Odds of a GOP shut-out in each category?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Shut-out meaning absolutely no pick ups. I did one before one the odds of a complete GOP shutout in all three, but let's look at each individually. What I say:

Gubernatorial races: 75%

The only chances they have are Maine, Iowa and a growing slimmer chance in Michigan. In all three however, the Democrat is favored. I find it fairly humorous that we basically have three governorships already won (New York, Ohio and Massachusetts [sorry Walter]), yet three is basically their max.

Senate: 50%

It basically comes down to New Jersey, because that's their only chance at a pick up now. And it's a 50/50 race right now, hence the odds.

House: 55%

The only serious chance they have at one is IL-8, and I'd bet on Bean due to her leading in every poll. In a better year they might be able to take a seat in Georgia, but not now. After that, maybe WV-1 and the polls show a long shot at VT-AL, but those are big long shots still. I'll give them a 40% chance at IL-8, and I'll be generous and assume a 5% chance at anything else.

[Nym90]

I predict the GOP will indeed get shut out in all 3.

Although if your numbers are right, the odds of a complete shutout of gains in all three would be .75*.5*.55=20.625%

[Mr. Morden]

I predict the GOP will indeed get shut out in all 3.

Although if your numbers are right, the odds of a complete shutout of gains in all three would be .75*.5*.55=20.625%

Only if the three are all completely uncorrelated.  I would assume that there are certain events (like another major scandal or gas prices moving significantly in one direction or the other) that could help or hurt Republicans across the board.

[Nym90]

I predict the GOP will indeed get shut out in all 3.

Although if your numbers are right, the odds of a complete shutout of gains in all three would be .75*.5*.55=20.625%

Only if the three are all completely uncorrelated.  I would assume that there are certain events (like another major scandal or gas prices moving significantly in one direction or the other) that could help or hurt Republicans across the board.

Oh, absolutely. I was just saying that at this point in time, that would be the probability of a complete GOP shutout in the House, Senate, and Governor's races. Obviously all three will have a tendency to either rise or fall together rather than seperately, though Governor's races are a bit more independent of national trends than the House and Senate are.

[Adlai Stevenson]

While it is quite likely it is also possible that the Republicans could gain Governorships in Michigan and Oregon and at a longer stretch, Wisconsin.  These are their best chances for any pickups. 

In the Senate, their only realistic prospect is New Jersey while Maryland and Washington are outsiders. 

I don't think the House is very likely at all; Melissa Bean has led in all the polls I've seen in IL-8 show Bean leading and I think the seats in Georgia are relatively safe, at least in this cycle.  I think their best prospect is in VT-AL of all places; Martha Rainville is a strong candidate and seems to have a good grassroots effort and Vermont is enough of a contrarian state to send a socialist to the Senate and elect a Republican in their worst year for a long time.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think the Governorships are starting to dry up - ME and IA only possiblities. Granholm was their chance at a biggie - but she's pulling away.


As for the Senate - NJ is their ONLY shot. I have been tentively puttting it into the leans Rep category but that has been out of nerves. The undecideds in this race are FAR too high for comfort.

The House will be a fun one to watch.

[Nym90]

Odds are probably about 80-85% that the GOP is shut-out in the House. For governorships, it's more like 70% as Iowa is mildly vulnerable. For the Senate, it's the exact same odds as Menendez holding on to NJ--about 55%.

So a 30.8% probability (if we use 80% for the House) of a total shutout.