Ireland Election 2007

[Јas]

No first counts yet for Donegal NE, Dublin NW, Dublin SC, Laois-Offaly, and Wicklow.

My prediction for Wicklow is now shamefully inaccurate - so it might be better if that never comes in.

Dublin Mid-West, SW, W, and Limerick W complete.

Dublin Mid-West:
1 FF, 1 Green, 1 PD, 1 Labour
Dublin SW:
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Dublin W:
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Limerick W:
2 FF, 1 FG

Comparing these with Jas' predictions:
Dublin MW is correct, although Tuffy is wrongly listed as an FG candidate at the top of the post (but correctly as Labour lower down - I suspect Jas changed his call from FG to Labour there at one point, and was right in doing so. It was close between those two.)

Mmmm... Yeah silly rushed error on my part.
Looks like Tuffy may be the only Labour gain this election *sigh*.

Dublin SW is false. Lenihan was easily elected on the first count, it was his running mate who struggled, but he too pulled through in the end. SF's Sean Crowe lost his seat. Brian Hayes (FG) found election easier than Jas predicted, as well.

Shocking stuff here. SF losing a seat! It just doesn't happen. Certainly not to FG. Hayes got an amazing result.

Shame about Jas being proved wrong in Dublin West.

True. Whatever about his politics, Higgins was a great asset to the Dáil, if for nothing else but his taunting of the government at every opportunity.

Limerick W is correct as far as persons elected go, tho' the closest race was between the two FG candidates rather than between the second FF and the second FG guy.

I'll take it... in the end it may be one of few correct calls.

Overall, not a great day for my predictions
In the end it seems that the undecideds broke massively for FF.
Back to the drawing board for me I'm afraid.

[Јas]

Michael McDowell (PD-Dublin SE) has been eliminated.

Don't know if a sitting Tánaiste (Dep. PM) has ever failed to get re-elected.
He has announced that it is the end of his involvement in political life.

[Јas]

42/43 1st Counts in.

Recounts underway in Kerry South and Tipperary South.

Also, Enda Kenny (FG leader-Mayo) is the new Father of the Dáil.

[minionofmidas]

Laois-Offaly is the only 1st count still missing. There's more completed constituencies now (comparisons with Jas to be edited in):

Cork NW
2 FF, 1 FG
Correct call, including on which FF man loses out.

Dublin SE
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour, 1 Green
Jas was too pessimistic on Labour's chances here. Quinn held on, instead PD leader McDowell went out. Correct on which new FF face was elected, correct on the FG pickup. Wrong on Gormley (Green)'s vote; Jas expected him to top the poll but in fact he was the last declared winner.

Kerry N
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF
Labour didn't get as close as Jas hoped, but another perfectly correct call.

Kildare N
2 FF, 1 Labour, 1 FG
Jas predicted i Catherine Murphy to hold on, instead there was a second FF seat.

Kildare S
2 FF, 1 Labour
Correct call.

Sligo - N Leitrim
2 FF, 1 FG
Jas *said* this one was hard (although he seems to have thought 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF more likely than 2 FF, 1 FG). Although as it turns out Scanlon, not Devins, was the safe FF candidate. Devins narrowly beat Comiskey (FG) whom Jas put ahead.

Tipperary S
2 FF, 1 FG
D Mansergh (FF)'s lead, after redistribution of surpluses, is just 59 votes, and he's not listed as elected at RTE Aertel (which I'm using). I suppose there's a recount going on?
A near miss - Jas noticed that Healy (i) was in trouble. Of course, if the recount overturns things (doubtful), he'll turn out right in the end.

Just coming in...

Recounts underway in Kerry South and Tipperary South.

That answers that question.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Longest-sitting TD? He looks pretty young for that...

[Јas]

Just coming in...

Also, Enda Kenny (FG leader-Mayo) is the new Father of the Dáil.

Longest-sitting TD? He looks pretty young for that...

53 years old. First elected in a by-election in 1975 - so that's 30 years now.
Though 5 years ago, Mr. Kenny was almost out of the Dáil - he had even penned a resignation speech during the count, before a surprise comeback.

The previous Father of the House was Seamas Pattison (Lab-Carlow/Kilkenny) who was first elected in 1960.

[Harry Hayfield]

29/43 announced FPV (as on Election Ireland)

Fianna Fail: 551,938 (41.20% -0.31%)
Fine Gael: 369,059 (27.55% +5.06%)
Labour: 135,609 (10.12% -0.66%)
Progressive Democrats: 38,166 (2.85% -1.12%)
Green: 72,918 (5.44% +1.59%)
Sinn Fein: 91,257 (6.81% +0.29%)
Independents: 55,798 (4.16% -5.33%)
Socialists: 13,230 (0.99% +0.19%)
Others: 11,718 (0.87% +0.28%)
Swing from FF to FG: 2.69%

Constituencies "won": FF 27 (-2) FG 2 (+2)

6 completed counts (as of Election Ireland)
Cavan Monaghan: FF 3, FG 1, SF 1
Dublin Mid West: FF 1, Lab 1, PD 1, Green 1
Dublin South West: FF 2, FG 1, Lab 1
Dublin West: FF 1, FG 1, Lab 1
Kildare South: FF 2, Lab 1
Sligo, Leitrim North: FF 2, FG 1
Totals: FF 11, FG 4, Lab 4, PD 1, Green 1, SF 1

[Verily]

Except for Laois-Offaly, I've finished a map of the winners on the first vote and percentages in each constituency. FG won Mayo, Kerry North and Roscommon-South Leitrim, Independents topped the poll in Tipperary North and FF led everywhere else.

Unfortunate, imageshack is down right now. Maybe I'll work on maps by party in the meantime.

[Јas]

Looking at the numbers, I'd estimate the results to end up somthing like as follows:

(Probable range)
FF: 77 (73-80)
FG: 52 (49-56)
Lab: 20 (19-21)
PD: 2 (2)
Green: 6 (4-7)
SF: 4 (3-5)
Others: 5 (3-8)

The probable Independents being:
Ex-FF - probably very amenable to a deal with FF
Jackie Healy-Rae (Ind-Kerry S)
Beverley Flynn (Ind-Mayo)

Probably would do a deal with either side for certain demands
Tony Gregory (Ind-Dub C)
Finnian McGrath (Ind-Dub NC)

ex-FG - effectively another FG vote
Michael Lowry (Ind-Tipp N)


The other possibles:
James Breen (Ind-Clare) [ex-FF; favourable to FF]

Seamas Healy (Ind-Tipp S) [Leftist; certainly not favourable to FF - might consider the other bloc in the right circumstances]

Richard Boyd-Barrett (People Before Profit-Dun Laoighaire) [Probably hostile to both blocs]

[Јas]

1st Count in from Laois-Offaly.
All 43 First Counts now in.

Actual Current Returns
[Party - Seats - Share of the Vote - Change in Share on 2002]
FF 54 (41.6%; +0.1)
FG 25 (27.3%; +4.8 )
Lab 10 (10.1%; -0.6)
PD 1 (2.7%; -1.2)
Green 3 (4.7%; +0.8 )
SF 2 (6.9%; +0.4)
Other 2 (6.6%; -4.3)

[minionofmidas]

New seats in:
Cork SW
2 FG, 1 FF
Correct on party headline figures, wrong on which FF man went down.

Dublin S
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Green
Should have gone with "most people now". O'Donnell (PD) wasn't even the runner-up; another FF candidate was. (And a well outdistanced runner-up at that.)

Kerry S
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 i
"the sitting oddity that is Independent ex-FF TD Jackie Healy-Rae" pulled through after all, and the closest competition came from FF rather than Labour. Correct on the FG pickup.

Meath W
2 FF, 1 FG
Correct call, seems to have been a relatively easy one though.

Roscommon - S Leitrim
2 FG, 1 FF
False. Feighan (FG) did better than Jas expected here (and better than his running mate), and being from Leitrim was not enough for Ellis (FF).

Wexford
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour
Correct on the party headline figures, but Jas' should have gone with his hunch that Twomey (...) "could be unseated by fellow party members". Didn't even get all that close to getting back in.

No word out on the Tipperary recount.

[minionofmidas]

Edited to show comparison with the exit poll:

Actual Current Returns
[Party - Seats - Share of the Vote - Change in Share on 2002 - Change on exit poll]
FF 54 (41.6%; +0.1; 0)
FG 25 (27.3%; +4.8; +1.0)
Lab 10 (10.1%; -0.6; +0.2)
PD 1 (2.7%; -1.2; +0.1)
Green 3 (4.7%; +0.8; -0.1)
SF 2 (6.9%; +0.4; -0.4)
Other 2 (6.6%; -4.3; -0.9)

[Јas]

Edited to show comparison with the exit poll:

Actual Current Returns
[Party - Seats - Share of the Vote - Change in Share on 2002 - Change on exit poll]
FF 54 (41.6%; +0.1; 0)
FG 25 (27.3%; +4.8; +1.0)
Lab 10 (10.1%; -0.6; +0.2)
PD 1 (2.7%; -1.2; +0.1)
Green 3 (4.7%; +0.8; -0.1)
SF 2 (6.9%; +0.4; -0.4)
Other 2 (6.6%; -4.3; -0.9)

Remarkably accurate again by RTÉ/Lansdowne.

[Јas]

Cork NW
2 FF, 1 FG
Correct call, including on which FF man loses out.

Dublin SE
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour, 1 Green
Jas was too pessimistic on Labour's chances here. Quinn held on, instead PD leader McDowell went out. Correct on which new FF face was elected, correct on the FG pickup. Wrong on Gormley (Green)'s vote; Jas expected him to top the poll but in fact he was the last declared winner.

Yep, Quinn massively improved on 2002. Gormley has said that recent polls showing Labour difficulty caused a serious swing against him.

Kerry N
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF
Labour didn't get as close as Jas hoped, but another perfectly correct call.

O'Brien should've done better, but given the nationwide Labour performance it was ok-ish.

Kildare N
2 FF, 1 Labour, 1 FG
Jas predicted i Catherine Murphy to hold on, instead there was a second FF seat.

Figured Murphy as a recent enough addition (By-election 2004, IIRC) should have maintained enough support to get one of four seats. Oh, well...

Kildare S
2 FF, 1 Labour
Correct call.

Sligo - N Leitrim
2 FF, 1 FG
Jas *said* this one was hard (although he seems to have thought 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF more likely than 2 FF, 1 FG). Although as it turns out Scanlon, not Devins, was the safe FF candidate. Devins narrowly beat Comiskey (FG) whom Jas put ahead.

MacManus caught in the nationwide SF difficulties. Also another constituency were I simply underestimated FF. (I was really figuring them for about 37% nationally.)

Tipperary S
2 FF, 1 FG
D Mansergh (FF)'s lead, after redistribution of surpluses, is just 59 votes, and he's not listed as elected at RTE Aertel (which I'm using). I suppose there's a recount going on?
A near miss - Jas noticed that Healy (i) was in trouble. Of course, if the recount overturns things (doubtful), he'll turn out right in the end.

Yeah, unlikely the recount will save me here.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Some results coming now show the Prime Minister Bertie Ahern's party is in front at this stage.

[Јas]

Cork SW
2 FG, 1 FF
Correct on party headline figures, wrong on which FF man went down.

Good enough. Quite surprised in the gap between the FF candidates actually.

Dublin S
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Green
Should have gone with "most people now". O'Donnell (PD) wasn't even the runner-up; another FF candidate was. (And a well outdistanced runner-up at that.)

Should've. I've always liked O'Donnell though - probably let my biases get the better of me there.

Kerry S
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 i
"the sitting oddity that is Independent ex-FF TD Jackie Healy-Rae" pulled through after all, and the closest competition came from FF rather than Labour. Correct on the FG pickup.

Happy to call the FG gain there. Wasn't widely foreseen. Other than that...best ignored.

Meath W
2 FF, 1 FG
Correct call, seems to have been a relatively easy one though.

;p

Roscommon - S Leitrim
2 FG, 1 FF
False. Feighan (FG) did better than Jas expected here (and better than his running mate), and being from Leitrim was not enough for Ellis (FF).

*willfully ignores*

Wexford
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour
Correct on the party headline figures, but Jas' should have gone with his hunch that Twomey (...) "could be unseated by fellow party members". Didn't even get all that close to getting back in.

Yeah, surprised by the degree of Twomey's collapse.
Nonetheless I'll take whatever correct calls I made.

[Democratic Hawk]

Is it normal under STV for FF - as the largest party in terms of votes - to fair better in terms of seats in the early to mid-counts, but for FG and Labour to pick-up more seats in the later counts?

It's just that FF seem to have many more seats in proportion to its 41.6% share of the vote as of now

Dave

[Јas]

Is it normal under STV for FF - as the largest party in terms of votes - to fair better in terms of seats in the early to mid-counts, but for FG and Labour to pick-up more seats in the later counts?

It's just that FF seem to have many more seats in proportion to its 41.6% share of the vote as of now

Dave

As the largest party with a relatively even spread of its vote nationwide, FF will usually get the earliest candidates elected.

The smaller parties are obviously working with much smaller vote shares and are usually not in a position to have a quota after count 1, being dependent on transfers which means that it takes longer for them to get elected.

[Јas]

Kerry South recount done. No change.

Tipperary South recount continuing.

[Јas]

Seat Total Update

FF 60
FG 32
Lab 11
Green 3
SF 3
PD 1
Ind 3

113/166 seats declared

[Јas]

Update

Party: Current Seat Total (My current estimate for final result)
FF 66 (78)
FG 37 (50)
Lab 14 (20)
Green 4 (6)
SF 3 (4)
PD 1 (2)
Ind 4 (6)

129/166 seats declared

[Јas]

Update

FF 67
FG 40
Lab 16
Grn 5
SF 3
PD 1
Ind 4

136/166 Declared.

Most counts have now been suspended for the night and will resume again tomorrow morning.

[nemesis2004]

Update prediction at 4.00 am...

think it'll be:

FF   78
FG  51
LAB 20
PD   2
GP   6
SF   4
OTH 5

A lot depending on counts in Dublin South Central, Dublin North East for final figures. Bad night for LAB and SF..calamitous for PD!!!!

Yet as Garret Fitzgerald said on RTE Radio, if Kenny did so bad in the debate how come FG gained 20 seats???.....strange


And the outcome? Watch for Rabbitte to exit stage left and Labour to look to go in with FF unless Greens can give them a better deal. If FF can tie down Labour(old men in a hurry now, all realising that their generation may not see ministerial mercedes again), then they cannot present themselves as part of a rainbow alternative next time round....

And watch for Bertie to slip away at a time of HIS choosing within 3 years. No Blair he! But then Cowen is no Gordon B

[Verily]

This election has completely destroyed the PDs. Losing six of their 8 TDs has to hurt, but the PDs also have the problem of no longer having popular incumbents. I really can't see the PDs returning in most of the constituencies they lost; they were much like the UK Liberals in the 1960s: a few high-profile candidates with few real ideological connections winning on local campaigns and name recognition rather than their party. Losing so many TDs is also a loss of a lot of that essential name recognition.

We shall see if Mary Harney can pull the PDs back together, but I doubt it. It's beginning to look as if this wipeout would have happened in 2002 but for the "FF Majority!" scare tactic.

[minionofmidas]

Is it, like, quite 100% assured that Ahern will still be PM on these results? I'm beginning to wonder actually.

[minionofmidas]

Update on results vs Jas' predictions. Now in Jas' original order.

Cavan-Monaghan
3 FF because of antidemocratic speakership rules, 1 SF, 1 FG
False. Seems like being from Cavan was not enough for Joe O'Reilly (FG). FF squeaked in instead.
This would have gone 2-2-1 if all five seats had been up for election, beyond a sliver of a doubt.

Donegal NE
2 FF, 1 FG.
FG much stronger than Jas expected here, with SF missing out on a gain. Also had the wrong FFer losing out. FF infighting didn't leave this one all that far off a perfect storm single-FF-elected result. Of course this was ultra-hard to predict.
You really, really should let 6-seat counties be a single seat. 3-seaters distort results too much.

Donegal SW
2 FF, 1 FG.
Again, close call between FG and SF with a weird outside possibility of 1-1-1. Again, SF lose out where Jas predicted FG to do so.

Galway E
2 FG, 2 FF.
Perfect prediction, though McHugh got slaughtered.

Galway W
2 FF, 1 Labour, 1 FG, 1 PD
Predicted a Green gain from PDs, otherwise correct.

Mayo
3 FG, 1 FF, 1 i
Correct on party headlines, wrong on which FG candidate lost out (but correct on which two were in contention for that).

Roscommon - Leitrim S
2 FG, 1 FF
False. Feighan (FG) did better than Jas expected here (and better than his running mate), and being from Leitrim was not enough for Ellis (FF).

Sligo - Leitrim N
2 FF, 1 FG
Jas *said* this one was hard (although he seems to have thought 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF more likely than 2 FF, 1 FG). Although as it turns out Scanlon, not Devins, was the safe FF candidate. Devins narrowly beat Comiskey (FG) whom Jas put ahead.

Cork E
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Perfect call.

Cork NC
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Perfect call.

Cork NW
2 FF, 1 FG
Correct call, including on which FF man loses out.

Cork SC
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour
Jas didn't see the Green seat loss here (and thus had to pick between an FG gain and a Labour gain, where both happened in the end). Can't blame him. Also wrong on which FFer lost out, though, but again, can't really blame him.

Cork SW
2 FG, 1 FF
Correct on party headline figures, wrong on which FF man went down.

Clare
2 FF, 2 FG
James Breen lost narrowly, to FG as Jas thought possible (but didn't predict). The bit about Green outside chances though... (shakes head)

Kerry N
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF
Correct call, though O'Brien never stood a chance.

Kerry S
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 i
"the sitting oddity that is Independent ex-FF TD Jackie Healy-Rae" pulled through after all, and the closest competition came from FF rather than Labour. Correct on the FG pickup.

Limerick E
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour
Perfect call that Jas called "bold". Congrats.

Limerick W
2 FF, 1 FG
Correct call. (Though it was closer between the two FG men than between FF and FG).

Tipperary N
1 i, 1 FG, 1 FF
Correct call.

Tipperary S
2 FF, 1 FG
A near miss - Jas noticed that Healy (i) was in trouble.

Waterford
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Another good call.

Carlow - Kilkenny
3 FF, 1 FG, 1 Green
Classic case of underestimating FF staying power. Correct on the Green gain from Labour.

Kildare N
2 FF, 1 Labour, 1 FG
Jas predicted i Catherine Murphy to hold on, instead there was a second FF seat.

Kildare S
2 FF, 1 Labour
Correct call.

Laois - Offaly
3 FF, 2 FG
Perfect as usual.

Longford - Westmeath
2 FF, 1 Labour, 1 FG
Perfect call on a new constituency. Well done, man.

Louth
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
Woefully underestimating Seamas Kirk, who beat everybody. McGuiness did come close, but the loser would have been SF.

Meath E
2 FF, 1 FG
Byrne (FF) got in instead of Hannigan (L). See what I said about 6-seaters. Ahern's government may well be saved by the Donegal and Meath constituency splits alone, which basically net FF one completely undeserved seat each at the expense of SF & Labour.

Meath W
2 FF, 1 FG
Correct call, seems to have been a relatively easy one though.

Wexford
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour
Correct on the party headline figures, but Jas' should have gone with his hunch that Twomey (...) "could be unseated by fellow party members". Didn't even get all that close to getting back in.

Wicklow
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour
No comment. -_-

Dublin C
2 FF, 1 i, 1 Labour
Pretty bad call here; Jas seems not to have seen the 2nd FF hold at all. Mind you, Brady got in on less than a thousand first preferences. SF not even runners up (but fairly strong for that.)

Dublin MW
1 FF, 1 Green, 1 PD, 1 Labour
correct, although Tuffy is wrongly listed as an FG candidate at the top of the post (but correctly as Labour lower down - I suspect Jas changed his call from FG to Labour there at one point, and was right in doing so. It was close between those two.)

Dublin N
2 FF, 1 Green, 1 FG
Correct on the FG pickup from Labour, way too optimistic on Daly.

Dublin NC
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 i
Should have stuck with his original prediction here.

Dublin NE
1 Labour, 1 FG, 1 FF
Near miss. Correct on the FF loss, and on which FF guy went down. Saw the battle for the pickup as a tossup and plumped for the wrong party (SF instead of FG).

Dublin NW
2 FF, 1 Labour
Another case of overestimating SF and underestimating FF, but he said it was close (tho' he didn't call it a tossup.)

Dublin S
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Green
Should have gone with "most people now". O'Donnell (PD) wasn't even the runner-up; another FF candidate was. (And a well outdistanced runner-up at that.)

Dublin SC
2 FF, 1 Labour, 1 FG, 1 SF
Correct call, though Ó Snodaigh really struggled there at the end.

Dublin SE
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour, 1 Green
Jas was too pessimistic on Labour's chances here. Quinn held on, instead PD leader McDowell went out. Correct on which new FF face was elected, correct on the FG pickup. Wrong on Gormley (Green)'s vote; Jas expected him to top the poll but in fact he was the last declared winner.

Dublin SW
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
false. Lenihan was easily elected on the first count, it was his running mate who struggled, but he too pulled through in the end. SF's Sean Crowe lost his seat. Brian Hayes (FG) found election easier than Jas predicted, as well.

Dublin W
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Shame about Jas being proved wrong here.

Dún Laoghaire
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour, 1 Green
Correct on party headlines, wrong on who got in for FG. Good enough, I suppose.