Ireland Election 2007

[Sibboleth]

What with Ahern getting caught up in scandals, I might as well put this up now.

Any polls?

[afleitch]

http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/IOPA/
Historical data here, but that's all I can find

Some people are saying the government could collapse in the next few days :/

[afleitch]

Ah here we go- something recent

Irish Examiner Poll (19/9)

FF 39% +1
FG 24% +1
Lab 10% -2
SF 9% -1
Grn 6% -
Ind 6% -
PD 6% +1

[frenger]

As long as PD are good.

[Jas]

What with Ahern getting caught up in scandals, I might as well put this up now.

Some people are saying the government could collapse in the next few days :/

Ahern has been caught up in a scandal. It emerged recently in The Irish Times that back in 1992/3, whilest Ahern was going thorugh seperation proceedings with his then wife Miriam, that he was experiencing some financial difficulties in meeting certain commitments which formed part of the seperation agreement. About a dozen businessmen gave him a few thousand pounds each to cover these costs. This money was never repaid, though according to Ahern and the businessmen offers were made to repay the money but these were refused. At the time Ahern was the Minister for Finance.

The Fianna Fáil/Progressive Democrat government is in it's final months anyway. An election would have to be held next June at the latest. It is quite likely that it will be held next May, despite the current scandal and even if Ahern was to fall (which I doubt). The governement has a fairly stable majority and even if the PD's pulled out, Fianna Fáil could probably stumble through to next May with the help of FF leaning Independents.

Any polls?

Ah here we go- something recent

Irish Examiner Poll (19/9)

FF 39% +1
FG 24% +1
Lab 10% -2
SF 9% -1
Grn 6% -
Ind 6% -
PD 6% +1

The Examiner poll is the most recent but two significant events have happened since. 1 - The Ahern Scandal; 2 - The replacement of Mary Harney as leader of the Progressive Democrats and as Tánaiste (Deputy PM). She was replaced by Michael McDowell, the Minister for Justice (=Home Secretary in British system). McDowell is a divisive figure and his effect on PD support will be interesting.

One would also note that all the usual provisios with polls apply and that the use of STV here means that this polls are only ever a rough guide at best, as the effect of transfers is difficult to factor in.

[Sibboleth]

A new poll:

FF 33%
FG 25%
Lab 14%
Inds 9%
SF 8%
Grn 7%
PD 4%

[Harry Hayfield]

Is there such a thing as an electoral calulator (along the lines of UK Elect) for the Irish Dail?

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm not sure which party I'd support. I'm UK Labour so I might be predisposed to the Irish Labour Party but me being me, I like to line up behind a "big beast", so it might be Fine Gael. I don't know. I'd have to check out where FG and Fianna Fail stand on the issues that matter to me

Dave

[Colin]

I'm not sure which party I'd support. I'm UK Labour so I might be predisposed to the Irish Labour Party but me being me, I like to line up behind a "big beast", so it might be Fine Gael. I don't know. I'd have to check out where FG and Fianna Fail stand on the issues that matter to me

Dave

Well Fine Gael and Fianna Fail usually institute the measures of their coalition partners in recent years. However Fine Gael is usually considered to be a Christian Democratic party and Fianna Fail to be a conservative party. Fianna Failhas become more economically conservative since they've been coalitioning with the PD and Fine Gael usually becomes more leftist when it coalitions with Labour.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm not sure which party I'd support. I'm UK Labour so I might be predisposed to the Irish Labour Party but me being me, I like to line up behind a "big beast", so it might be Fine Gael. I don't know. I'd have to check out where FG and Fianna Fail stand on the issues that matter to me

Dave

Well Fine Gael and Fianna Fail usually institute the measures of their coalition partners in recent years. However Fine Gael is usually considered to be a Christian Democratic party and Fianna Fail to be a conservative party. Fianna Failhas become more economically conservative since they've been coalitioning with the PD and Fine Gael usually becomes more leftist when it coalitions with Labour.

I did a votesmart test. It came out Green, Labour, Progressive Democrat, Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein

I'd be Labour or FG since I'm fairly comfortable with social democracy and Christian Democracy - so I dare say a coalition between the two would suit me

Dave

[Jas]

Is there such a thing as an electoral calulator (along the lines of UK Elect) for the Irish Dail?

Not that I know of.

I'm not sure which party I'd support. I'm UK Labour so I might be predisposed to the Irish Labour Party but me being me, I like to line up behind a "big beast", so it might be Fine Gael. I don't know. I'd have to check out where FG and Fianna Fail stand on the issues that matter to me

Dave

I strongly suspect you would fit in best with Fine Gael.

[Jas]

A new TNS mrbi - Irish Times poll out today. The poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday at 100 points across all constituencies. 1000 surveyed, 3% margin of error.

Party support levels (excluding undecideds)
Change is measured from the previous mrbi poll carried out in May.

FF:  39 (+8)   
FG: 26 (-2)
Lab: 11 (-4)
SF: 8 (-1)
PD: 4 (+1)
Green: 6 (+1)
Other: 6 (-3)

As a guide at the last election in May 2002, the frst preference spilt was:
FF: 42
FG: 22
Lab: 11
SF: 7
PD: 4
Green: 4
Other: 11

This poll is Fianna Fáils highest rating since that election and Labour's lowest. Fine Gael's high point was the poll in May (28%). Sinn Féin have been on a very gradual downward trend since 2004 when they peaked at 12%.

Satisfaction ratings (Satsified - Dissatisfied) ; (Change in Satisfied)
Ahern (FF) [Taoiseach/PM] 53 - 41 (+1)
McDowell (PD) [Tánaiste/Dep. PM] 32 - 44
(First poll since became PD leader; Mary Harney, his predecessor, had a satisfaction rating of 34% in the previous poll).
Kenny (FG) 42 -34 (+2)
Rabitte (Lab) 48 - 28 (+7)
Sargent (Green) 43 - 21 (+8)
Adams (SF) 43 - 26 (+4)


The poll also included questions on the recent Ahern payments scandal.

Do you believe that it was right or wrong for Bertie Ahern to accept 50,000 euro in payments from his friends while he was Minister for Finance in 1993?
Right - 24
Wrong - 64
Don't Know/ No Opinion - 12

Do you believe that it was right or wrong for Bertie Ahern to accept £8,000 from businessmen friends in Manchester after speaking at a function while he was Minister for Finance in 1994?
Right - 23
Wrong - 66
DK/No opinion - 11

The new Progressive Democrat leader, Michael McDowell, has said that Mr Ahern is fit to remain as Taoiseach and that their coalition will continue. As PD leader, do you believe he took the right or wrong stance for his party?
Right - 47
Wrong - 36
DK/No opinion - 17

[Sibboleth]

Prime Minister alleged to be involved in genuine financial corruption. Prime Minister's party gains 8pts in the polls.

Any reason for that?

[Jas]

Prime Minister alleged to be involved in genuine financial corruption. Prime Minister's party gains 8pts in the polls.

Any reason for that?

Very, very difficult to explain. (I can't and any analysis I've seen has been unconvincing.) The original payments seem to have been accepted by the public as wrong but understandable given his circumstances at the time.

It seems that the people accept what Ahern did was wrong but that it doesn't amount to corruption (at least not like the sort of corruption we have seen in the Haughey years). Ahern is also just a likeable guy á la Blair (pre-Iraq) and Clinton. He lives a rather humble lifestyle, and so charges of corruption against him seem intuitively unrealistic. Sympathy also exists for his personal life at the time.

At no point did the opposition (that I can recall anyway) call for his resignation, indeed for my money most pressure was put on McDowell to see if he would withdraw the PD's from government. They have traditionally been seen to take a whiter than white, purer than pure (if I may steal from Blair) approach. Clearly tensions were high between the government parties and it seems that the coalition came very close to splitting. However, the knowledge that a favourable budget lies just around the corner and that in another poll during the scandal the public were in favour of Bertie carrying on (65-35) were probably significant in McDowell's decision to stay on.

[Jas]

Further data from the same TNS mrbi - Irish Times poll. Unfortunately didn't get yesterdays paper, so this information is gleaned from RTE (the state broadcaster, a la the BBC).
Government Approval
Satisfaction: 46 (+6; since previous poll in May)
Dissatisfaction: 47 (-3)

Preferred Government after next election
FF/PD (Current Government): 36 (+4)
FG/Lab/Green: 31 (-5)

Top Priority in Deciding Vote
Public Services: 56
Economy: 13
Crime: 12
Preventing Government Spending Waste: 9
Taxes: 6

Another poll is out in today's Sunday Tribune. Should have details of that up later.