Bizarre voting patterns in the past

[minionofmidas]

perhaps the most bizarre voting pattern though is that of Alachua county, Florida's top 3 candidates were this:

Hoover (Republican) - 35.01%
Thomas (Socialist) - 32.18%
Foster (Communist) - 30.15%

Dave Leip explained that Florida voters cast their votes for individual electors (if a state had N electors, a voter could vote for N of the candidates listed on the ballot).  Traditionally, when such a system is used, the vote total of the leading elector candidate of a party slate is the one that is reported.  In Alachua County, the ballot layout was confusing or unconventional such that many voters voted for some of the wrong party candidates.  So where a voter might be expecting the following electoral slate (all GOP candidates):

George Washington (GOP)
John Adams (GOP)
Thomas Jefferson (GOP)

the ballot had:

James Madison (GOP)
James Monroe (Communist)
John Q Adams (Socialist)

I don't know the ballot details, but it is quite possible that Hoover's name did not appear on the ballot, and possibly the party affiliation.  Or maybe it was just confusing (like the butterfly ballot of 2000).  So many voters intending to vote the GOP slate accidentally voted for a Communist and a Socialist.  Each had the high total for his respective party, and it is this number that is reported.  The fact that there was small dropoffs indicates that a small percentage of the voters knew the correct elector names.

Democrat actually, not GOP.

[mianfei]

also in Multnomah county, Oregon voted for Nixon. But in 1972, it voted for McGovern! Is this the only county in the country to do so?

No, Multnomah is not the only county to vote for Nixon in 1960 and McGovern in 1972. The following counties also voted for Nixon in 1960 but for McGovern in 1972:

• Pitkin, Colorado
• Jackson, Illinois
• Johnson, Iowa
• Lake, Michigan
• Washtenaw, Michigan
• Kandiyohi, Minnesota
• Mower, Minnesota
• Nobles, Minnesota
• Pope, Minnesota
• Stevens, Minnesota
• Athens, Ohio
• Bonhomme, South Dakota
• Brown, South Dakota
• Clay, South Dakota
• Dewey, South Dakota
• Edmunds, South Dakota
• McCook, South Dakota
• Marshall, South Dakota
• Miner, South Dakota
• Moody, South Dakota
• Sanborn, South Dakota
• Union, South Dakota
• Todd, South Dakota

Most of these are totally different from urban, fiercely secular and anti-Catholic Multnomah County (although Oregon was more Democratic than the nation in 1956, I am sure Kennedy would have known not to target it because of anti-Catholicism). They are either counties in or near South Dakota’s East River where McGovern had a powerful personal vote (as he would too in Native American Todd County) or college-town counties where McGovern’s liberalism began to have appeal with the welfare state allowing more people to study at college.

[AtorBoltox]

Why did you feel the need to reply to a post from over 12 years ago?

[mianfei]

Why did you feel the need to reply to a post from over 12 years ago?

I was searching through the site and dislike starting new threads – it seems wasteful.

Tompkins County NY voted against FDR all 4 times. It voted Republican in all but one election (LBJ's supreme 1964 landslide) up to 1980. It voted for Reagan then. In Reagan's landslide 1984 election it voted Democrat for the 2nd time ever (that I could find). It's always gone Democrat since, and Bush got only a third of the vote in 2000, it's one of the most liberal counties in the US now.

Tompkins is one of six counties voting for Landon in 1936 and Mondale in 1984 (what a presidential election quiz that would be):

• Magoffin, Kentucky
• Ringgold, Iowa
• Dukes, Massachusetts
• Middlesex, Massachusetts
• Keweenaw, Michigan
• Tompkins, New York

Keweenaw is really singular – three times in succession it was the most Republican county in the nation, and Davis got only three percent of the county’s vote in 1924! Yet, sixty years later Reagan with 525 electoral votes lost this once rock-ribbed county by 29 votes. Of course this trend, and its reversion to more Republican since Bush junior, are related to mining unionization and deunionization. The same is true for Magoffin – a historically anti-secession county which supported Roosevelt in 1932 and 1940 but where pro-prohibition Landon won by 23 votes. Ringgold is a very small farm crisis rural county with similar strong pro-prohibition sentiment.

The two Massachusetts counties represent an intensified trend began with Goldwater: Dukes had never voted Democratic before 1964, whilst Tompkins had done so only in the divided 1912 election.

[Kantakouzenos]

I don't know if it's common knowledge or not over here, but counties with a lot of Dutch ancestry tend to be reliably Republican.  To give some examples, Ottawa County Michigan has typically been the state's most reliably Republican County in elections prior to 2016.Other Counties in the state that have historically been very Republican such as Allegan County, just south of Ottawa, and Missaukee County in the rural north of the lower Peninsula are also very dutch as well.  Kent County just east of Ottawa county is pretty dutch and has been historically Republican as well, although it has recently been less Republican, probably because of it's higher African American population. 

As for Iowa, the only other state with some plurality dutch counties, the pattern is repeated.  Sioux County has a lot of people with Dutch Ancestry and it is definitely Iowa's most Republican county.  The surrounding counties are also pretty Republican (and Dutch) for that matter.  In the southeast part of the state, Mahaska and Marion Counties are fairly Republican as well and they also happen to a lot of people with Dutch Ancestry. 

I can't think of any reasons why this might be, beyond the particular religion they brought with them.  For anyone curious, I got this information on ancestry from census and American Community Survey data through the American Fact Finder website, and various maps of where people of different ethnicities live I found on the internet. 

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Not bizarre, but interesting is Clayton County, Georgia.

It was carried by Wallace, Reagan, GHW Bush, and Kerry.

In 1980, it was one of 13 counties carried by Reagan.  In 2004 it was one of 26 counties carried by Kerry.

1932: 97% FDR
1960: 67% JFK
1964: 64% Goldwater
1968: 50% Wallace, 35% Nixon, 15% HHH
1972: 86% Nixon
1976: 62% Carter
1980: 50% Reagan 46% Carter
1984: 73% Reagan
1988: 65% Bush
1992: 45% Clinton, 41% Bush, 14% Perot
1996: 56% Clinton, 37% Cole, 6% Perot
2000: 65% Gore
2004: 70% Kerry

It was up to 83% Clinton in 2016.  I imagine that the demographics of the county must have changed.  Suburban swing wouldn't explain a 73% Reagan county becoming 83% Clinton over 32 years.

EDIT: I just looked into it more, and it was 91% white in 1980 and only 18% white at the last census.  I would be curious to know more about the drivers behind the change.

[SingingAnalyst]

Not bizarre, but interesting is Clayton County, Georgia.

It was carried by Wallace, Reagan, GHW Bush, and Kerry.

In 1980, it was one of 13 counties carried by Reagan.  In 2004 it was one of 26 counties carried by Kerry.

1932: 97% FDR
1960: 67% JFK
1964: 64% Goldwater
1968: 50% Wallace, 35% Nixon, 15% HHH
1972: 86% Nixon
1976: 62% Carter
1980: 50% Reagan 46% Carter
1984: 73% Reagan
1988: 65% Bush
1992: 45% Clinton, 41% Bush, 14% Perot
1996: 56% Clinton, 37% Cole, 6% Perot
2000: 65% Gore
2004: 70% Kerry

It was up to 83% Clinton in 2016.  I imagine that the demographics of the county must have changed.  Suburban swing wouldn't explain a 73% Reagan county becoming 83% Clinton over 32 years.

EDIT: I just looked into it more, and it was 91% white in 1980 and only 18% white at the last census.  I would be curious to know more about the drivers behind the change.

Sounds like white flight, not unlike what happened in Detroit, MI and other communities (the Rosedale Park neighborhood in Detroit went from 99% white in 1970 to 38% white in 1980 to 11% white in 1990; Palmer Park went from 65% white in 1980 to 13% white in 1990).