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« Reply #50 on: January 31, 2007, 02:49:54 pm »
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Leinster: Part I

I'll be doing Dublin seperately from Leinster later because, as all right-minded Irish people know, Dublin should be excluded or at least clearly seperated from the rest of the country at every possible instance.

Carlow - Kilkenny (5)

Prediction:
McGuinness, John (FF)* - Safe   
Aylward, Bobby (FF) - Safe FF
Hogan, Phil (FG)* - Safe   
Phelan, John Paul (FG) - Tossup
White, Mary (GP) - Tossup

EDIT (22 May):
With the Greens riding high in the polls,  Cllr Mary White will be seen as one of the favourites to join their ranks in the next session. FG will also be keenly contesting here, though once again I think they're running one too many candidates. Should be between White (GP), Townsend (Lab) and Phelan (FG) for the last seats.

Current: 3 FF; 1 FG; 1 Lab
Prediction: 2 FF; 2 FG; 1 GP
Change: FG +1; GP +1; FF -1; Lab -1

Kildare North (4 seater, was 3)   

Prediction:
Stagg, Emmet (Lab)* - Safe
Brady, Áine (FF) - Safe FF
Durkan, Bernard (FG)* - Safe FG
Murphy, Catherine (Ind)* - Tossup

EDIT (22 May):
Significant population growth in Kildare has led to a new seat in play here. In 2002, FF, FG and Lab all got one in, but in 2005 a by-election resulted in the election of Murphy (Ind) with the movement of the Minister for Finance Charlie McCreevy to a Commissionership in Brussels. Predicting a result of 1 FF; 1 FG; 1 Lab; and 1 Ind.

Current: 1 Lab; 1 Ind; 1 FG
Prediction: 1 FF; 1 Lab; 1 Ind; 1 FG
Change: FF +1

Kildare South (3)   

Prediction:   
Wall, Jack (Lab)* - Safe
Power, Sean (FF)* - Safe
Ó Fearghaíl, Seán (FF)* - Tossup
   
EDIT (8 May):
Wall should be safe, same for Power. The last should be contested between FF and FG. I think Ó Fearghaíl retains the advantage and should be ahead for most of the count anyway. FG will need to transfer well to each other and gain transfers well from elsewhere. At this stage, I still think it's a bit too much to ask - but certainly doable.

Current: 2 FF; 1 Lab   
Prediction: 2 FF; 1 Lab   
Change: None

Laois - Offaly (5)

Prediction:   
Cowen, Brian (FF)* - Safe
Enright, Olwyn (FG)* - Safe
Moloney, John (FF)* - Safe FF
Fleming, Sean (FF)* - Tossup
Flanagan, Charles (FG) - Tossup

EDIT (26 April):
Plenty of FF votes here, with reasonable transfer retention they should take 3. The last 2 seats will be a battle between Parlon (PD); Fleming (FF); and Flanagan (FG). Just about any 2 of them can make it. I've changed my original prediction to put Flanagan in for Parlon.  I expect Parlon to lose a reasonable share of his vote and to be less transfer friendly than in 2002. Flanagan has been working the ground hard and as a prior TD in the area always had a solid base to work off.

Current: 3 FF; 1 PD; 1 FG
Prediction: 3 FF; 2 FG
Change: FG +1; PD -1

Longford - Westmeath (4)

Prediction:      
Penrose, Willie (Lab)* - Safe
O'Rourke, Mary (FF) - Safe FF   
Kelly, Peter (FF)* - Safe FF   
Bannon, James (FG) - Lean FG

A new constituency here, so my prediction likely to be all the more wobbly.
Mary O'Rourke, former Minister and current leader of the Seanad, will probably win back her seat, presumably at the expense of the guy who unseated her, Donny Cassidy. I think Mae Sexton (PD) is the least safe sitting TD in the country. She was very, very lucky to get in last time, and it's quite unlikely that she can be saved this time. Predict FG gain, though no telling which of their guys is best placed at this stage.

Current: 2 FF; 1 FG; 1 Lab; 1 PD
Prediction: 2 FF; 1 Lab; 1 FG      
Change: PD -1      

More later.   
« Last Edit: May 22, 2007, 09:08:22 am by Jas »Logged

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« Reply #51 on: February 01, 2007, 10:18:02 am »
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Leinster: Part II

Louth (4)

Prediction:   
Ahern, Dermot (FF)* - Safe
Morgan, Arthur (SF)* - Safe
O'Dowd, Fergus (FG)* - Safe FG
McGuinness, Mairéad (FG)* - Tossup

EDIT (9 May)
Both Ahern and Morgan should be fine. O'Dowd should also be okay. The battle here is for the final seat between incumbent Seamas Kirk (FF); Leinster MEP Mairéad McGuinness (FG); and possibly Mark Dearey (Green). McGuinness is no ordinary candidate, she has a very high profile - as a former agricultural journalist in the papers and on TV. She has very strong presentational skills and used these to her advantage in taking a European seat for FG in Leinster with the odds strongly against her.

Transfers will be crucial here. Both FF and FG have another candidate beyond those mentioned down the pecking order. The strenght of the party's transfer retention and vote management will be crucial. the most important factor IMO though, is the destination of the transfers of the Labour candidate (Gerard Nash). I'd expect McGuinness and Dearey to do best from these. On the balance of everything, McGuinness gets the nod for the final seat...for now.

Current: 2 FF; 1 FG; SF
Prediciton: 1 FF; 2 FG; SF
Change: FF -1; FG +1

Meath East (3)

Prediction:   
McEntee, Shane (FG)* - Safe
Wallace, Mary (FF)* - Safe
Hannigan, Dominic (Lab) - Lean

The old Meath constituency (5 seater) has been split into two 3-seaters to reflect the population growth caused by Dubliners need to escape the city and generally interfere with the poor folk beyond the Pale. Tongue Anyway...

Meath East will be all about the third and final seat. The 3 contenders are Thomas Byrne (FF); Brian Fitzgerald (Ind) and Dominic Hannigan (Lab). It seems that Mary Wallace is, shall we say, less than co-operative with her running-mate, Mr Byrne. With proper vote management, FF taking 2 here would be a very reasonable prospect. As it is though, I think they're blowing their chances. Fitzgerald and Hannigan will be after the left-ist vote and whoever outlasts the other is in with a very good shot of getting the seat. It should be Hannigan's seat to lose.

Current: 1 FF; 1 FG
Prediction: 1 FF; 1 FG; 1 Lab   
Change: Lab +1

Meath West (3)   

Prediction:
Dempsey, Noel (FF)* - Safe
English, Damien (FG)* - Safe
Brady, Johnny (FF)* - Lean

If anyone falls here, it will most likely be Brady. However, at the moment I don't see any individual candidate who can get the necessary transfers. So, I'll predict all 3 to hold for the time being.

Current: 2 FF; 1 FG
Prediction: 2 FF; 1 FG   
Change: None
« Last Edit: May 09, 2007, 05:44:41 am by Jas »Logged

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« Reply #52 on: February 01, 2007, 10:34:20 am »

A poll I saw shows that the Fine Gael is falling back...
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« Reply #53 on: February 01, 2007, 01:13:17 pm »
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Leinster: Part III

Wexford (5)

Prediction:
Browne, John (FF)* - Safe
Howlin, Brendan (Lab)* - Safe
Kehoe, Paul (FG)* - Safe
Twomey, Liam (FG)* - Safe FG
Connick, Sean (FF) - Lean

Realistically, it's hard to see much other than the above prediction coming about. Both Twomey and Connick could be unseated by fellow party members and there's certainly a real and growing SF vote here, but I think that effectively Wexford will remain unchanged after the election.

Current: 2 FF; 2 FG; 1 Lab
Prediction: 2 FF; 2 FG; 1 Lab
Change: None

Wicklow (5)   

Prediction:   
McManus, Liz (Lab)* - Safe   
Timmons, Billy (FG)* - Lean
Roche, Dick (FF)* - Lean
deBúrca, Deirdre (GP) - Tossup
Kelly, Nicky (Lab) - Tossup

EDIT (8 May):
2 of the sitting 5 TD's retiring here, FF's Joe Jacob and Independent (but v. pro-FF) Mildred Fox.  Based on the 2002 returns, Labour are best placed to capitalise, but Nicky Kelly is a controversial candidate. The Greens and FF will be chasing the last two seats along with Kelly.

There is the possibility of an upset from Independent candidate Evelyn Cawley though that can't be ruled out. Neither can I seriously assess the strength of her chances - but nonetheless one to watch.

Current: 2 FF; 1 FG; 1 Lab; 1 Ind
Prediction: 2 Lab; 1 FF; 1 FG; 1 GP
Change: Lab +1; GP +1; Ind -1; FF -1

Leinster (excluding Dublin) Prediction Overall
Current: 19 FF; 10 FG; 6 Lab; 2 PD; 1 SF; 2 Ind
Prediction: 17 FF; 13 FG; 7 Lab; 2 GP; 1 SF; 1 Ind
Change: FF -2; FG +3; Lab +1; PD -2; GP +2; Ind -1

Only Dublin left.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2007, 09:12:15 am by Jas »Logged

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« Reply #54 on: February 01, 2007, 01:19:15 pm »
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A poll I saw shows that the Fine Gael is falling back...

I presume that's the one mentioned at the top of this page.
They've been polling quite consistenty in the low 20's. Something's going to have to change if they want to get back into government.
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« Reply #55 on: February 01, 2007, 02:00:26 pm »
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Dublin: Part I

Dublin Central (4)

Prediction:   
Ahern, Bertie (FF)* - Safe
Gregory, Tony (Ind)* - Lean
McDonald, Mary Lou (SF) - Lean
Costello, Joe (Lab)* - Tossup

EDIT (22 May):
The only sure thing here is An Taoiseach himself, but both Costello and Gregory should also be okay. Predicting a SF gain here - though had SF run Nicky Kehoe (who lost very marginally last time), I'd have said he was probably safe. Instead they've run, the high-profile Mary Lou McDonald - who has pretty much been the face of the SF campaign so far. With the Labour vote falling accoridng to polls nationally and the presence of other strong leftists here (Gregory; McDonald and McKenna [GP]), Costello may be under pressure from FG (O'Donoghue).

Change: 2 FF; 1 Lab; 1 Ind
Prediction: 1 FF; 1 Lab; 1 SF; 1 Ind
Change: FF -1; SF +1

Dublin Mid-West (4, up from 3)

Prediction:      
Curran, John (FF)* - Safe   
Gogarty, Paul (GP)* - Lean
Harney, Mary (PD)* - Tossup   
Tuffy, Joanna (FG) - Tossup

EDIT (22 May):
Extra seat up for grabs in Dublin MW - thus depressing the quota needed and so aiding the incumbants' chances. Indeed on current numbers the constituency should have another extra seat such has been the population growth. This rapid and recent demographic change makes predicting particularly difficult. Harney has had a less than wonderful time in the Ministry of Health and the PDs are under serious pressure now. Francis Fitzgerald (FG); Joanna Tuffy (Lab); Joanne Spain (SF); and Derek Keating (Ind) should all do well. One of the most difficult constituencies to call.

Current: 1 FF; 1 PD; 1 GP
Prediction: 1 FF; 1 PD; 1 GP; 1 Lab      
Change: Lab +1      

Dublin North (4)

Prediction:      
Sargent, Trevor (GP)* - Safe   
Kennedy, Michael (FF) - Safe FF
Reilly, James (FG) - Tossup
Daly, Clare (Soc) - Tossup

Sargent is the only sitting TD seeking re-election here and should be fine. There is certainly at least one FF seat here which Kennedy is best placed to take. As to the final seat, it's a genuine tossup between FF and Clare Daly (Socialist). Ms Daly will be contesting this seat for the 4th time now. She has had an ever increasing vote share and with the two FF incumbents retiring, this may be as good a chance as she's likely to get.

Predicting the Labour seat to go to FG here also. Sean Ryan is the outgoing Labour TD and his brother Brendan is running in his place. Dr. James Reilly (FG) is likely to be a serious threat to deprive Labour of the seat. The FG loss of this seat in 2002 was the moment of the election, with Nora Owen of the FG frontbench and former Justice Minister losing out during our experiment with electronic voting.

Current: 2 FF; 1 GP; 1 Lab
Prediction: 1 GP; 1 FF; 1 FG; 1 Soc      
Change: FF -1; Lab-1; Soc +1; FG +1
« Last Edit: May 22, 2007, 11:47:57 am by Jas »Logged

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« Reply #56 on: February 02, 2007, 09:02:48 am »
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New Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll published today.

Headline figures: (Change since November)
FF 37 (-3)
FG 26 (-1)
Lab 11 (Unchanged)
SF 9 (+2)
GP 8 (+4)
PD 1 (-2)
Ind 8 (Unchanged)

Satisfaction Ratings: Satisfied - Dissatisfied (Change in Satisfieds)
Ahern (FF) 56 - 37 (-3)
Kenny (FG) 41 - 35 (-2)
Rabbitte (Lab) 47 - 29 (+1)
Adams (SF) 50 - 26 (+7)
Sargent (GP) 40 - 22 (Unchanged)
McDowell (PD) 44 - 39 (+6)

Government satisfaction 48%

The one figure that stands out here is the PD's polling at 1%. Despite McDowell increasing his personal satisfaction rating by 6 points, his party are well within the margin of error of having any support at all.

TNS mrbi have now consistenty polled FG at around the 26/27 mark for the past few polls, compared to RedC who for the same period have polled them at around 21/22%. It should be noted that TNS mrbi adjust their figures. The support for the parties adjusted only for undecideds in their poll is as follows:
FF 43 (-3)
FG 23 (-1)
Lab 10 (Unchanged)
SF 8 (+2)
GP 7 (+3)
PD 1 (-1)
Ind 8 (Unchanged)

These are much closer to the figures seen in the RedC monthly tracking polls. However, where the truth lies, or will lie on election day, is far beyond my wisdom to figure out.
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« Reply #57 on: February 02, 2007, 10:20:45 am »
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Dublin: Part II

Dublin North-Central (3)

Prediction:   
Bruton, Richard (FG)* - Safe
Haughey, Sean (FF)* - Safe FF
Callelly, Ivor (FF)* - Tossup

EDIT (22 May):
Boundary redrawing has led to a loss of a seat here. Richard Bruton (FG Dep. Leader) is safe and should top the poll. FF are trying to hold two - Sean Haughey (son of you know who) and Ivor Callelly. Up until now, I had this down as an FF loss, but due to there recent bounce I'm reinstating this seat. But it will be a mighty challenge from a abrage of leftist candidates, the frontrunner of which is the other incumbent, Finian McGrath (Ind).

The Greens (Bronwen Maher) would have had this on there target list and former TD from here Derek McDowell (Lab) will also be trying to claw back in. SF are also running and though unlikely to take a seat should get a resopectable return. The massive fracturing of the leftist vote is a key reason for my prediction, I think transfers will leak out just too much and leave FF with 2.

Current: 2 FF; 1 FG; 1 Ind
Prediction: 2 FF; 1 FG
Change: Ind -1   

Dublin North-East (3)   

Prediction:   
Woods, Michael (FF)* - Safe
Broughan, Tommy (Lab)* - Safe   
O'Reilly, Larry (SF) - Tossup

While transfers will be an issue, I think Larry O'Reilly is well placed to make a serious challenge for the second FF seat, held by Martin Brady. FG will also be there or there abouts in the latter stages looking to pick up this seat.

Current: 2 FF; 1 Lab
Prediction: 1 FF; 1 Lab; 1 SF
Change: FF -1; SF +1

Dublin North-West (3)   

Prediction:   
Ahern, Noel (FF)* - Safe FF   
Shortall, Róisín (Lab)* - Lean
Ellis, Dessie (SF) - Lean

Another Dublin inner-city constituency, another possible SF gain against FF. Though here, taking the seat off Labour is also a distinct possibility. Pat Carey is the sitting FF TD who I've predicted to lose out. It could be quite close between the three for the last 2 seats.

Current: 2 FF; 1 Lab      
Prediction: 1 FF; 1 Lab; 1 SF
Change: FF -1; SF +1

Dublin South (5)

Prediction:   
Brennan, Seamus (FF)* - Safe
Kitt, Tom (FF)* - Lean
Mitchell, Olivia (FG)* - Safe FG
Ryan, Eamon (GP)* - Lean
O'Donnell, Liz (PD)* - Tossup

EDIT (22 May)
Brennan, Kitt, Mitchell and Ryan should all be fine. The last seat is between O'Donnell (PD); FG and Labour - both of whom have too many candidates running (Roll Eyes) in one of the most candidate dense constituencies.

The closer I get to the election the further I downgrade O'Donnell's chances. It's fair to say that most people now think that the PD seat here is gone, and they may well be right, indeed, she could go down in flames, but I'm going to hold out for O'Donnell.

Current: 2 FF: 1 PD; 1 FG; 1 GP   
Prediction: 2 FF: 1 PD; 1 FG; 1 GP
Change: None

Dublin South-Central (5)   

Prediction:
Ardagh, Seán (FF)* - Safe
Mulcahy, Michael (FF)* - Lean
Ó Snodaigh, Aengus (SF)* - Lean
Upton, Mary (Lab)* - Safe Lab
Byrne, Catherine (FG) - Tossup

Gay Mitchell's (FG) decision to stay on as an MEP speaks bucket-loads about his prediction for the next election and indeed his potential leadership chances after that election if Kenny is forced out. The vacancy makes the rest of the sitting TD's that bit safer and puts FG in difficulty of getting a seat at all. It will probably end up a dogfight between Byrne (Lab) and Byrne (FG), which could be very close indeed.

Current: 2 FF; 1 SF; 1 Lab; 1 FG
Prediction: 2 FF; 1 SF; 1 Lab; 1 FG
Change: None
« Last Edit: May 22, 2007, 12:33:12 pm by Jas »Logged

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« Reply #58 on: February 03, 2007, 07:50:37 am »
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I'm well aware of the (rather rude) joke, but what is the actual difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael?
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« Reply #59 on: February 03, 2007, 08:37:51 am »
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I'm well aware of the (rather rude) joke, but what is the actual difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael?

They were on opposite sides in a civil war... and... er...
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« Reply #60 on: February 03, 2007, 11:27:55 am »
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I'm well aware of the (rather rude) joke, but what is the actual difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael?

Now I'm curious as to what that joke is.
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« Reply #61 on: February 03, 2007, 02:39:08 pm »
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I'm well aware of the (rather rude) joke, but what is the actual difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael?

They were on opposite sides in a civil war... and... er...

[Pedant]No they weren't. Cumann na nGaedhael and Anti-Treaty Sinn Fein were on opposite sides in the civil war. Anti-Treaty Sinn Fein later split into Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail over the issue of entering parliament (FF were in favour) while CnG merged with the "Centre party" (mainly made out of ex-home rule politicians) and a group of semi-fascists to form "Fine Gael".[/pedant]

And Since De Valera departed the scene there has been always no difference between the two parties in terms of policy. Only in terms of who votes for whom does it really show anything.

I'm well aware of the (rather rude) joke, but what is the actual difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael?

Now I'm curious as to what that joke is.

The Difference between sh**t and sh**te is what I've often been told. I don't know if that was what Hunter was talking about.
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« Reply #62 on: February 03, 2007, 03:26:26 pm »
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They were on opposite sides in a civil war... and... er...
^^^^

That's possibly as good an answer as you're likely to get.

Fianna Fál were founded in 1926 by the followers of Eamon deValera, as an offshoot of Anti-Treaty Sinn Féin, when a vote proposed by deValera failed at a SF Ard Fheis (Conference). (The vote proposed that Anti-Treaty SF should take their seats in the Dáil if the necessity of the Oath of Allegiance to the British King was removed.)

Shortly thereafter FF were formed. The following were the 6 declared aims of the party (and as I understand it, they have never been changed and remain as avowed aims):

1. To secure the unity and independence of Ireland as a republic.
2. To restore the Irish language as the spoken language of the people and to develop a distinctive national life in accordance with Irish traditions and ideals.
3. To make the resources and wealth of Ireland subservient to the needs and welfare of the people of Ireland.
4. To make Ireland, as far as possible, economically self-contained and self-sufficing.
5. To establish as many families as practicable on the land.
6. By suitable distribution of power to promote the ruralisation of essential industries as opposed to their concentration in cities.

Make of those what you will, clearly strongly nationalist/republican, somewhat social democratic, pro-small farmer, etc. In my view, neither aim 5 nor 6 have ever really been pushed for. Aim 4, self-sufficiency, was an aim of deValera, but no leader since has made any move in that direction.

As for the others, arguments can be made that they are or have been serious aims of the party, but the support any individual aim holds in the party today would vary greatly.

I would suggest that the party has a social-democratic streak, though not a strong one. The party is probably slightly left-of-centre economically, on the whole, but as with all things in FF, the direction of the party will be dictated by those in the key positions. There's little doubt, for example, that the recent long-term Minister for Finance Charlie McCreevy was of the centre right. However, the current Minister, Brian Cowen, is probably left-of-centre. Many supporters of out-and-out leftist parties will decry FF as a right-wing party, but one must bear in mind that over the years a number of significant left-wing economic ideas were brought about by FF.

The party has always been socially conservative and always has been mindful of the Catholic Church though not slavish in following it. In recent times, with the great waning in the Church's influence, I would suggest that FF has moved in certain respects is moving toward the centre. Though, as with Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil is a big-tent party, and fairly wide range of views on all issues exist.

In Ireland, there is a third comparitor for parties after social and economic matters, specifically their position on the North and how 'republican/nationalist' are they? On this scale, FF are unquestionably significantly more 'green' than Fine Gael. They have always been more sympathetic to Sinn Féin than FG, who have traditionally been the most anti-SF party in the South.

Fine Gael  have no declared aims á la FF above (that I know of) - so my analysis will be considerably shorter.

Their position on the North has already been stated. Economically, the party are probably best categorised as Christian Democrats. They are also socially conservative - in this respect it's difficult to find significant difference from Fianna Fáil. However, under the leadership of Garret FitzGerald during the 80's, the party was distinctly more liberal socially than either party has ever been. Though later leaderships have brought the party back to their natural home, IMO.

On the economic scale, I would suggest that FG are to the right of FF and are centrist to right-of-centre. It's more difficult to gauge this though, as FG have never been in governement without the Labour party and so are under their decidedly left-ist influence.

Both parties have changed with their leaderships and any analysis of the difference between the parties at any particular point is probably best measured in terms of the apparent positions of the party leaders on any given issue.
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« Reply #63 on: February 03, 2007, 03:55:17 pm »
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Fine Gael have also been far more anglophilic than Fianna Fail, though this is really more a quality in the past. There were Fine Gaelers would wished Ireland to enter the Second world war, for example. Also Fine Gael were originally "the Commonwealth party" (even though it was an FG-led goverment which made a republic in 1949) and supported Free trade with the UK, as opposed to De Valera's Autarky policy.

The Original divide if anything was between slightly Anglophilic conservative free-trade businessmen and big farmers (FG) and Agriarian nationalists with urban working class support (FF) - though even that was a generalization, and of course is nowhere near true anymore. Though certain groups like those are still more likely to vote for one party over the other.
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« Reply #64 on: February 03, 2007, 03:57:21 pm »
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What, again (I think I read the explanation before, but forgot) is the reason why Ireland has had Presidents since 1938 but didn't become a Republic until a decade later? Huh
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« Reply #65 on: February 03, 2007, 04:01:56 pm »
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What, again (I think I read the explanation before, but forgot) is the reason why Ireland has had Presidents since 1938 but didn't become a Republic until a decade later? Huh

Iirc the Presidency was originally a replacement for the position of governor general - the stand in for the British Monarch in Ireland and a position De Valera abolished under the 1937 constitution (it had been one of the original demands of the Anglo-Irish treaty).
Unsurprisingly Arch-Nationalist and Irish language enthuaist (putting it mildly) Douglas Hyde was chosen by both main parties to become the next president without even an election or any real opposition.
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Keith R Laws ‏@Keith_Laws  Feb 4
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« Reply #66 on: February 03, 2007, 07:04:16 pm »
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What, again (I think I read the explanation before, but forgot) is the reason why Ireland has had Presidents since 1938 but didn't become a Republic until a decade later? Huh

On becoming the Irish Free State in 1922, one of the conditions of 'the Treaty'/Anglo-Irish Agreement 1922, was that a Governor-General be established, as a symbolic representative for the British monarch - we were afterall still in the Commonwealth (though the government here would get to choose the GG). The main purpose of the position was to sign bills into law.

In 1932, deValera and FF came to power and becan deconstructing the Treaty. In 1935,during the British abdication crisis, the Dál met to alter the relationship of the King with the irish state, while no monarch actually held the throne. Acts were passed which reduced the powers of the King to signing Letters of Credence accrediting Irish ambassadors to other states and signing international treaties on Ireland's behalf. They also effectively removed the role of the Governor-General. In 1937, a new Constitution was drafted and passed. It, among many other things, created the office of President and renamed the state Ireland.  The document made Ireland a republic in all but name - Article 6, for example, declares Ireland to be a sovereign, independent, democratic state. No mention is contained therein of Britain or the British monarch. The office of President was established and took over the job of signing bills into law and moved into the residence that was held by the Governor General.

Ireland remained in the Commonwealth and the British monarch's roles under the 1935 Act remained.

According to deValera, the reason why it didn't explicitly declare us to be a republic was so as to not further the divide with the North.

In 1949, the Republic of Ireland Act was passed declaring the term 'Republic of Ireland' as a description of the state. Following the passage of the Act, Ireland left the Commonwealth and the British monarch lost any role in Irish affairs. The reason that the government decided to declare a republic was that the then Taoiseach John Costello, was apparantly embarrassed when on a state visit to Canada, Costello got in a tizzy over being asked about our position in the Commonwealth and relationship with the King - and unilaterally decided to declare that Ireland was to become a republic, to the surprise of the British government, the Irish people and his own cabinet.
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« Reply #67 on: February 03, 2007, 07:37:12 pm »
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Fine Gael have also been far more anglophilic than Fianna Fail, though this is really more a quality in the past.
Quite true.

The Original divide if anything was between slightly Anglophilic conservative free-trade businessmen and big farmers (FG) and Agriarian nationalists with urban working class support (FF) - though even that was a generalization, and of course is nowhere near true anymore. Though certain groups like those are still more likely to vote for one party over the other.
Yep, agree with this also.

According to Michael Gallagher's research, nowadays the single biggest factor affecting how one votes here is how one's parents vote. And at least anecdotally, that appears to be quite true to me.
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« Reply #68 on: February 03, 2007, 07:49:20 pm »
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Fine Gael have also been far more anglophilic than Fianna Fail, though this is really more a quality in the past.
Quite true.

The Original divide if anything was between slightly Anglophilic conservative free-trade businessmen and big farmers (FG) and Agriarian nationalists with urban working class support (FF) - though even that was a generalization, and of course is nowhere near true anymore. Though certain groups like those are still more likely to vote for one party over the other.
Yep, agree with this also.

According to Michael Gallagher's research, nowadays the single biggest factor affecting how one votes here is how one's parents vote. And at least anecdotally, that appears to be quite true to me.

I would not be surprised by that one bit - which proves how 'liberal' our democratic culture really is - especially given that our politics was never based on class or something else which could explain that fact away. Internet link to that research (or at least a portion or something similiar)?
 
I'm mainly curious to see the geography - my prediction (not too difficult) is that the number of voters who vote differently from their parents is dramatically increased inside Dublin as opposed to the rest of the country.
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Keith R Laws ‏@Keith_Laws  Feb 4
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« Reply #69 on: February 03, 2007, 08:02:23 pm »
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Internet link to that research (or at least a portion or something similiar)?

Don't know of any online source. I recall it from 1st year lectures in Politics - a text for which included Politics in the Republic of Ireland by Coakley and Gallagher. Actually, now that I mention it I'm not certain that it was necessarily Gallagher's research that came to the conclusion or Brendan Walsh's.
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« Reply #70 on: February 05, 2007, 08:21:11 am »
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I'm well aware of the (rather rude) joke, but what is the actual difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael?

Now I'm curious as to what that joke is.

I think it's that the difference between the two parties is the difference between sh*t and sh*te, perhaps a reference to Fine Gael's or its predecessor party's original pro-concilliation policy vis-a-vis Great Britain, where people seem to call sh*t "sh*te".
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« Reply #71 on: February 05, 2007, 01:57:20 pm »
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Dublin: Part III

Dublin South East (4)

Prediction:
Gormley, John (GP)* - Safe
Andrews, Chris (FF) - Lean FF
Creighton, Lucinda (FG) - Tossup
McDowell, Michael (PD)* - Tossup

EDIT (22 May)
There should be a FF seat here, but with the retirement of the incumbent Ryan, I'm really only guessing which of the 2 FF are running should take it. (This is one of only a handful of constituencies where no FF TD is a possibility, if an outside one.) Gormley should be safe and will probably jump 2 spots on last time to top the poll.

For the final 2 seats, there are 3 contenders. Minister for Justice and PD leader, Michael McDowell; Former Labour leader and former Minister for Finance Ruarí Quinn; and FG newcomer, Lucinda Creighton (who has one of those permatans taht remind me of Kilroy-Silk *shudder*).

Very hard to say. While Quinn should do best on getting transfers, I worry that he may be to far behind on first preferences to catch up to teo people I'd rather not see in the Dáil.

Current: 1 GP; 1 FF; 1 PD; 1 Lab
Prediction: 1 GP; 1 FF; 1 PD; 1 FG
Change: FG +1; Lab -1

Dublin South West (4)

Prediction:
Crowe, Seán (SF)* - Safe
Rabbitte, Pat (Lab)* - Lean
O'Connor, Charlie (FF)* - Safe FF
Hayes, Brian (FG) - Tossup

EDIT (9 May)
Local hospital issues should eat into the FF vote. Brian Hayes (FG) would be the favourite to pick up on FF slipage - but he has a tough task ahead of him - even though the FF incumbent pairing are probably two of the least competent around. predicting Conor Lenihan (FF) to lose out - probably the biggest name that I'm predicting to do so.

Current: 2 FF; 1 SF; 1 Lab
Prediction: 1 FF; 1 FG; 1 SF; 1 Lab
Change: FF -1; FG +1

Dublin West (3)

Prediction:
Lenihan, Brian (FF)* - Safe
Higgins, Joe (Soc)* - Lean
Burton, Joan (Lab)* - Tossup

Lenihan is safe and I'd be surprised if Higgins lost out.  For the final seat then it's between Joan Burton (Lab) and Leo Varadkar (FG). I think Burton has the advantage in a constituency with a strong working class leftist vote. She should outdo FG on transfers from the Greens and SF - and Higgins, if there is any.

Current: 1 FF; 1 Soc; 1 Lab
Prediction: 1 FF; 1 Soc; 1 Lab
Change: None

Dún Laoighaire (5)

Prediction:
Hanafin, Mary (FF)* - Safe
Gilmore, Eamon (Lab)* - Safe
Cuffe, Ciaran (GP)* - Lean
Bailey, John (FG) - Tossup
Andrews, Barry (FF)* - Tossup

EDIT (22 May)
The two incumbent seats in danger here are Andrews (FF) and O'Malley (PD). Also in contention for the seats are a couple of FG candidates and Oisin Quinn (Lab). Predicting Bailey (FG) to unseat O'Malley (PD).

Current: 2 FF; 1 Lab; 1 GP; 1 PD
Prediction: 2 FF; 1 FG; 1 Lab; 1 GP
Change: FG +1; PD -1

Dublin Prediction Overall
Current: 21 FF; 3 FG; 9 Lab; 4 PD; 5 GP; 2 SF; 1 Soc; 2 Ind
Prediction: 16 FF; 7 FG; 8 Lab; 3 PD; 5 GP; 5 SF; 2 Soc; 1 Ind
Change: FF -5; FG +4; Lab -1; PD -1; SF +3; Soc +1; Ind -1
« Last Edit: May 22, 2007, 06:49:12 pm by Jas »Logged

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« Reply #72 on: February 05, 2007, 02:48:13 pm »
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Jas, You probably know more about trends and polls, etc than I do right now, but I severly doubt that Fine Gael will do even worse in Dublin than they did in 2002, you have them level with "Red Joe's" party for christ sake!

As for Dublin South, Right now I'm not too sure for your assessement. Yes, Brennan, Kitt and Mitchell are almost certainly safe but Ryan and O'Donnell are very much on risky terriority. But you're right in regards to Labour shooting themselves in the foot in regards to running two candidates (Strangely so are Sinn Fein, unusual given that this is probably the least-SF friendly constituency in the country.) - still right now from the recent poll the most-awaited PD collapse seems to be coming. So I'd predict that Culihan (Labour; probably the better placed of the two candidates) will unseat O'Donnell. Ryan will remain. Though Alan Shatter is always a possibility, but he will probably fall short again, unfortunate given that I quite like him actually.

Jas, You're registered in.. Cavan\Monaghan, am I correct?
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« Reply #73 on: February 05, 2007, 03:01:27 pm »
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So, Jas Using your overall results we get:

FF: 72
FG: 36
Lab: 24
GP: 7
SF: 7
PD: 5
Soc: 2
Ind: 9

Gridlock ahoy!

But honestly, I think you have Labour and the PD's too high and FG + Greens too low. The rest look somewhat accurate.

EDIT: I forgot to mention but your Entry for Mayo isn't entirely clear whether there would be 2FF's seats or not. I counted 1FF and 2IND, just to let you know.
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« Reply #74 on: February 06, 2007, 05:57:51 am »
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Ulster Prediction Overall
Current: 7 FF; 2 FG; 1 SF; 1 Ind
Prediciton: 6 FF; 2 FG; 3 SF;
Change: FF -1; SF +2; Ind -1

Connaught Prediction Overall
Current: 8 FF; 6 FG; 1 Lab; 1 PD; 4 Ind
Prediction: 8 FF; 9 FG; 1 Lab; 1 GP; 1 Ind
Change: FG +3; PD -1; GP +1; Ind -3

Cork Prediction Overall
Current: 12 FF;  5 FG; 2 Lab; 1 GP   
Prediction: 9 FF; 7 FG; 2 Lab; 1 GP
Change: FF -3; FG +2

Munster Predicition Overall (Excluding Cork)
Current: 12 FF; 6 FG; 3 Lab; 1 PD; 1 SF; 5 Ind
Prediction: 12 FF; 9 FG; 3 Lab; 1 SF; 3 Ind
Change: FG +3; PD -1; Ind -2

Leinster Prediction Overall (excluding Dublin)
Current: 19 FF; 10 FG; 6 Lab; 2 PD; 1 SF; 2 Ind
Prediction: 17 FF; 13 FG; 7 Lab; 2 GP; 1 SF; 1 Ind
Change: FF -2; FG +3; Lab +1; PD -2; GP +2; Ind -1

Dublin Prediction Overall
Current: 21 FF; 3 FG; 9 Lab; 4 PD; 5 GP; 2 SF; 1 Soc; 2 Ind
Prediction: 16 FF; 7 FG; 8 Lab; 3 PD; 5 GP; 5 SF; 2 Soc; 1 Ind
Change: FF -5; FG +4; Lab -1; PD -1; SF +3; Soc +1; Ind -1


Ireland Prediction Overall
Current: FF 79; FG 32; Lab 21; PD 8; GP 6; SF 5; Soc 1; Ind 14
Prediction: FF 68; FG 47; Lab 21; PD 3; GP 9; SF 10; Soc 2; Ind 6
Change: FF -11; FG +15; Lab 0; PD -5; GP +3; SF +5; Soc +1; Ind -8
« Last Edit: May 22, 2007, 07:09:12 pm by Jas »Logged

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