FL-16: RT Strategies/CD - Mahoney (D) leads by 7%

[Democratic Hawk]

Realclearpolitics lists it as a 3-point head; however, according to http://www.majoritywatch.com/

Foley/Negron [R] 43% / Mahoney [D] 50% - a Democrat lead of 7%

Poll suggests Mahoney's support is more solid (40% strong/10% weak); while, by comparison, support for Negron is weaker (28% strong/15% weak)

The district is now part of the RT Strategies/CD "Majority Watch" project

Dave

[Adlai Stevenson]

Wow this pollster responded pretty quickly.  An encouraging result if believable.  Mahoney is already over the halfway mark and 4% ahead of John Kerry in 2004.  I think FL-16 is a definite Democrat pickup. 

[Eraserhead]

Do people who support Negron really understand that they have to vote for the pedophile on the ballot?
If they do and he still has even 43% that is pretty sad.

[Sam Spade]

Actually, this is a bit better result, if true, for the Republicans than I thought.

The difference between the 50%-43% and the 49%-46% is that in the second iteration, respondents were told that votes would count for a separate unnamed Republican nominee, whereas they weren't the first time.

Obviously, the goal of the Republican candidate Joe Negron is going to be to make sure this fact is known to the residents of the CD.

From what I've read, it appears like that about $600,000 of $1,000,000 left from his AG campaign earlier this year.  This means that Negron should start off with a decent amount of funds to run a campaign.

I would still leave it at the bottom of my lean D list for now.  No change.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mahoney should use his hot daughter more in ads.