll be close.

GA-12 is an even better example of that.
That the Dems hold UT-2 and not GA-12 is insane.

Alexander should be safe barring a GOP landslide(unlikely) or a serious gaffe.
But LA can be weird when it comes to voting...

I said earlier that in theory the House should lean Dem while the Senate should lean GOP.
The reason for that it classic political theory.
Which I presume you lot all know

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In effect it's because the lower house is meant to be radical while the upper house is meant to be conservative.
Both are meant to balance each other out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

AL-3 is a good example of a seat that the Dems need to win to regain the House, If they can run a strong populist dem it should go Dem... but it'll be close.

GA-12 is an even better example of that.
That the Dems hold UT-2 and not GA-12 is insane.

Well not that insane, after all there are many such. Republicans have no business holding Jim Leach's solidly democratic Iowa seat as well as several others and should definitely have over a dozen southern seats which are over two-thirds republican but held by a dem.

There are a lot of factors which affect this includng the political independence (in reality) of voters despite their partisan preference and the strength of the incumbent on various measures.  

Like Gene Taylor in Mississippi?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

AL-5 would probably be Democrat without Cramer, although not with 73.3%...(mid 50's looks about right).

However the Dems would not win MS-4 without Taylor...
What is usually the most GOP part of Mississippi gave a Democrat 3 quarters of the vote in 2002...

Your point about a rural/suburban divide is excellent.
It may be partially explained by economic self-interest as poor rural areas tend to benifit from Dem economic policies while suburbia tends to benifit from GOP economic policies.
In parts of the South the rural/suburban divide is more marked than the rural/urban divide.

America can be a strange country

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's more or less the theory.

It's also worth noting that in most other countries with two chambers, the lower tends to be the more leftish of the two.

And that this was the case in the US until the 2000 elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How many districts Bush won in 2000 is immaterial to how the house leans(Gore had some serious problems in normally safe Democrat districts).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are you seriously suggesting that PA-12 is naturally GOP?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Generally speaking, Gore won less support in Tobacco growing, Coal Mining and poor rural areas than the Dems normally do.

2000 was a strange election in many ways, and that's just one of them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It was a 10 point GOP lead in the Presidential election, however a mid 50's Dem % seems like the district's "natural" result at congressional level.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm no expert on Alabaman politics, but what I do know is that the Democrat vote was seriously depressed in several areas in the last Presidential election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not so much Dean(he should do O.K in small towns etc. But not in Alabama), but Kerry et al...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Look... I don't have a problem with you airing yours views... but I do have a problem with some of the Usenet like language you have been using.
Tone it down.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(Potentially) vunerable incumbents:

+= Potentially in trouble, but should be safe
++= Long shot
+++= In moderate danger of losing
++++= In danger of losing
+++++= In SERIOUS danger of losing

Alabama:
03=Mike Rodgers(R)+++++

Arizona:
01=Rick Renzi(R)+++++

Arkansas:
03=John Boozman(R)+

More soon...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm not predicting anything.
Rodger's is very vunerable(he only won by a couple of %), and +++++ seems about right, but he still stands a good chance of winning.

My marker is D-WV, because it is only fair that people know which party I support, and because WV is the state that closest resembles where I live.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

+ Means vauge chance of an upset more than anything else. I would doubt that anyone rated + will actually lose their seats.
Think of it as a face saving valve

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So the GOP have picked up a new congressman on paper at least.
In practice he has been a Republican for a very long time...

Glad he's gone.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Texas Gerrymander in theory acts as a safeguard for the GOP. The Dems might make some strong gains elsewhere, but because of the Texan plan, will struggle to get the GOP majority below 5.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Er... you all seem to be misinterpreting me...

What I mean is that IF the Dems can make strong/solid gains elsewhere they would still struggle to get the GOP's majority below 5 seats in the House, due to the Texan map.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hall was just about the most conservative Democrat since Thurmond switched to the GOP...
A Democrat in name only, now a Republican because he was afraid of losing his seat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've no problem with Hall crossing the floor, and to be honest he should have done it years ago.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Lampson is not running against DeLay.
Were's the drama gone dammit!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fairvote.org have got some good stuff on there site.
"Too close to call" is essential for making accurate predictions.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I do that anyway