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Author Topic: NJ: Mason-Dixon: Menendez (D) leads Kean (R)  (Read 3460 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 02, 2006, 03:52:55 am »
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New Poll: New Jersey Senator by Mason-Dixon on 2006-09-30

Summary: D: 44%, R: 41%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2006, 04:24:09 am »
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A really close race ...advantage Kean has disappeared somehow...
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« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2006, 07:58:28 am »
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I wouldn't be so sure about it, because Mason Dixon is a little bit off on the VA senate race, some of the polls aren't going to be necessarily accurate.
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adam
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« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2006, 08:05:58 am »
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I think this poll is about accurate, considering the partisan makeup of the state. Unless Kean really gets on the ball, he is not going to get the Undecided dump he needs to win in the heavily Democratic state.
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« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2006, 10:20:56 am »
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I would like to see a couple of polls move into the Menendez camp......
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« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2006, 10:21:18 am »
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It's alive!!!! It's alive!!!! (Menendez's canidacy that is). DWTL can't be too happy about this.


Time to move this race from "lean GOP" back to full "tossup" status.
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« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2006, 10:49:44 am »
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Quote from: adam on October 02, 2006, 08:05:58 am
I think this poll is about accurate, considering the partisan makeup of the state. Unless Kean really gets on the ball, he is not going to get the Undecided dump he needs to win in the heavily Democratic state.

I agree.
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« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2006, 10:53:58 am »
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The last two reputable polls on this race (i.e. non-Uni polls) show it at Kean 41% Menendez 40% and now Menendez 44% Kean 41%.  If either of those are the case on election day, we know that undecideds will break hard for Menendez (they always do in NJ, look at the Gov. race last yr: nobody predicted Corzine would win by 10.5%) and give him the election. I don't really see much of a choice but to move this back into "Tossup D".

Menendez is such a prick too.  But, hell, who cares.  Vote for the (D).
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« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2006, 12:21:19 pm »
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I'm now of the opinion that this is the only Senate seat that the Democrats seriously risk losing. And if they do, it won't be because of Jnr's strengths, rather Menendez' weaknesses

Opinions can change though Wink

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« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2006, 01:32:55 pm »
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Quote from: Senator Dave 'Hawk' PPT on October 02, 2006, 12:21:19 pm
I'm now of the opinion that this is the only Senate seat that the Democrats seriously risk losing. And if they do, it won't be because of Jnr's strengths, rather Menendez' weaknesses

Opinions can change though Wink

Dave

Well of course - Jr. dosen't have any strengths besides his last name!
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Quote from: MikeyCNY on December 27, 2006, 03:20:04 pm
I'm still going out on a limb here and predicting that Tom Vilsack will eventually become the Dem nominee. 

The others--Edwards, Hillary, and Obama, have peaked WAY too early

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« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2006, 02:12:58 pm »
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Quote from: Deano963 on October 02, 2006, 01:32:55 pm
Quote from: Senator Dave 'Hawk' PPT on October 02, 2006, 12:21:19 pm
I'm now of the opinion that this is the only Senate seat that the Democrats seriously risk losing. And if they do, it won't be because of Jnr's strengths, rather Menendez' weaknesses

Opinions can change though Wink

Dave
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Well of course - Jr. dosen't have any strengths besides his last name!
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« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2006, 03:13:40 pm »
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Quote from: Eraserhead on October 02, 2006, 10:21:18 am
It's alive!!!! It's alive!!!! (Menendez's canidacy that is). DWTL can't be too happy about this.


Time to move this race from "lean GOP" back to full "tossup" status.

Nah, especially considering the poll from Mason-Dixon in VA which was immediatley contradicted by Rasmussen.  I think the undecideds are Menendez voters that stopped supporting him because of his corruption and will stay home.  Depending on the turnout Kean wins somewhere between 2-7 points.
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« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2006, 03:19:58 pm »
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I love people that are moving this race to Democrat based on one poll taken before the tape came out
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2006, 04:40:57 pm »
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Interesting. Im about to move this back to dem if another poll has menendez up.
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« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2006, 06:09:03 pm »
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Quote from: Jtfdem on October 02, 2006, 04:40:57 pm
Interesting. Im about to move this back to dem if another poll has menendez up.

I love your new signature, I'm trying to get Harold Ford Jr. but I can't find a direct link to one of his bumper stickers
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« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2006, 06:10:56 pm »
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Quote from: DownWithTheLeft on October 02, 2006, 03:19:58 pm
I love people that are moving this race to Democrat based on one poll taken before the tape came out

MD is the most credible polling firm out there.
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Joel the Attention Whore
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« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2006, 06:13:48 pm »
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Quote from: DownWithTheLeft on October 02, 2006, 03:19:58 pm
I love people that are moving this race to Democrat based on one poll taken before the tape came out

Right.

It's ONE poll, though I do think it's accurate.
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« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2006, 06:14:06 pm »
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Quote from: AndrewBerger on October 02, 2006, 06:10:56 pm
Quote from: DownWithTheLeft on October 02, 2006, 03:19:58 pm
I love people that are moving this race to Democrat based on one poll taken before the tape came out

MD is the most credible polling firm out there.

It's still one poll and was taken before the tape came out
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« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2006, 07:03:49 pm »
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Also taken before the Foley and Woodward stories broke.
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« Reply #19 on: October 02, 2006, 07:18:05 pm »
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MSNBC poll page

Says it was registered voters, not likely.  Also, they really oversmpled the 65+ crowd and undersampled self described conservatives compared to the 2004 election results.
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« Reply #20 on: October 02, 2006, 08:43:49 pm »
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Quote from: ATFFL on October 02, 2006, 07:18:05 pm
MSNBC poll page

Says it was registered voters, not likely.  Also, they really oversmpled the 65+ crowd and undersampled self described conservatives compared to the 2004 election results.
They also interviewed too many whites according to our population. They over sampled conservatives. There are far more liberals then conservatives in NJ.
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« Reply #21 on: October 02, 2006, 09:01:50 pm »
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Quote from: ATFFL on October 02, 2006, 07:18:05 pm
MSNBC poll page

Says it was registered voters, not likely.  Also, they really oversmpled the 65+ crowd and undersampled self described conservatives compared to the 2004 election results.

Fewer self-identified conservatives probably exist than did in 2004 in NJ.
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« Reply #22 on: October 03, 2006, 07:38:36 am »
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Quote from: ATFFL on October 02, 2006, 07:18:05 pm
MSNBC poll page

Says it was registered voters, not likely. 
A necessity in polling New Jersey.
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undersampled self described conservatives compared to the 2004 election results.
That's not what I'd call undersampling. Smiley
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #23 on: October 03, 2006, 10:09:59 am »
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Quote from: ATFFL on October 02, 2006, 07:18:05 pm
MSNBC poll page

Says it was registered voters, not likely.  Also, they really oversmpled the 65+ crowd and undersampled self described conservatives compared to the 2004 election results.

The article says, quote:

"A total of 625 registered New Jersey voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election."

So, what to do now ? Should i change it to RV or let the LV stay ?
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« Reply #24 on: October 03, 2006, 12:23:47 pm »
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Quote from: Harry Haller on October 03, 2006, 10:09:59 am
Quote from: ATFFL on October 02, 2006, 07:18:05 pm
MSNBC poll page

Says it was registered voters, not likely.  Also, they really oversmpled the 65+ crowd and undersampled self described conservatives compared to the 2004 election results.

The article says, quote:

"A total of 625 registered New Jersey voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election."

So, what to do now ? Should i change it to RV or let the LV stay ?

All of the polls say that.  That's not much of an LV screen. 
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