PA 7

[J. J.]

Sestak (D) leads Weldon (R) by one point.  Keystone Poll. MOE 4.7%.  I got this off of KWY.

I mentioned in July or August ago that I was hearing some rumblings out of PA 7.  There could be an eastern PA hat trick.

I think we better star that district as one to watch.

[Sam Spade]

Of the four PA CDs that we know we're talking about here (6, 7, 8, 10), I was unsure where to place 7 for quite a while.

I'm still unsure where to place it, even after this poll.  The only thing I know for sure is that 8 is last on the list, that's for sure.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't go strickly by a poll showing a candidate only ahead by 1 and being crushed in other polls, I would wait for other polls to confirm this.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is from a uni poll with a horrible track record, I wouldn't read into it.

[Sam Spade]

This is from a uni poll with a horrible track record, I wouldn't read into it.

Unfortunately, we don't get many polls for Congressional CDs as a whole, so you have to take what you can get in terms of polling.  The only way I would change my mind was if there was an internal poll released that showed the D(R) candidate doing worse than his own performance in the Indy poll.

I doubt this (or the PA-06) poll changes my call of the race (Toss-Up), but it probably moves each up and down a couple of spots, respectively.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I've been called a hack but ultimately from what I've seen of polling I'd rate PA-6 as Lean Republican. 

For a long time we've heard that Sestak is a good candidate but Weldon is a strong incumbent.  Weldon has been ahead in fundraising and polling for much of the campaign and is still favoured I believe.  He has wide appeal in the District and has shown an ability to survive tough re-elections before; didn't he actually win in a very pro-Democratic year, either '82 or '86 comes to mind?

[J. J.]

I've been hearing from people in the district about the race for 2 months.  I've been reading press reports and watching Sestak's ads on TV.  On paper, Weldon should cruise to a ten point victory.  I'm not seeing it, and this one could be the next PA 4.

I am not a Democrat hack by a long shot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It is a long shot but redistricting has helped the republicans maintain a slight advantage in this race. I think Weldon should win this race. The best pickup is PA 6.

[Whacker77]

I don't know if anyone else noticed this, but this poll also gave Casey a 49-32 lead over Santorum.  I'm guessing that number was just in the seventh district.  As for this race, I had been of the opinion that it had dropped off the table.  Bob Novak still lists it as "Leaning Republican", so maybe he was on to something.  Still, it's just one poll.  It could be much like the Fox poll two weeks ago that showed just a 3 point spread in the generic number.  When the next poll came out this past week, the number was in line with what others had shown.

[Keystone Phil]

This is from a uni poll with a horrible track record, I wouldn't read into it.

Unfortunately, we don't get many polls for Congressional CDs as a whole, so you have to take what you can get in terms of polling. 

Exactly. It is especially funny because Keystone was the same polling group that did PA 13 and I remember a certain moron from Minnesota harping over how much Schwartz was leading in those polls.

[Keystone Phil]

First Lady in town tomorrow for Weldon and Clinton arrives on Thursday for Sestak - http://www.timesleader.com/mld/timesleader/news/local/15662691.htm

[nini2287]

This is from a uni poll with a horrible track record, I wouldn't read into it.

Unfortunately, we don't get many polls for Congressional CDs as a whole, so you have to take what you can get in terms of polling. 

Exactly. It is especially funny because Keystone was the same polling group that did PA 13 and I remember a certain moron from Minnesota harping over how much Schwartz was leading in those polls.

Didn't that Keystone Poll more or less match the final result in PA-13?

[Keystone Phil]

This is from a uni poll with a horrible track record, I wouldn't read into it.

Unfortunately, we don't get many polls for Congressional CDs as a whole, so you have to take what you can get in terms of polling. 

Exactly. It is especially funny because Keystone was the same polling group that did PA 13 and I remember a certain moron from Minnesota harping over how much Schwartz was leading in those polls.

Didn't that Keystone Poll more or less match the final result in PA-13?

I believe so. I think they had Schwartz up 12.