Analysis of House Races- 2004

[jravnsbo]

The senate is already going to be devastating for the Dems--they have too many open seats in BUsh country.

FL, NC, GA, SC, most likely LA and then Inouye sounds like he will run again in HI ( sho-in, but he will be 80 when he runs and with a GOP gov, if he dies or has to retire GOP picks up another seat)

House-Down goes Lucas in KY to retirement , expect the GOP to guin for this seat and a clean sweep of the Bluegrass state

[jravnsbo]

?? What? are you talking to me.

What is usenet like language?

ANyone see that CO SCT overturned their redistricting map today?

[jravnsbo]

what is GOTV?


quote author=JNB link=board=11;threadid=46;start=30#msg3242 date=1071001452]


 Rep Rodgers is going to have a serious fundraising advantage, and last year he overcame a massive Democratic GOTV effort. At the very worst, his district leans Republican. By the way Pealpolitik, since you are from the UK, why do you have the WVA marker on your name?

  Anyways Realpolitik, as I said before, you really need to understand the cultural dimension(culture wars) of US politics before making more predictions.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[jravnsbo]

Thune is saying he will decide and announce int eh next few days if he will enter the House race in SD or the Senate race.

[jravnsbo]

Gosh Senator John Thune sounds so good!

[jravnsbo]

Tell me abou tit, I detailed that whole fiasco in here somewhere.  

Thing s I don't dislike Johnson, but HATE DASCHLE and his obstructism.  Then he claims to be so conservative and helpful to SD when he is home and then is Kennedy's best Buddy in DC, arrggghh.

[jravnsbo]

Thune has announced he will not run for the House.

[jravnsbo]

Anyone notice that the Justice Dept.  approved the Texas House map as NOT being against the civil rights act?

[jravnsbo]

yes this could be a NET gain of 7 seats for the GOP.

Wish they'd get rid of REp. Sheila Jackson Lee, but I think she is still in a safe district.  

[jravnsbo]

She is in the 18th district which is in Houston.

[jravnsbo]

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Ratings.htm

good site for telling which races are the most competitive.

[jravnsbo]

AZ-02 - GOP Primary - Freshman Rep. Trent Franks vs. Radio Broadcaster Rick
Murphy.

CA-12 - DEM Primary - Rep. Tom Lantos vs. Ro Khanna vs. Maad Abu-Ghazalah.

Ghazalah is a former Libertarian so his candidacy is a non-issue.
However, Mr. Khanna is challenging pro-war democrat Lantos in this VERY liberal
district. He has also been endorsed by the California Democratic Council, making
Lantos the ONLY incumbent democratic congressman NOT to be endorsed.

CA-46 - GOP Primary - Rep. Dana Rohrabacher vs. Bob Dornan.

Rohrabacher is the favorite to win. However, if the main contingent
of GOP March primary voters in this district are social conservatives, Dornan
could win the primary in an upset. If he does, expect this moderate district to
vote for the Democratic nominee in November.

GA-04 - DEM Primary - Rep. Denise Majette vs. fmr. Rep. Cynthia McKinney.

IF McKinney runs, she could make this race interesting but look for
Majette to win again.

IL-02 - DEM Primary - Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. vs. fmr. Rep. Mel Reynolds.

Reynolds was convicted in 1995 of child molestation and obstruction
of justice and Jackson won the subsequent special election. Look for Jackson to
win by a comfortable margin but Reynolds still has some support.

IL-08 - GOP Primary - Rep. Phil Crane vs. Attorney David W. Phelps (NOT the fmr.
Dem Congressman)

Crane was first elected in 1969 and is the senior most member of the
House GOP Caucus. He was turned down last year (AGAIN!) for the Chairmanship of
the Ways & Means Committee and has checked in for alcohol rehab. He has had
close calls before. Will this be the year he's defeated?

IN-04 - GOP Primary - Rep. Steve Buyer vs. fmr. Congressional aide Dennis Hardy

Buyer has recently come under fire for alleged lying about leaving
to go into active duty in Iraq. Will this be his political death knell for
Buyer?

MD-01 GOP Primary - Rep. Wayne Gilchrest vs. State Sen. Richard Colburn

In 2002, the liberal Gilchrest did not-so-well against an unknown
conservative challenger in this socially conservative district. Colburn, a state
senator, should do well in March's primary.

MD-06 - GOP Primary - Rep. Roscoe Bartlett vs. Frederick Co. State's Attorney
Scott Rolle.

Bartlett has a serious challenger in Rolle in this conservative
district. Rolle assails Bartlett for not being as conservative as he claims.

MO-05 - DEM Primary - Rep. Karen McCarthy vs. Foreign Policy Consultant Jamie
Metzl vs. Public Policy Consultant Damian Thorman (so far!)

McCarthy is known for her alleged abuse of staff and high turnover
in her office. She recently checked into rehab and is facing calls to retire.

NJ-05 - GOP Primary - Rep. Scott Garrett vs. state Assemlyman Dave Russo

Garrett, a conservative two-time challenger to fmr. Rep. Marge
Roukema won the 2002 primary with 43% (when Roukema decided to retire) against a
plethora of moderate challengers. Russo, the runner up in the 2002 GOP primary
in this district, may give Garrett a taste of his own medicine when he will
likely be the sole moderate primary challenger to Garrett in this socially
liberal-to-moderate leaning district.

NY-24 - GOP Primary - Rep. Sherwood "Sherry" Boehlert vs. Cayuga Co. legislator
Dr. David Walrath.

Walrath, despite being far behind in campaign monies, almost upset
to moderate-to-liberal Boehlert in last year's primary. Expect funding from
conservative groups next year.

NY-29 - GOP Primary - Rep. Amo Houghton vs. Monroe Co. legislator Mark Assini

The socially liberal Dow chemical scion could face a serious primary
- IF he decides to run for re-election.

PA-09 - GOP Primary - Rep. Bill Shuster vs. business consultant Michael
DelGrosso

Shuster, elected in 2001 to succeed his legendary father, is
embroiled in a possible scandal regarding allegations from a former aide who
alleges he was assigned to spy on DelGrosso's fundraisers and campign functions.

VA-08 DEM Primary - Rep. Jim Moran vs. fmr. congressional aide Andy Rosenburg

Moran found himself in hot water when he was quoted saying
potentially anti-Semetic remarks at a townhall meeting on Iraq. He could lose
his primary in an upset even though bigger hitters have stood down.

---got this off another board--very good list of incumbants being challenged itn eh primaries

[jravnsbo]

no link the guy that did it made the list himself through research.

---got this off another board--very good list of incumbants being challenged itn eh primaries

Looks like good info, What's the link to the source?

[jravnsbo]

Files: Calif. Congresswoman Broke Rules    
By ERICA WERNER, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - California Rep. Jane Harman's 1994 campaign for Congress benefited from $21,000 illegally funneled from a Hughes Aircraft Co. fund-raising event, newly released documents show.

The records were made public by the Federal Election Commission (news - web sites) this week after being discovered during a review of closed enforcement cases, a commission spokesman said.

Harman, now the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, was never punished because a federal judge said her campaign didn't commit deliberate or serious violations.

At issue was an Oct. 29, 1993, fund-raiser Hughes held for Harman at its El Segundo, Calif., headquarters. Corporations are prohibited from donating to federal candidates, and the money was given by individual company employees so that it would not violate the law.

However, a Hughes employee collected the money and gave it to Harman's campaign staff, violating a prohibition against corporations acting as "conduits" for contributions, a judge said.

Hughes paid a $40,000 civil penalty to the FEC in 1996 to resolve the matter, the records show.


U.S. District Judge Christina Snyder in August 1999 found that Harman's campaign violated the law but refused the FEC's request for a fine, injunction or demand for repayment. She noted in part that Harman's campaign had apparently relied on incorrect legal advice from a Hughes attorney.


The release of the documents is a belated final chapter to Harman's campaign for a second term in Congress, which she won by a mere 812 votes over Susan Brooks, former mayor of Ranchos Palos Verdes. During the race, Brooks angered Democrats by filing a complaint with the FEC about the Hughes fund-raiser for Harman.


Since then Hughes Aircraft has been sold to Raytheon and Harman has become a leading intelligence authority in Congress, after a two-year break from Washington for an unsuccessful run for governor.

[jravnsbo]

Texas Rep. Hall to Switch to Republicans    

[jravnsbo]

Texas Rep. Hall to Switch to Republicans    
2 hours, 18 minutes ago  Add Politics - U. S. Congress to My Yahoo!
 

By DAVID ESPO and SUZANNE GAMBOA, AP Special Correspondent

WASHINGTON - Texas Rep. Ralph Hall switched parties Friday night, filing for re-election as a Republican after nearly a quarter-century as one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress.

   

"I've always said that if being a Democrat hurt my district I would switch or I would resign," Hall said in an interview with The Associated Press. He said GOP leaders had recently refused to place money for his district in a spending bill and "the only reason I was given was I was a Democrat."


In an interview in which he said he had filed to run as a Republican, he also said he didn't agree with "all these guys running against the president."


Hall's switch follows a GOP-led drive — bitterly contested by Democrats — to remake Texas' congressional districts more to their liking. Party strategists contend they can gain five or more seats through a mid-decade redistricting, a change that could greatly strengthen their grip on power in the House.


Before Hall's move, the House had 228 Republicans, 205 Democrats, 1 Democrat-leaning independent and 1 vacancy.


In addition to representing a personal change, Hall's defection had historic overtones. His district in Texas includes territory once represented in Congress by the late Sam Rayburn, who served as a Democratic speaker for much of the time between 1940 and 1961.


House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., said he looked forward to working with Hall in the majority party.


"Ralph is a man of courage and a man of great conviction," Hastert said. "Common sense continues to guide him in Washington and now in the Republican Party."


Fellow Texan Tom DeLay, the House majority leader, called Hall on Friday to welcome him to the party.


"Democrats are reaping what they've sown," DeLay said. "Their leaders have lined up behind Howard Dean (news - web sites)'s brand of angry, intolerant politics. They've made their message clear: 'moderates need not apply' and that's a sad trend for a once-great party."


President Bush (news - web sites) also praised Hall.


"I welcome Congressman Ralph Hall to the Republican Party," Bush said. "Ralph is a close friend of the Bush family. He is a well-respected leader of the highest integrity, and a tireless advocate for the people of Texas."


Rep. Martin Frost, Texas' most senior Democrat, declined comment late Friday.


Republican sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Hall privately relayed word of his intentions to White House officials and other senior GOP officials earlier in the day.


Hall, 80, was first elected to the House in 1980.


Hall has long been among the most conservative Democrats in Congress. Speculation that he might switch parties first surfaced in 1995, when the GOP gained control of the House for the first time in 40 years.


He said then he wouldn't, arguing that it would be better to try and move the Democratic party toward the middle.

   



Hall's sons, one a Texas judge and the other a lawyer, had been considered possible candidates for their father's congressional seats if Hall resigned. Hall said Friday his party switch would make it easier for his sons to run should he eventually resign, but he added, "Neither of my sons seems interested in coming to Congress."

Democrats have sued to block the new redistricting plan, arguing it violates minority rights. The Justice Department (news - web sites) has approved the plan, and a court ruling on its legality is expected shortly.

Texas Republican Party spokesman Ted Royer said Hall was the 174th elected Texas Democrat to join the Republican Party since 1992.

--makes it a little harder to gain control though for Dems.

[jravnsbo]

Cooksey was very popular there and would probably win it too.

Utah has a Democrat as one of it's representatives?
Matheson is toast.

Rodney Alexander (LA-5) doesn't look very vunerable at the moment.

Mike Rodgers(AL-3) could be in serious trouble, ditto Max Burns(GA-12)

 

There's talk that Cooksey could run against Alexander. I'm not sure how much of a slam dunk that would be, but the divided GOP electorate seriously boosted Alexander.

[jravnsbo]

Race Is on to Replace Janklow
 With the South Dakota congressman bowing out after his conviction in a fatal crash, more than a dozen seek the state's U.S. House seat.

 
      Times Headlines  
 
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Inside the 2004 Campaign Tool Chest: Blogs and Online Voting
 
 
Race Is on to Replace Janklow
 
 
more >
 
 
       
 
 
 
 
 JANKLOW WILLIAM J HERSETH STEPHANIE  
 
 SOUTH DAKOTA ELECTIONS  
 
 THE NATION  
 
 SOUTH DAKOTA  
 
 ELECTIONS  
 

 

   
 
 
 
 
 
 
By P.J. Huffstutter, Times Staff Writer


CHICAGO — In the weeks before Christmas, attorney Stephanie Herseth was practically glued to her telephone. She checked in with family. She rang up friends. She hailed her neighbors, her clients, her students at South Dakota State University — even the occasional stranger — with holiday greetings. And with talk of politics.

In the wake of Republican Rep. William J. Janklow's manslaughter conviction last month and his subsequent resignation from Congress, more than a dozen candidates in this rural state have been campaigning for South Dakota's only House seat.

     
 
 
   
     
 
Herseth is one. Her competition includes a farmer, an accountant, a utilities commissioner, a mayor, a state senator and even a retired U.S. congressman.

While the number of candidates is small in comparison to the more than 125 who obtained enough signatures to be on California's recall ballot, it's still a lot for a state that has fewer than half a million registered voters.

"I'm not taking anything for granted," said Herseth, a Democrat who lost the 2002 U.S. House race to Janklow by a few thousand votes. "When I decided to run, I made that decision regardless of who else ran. But the political landscape here is totally different because of what happened last August."

On a hot summer day, on a back road just south of Jank- low's hometown of Flandreau, S.D., the politician ran a stop sign at an estimated 70 mph, striking and killing a 55-year-old motorcyclist.

Janklow, who was found guilty of second-degree manslaughter and three lesser charges, is facing up to 11 years in prison, an $11,000 fine and the end of his political career. His resignation is effective Jan. 20, the day of his sentencing hearing at the Moody County Circuit Courthouse in Flandreau.

However, Janklow's attorney recently filed a motion asking for either a new trial or an acquittal on the manslaughter charge. The document claims prosecutors did not present enough evidence to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Janklow was guilty of the felony charge.

The congressman and his attorney, Ed Evans, declined to comment on the matter.

Few political figures in this state have bothered to distance themselves from Janklow since his legal troubles began. Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.), who was subpoenaed by the defense and testified in the manslaughter case, repeatedly has praised Janklow for the good he accomplished during his tenure as state attorney general and a four-term governor.

"In public life, I would hope that a person is remembered not for the last thing he did, but for the best thing," Daschle said in a statement after the guilty verdict. "I believe that Bill Janklow has done a lot of 'best things.' "

Janklow's departure, however, will leave the state without its only vote in the House until a special election is held June 1. South Dakota law requires that a special election be held within 90 days after a U.S. House member resigns — unless, as is the case with Janklow, that date is within six months of a previously scheduled election.

Voters will decide two issues June 1: The open special election will determine who will serve out Janklow's term. And the state primary that day will determine the Republican and Democratic candidates who will be among those vying for a two-year term that begins in January 2005.

Whoever wins the June special election will be considered the incumbent in the November general election. However, it is possible that the candidate who serves out Janklow's term still could lose on the primary ballot.

State Republican officials say they want to avoid a split in the party at all costs. Back in 1962, the last time South Dakota had a special election, Republican Sen. Francis Case won the party's nomination but died before the general election. The state party was split over who would replace Case, and Democrat George S. McGovern beat the Republicans and won the Senate seat.

Herseth is widely seen as the leading contender for the Democratic special election nomination, which the party is expected to announce by the end of January. The Republican slot — as well as the possibility of a slew of independent candidates — appears to be wide open.

Jeff Partridge, a city councilman in Rapid City, S.D., elected just this year, has begun touting his "conservative approach" to local newspapers. Friends have been talking to Steve Kirby, a former state lieutenant governor, to convince him to run for Congress — and he has started analyzing the competition.

Larry Diedrich, a Republican state senator from Elkton, said he had already started outlining potential campaign stops and budgets.

"It's going to be an odd election," Diedrich said. "This is our California campaign craziness, I suppose."

Regardless of who wins in June, much of South Dakota's political establishment is uneasy about the circumstances that have led to the election.

"It does feel, at times, that we're dancing on graves," said Jason Schulte, executive director for the state Democratic Party. "I'd be lying if I said we didn't feel bad about the fact that a man lost his life, and another man may lose his freedom, for this special election to happen."

[jravnsbo]

No Arizona rematch
    Democrat George Cordova, who lost a close race for a newly created Arizona congressional seat in 2002, will not seek a rematch, party leaders said Monday.
    Many Democrats believed a rematch between Mr. Cordova and Republican Rick Renzi represented the party's best chance to take over the seat, United Press International reports. Mr. Renzi narrowly won the 2002 contest in the state's 1st Congressional District, 49 percent to 46 percent.
    Mr. Cordova's decision clears the way for Coconino County Supervisor Paul Babbitt, brother of former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt, to run unopposed for the party's nomination.
     

[jravnsbo]

Good site, thanks.

The current Rothenberg Political Report has an analysis of Senate, House and Governor races.  A subscription is needed to see the analysis, but all the competitive House races are listed at the free site.  As of Jan 10, only 17 Republican and 15 Democratic seats are listed as competitive.  With such a small number of competitive seats it is unlikely the Democrats can win control of the House.  Given the new TX redistricting the Republicans will very likely expand their control.
see:
http://www.rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/

[jravnsbo]

as to person about IA delegation.  They are safe seats, dems tried last time hard and were all defeated soundly.  They may have a chance in 2006 as Rep King ( west IA) and Nussle , budget chairman  I think, wboth have expressed interest in running for Governor.

[jravnsbo]

You just se eit in the South, Dems are discouraged.  You have 5 people retiring as they know that their party will not gaint he majority int he Senate.  

Next int eh House Hall tried to move them more center, but failed.  Seeing that the Dems would be int he minority for along period , plus redistrcting he bolted.

[jravnsbo]

good site.

So he is predicting the dems to pick up sezats int he house though?  Odd.

DC Politics is the only site I've found that predicts every race, using a 5 star system 1* boringly safe to 5***** very exciting.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Ratings.htm

So far he has picked 4 seats to go from R to D (the two specials SD and KY-6) and GA 11 and GA12.  In contrast the only D seats to switch to R are three new TX seats, but the TX seats have not been updated since the final filings last Friday.

[jravnsbo]

Yeah I like Crystal ball about the best.  seems fair.  Not sure if you are signed up for Sabato's e-mails, but he has updated presidential race thoughts after yesterday.  Plus delegate counts and such.

He is a Democrat and his predictions usually lean that way.  He tries to be balanced though and will usually add other predictions (Crystal Ball, etc.) on the page.  However that usually just makes his bias more obvious

good site.

So he is predicting the dems to pick up sezats int he house though?  Odd.

DC Politics is the only site I've found that predicts every race, using a 5 star system 1* boringly safe to 5***** very exciting.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Ratings.htm

So far he has picked 4 seats to go from R to D (the two specials SD and KY-6) and GA 11 and GA12.  In contrast the only D seats to switch to R are three new TX seats, but the TX seats have not been updated since the final filings last Friday.

[jravnsbo]

yeah no chance for a whooping!

Lampson is not running against DeLay.
Were's the drama gone dammit!