Ireland Election 2007
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #200 on: May 26, 2007, 02:52:58 PM »

Some long term analysis...

Fianna Fáil
Gen. Election: % First Preferences; Seats
1992: 39.1; 68
1997: 39.3; 77
2002: 41.5; 81
2007: 41.6; 78

Fine Gael
Gen. Election: % First Preferences; Seats
1992: 24.5; 45
1997: 27.9; 54
2002: 22.5; 31
2007: 27.3; 51

Labour
Gen. Election: % First Preferences; Seats
1992: 19.3; 33
1997: 10.4; 17
2002: 10.8; 21
2007: 10.1; 20

Green
Gen. Election: % First Preferences; Seats
1992: 1.4; 1
1997: 2.8; 2
2002: 3.8; 6
2007: 4.7; 6

Sinn Féin
Gen. Election: % First Preferences; Seats
1992: 1.6; 0
1997: 2.5; 1
2002: 6.5; 5
2007: 6.9; 4

Progressive Democrats
Gen. Election: % First Preferences; Seats
1992: 4.7; 10
1997: 4.7; 4
2002: 4.0; 8
2007: 2.7; 2
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #201 on: May 26, 2007, 03:17:46 PM »

New counts in Dublin North and Laois-Offaly return Daragh O'Brien (FF) and Olwyn Enright (FG) respectively, and as expected.

There seems to be another mess going on in Dublin N where they've had to revise the quota based on a change in the number of spoiled ballots in the last recount. It shouldn't matter a great deal in the scheme of things.



Enright's return means that we now have a husband and wife team in the Dáil. Ms Enright (FG-Laois/Offaly) is married to newly incoming TD Joe McHugh (FG-Donegal NE).

Possibly more unusual than that, there will now be 3 siblings in the Dáil. Tom, Michael and Áine Kitt have all been elected for FF in Dublin S; Galway E; and Kildare S respectively. Áine is the newcomer to the Kitt dynasty, which began with their father's entry to the Dáil in 1948.

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nemesis2004
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« Reply #202 on: May 26, 2007, 03:47:42 PM »

Greetings all. Those of you based in Ireland may have noticed-as I have, and I've been following politics and elections here since '77...no kidding-that the TV coverage once again was well below the quality of radio coverage. Some counts were tlevised and shown several minutes afterwards and some vital counts missed while silly clumsy interviews with Joe Mchugh+ Olwyn Enright, for example were being shown....not impressed.

Further to what I mentioned about Bertie going at a time of his choosing, I noticed Vincent Browne last night talk about Ahern's desire to see through the full term and the point he made was very valid. It's not REALLY plausible for Ahern to serve a full term and then hand over to a successor. He said he would have to give a prospective new FF leader at least a year, possibly more to get ready and put their stamp on a new adminsitration, ready for election...so he can't really stay till 2012. Expect the speculation to start within 18 months as to when he'll go-which is why i suggested he will end up having to decide himself but within 3 years.

as to a likely combination? I've been mulling this over all day(thought Saturdays were for recreation-well, now that the football season is over we can't do that) and have figured that yes, the idea of a deal with the Greens backed up by Bev, Healy-rae and Gregory sounds most plausible. hard to know. I just can't see the PDs figuring. The idea of a party so utterly rejected by the electorate going back into a Coalition arrangement doesn't make sense. Has happened before though....

As regards what I said about Labour being old men in a hurry? Heard that being said to me by several political scientists last night. Body language from likes of Howlin indicated that they had seen alliance rejected and as if to add "You're on your own now Enda..."

We shall see. It will once again be a fascinating post-election shuffle....but the ball is very much in Bertie's court.
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #203 on: May 26, 2007, 04:15:43 PM »

Greetings all. Those of you based in Ireland may have noticed
So that's myself and Gully (occasionally)

-as I have, and I've been following politics and elections here since '77
Beats me... and most others on the forum. I wasn't to appear until Garret's second term.

...no kidding-that the TV coverage once again was well below the quality of radio coverage. Some counts were tlevised and shown several minutes afterwards and some vital counts missed while silly clumsy interviews with Joe Mchugh+ Olwyn Enright, for example were being shown....not impressed.
That interview was a bit twee alright. I can't really compare the coverage (in fact I missed most of the day due to extenuating circumstances), but I wasn't terribly disappointed by RTÉ's television effort - though that may be because it was about the level I expected. I was listening to RTÉ radio when the TV coverage ended, but that was a lot of Garret saying I told you so... Caught a bit of Newstalk as well, mostly today. Again about expectations, it can't be easy for them to cover the 43 constituencies.

Further to what I mentioned about Bertie going at a time of his choosing, I noticed Vincent Browne last night talk about Ahern's desire to see through the full term and the point he made was very valid. It's not REALLY plausible for Ahern to serve a full term and then hand over to a successor. He said he would have to give a prospective new FF leader at least a year, possibly more to get ready and put their stamp on a new adminsitration, ready for election...so he can't really stay till 2012. Expect the speculation to start within 18 months as to when he'll go-which is why i suggested he will end up having to decide himself but within 3 years.
Actually, while I give credit to Browne for his grillings of Ahern and Rabitte during the campaign, I really didn't think much of his contributions last night...I particularly thought he insistence that FF/Lab was the only option was shortsighted.

I don't actually think that a full term for Bertie is terribly unrealistic. He's long been quite clear on his intention to both (a) serve a full term and (b) continue in politics until the age of 60 - both of which coincide.

If he leaves early, it will either be because he decides himself its time to go or his party decide its time for him to go. I don't see either as particularly likely in the short to medium term of a government. That might change if an incoming Ahern lead government collapsed for some reason or the Mahon tribunal produces something terribly damning about him.

as to a likely combination? I've been mulling this over all day(thought Saturdays were for recreation-well, now that the football season is over we can't do that) and have figured that yes, the idea of a deal with the Greens backed up by Bev, Healy-rae and Gregory sounds most plausible. hard to know. I just can't see the PDs figuring. The idea of a party so utterly rejected by the electorate going back into a Coalition arrangement doesn't make sense. Has happened before though....
Could happen. Who else apart from Harney would take on the Department of Health? It would also mean 2 more votes and so more stability - a word he used mutiple times during his interview last night.
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nemesis2004
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« Reply #204 on: May 26, 2007, 05:09:24 PM »

Sorry Jas but I just couldn't be bothered replying....nothing personal!!!!!

It's just that each time I try to do this it either times out or re-loads and I lose all I've written. Broadband is not making this easy for me to do this...

You've raised good points and we'll chat about this again!
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #205 on: May 26, 2007, 07:34:37 PM »

Final declaration is now in from Laois-Offaly.

Final Result
FF 78 (-3)
FG 51 (+20)
Lab 20 (-1)
Grn 6 (0)
SF 4 (-1)
PD 2 (-6)
Soc 0 (-1)
Ind 5 (-8)
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« Reply #206 on: May 27, 2007, 03:37:41 AM »

So the "big gains" predicted for the Greens and Sinn Fein (and Socialists) did'nt quite happen heh?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #207 on: May 27, 2007, 05:50:22 AM »

So the "big gains" predicted for the Greens and Sinn Fein did'nt quite happen heh?
Smallish vote gains in the wrong places. Maybe just attributable to running everywhere (Greens) / nearly everywhere (SF) - not sure how many candidates they had last time. Also some bad luck results for SF.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #208 on: May 27, 2007, 06:03:21 AM »

Which Celtic nation had a recent similar election to this? Answer: Scotland

What seems to have happened is that Fine Gael has mopped up all the support from the smaller opposition parties (just like the SNP mopped up all the votes it lost to the Greens and the SSP in 2003).

As for possible coalitions, looking at the seats won, the most likely to me is Fianna Fail (77) + Greens (6) + Progressive Democrats (2) = 85 (majority of 4), but given that the Progessive Democrats were hammered, it's just as likely that they may ask the Independents (5) to come on board as well.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #209 on: May 27, 2007, 06:17:12 AM »

Which Celtic nation had a recent similar election to this? Answer: Scotland

What seems to have happened is that Fine Gael has mopped up all the support from the smaller opposition parties (just like the SNP mopped up all the votes it lost to the Greens and the SSP in 2003).

As for possible coalitions, looking at the seats won, the most likely to me is Fianna Fail (77) + Greens (6) + Progressive Democrats (2) = 85 (majority of 4), but given that the Progessive Democrats were hammered, it's just as likely that they may ask the Independents (5) to come on board as well.
The independents aren't a bloc. They're more like, two finndependents (or should that be "faildependents"?), a gaeldependent ("finedependent"?) and two who're most close to being labdependents, but seem to be the most independent of the bunch.

FF (77) + PDs (2) + finndependents (2) + bought-off true independents (2) with a speaker from the opposition is technically enough, but I highly doubt Ahern *really* thinks he can govern on that for five years. He's just using that option for leverage.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #210 on: May 27, 2007, 06:26:54 AM »

I've edited the earlier comments in and added the missing seats...
Update on results vs Jas' predictions. Now in Jas' original order.

Cavan-Monaghan
3 FF because of antidemocratic speakership rules, 1 SF, 1 FG
False. Seems like being from Cavan was not enough for Joe O'Reilly (FG). FF squeaked in instead.
This would have gone 2-2-1 if all five seats had been up for election, beyond a sliver of a doubt.

Donegal NE
2 FF, 1 FG.
FG much stronger than Jas expected here, with SF missing out on a gain. Also had the wrong FFer losing out. FF infighting didn't leave this one all that far off a perfect storm single-FF-elected result. Of course this was ultra-hard to predict.
You really, really should let 6-seat counties be a single seat. 3-seaters distort results too much.

Donegal SW
2 FF, 1 FG.
Again, close call between FG and SF with a weird outside possibility of 1-1-1. Again, SF lose out where Jas predicted FG to do so.

Galway E
2 FG, 2 FF.
Perfect prediction, though McHugh got slaughtered.

Galway W
2 FF, 1 Labour, 1 FG, 1 PD
Predicted a Green gain from PDs, otherwise correct.

Mayo
3 FG, 1 FF, 1 i
Correct on party headlines, wrong on which FG candidate lost out (but correct on which two were in contention for that).

Roscommon - Leitrim S
2 FG, 1 FF
False. Feighan (FG) did better than Jas expected here (and better than his running mate), and being from Leitrim was not enough for Ellis (FF).

Sligo - Leitrim N
2 FF, 1 FG
Jas *said* this one was hard (although he seems to have thought 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF more likely than 2 FF, 1 FG). Although as it turns out Scanlon, not Devins, was the safe FF candidate. Devins narrowly beat Comiskey (FG) whom Jas put ahead.

Cork E
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Perfect call.

Cork NC
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Perfect call.

Cork NW
2 FF, 1 FG
Correct call, including on which FF man loses out.

Cork SC
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour
Jas didn't see the Green seat loss here (and thus had to pick between an FG gain and a Labour gain, where both happened in the end). Can't blame him. Also wrong on which FFer lost out, though, but again, can't really blame him.

Cork SW
2 FG, 1 FF
Correct on party headline figures, wrong on which FF man went down.

Clare
2 FF, 2 FG
James Breen lost narrowly, to FG as Jas thought possible (but didn't predict). The bit about Green outside chances though... (shakes head)

Kerry N
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF
Correct call, though O'Brien never stood a chance.

Kerry S
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 i
"the sitting oddity that is Independent ex-FF TD Jackie Healy-Rae" pulled through after all, and the closest competition came from FF rather than Labour. Correct on the FG pickup.

Limerick E
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour
Perfect call that Jas called "bold". Congrats.

Limerick W
2 FF, 1 FG
Correct call. (Though it was closer between the two FG men than between FF and FG).

Tipperary N
1 i, 1 FG, 1 FF
Correct call.

Tipperary S
2 FF, 1 FG
A near miss - Jas noticed that Healy (i) was in trouble.

Waterford
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Another good call.

Carlow - Kilkenny
3 FF, 1 FG, 1 Green
Classic case of underestimating FF staying power. Correct on the Green gain from Labour.

Kildare N
2 FF, 1 Labour, 1 FG
Jas predicted i Catherine Murphy to hold on, instead there was a second FF seat.

Kildare S
2 FF, 1 Labour
Correct call.

Laois - Offaly
3 FF, 2 FG
Perfect as usual.

Longford - Westmeath
2 FF, 1 Labour, 1 FG
Perfect call on a new constituency. Well done, man.

Louth
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
Woefully underestimating Seamas Kirk, who beat everybody. McGuiness did come close, but the loser would have been SF.

Meath E
2 FF, 1 FG
Byrne (FF) got in instead of Hannigan (L). See what I said about 6-seaters. Ahern's government may well be saved by the Donegal and Meath constituency splits alone, which basically net FF one completely undeserved seat each at the expense of SF & Labour.

Meath W
2 FF, 1 FG
Correct call, seems to have been a relatively easy one though.

Wexford
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour
Correct on the party headline figures, but Jas' should have gone with his hunch that Twomey (...) "could be unseated by fellow party members". Didn't even get all that close to getting back in.

Wicklow
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour
No comment. -_-

Dublin C
2 FF, 1 i, 1 Labour
Pretty bad call here; Jas seems not to have seen the 2nd FF hold at all. Mind you, Brady got in on less than a thousand first preferences. Grin SF not even runners up (but fairly strong for that.)

Dublin MW
1 FF, 1 Green, 1 PD, 1 Labour
correct, although Tuffy is wrongly listed as an FG candidate at the top of the post (but correctly as Labour lower down - I suspect Jas changed his call from FG to Labour there at one point, and was right in doing so. It was close between those two.)

Dublin N
2 FF, 1 Green, 1 FG
Correct on the FG pickup from Labour, way too optimistic on Daly.

Dublin NC
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 i
Should have stuck with his original prediction here.

Dublin NE
1 Labour, 1 FG, 1 FF
Near miss. Correct on the FF loss, and on which FF guy went down. Saw the battle for the pickup as a tossup and plumped for the wrong party (SF instead of FG).

Dublin NW
2 FF, 1 Labour
Another case of overestimating SF and underestimating FF, but he said it was close (tho' he didn't call it a tossup.)

Dublin S
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Green
Should have gone with "most people now". O'Donnell (PD) wasn't even the runner-up; another FF candidate was. (And a well outdistanced runner-up at that.)

Dublin SC
2 FF, 1 Labour, 1 FG, 1 SF
Correct call, though Ó Snodaigh really struggled there at the end.

Dublin SE
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour, 1 Green
Jas was too pessimistic on Labour's chances here. Quinn held on, instead PD leader McDowell went out. Correct on which new FF face was elected, correct on the FG pickup. Wrong on Gormley (Green)'s vote; Jas expected him to top the poll but in fact he was the last declared winner.

Dublin SW
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
false. Lenihan was easily elected on the first count, it was his running mate who struggled, but he too pulled through in the end. SF's Sean Crowe lost his seat. Brian Hayes (FG) found election easier than Jas predicted, as well.

Dublin W
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Shame about Jas being proved wrong here.

Dún Laoghaire
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour, 1 Green
Correct on party headlines, wrong on who got in for FG. Good enough, I suppose. Smiley


19 (15 if you discount wrong winners for the right party) out of 43 ain't bad at all, Jas. Not gigantic, but not bad at all.

Put it another way, and you correctly predicted 135 out of 166 TDs.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #211 on: May 27, 2007, 07:16:34 AM »

Bought Ireland's Sunday Independent this morning (my newsagent had a copy for £1.50). Their front page is saying that the Progressive Democrats are on the verge of disbanding.

On a related topic:
* How do you pronounce Taoiseach?
* What's the Tanaiste?
* Is the Ceann Comhairle like our Speaker?
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #212 on: May 27, 2007, 07:39:07 AM »

Which Celtic nation had a recent similar election to this? Answer: Scotland

What seems to have happened is that Fine Gael has mopped up all the support from the smaller opposition parties (just like the SNP mopped up all the votes it lost to the Greens and the SSP in 2003).

As for possible coalitions, looking at the seats won, the most likely to me is Fianna Fail (77) + Greens (6) + Progressive Democrats (2) = 85 (majority of 4), but given that the Progessive Democrats were hammered, it's just as likely that they may ask the Independents (5) to come on board as well.
The independents aren't a bloc. They're more like, two finndependents (or should that be "faildependents"?), a gaeldependent ("finedependent"?) and two who're most close to being labdependents, but seem to be the most independent of the bunch.

FF (77) + PDs (2) + finndependents (2) + bought-off true independents (2) with a speaker from the opposition is technically enough, but I highly doubt Ahern *really* thinks he can govern on that for five years. He's just using that option for leverage.

Spot on. But the FF/PD/Ind option is a genuine runner - it's exactly how the 1997-2002 government lined up.

I still think that the FF/Green option is the frontrunner, but it seems quite clear that a number of FF deputies would be less than pleased with this.

Aparantly Ahern is meeting with the FF Deputy Leader (and Minister for Finance) Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly) later today to talk things over.



Bought Ireland's Sunday Independent this morning (my newsagent had a copy for £1.50).
*shudder* Beware the Sindo, especially if you're actually looking for news.

Their front page is saying that the Progressive Democrats are on the verge of disbanding.
It's possible, but nobody knows for sure yet. I think they'll stick round though, their 2 votes are still very valuable. Harney could still continue on as Health Minister.

On a related topic:
* How do you pronounce Taoiseach?
"thee-shock"

Well if Taoiseach = PM, Tánaiste = Deputy PM.
Procounced "thaw-nish-ta"

* Is the Ceann Comhairle like our Speaker?
Yep. CC Election will be the first order of business for the Dáil, very unclear who will take it.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #213 on: May 27, 2007, 08:31:17 AM »

Thanks. I've been pronouncing it "Tay-oh-sheck".
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« Reply #214 on: May 27, 2007, 09:58:37 AM »

Any chance still for a FG+Lab+Green government?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #215 on: May 27, 2007, 09:59:36 AM »

Thanks. I've been pronouncing it "Tay-oh-sheck".
I've been pronouncing it "tayshack".
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Verily
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« Reply #216 on: May 27, 2007, 10:20:17 AM »

Any chance still for a FG+Lab+Green government?

Technically possible, but they'd need the PDs and every favorable Independent supporting. Highly unlikely.
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #217 on: May 27, 2007, 10:32:57 AM »

Any chance still for a FG+Lab+Green government?

On their own... No
FG (51) + Lab (20) + Grn (6) = 77

If (somehow) they could convince the PDs (2) and all the independents (5) and got a FF Ceann Comhairle in place, they would have a 84-81 majority.

Convincing the PDs could be difficult, especially if Ahern is willing to put Harney (now the de facto PD leader) back in as Minister for Health - something she clearly wants. The alternative certainly wouldn't offer her that position - as Labour, in particular, are strongly opposed to certain of her policies there.

Also, while I think that in the end, all of the Independents could make a deal with either side - FF have to be seen as having the edge in dealing with them. 2 of the Independents are almost de facto FF TDs, both being former members of the party. Both Healy-Rae and Flynn could probably be relied on as FF votes generally.

Added to that, the next key Independent on the FF target list will be Tony Gregory - who famously did a deal 20 years ago which got very significant investment for his constituency. Gregory's advantage here is that he can demand the sun, moon and stars as it just so happens that his constituency colleague is Bertie Ahern, in Dublin Central. Gregory's long shopping list will be very easy for Ahern to approve and both of them can claim credit for it.

Even Michael Lowry, (Tipperary N) the former FG Minister, who is to FG what Flynn is to FF, has said that he would do a deal with Ahern if the price was right.

Even if FF didn't chase the PD/Inds option, the Greens numbers are just right. They will know that they can wield more power as part of a two party government than a 4 party and then some alternative. More ministers, more junior ministers, more of their policies adopted, more attention in the media, more everything. It will eb hard to turn down.

And failing all else, a FF/Lab coalition, and probably even a FF (with some Independent support) minority government are still more likely than the anybody but FF option.

So, any chance - yes, but it's about a 1 in a 100 shot.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #218 on: May 28, 2007, 05:33:23 AM »

By the way... usind D'Hondt and first preferences:
FF 96
FG 52
Labour 11
SF 2
PD 2
Greens 1
indies 2

And Hare-Niemeyer:
FF 71
FG 49
Labour 25
SF 7
Greens 4
PD 2
indies 8

And just electing the x top vote getters
FF 83
FG 49
Labour 20
SF 4
Greens 3
PD 2
indies 5

While for the above, every indie/other candidate has been treated as a party of his own, in the following they're treated as as it were the Independent Party:

National PR
FF 69-70
FG 45-46
Labour 17
SF 11
Green 7-8
PD 4-5
Indies 11

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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #219 on: May 28, 2007, 10:23:26 AM »

The Independent TD Finian McGrath believes that FF is considering approaching Labour to form a coalition government

McGrath, along with fellow Independents, Tony Gregory and Jackie Healy Rae, have confirmed that FG and Labour have approached them, but FF hasn't

Should Ahern approach either Labour or the Greens to form a coalition government, how well would this go down with either Labour voters or Green voters should either party agree to go into coalition with FF?

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Јas
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« Reply #220 on: May 28, 2007, 10:44:01 AM »

Significant news emerging from the Mahon Tribunal today which could have serious consequences regarding the formation of the next government. The broad outline is given below and the possible political implications at the bottom.

Outline of Allegations
Just to briefly give some background, the Tribunal was set up in 1997 to deal with corruption by politicians largely regarding matters of planning permission and zoning. The tribunal has unearthed very significant evidence of corruption in this area and has taken down some big names.

As part of a recent and ongoing matter before the tribunal, evidence has been and will again shortly be, taken from Bertie Ahern. Today it emerged that a significant discrepancy has emerged between Ahern's testimony, regarding the source of a large payment made to Ahern back in 1994 of approximately £28,777 Irish pounds (received in the sterling equivalent).

Ahern claims the money was given to him by a friend (and his then landlord) Michael Wall and related to tax matters regarding the property and to refurbishment of same. The problem is that the payment is a rather odd number which, as it happens, on the day of the transaction was equivalent to $45,000 US exactly, not a fairly random sterling amount. Ahern has said he was not involved in any significant dollar amount transactions. A lawyer for the tribunal today produced bank records evidencing that on the day in question no more than £2000 Irish pounds was converted from sterling at the bank. There were however transactions in other currencies that day which would equate a payment of $45,000 dollars.

The tribunal is investigating whether the real source of the money was a developer, Owen O'Callaghan, so that Ahern would block a tax deal for a rival developer's works.


Political Implications
It's possible that the new evidence could make Ahern politically radioactive.

The Greens have, throughout the campaign, taken the toughest line with regard to issues of possible corruption, corporate donations and the like. These allegations alone could be enough to prevent the party dealing with Ahern.

During the campaign the PDs were on the verge of pulling out of government when the second series of allegations about Ahern emerged. It is believed that Mary Harney was strongly in favour of pulling out along with one or two others (McDonnell; F O'Malley). They were outvoted by the rest of the parliamentary party which was championed by now outgoing TD Tom Parlon and eventually sided with by former leader Michael McDowell. Well, now there's only 2 PDs, Harney and Grealish - and Harney is the temporary leader. These allegations will very likely discourage her from entering an Ahern led government again.

You can also be sure that if the Greens and PDs won't touch Ahern, neither will Labour - and where does that leave the next government?

In short, I've no idea. On the numbers alone, SF are a conceivable target for FF, but they've continuously ruled them out as unsuitable, even since the election.

Kenny's prospects are suddenly on the up, not massively, but nonetheless the 'anyone but FF coalition' would have to be seen as an outside chance.

Maybe though, Ahern himself could have to go...maybe the historic 3rd consecutive term (the first since deValera 60-odd years ago) could be denied him... maybe Brian Cowen could take the reigns.

Maybe another election quite shortly...

Maybe I'm overreacting and Ahern is solid and safe in his position, at least until he can respond to the tribunal...

In short, I don't know, but then, I don't think anyone else does either. Watch this space.
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #221 on: May 28, 2007, 10:49:10 AM »

The Independent TD Finian McGrath believes that FF is considering approaching Labour to form a coalition government

McGrath, along with fellow Independents, Tony Gregory and Jackie Healy Rae, have confirmed that FG and Labour have approached them, but FF hasn't

FF haven't approached anyone yet, so not much can be read into their intentions. The media concensus seems to be that the PDs and Independents are the prefered option.


Should Ahern approach either Labour or the Greens to form a coalition government, how well would this go down with either Labour voters or Green voters should either party agree to go into coalition with FF?

Dave

There's a significant group in both Labour and the Greens which really, really don't like/trust FF. Many Labour members were unhappy going into the FF/Lab deal of 1992, and even less happy thereafter.

The Greens know that their supporters aren't likely to be enthused by the prospect of a FF coalition deal, but they also know that a deal with FF would make them much more powerful than in the alternative coalition.

This should all be read in light of today's further revelations about Ahern though...
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #222 on: May 28, 2007, 11:26:43 AM »

The Independent TD Finian McGrath believes that FF is considering approaching Labour to form a coalition government

McGrath, along with fellow Independents, Tony Gregory and Jackie Healy Rae, have confirmed that FG and Labour have approached them, but FF hasn't

FF haven't approached anyone yet, so not much can be read into their intentions. The media concensus seems to be that the PDs and Independents are the prefered option.


Should Ahern approach either Labour or the Greens to form a coalition government, how well would this go down with either Labour voters or Green voters should either party agree to go into coalition with FF?

Dave

There's a significant group in both Labour and the Greens which really, really don't like/trust FF. Many Labour members were unhappy going into the FF/Lab deal of 1992, and even less happy thereafter.

The Greens know that their supporters aren't likely to be enthused by the prospect of a FF coalition deal, but they also know that a deal with FF would make them much more powerful than in the alternative coalition.

Thanks Jas

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Dave
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LucysBeau
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« Reply #223 on: May 28, 2007, 02:11:01 PM »


In short, I've no idea. On the numbers alone, SF are a conceivable target for FF, but they've continuously ruled them out as unsuitable, even since the election.

Seems to me that SF are the "Billy no mates" of Irish politics

Dave
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #224 on: May 28, 2007, 02:27:45 PM »


In short, I've no idea. On the numbers alone, SF are a conceivable target for FF, but they've continuously ruled them out as unsuitable, even since the election.

Seems to me that SF are the "Billy no mates" of Irish politics

Dave

No party wants to be labeled as terrorists, and SF's hard left policies don't help matters.
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