General midterm predictions

[ucscgaldamez]

2006 House Predictions

Current:   232 Republicans, 202 Democrats
Prediction: 220 Republicans, 215 Democrats.

Democratic Pickups: AZ-08, CO-07, Fla-16, IN-02, IN-08, IN-09, MN-06, NC-11, NY-26, OH-18, PA-10, TX-22


2006 Senate Predictions
Current: 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats, 1 Independent
Prediction: 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, 2 Independents (Lieberman, Sanders)

Democratic Pickups: Montana, Pennsylvania, Ohio
Republican pickups: New Jersey

Connecticut Senate
Lieberman (I) 50%**
Lamont (D) 44%
Schlessinger (R)  6%

Florida Senate
Katherine Harris (R) 43%
Bill Nelson (D) 56%**

Michigan Senate
Debbie Stabenow (D) 52%***
Mike Bouchard (R) 43%
Other                  (I) 4

Minnesota Senate
Mark Kennedy (R) 45%
Amy Klobuchar (D) 51%***
Others                  (I) 4%

Vermont Senate
Bernie Sanders (I) 56%****
Rich Tarrant (R) 42%
Diamondstone (I) 1%

Maryland Senate
Ben Cardin (D) 49%**
Michael Steele (R) 47%

Pennsylvania Senate
Rick Santorum (R) 46%
Bob Casey (D) 53%***

Washington Senate
Maria Cantwell (D) 53%***
Mike McGavick (R) 45%
Other 3%

Missouri Senate
Jim Talent (R) 50%***
Claire McCaskill (D) 49%


Montana Senate
John Tester (D) 49%***
Conrad Burns (R) 47%

New Jersey Senate
Bob Menendez (D) 49%
Thomas Kean Jr. (R) 51%****

Ohio Senate
Mike DeWine (R) 48%
Sherrod Brown (D) 50%**

Rhode Island Senate
Lincoln Chaffee (R) 49%**
Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 48%

Tennesee Senate
Harold Ford (D) 48%
Bob Corker (R) 50%***

[zorkpolitics]

The Foley mess is the voter's last straw, after Iraq, Katrina, Gas prices, the voters have had it.  Unfortunately that means the Democrats are in for a blow out win.
Senate Republicans lose 6 seats:
        Democrats (and caucusing independents) 51,  Republicans  49
House Democrats pick up 32 seats: 
         Democrats 235 Republicans 200

[The Dowager Mod]

Senate 51(R)47(D)2(I)
House 219(R)216(D)

[ucscgaldamez]

I am adjusting my prediction for the Pennsylvania Senate Race:

Bob Casey 50%
Santorum 49%

More Likely: Casey 52%/ Santorum 48%

I have been analyzing data from undecideds and it seems that for the most part they will break in favor of Santorum by margins of 55-45 or higher. The Republican pro-life crowd is coming back to Santorum's side and the debates along with the GOTV efforts will make this race closer than we think it will be at this point. Again,  I might be wrong, but there should be polls release this week (I hope) that will tell the story of the effects of the debates had in terms of the undecideds. If they are still undecided after the debates, chances are they will break evenly between both candidates, which benefits Casey.

The turnout in Central Pennsylvania along with the Philadelphia suburbs will be crucial for Santorum. But the latest data I saw is not very encouraging for the senator. Again, I hope that some polls come out this week to show where this race is trending if any trend is found.

[okstate]

I am pessimistic about the GOP's chances right now.

Democrats sweep the competitive Senate races in a wave, basically. 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans, and 2 Independents. Dems hold NJ, MD, and everything else. The GOP loses Ohio, PA, RI, MT, MO, TN, and VA.

In the House, without looking at my seat-by-seat predictions, in a wave I see the House ending up 200 GOP - 235 Dem give or take a seat. However, tomorrow I'll look through my actual seat by seat predictions and see where that gets me.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

House - Dem: 221 Rep: 214

Senate - Dem: 49 Rep: 49 Ind: 2

[Downwinder]

I too will just post some senate predictions. (bold indicates winners)

Rhode Island:
Lincoln Chafee (R) - 49.2%
Sheldon Whitehouse(D) - 49.5%

Connecticut:
Joe Lieberman (CFL) - 43.1%
Ned Lamont (D) - 43.7%
Alan Schlesinger (R) - 13.2%

New Jersey:
Bob Menendez (D) - 50.6%
Tom Kean Jr. (R) - 49.4%

Maryland:
Ben Cardin (D) - 54.7%
Michael Steele (R) - 45.3%

Pennsylvania:
Rick Santorum (R) - 42.4%
Bob Casey Jr. (D) - 57.6%

Virginia:
George Allen (R) - 49.1%
Jim Webb (D) - 49.9%

New York:
Hillary Clinton (D) - 56.9%
John Spencer (R) - 43.1%

Washington:
Maria Cantwell (D) - 49.1%
Mike McGavick(R) - 43.7%
Bruce Guthrie (L) - 7.2%

Tennesee:
Bob Corker (R) - 48.9%
Harold Ford Jr. (D) - 51.1%

Ohio:
Mike DeWine (R) - 46.6%
Sherrod Brown (D) - 53.4%

Missouri:
Jim Talent (R) - 49.9%
Claire McCaskill (D) - 50.1%

Montana:
Conrad Burns (R) - 43.8%
Jon Tester (D) - 56.2%

I think those are mighty damn good predictions.  While you were thinking wishfully about NY, you could have dreamed about Utah too.  "
After being the next victim in the outing//pageboys scandal--pictures released of Senator Hatch spanking Senate Pages with a Book of Mormon--Senator Hatch is overwhelmingly reelected:

Hatch 86.1%
Ashdown 12%

Reports from Utah were that voters were 'bleating like sheep in the polling booths.'"

That sounds about right....