2008: Romney vs. Bayh

[DownWithTheLeft]

It really does not need a large explanation as it could easily happen, here's my map:

Romney 270
Bayh 268

Biggest Romney Victory's:
Utah 83%
Idaho 68%
Alabama 65%
Kansas 65%
Alaska 63%

Biggest Bayh Victory's"
DC 88%
Illinois 63%
New York 58%
Vermont 56%
California 54%

Closest States:
Indiana- Bayh by .45%
Nevada- Bayh by 1.2%
Massachusetts- Romney by 1.4%
Connecticut- Romney by 2%
Rhode Island- Bayh by 2.2%

[jokerman]

No.

[© tweed]

Romney would have absolutely no chance in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Maine.

[Boris]

Romney would have absolutely no chance in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Maine.

No.

^^^^^

Oh, and Bayh wouldn't carry Indiana either.

[Lincoln Republican]

Indiana teeters on the brink all evening, until, at 11:47 P.M. election night, Indiana is called for native son Bayh by 2,748 votes.

Romney pulls out a squeaker win in New Hampshire, in his home base of New England, when New Hampshire is called for Romney at 11:54 P.M. election night  by the razor thin margin of 1,469 votes.

It all comes down to New Mexico.  The lead switches back and forth all night long, until, at 3:17 A.M. the morning after election day, New Mexico is called for Romney by 1,786 votes. 

It was found that about 97% of the considerable Mormon population in New Mexico showed up to vote, of these, 96% cast their ballots for Romney, putting him over the top in the state, and putting him into the Oval Office.   

Romney          272
Bayh               266

[True Democrat]

I just don't see Romney's campaign going anywhere.  His Mormonism would hurt him everywhere but Utah and Idaho.  I think it would be a Bayh blowout.  A lot of evangelicals would vote for Bayh.

Bayh wins 381-157.

This is also assuming that a major leftist third party doesn't run.

[DownWithTheLeft]

How does Bayh win WV or a lot of those other states?

[True Democrat]

How does Bayh win WV or a lot of those other states?

Romney is a Mormon.  The Southern Baptist Convention considers Mormonism to be a cult.  I think that a lot of Baptists would either stay home or vote for Bayh.

[jokerman]

How does Bayh win WV or a lot of those other states?

WV?

You've got to be joking to ask.  Do you need a history lesson?

[Reignman]

Bayh wins election. Neither win home state.

[TomC]

TD's got the map above. After Bush, the electorate will be ready for a change. Romney has nothing fresh to offer and Bayh is a relatively "safe" (albeit dull) change.

[Inmate Trump]

[Colin]

I have to agree with TD. His Mormonism would make him very unappealing to the religious right in the South though it is possible that they would still vote for him anyway, an Al Smith type of situation. However this would definitely tip the balance in a number of less Republican states along the Mississippi and the Upper South, along with Bayh's populism and social conservatism. The only New England state that Romney would probably carry would be New Hampshire, which I think he has a good chance of carrying, with the off chance of possible Maine, a very off-chance.

Expect him to have record numbers in Utah and Idaho though.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Strange election.  Bayh runs as a more conservative, populist Democrat that a large percentage of conservatives find more acceptable than a Northern Mormon.  Bayh sweeps the eastern US, while Romney wins in the libertarian West.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

what's with New Hampshire on your map?  And are the Sourthern Baptists really that powerful down south?

[jokerman]

Romney would hold on to Texas and Alabama at the least, I think.

[adam]

Bayh/Bayh

Romney's mormonism would secure the southwest. However his flip-flopping on virtually every issue would kill him in swing states as would his liberal record in a few conservative states.

[AndrewTX]

I'm gonna make a map, cuz I'm bored.

Have a ball

Bayh-  335
Romney- 203

[Stranger in a strange land]

Bayh wins everywhere except the deep south, where it's close, Nebraska, and Western states with large mormon populations. The constitution party gets better than 5% of the vote, and breaks double digits in much of the south.

[adam]

Bayh wins everywhere except the deep south, where it's close, Nebraska, and Western states with large mormon populations. The constitution party gets better than 5% of the vote, and breaks double digits in much of the south.

As big an idiot as Romney is, I don't think he (or any Republican for that matter) should have a problem securing anything in the "Dakota Column" (North/South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas).

[Stranger in a strange land]

Bayh wins everywhere except the deep south, where it's close, Nebraska, and Western states with large mormon populations. The constitution party gets better than 5% of the vote, and breaks double digits in much of the south.

As big an idiot as Romney is, I don't think he (or any Republican for that matter) should have a problem securing anything in the "Dakota Column" (North/South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas).

I think Romney's mormonism, flip-flopping, and former governorship of massachusetts could swing most states in that column away from him. I think many evangelical christians would rather vote for a somewhat liberal protestant democrat than for a somewhat conservative mormon republican, or they would vote for some crazy right-wing 3rd party, ie the constitution party.

[Democratic Hawk]

Oh, and Bayh wouldn't carry Indiana either.

He would against Romney

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

A lot of evangelicals would vote for Bayh.

45% of Indiana's evangelicals voted for Bayh in his 2004 Senate race

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

It's quite a shame that this race won't be playing off for real come 2008

Dave

[War on Want]

what's with New Hampshire on your map?  And are the Sourthern Baptists really that powerful down south?

No, but most Christians down south consider Mormonism a cult. Heck, most Christians everywhere(including me) consider it a cult, or a different religion.