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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Which GOP NY House districts go Democrat?
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Poll
Question: Well?
3 - King - eastern Nassau   -8 (9.9%)
13 - Fossella - Staten Island   -4 (4.9%)
19 - Kelly - northern NYC exurbs   -6 (7.4%)
20 - Sweeney - eastern upstate NY   -9 (11.1%)
23 -McHugh - North country   -3 (3.7%)
24 - Open (Boehlert) - Central NY   -18 (22.2%)
25 - Walsh - Syracuse   -6 (7.4%)
26 - Reynolds - Buffalo/Rochester suburbs   -18 (22.2%)
29 - Kuhl - southern tier   -7 (8.6%)
NOTA   -2 (2.5%)
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Total Voters: 23

Author Topic: Which GOP NY House districts go Democrat?  (Read 803 times)
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jfern
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« on: October 05, 2006, 02:28:47 pm »
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2006, 03:23:10 pm »
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Right now, Democrats have been really underperforming in NY House CD polling, etc.

Barring new polls saying something different, the only two House races that look competitive right now are NY-24 (obviously) and NY-26.  In fact, I would say that NY-26 has a better chance of flipping than NY-24 does as of now.  NY-24 is a pure toss-up at this point.
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Conan
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2006, 04:34:25 pm »
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I know Boehlerts seat is going dem, and i think there could be some big surprises. Prob 2 switch at least.
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Smash255
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« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2006, 01:36:58 am »
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NY-24 and, unless things change rapidly in the Foley scandal, NY-26 are lost to the Republicans. NY-20 and NY-25 also stand a good chance of flipping, and I wouldn't rule out NY-29. The rest, I do rule out, though I wouldn't be extraordinarily surprised if a massive wave tossed the GOP out of NY-03 and NY-13.

NY 26 is very likley Dem, and I think they take NY-24 as well.  From that point on, with the exception of NY-23 the Dems could possibly take everything else.  Now they would need a rather large wave for that to happen, and I think its rather unlikley, but not entirley out of the question.  I would rate NY-03's chances a bit higher than Ny-13 though, though both are in the likley GOP camp.  NY-13 I would say ranks 8th among seats to flip, while NY-03 I would say is 5th or 6th on the list.
chances of flipping

will flip
1.NY-26 85%

probably flips, but GOP can hold
2. NY-24 60%

GOP has an edge, but Dems have a good shot
3. NY-20 45%
4. NY-29 43%

GOP likley holds it, but not safe
5. NY-25 35%
5. NY-3 35%

More than likley GOP holds, barring direct scandal Dem needs huge wave
7. NY-19 25%
8. NY-13 20%

something real major needs to go down
9. NY-23 10%

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socaldem
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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2006, 11:07:45 am »
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NY-24 and, unless things change rapidly in the Foley scandal, NY-26 are lost to the Republicans. NY-20 and NY-25 also stand a good chance of flipping, and I wouldn't rule out NY-29. The rest, I do rule out, though I wouldn't be extraordinarily surprised if a massive wave tossed the GOP out of NY-03 and NY-13.

NY 26 is very likley Dem, and I think they take NY-24 as well.  From that point on, with the exception of NY-23 the Dems could possibly take everything else.  Now they would need a rather large wave for that to happen, and I think its rather unlikley, but not entirley out of the question.  I would rate NY-03's chances a bit higher than Ny-13 though, though both are in the likley GOP camp.  NY-13 I would say ranks 8th among seats to flip, while NY-03 I would say is 5th or 6th on the list.
chances of flipping

will flip
1.NY-26 85%

probably flips, but GOP can hold
2. NY-24 60%

GOP has an edge, but Dems have a good shot
3. NY-20 45%
4. NY-29 43%

GOP likley holds it, but not safe
5. NY-25 35%
5. NY-3 35%

More than likley GOP holds, barring direct scandal Dem needs huge wave
7. NY-19 25%
8. NY-13 20%

something real major needs to go down
9. NY-23 10%



I think NY-13 definitely belongs in the bottom tier of races and I think the Dem chances in NY-19 are a little better than you indicate.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2006, 03:25:05 pm »
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If there is a God NY-19 and 20 will go Democratic. Granted I'm not much of a believer.
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As expected the wop won.

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