General midterm predictions

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I predict:

House: 220-215 Democrat
Senate: 50-50 Republican (Cheney breaks ties)

[Frodo]

House of Representatives

Democrats: 225
Republicans: 210

Senate

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 49
independent: 1 (Bernie Sanders)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My guess right now is a narrow Democratic majority in the House and an even narrower GOP majority in the Senate.

But things do change and so will this prediction.

[Silent Hunter]

I haven't completed my seat-by-seat, but I'm predicting a Democrat takeover of the House. Not a big majority though.

GOP will retain the Senate.

[Moooooo]

I have no idea about the house.

49-49-2 in the Senate.

[Nym90]

House:

D 220 R 215

Senate:

D 51 R 49 (counting Lieberman and Sanders as Dems since that's how they will caucus)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The electorial-vote predictor didn't update it with Reuters, McCaskill is behind it is a tied senate.

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully the US Conservatives are as bad as the Austrian ones this year, when they lost 13 of their 79 seats last Sunday. It looks not bad for the Democrats to turn this thing around - but i make my final prediction the day before the election, but for now I´d say they take the House and it gets close with the Senate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, Gallup has put Talent ahead. It won't be a tied senate. Gallup: 50-44%. And in TN the race is tied, it isn't 49-49 tie. And Mason Dixon had it a 43% all tie so you can't predict to be a win for the dems at the present time.

[Gustaf]

I'm not really competent to judge the House but with the whole Foley thing erupting it seems to me that it should go Democrat. But I expect it to be closer than many people think.

On the senate it's really too early to predict yet, but if I had to guess right now I say Democrats take Tennessee, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana, giving the GOP control with 51 seats.

[© tweed]

House: 218 R 217 D

Senate: 49 D 49 R 2 I

[poughies]

HMMMM.........

House 222 Dems
          213 Republicans

Senate
I'm pretty sure each side with have 49 (including Lieberman and Sanders)...... I don't know though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't think the republicans are going to lose both MO and TN I say they win at least one of them.

[Flying Dog]

I'll just post my predictions on the hot senate races...

RI:
Chafee 45%
Whitehouse 54%

CT:
Lieberman 47%
Lamont 44%
Shslen..whatever 8%

NJ:
Kean Jr 48%
Menendez 49%

MD:
Cardin 53%
Steele 45%

PA:
Casey Jr 54%
Santorum 46%

VA:
Allen 53%
Webb 47%

FL:
Nelson 49%
Harris 51%

MS:
Fleming 59%
Lott 39%

TN:
Ford Jr 49.7%
Corker 49.5%

OH:
Brown 52%
DeWine 48%

MI:
Stabenow 56%
Bouchard 43%

MN:
Kolbuchar 54%
Kennedy 43%

MO:
Talent 49.8%
McCaskill 49.5%

MT:
Tester 54%
Burns 45%


Just kiddin on FL, and MS was for harry

D:48 R:50 I:2

[Soaring Eagle]

House:

Dems win a majority. I will not attempt to call the exact number of seats they gain because there are too many competitive races.

Senate:

Dems win PA, MT, OH, RI, MO, TN, and VA while keeping all of their seats.

Dem - 51
GOP - 48
Ind - 1

[poughies]

U had me there with that mississippi and florida....

[Democratic Hawk]

Not in a position to make any predictions yet but I will. In fact, I'll attempt to predict IN-2, IN-8 and IN-9 county by county all in good time

Dave

[mgrossbe]

Dave,

The thing i really did not like when i was looking at the redistricting of Indiana. Was that they put a sliver of Monroe in IN-04 that sliver is basically the city of elletsville which is basically the oppisite of bloomington.  If you are liberal you live in b-town conservative you live in elletsville its kinda like the moving of kokomo into the second district.

[adam]

I too will just post some senate predictions. (bold indicates winners)

Rhode Island:
Lincoln Chafee (R) - 49.2%
Sheldon Whitehouse(D) - 49.5%

Connecticut:
Joe Lieberman (CFL) - 43.1%
Ned Lamont (D) - 43.7%
Alan Schlesinger (R) - 13.2%

New Jersey:
Bob Menendez (D) - 50.6%
Tom Kean Jr. (R) - 49.4%

Maryland:
Ben Cardin (D) - 54.7%
Michael Steele (R) - 45.3%

Pennsylvania:
Rick Santorum (R) - 42.4%
Bob Casey Jr. (D) - 57.6%

Virginia:
George Allen (R) - 49.1%
Jim Webb (D) - 49.9%

New York:
Hillary Clinton (D) - 56.9%
John Spencer (R) - 43.1%

Washington:
Maria Cantwell (D) - 49.1%
Mike McGavick(R) - 43.7%
Bruce Guthrie (L) - 7.2%

Tennesee:
Bob Corker (R) - 48.9%
Harold Ford Jr. (D) - 51.1%

Ohio:
Mike DeWine (R) - 46.6%
Sherrod Brown (D) - 53.4%

Missouri:
Jim Talent (R) - 49.9%
Claire McCaskill (D) - 50.1%

Montana:
Conrad Burns (R) - 43.8%
Jon Tester (D) - 56.2%

[Alcon]

Vlad,

There's a Green, Aaron Dixon, on the ballot, here, who might shave off a lot of anti-war folks.  Not a ton, but quite a few.

Beyond that...damn, generous tothe Republicans in New York a little?

[adam]

Vlad,

There's a Green, Aaron Dixon, on the ballot, here, who might shave off a lot of anti-war folks.  Not a ton, but quite a few.

Beyond that...damn, generous tothe Republicans in New York a little?

Haha, Green Party...that's cute. Seriously though, now that Guthrie will be in the debates and has actually done something honorable (or insane depending on your viewpoint) he'll be the third party candidate to watch. As liberal as Washington is...I don't see Dixon cracking 1%. Then again, you know the state better than I do...so you could probably call it better than I.

And yes, most of my NY predictions are sprinkled with a pinch of wishful thinking...but it never hurts to dream.

[MasterJedi]

And now I know not to listen to Vlad a lot for some of his picks.

[Alcon]

Vlad,

There's a Green, Aaron Dixon, on the ballot, here, who might shave off a lot of anti-war folks.  Not a ton, but quite a few.

Beyond that...damn, generous tothe Republicans in New York a little?

Haha, Green Party...that's cute. Seriously though, now that Guthrie will be in the debates and has actually done something honorable (or insane depending on your viewpoint) he'll be the third party candidate to watch. As liberal as Washington is...I don't see Dixon cracking 1%. Then again, you know the state better than I do...so you could probably call it better than I.

And yes, most of my NY predictions are sprinkled with a pinch of wishful thinking...but it never hurts to dream.

Guthrie is going to steal a lot from Dixon, but I still can't imagine him not breaking 1%.

Guthrie being in the debate will make things VERY interesting, though.

[adam]

Vlad,

There's a Green, Aaron Dixon, on the ballot, here, who might shave off a lot of anti-war folks.  Not a ton, but quite a few.

Beyond that...damn, generous tothe Republicans in New York a little?

Haha, Green Party...that's cute. Seriously though, now that Guthrie will be in the debates and has actually done something honorable (or insane depending on your viewpoint) he'll be the third party candidate to watch. As liberal as Washington is...I don't see Dixon cracking 1%. Then again, you know the state better than I do...so you could probably call it better than I.

And yes, most of my NY predictions are sprinkled with a pinch of wishful thinking...but it never hurts to dream.

Guthrie is going to steal a lot from Dixon, but I still can't imagine him not breaking 1%.

Guthrie being in the debate will make things VERY interesting, though.

Agreed. In fact I think that his presence in the debates could be the nail in McGavicks coffin. Seeing as how if he performs well, most of his support will come from fiscal conservatives rather than social liberals/libertarians (as is the nature of LP candidates).

[Silent Hunter]

At the maximum, the Democrats will get 51 (counting Lieberman and Saunders).