Bush at 33% approval rating; Democrats lead on moral values.

[MarkWarner08]

A new Newsweek polls portrays a political environment for Republicans that has gone from challenging to radioactive.

Here are some execepts of the poll:

"Fully 53 percent of Americans want the Democrats to win control of
Congress next month, including 10 percent of Republicans, compared to just 35 percent who want the GOP to retain power."

"Meanwhile, the president’s approval rating has fallen to a new all-time low for the Newsweek poll: 33 percent, down from an already anemic 36 percent in August."

"While 52 percent of Americans believe Hastert was aware of Foley’s actions and tried to cover them up, it’s part of a larger loss of faith in Republican leadership, thanks mostly to the war in Iraq."


There's more bad news. "66 percent say the war has not made America safer from terrorism (just 29 percent believe it has); and 53 percent believe it was a mistake to go to war at all, again the first time the NEWSWEEK poll has registered a majority in that camp."


Finally the Democratic Party leads the Republican Party on every single major issue -- even on moral values:

"In addition to winning—for the first time in the NEWSWEEK poll—on the question of which party is more trusted to fight the war on terror (44 to 37 percent) and moral values (42 percent to 36 percent), the Democrats now inspire more trust than the GOP on handling Iraq (47 to 34); the economy (53 to 31); health care (57 to 24); federal spending and the deficit (53 to 29); gas and oil prices (56 to 23)." and immigration (43 to 34).

[MarkWarner08]

Is there any way the GOP can turn the tide back and hold onto power? Many Conservatives seem ambivalent to their party's struggle to stay in power.

A depressed base, energized opponents and angry independents are just some of the factors the NRCC, the NRSC and the RNC are facing.

[Democratic Hawk]

Well, I would like to think that this poll does indeed prove somwhat accurate come November 9. It would be nothing short of deserved to see the GOP hanged from its own petard - that is moral values, given the way they have manipulated wedge issues to their electoral advantage in the past

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Being an optimist, I voted that the Democrats will take control of the Senate and the House

It is an optimistic prediction, but given the GOP's cash advantage, GOTV efforts, I'm not by any means confident

On a positive note, even were the GOP to crank up moral values as a means of motivating their base into voting, I'm not sure it would work - but never underestimate those known for playing, what Andrew Sullivan described as "a blinding game of deception"

Dave

[bullmoose88]

None of these...

GOP retains house and senate for 2 reasons (with smaller majorities)...

1) The old adage, "Congress sucks...but I like my congressman/woman"...still rings true...

2) A lot of these districts are drawn to the GOP's favor...some what of an edge...plus despite these horrible numbers, they're not going to get creamed in marginal races (montana is relatively close, as is Ohio...Allen leads in VA...Santorum was likely to get the short end of the stick anyways.)


What you'll probably see is, dems cream republicans in very democratic races anyways (a rout turns into a bigger one as more pissed dems vote there)...heavy GOP seats are slightly less GOP...and a slight democratic lean in marginals...which I don't think is enough to create a 1994-esque slide.

That said...the best thing for the GOP in 2008 would be to lose one house now...you need someone else to blame...losing the senate in 2001 (plus terrorism) seemed to work rather well in 02.

[MarkWarner08]

None of these...

GOP retains house and senate for 2 reasons (with smaller majorities)...

1) The old adage, "Congress sucks...but I like my congressman/woman"...still rings true...

2) A lot of these districts are drawn to the GOP's favor...some what of an edge...plus despite these horrible numbers, they're not going to get creamed in marginal races (montana is relatively close, as is Ohio...Allen leads in VA...Santorum was likely to get the short end of the stick anyways.)


What you'll probably see is, dems cream republicans in very democratic races anyways (a rout turns into a bigger one as more pissed dems vote there)...heavy GOP seats are slightly less GOP...and a slight democratic lean in marginals...which I don't think is enough to create a 1994-esque slide.

That said...the best thing for the GOP in 2008 would be to lose one house now...you need someone else to blame...losing the senate in 2001 (plus terrorism) seemed to work rather well in 02.

People throw out their congressmen in wave elections. Just see 1994 and 1974. I think 2006 is closer to 1994 than it is to 1974. In 1974, the GOP lost House seats because of one major event (Watergate). In 1994, the Democrats lost because of the Crime Bill, Hillarycare, gays in the military backlash and general disenchantment with Clinton.

The last two years, starting with Terri Schiavo, have been miserable for the GOP. IMO, the GOP will lose this election because of a thousand cuts, not one big scandal.

[Conan]

The Republicans are on a fast track down to having minorities in the 100s again. It's too bad the gerrymandering wont let them dip below 180. By this I mean over a few elections not this election specifically.

[bullmoose88]

None of these...

GOP retains house and senate for 2 reasons (with smaller majorities)...

1) The old adage, "Congress sucks...but I like my congressman/woman"...still rings true...

2) A lot of these districts are drawn to the GOP's favor...some what of an edge...plus despite these horrible numbers, they're not going to get creamed in marginal races (montana is relatively close, as is Ohio...Allen leads in VA...Santorum was likely to get the short end of the stick anyways.)


What you'll probably see is, dems cream republicans in very democratic races anyways (a rout turns into a bigger one as more pissed dems vote there)...heavy GOP seats are slightly less GOP...and a slight democratic lean in marginals...which I don't think is enough to create a 1994-esque slide.

That said...the best thing for the GOP in 2008 would be to lose one house now...you need someone else to blame...losing the senate in 2001 (plus terrorism) seemed to work rather well in 02.

The last two years, starting with Terri Schiavo, have been miserable for the GOP. IMO, the GOP will lose this election because of a thousand cuts, not one big scandal.

People still remember Terri Schiavo? I'm serious.

Meanwhile the Dow is at an all time high, gas prices are falling, no real signs of inflation so interest rates will stay flat for a little longer...this is going to dampen any negative GOP feeling (sex scandals etc)

I don't think its gonna be enough in the marginal seats for the dems to win both houses back...and I don't think they're gonna have a great shot at winning one either.

Yes yes they'll win seats and make it close...but no cigar...oh dear...an old skool reference...

The GOP had a perfect storm of factors in 94...I don't think the dems have it this time...

[Conan]

None of these...

GOP retains house and senate for 2 reasons (with smaller majorities)...

1) The old adage, "Congress sucks...but I like my congressman/woman"...still rings true...

2) A lot of these districts are drawn to the GOP's favor...some what of an edge...plus despite these horrible numbers, they're not going to get creamed in marginal races (montana is relatively close, as is Ohio...Allen leads in VA...Santorum was likely to get the short end of the stick anyways.)


What you'll probably see is, dems cream republicans in very democratic races anyways (a rout turns into a bigger one as more pissed dems vote there)...heavy GOP seats are slightly less GOP...and a slight democratic lean in marginals...which I don't think is enough to create a 1994-esque slide.

That said...the best thing for the GOP in 2008 would be to lose one house now...you need someone else to blame...losing the senate in 2001 (plus terrorism) seemed to work rather well in 02.

The last two years, starting with Terri Schiavo, have been miserable for the GOP. IMO, the GOP will lose this election because of a thousand cuts, not one big scandal.

People still remember Terri Schiavo? I'm serious.

Meanwhile the Dow is at an all time high, gas prices are falling, no real signs of inflation so interest rates will stay flat for a little longer...this is going to dampen any negative GOP feeling (sex scandals etc)

I don't think its gonna be enough in the marginal seats for the dems to win both houses back...and I don't think they're gonna have a great shot at winning one either.

Yes yes they'll win seats and make it close...but no cigar...oh dear...an old skool reference...

The GOP had a perfect storm of factors in 94...I don't think the dems have it this time...

You mean the dow has now returned to Clinton levels. The economy isnt good either and all polls show that the Dems are better with the economy and eveyone thinks that the economy stinks right now.

[bullmoose88]

None of these...

GOP retains house and senate for 2 reasons (with smaller majorities)...

1) The old adage, "Congress sucks...but I like my congressman/woman"...still rings true...

2) A lot of these districts are drawn to the GOP's favor...some what of an edge...plus despite these horrible numbers, they're not going to get creamed in marginal races (montana is relatively close, as is Ohio...Allen leads in VA...Santorum was likely to get the short end of the stick anyways.)


What you'll probably see is, dems cream republicans in very democratic races anyways (a rout turns into a bigger one as more pissed dems vote there)...heavy GOP seats are slightly less GOP...and a slight democratic lean in marginals...which I don't think is enough to create a 1994-esque slide.

That said...the best thing for the GOP in 2008 would be to lose one house now...you need someone else to blame...losing the senate in 2001 (plus terrorism) seemed to work rather well in 02.

The last two years, starting with Terri Schiavo, have been miserable for the GOP. IMO, the GOP will lose this election because of a thousand cuts, not one big scandal.

People still remember Terri Schiavo? I'm serious.

Meanwhile the Dow is at an all time high, gas prices are falling, no real signs of inflation so interest rates will stay flat for a little longer...this is going to dampen any negative GOP feeling (sex scandals etc)

I don't think its gonna be enough in the marginal seats for the dems to win both houses back...and I don't think they're gonna have a great shot at winning one either.

Yes yes they'll win seats and make it close...but no cigar...oh dear...an old skool reference...

The GOP had a perfect storm of factors in 94...I don't think the dems have it this time...

You mean the dow has now returned to Clinton levels. The economy isnt good either and all polls show that the Dems are better with the economy and eveyone thinks that the economy stinks right now.

The economy is actually doing pretty well considering at had to make up ground lost in the tech bubble burst, and 9/11. Is it great? No, but unemployment's near the natural level, the dow's making gains, oil prices are falling...the public perception numbers could be a problem, its not going to win the election for the GOP, but merely dampen some other factors.

People seem to forget the 1990s were an abnormality...end of the cold war, tech boom...

3% growth/year of GDP tends to be the average for the US, I believe we're currently growing at that rate (despite high oil prices)...this information cannot hurt the GOP, at all.

Like I said, it would be the best thing to lose one of the houses, or even both of em for the GOP...too much stagnation, not enough motivation...

but I think they're gonna hold on...and that may be a blessing in disguise for democratland

[MarkWarner08]

None of these...

GOP retains house and senate for 2 reasons (with smaller majorities)...

1) The old adage, "Congress sucks...but I like my congressman/woman"...still rings true...

2) A lot of these districts are drawn to the GOP's favor...some what of an edge...plus despite these horrible numbers, they're not going to get creamed in marginal races (montana is relatively close, as is Ohio...Allen leads in VA...Santorum was likely to get the short end of the stick anyways.)


What you'll probably see is, dems cream republicans in very democratic races anyways (a rout turns into a bigger one as more pissed dems vote there)...heavy GOP seats are slightly less GOP...and a slight democratic lean in marginals...which I don't think is enough to create a 1994-esque slide.

That said...the best thing for the GOP in 2008 would be to lose one house now...you need someone else to blame...losing the senate in 2001 (plus terrorism) seemed to work rather well in 02.

The last two years, starting with Terri Schiavo, have been miserable for the GOP. IMO, the GOP will lose this election because of a thousand cuts, not one big scandal.

People still remember Terri Schiavo? I'm serious.

Meanwhile the Dow is at an all time high, gas prices are falling, no real signs of inflation so interest rates will stay flat for a little longer...this is going to dampen any negative GOP feeling (sex scandals etc)

I don't think its gonna be enough in the marginal seats for the dems to win both houses back...and I don't think they're gonna have a great shot at winning one either.

Yes yes they'll win seats and make it close...but no cigar...oh dear...an old skool reference...

The GOP had a perfect storm of factors in 94...I don't think the dems have it this time...

You mean the dow has now returned to Clinton levels. The economy isnt good either and all polls show that the Dems are better with the economy and eveyone thinks that the economy stinks right now.

The economy is actually doing pretty well considering at had to make up ground lost in the tech bubble burst, and 9/11. Is it great? No, but unemployment's near the natural level, the dow's making gains, oil prices are falling...the public perception numbers could be a problem, its not going to win the election for the GOP, but merely dampen some other factors.

People seem to forget the 1990s were an abnormality...end of the cold war, tech boom...

3% growth/year of GDP tends to be the average for the US, I believe we're currently growing at that rate (despite high oil prices)...this information cannot hurt the GOP, at all.

Like I said, it would be the best thing to lose one of the houses, or even both of em for the GOP...too much stagnation, not enough motivation...

but I think they're gonna hold on...and that may be a blessing in disguise for democratland

You're concurring with one of my previous posts entitled "How Democrats can win by losing."
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=45322.0

[Frodo]

Democrats will take both houses of Congress -that much is clear.  What is debatable is by how much they will control the House and Senate...how large their majorities will be. 

[jacob_101]

Is there any way the GOP can turn the tide back and hold onto power? Many Conservatives seem ambivalent to their party's struggle to stay in power.

This is just my opinion of why conservatives seem ambivalent.  Generally for conservatives politics is important, but not the MOST important thing going on in their lives, which it tends to be for many Democrats.

Second, I am just not inspired to go out and vote for some of these Republicans who keep straying from being conservative at all.  While I believe they are the better choice I am not enthusiastic for voting for someone like Mark Kennedy.  Sure he is conservative but his campaign ads have included many Democratic themes like government control over pensions etc....for conservative to win they need to focus on what they believe in and not be afraid to say it.  At least then we will lose with our head held high and our pride intact.

Thirdly, I and many others on the right feel like the entire media bashes Bush, plays down the economy(which is doing well by the way), reports only negative news out of IRAQ, talks only about how many people are uninsured and asks dumb poll questions like, do you approve or disapprove of how Bush has handled gas prices?  As if he controls the price.  But Americans, uninformed blame him.  The Republicans are the only ones trying to get us drill more here and every time it gets blocked by Democrats and a handful of Republicans, Norm Coleman included.  But I at least respect him for that because he has always had that stance.

Whew...I feel better now, thanks.  It's just a bad year for Republicans and IMO, America.

[Stranger in a strange land]

The Republicans have won the last three elections by appealing  to emotional wedge issues that have little actual impact on peoples' lives. They can't appeal to moral values or homophobia this time because of the Foley scandal. They can't use terrorism or national security as effectively because of the  Dubai ports deal and the fact that Iraq is still a mess.

[Eraserhead]

They are headed toward losing both houses. The House for them is long gone now. The only question is if the Democrats have the fire power behind them to take the Senate.

[Whacker77]

Not to throw cold water on the Democrat election celebration, but I wouldn't put a whole lot of faith in a poll from Newsweek.  Their track with polling is spotty at best and I doubt Bush's approval is 33%.  Having said that, I think Democrats can easily win both the House and Senate.

[CultureKing]

Not to throw cold water on the Democrat election celebration, but I wouldn't put a whole lot of faith in a poll from Newsweek.  Their track with polling is spotty at best and I doubt Bush's approval is 33%.  Having said that, I think Democrats can easily win both the House and Senate.

I dunno, I think in the next week or so we will see a drop in bush approval ratings and generic house polls, the Foley case has only just come to light I'd expect it to continue gathering steam in the media for the next week or two.

[Conan]

Not to throw cold water on the Democrat election celebration, but I wouldn't put a whole lot of faith in a poll from Newsweek.  Their track with polling is spotty at best and I doubt Bush's approval is 33%.  Having said that, I think Democrats can easily win both the House and Senate.

I dunno, I think in the next week or so we will see a drop in bush approval ratings and generic house polls, the Foley case has only just come to light I'd expect it to continue gathering steam in the media for the next week or two.

Welcome to the forum Culture King!

[adam]

The doesn't bode well for the GOP, as stated, if they can't exploit the fear of the social left...than their chances are slim and none. I would be very nervouse if I was a Republican.

[Lincoln Republican]

If the Republicans cannot reverse this ominous trend, and soon, they are doomed in 2006.

And this from a loyal Republican.

[MarkWarner08]

If the Republicans cannot reverse this ominous trend, and soon, they are doomed in 2006.

And this from a loyal Republican.

Good to hear -- especially from a loyal establishment Republican.

[Whacker77]

Yes, it must be music to a Democrat's ear to hear gloom and doom Republicans ready to throw in the towel.  It makes me so proud to be a Republican.

[Smash255]

None of these...

GOP retains house and senate for 2 reasons (with smaller majorities)...

1) The old adage, "Congress sucks...but I like my congressman/woman"...still rings true...

2) A lot of these districts are drawn to the GOP's favor...some what of an edge...plus despite these horrible numbers, they're not going to get creamed in marginal races (montana is relatively close, as is Ohio...Allen leads in VA...Santorum was likely to get the short end of the stick anyways.)


What you'll probably see is, dems cream republicans in very democratic races anyways (a rout turns into a bigger one as more pissed dems vote there)...heavy GOP seats are slightly less GOP...and a slight democratic lean in marginals...which I don't think is enough to create a 1994-esque slide.

That said...the best thing for the GOP in 2008 would be to lose one house now...you need someone else to blame...losing the senate in 2001 (plus terrorism) seemed to work rather well in 02.

The last two years, starting with Terri Schiavo, have been miserable for the GOP. IMO, the GOP will lose this election because of a thousand cuts, not one big scandal.

People still remember Terri Schiavo? I'm serious.

Meanwhile the Dow is at an all time high, gas prices are falling, no real signs of inflation so interest rates will stay flat for a little longer...this is going to dampen any negative GOP feeling (sex scandals etc)

I don't think its gonna be enough in the marginal seats for the dems to win both houses back...and I don't think they're gonna have a great shot at winning one either.

Yes yes they'll win seats and make it close...but no cigar...oh dear...an old skool reference...

The GOP had a perfect storm of factors in 94...I don't think the dems have it this time...

You mean the dow has now returned to Clinton levels. The economy isnt good either and all polls show that the Dems are better with the economy and eveyone thinks that the economy stinks right now.

The economy is actually doing pretty well considering at had to make up ground lost in the tech bubble burst, and 9/11. Is it great? No, but unemployment's near the natural level, the dow's making gains, oil prices are falling...the public perception numbers could be a problem, its not going to win the election for the GOP, but merely dampen some other factors.

People seem to forget the 1990s were an abnormality...end of the cold war, tech boom...

3% growth/year of GDP tends to be the average for the US, I believe we're currently growing at that rate (despite high oil prices)...this information cannot hurt the GOP, at all.

Like I said, it would be the best thing to lose one of the houses, or even both of em for the GOP...too much stagnation, not enough motivation...

but I think they're gonna hold on...and that may be a blessing in disguise for democratland

The whole thing with the economy its a joke.  Its doing well for those at the top, but those in the middle are really getting squeezed.  The Unemployment number doesn't match what is truly gong on, because many truly unemployed people are not counted.   We just came of very lackluster job creattion, created 100k fewer jobs than needed to keep up with population growth

[MarkWarner08]

None of these...

GOP retains house and senate for 2 reasons (with smaller majorities)...

1) The old adage, "Congress sucks...but I like my congressman/woman"...still rings true...

2) A lot of these districts are drawn to the GOP's favor...some what of an edge...plus despite these horrible numbers, they're not going to get creamed in marginal races (montana is relatively close, as is Ohio...Allen leads in VA...Santorum was likely to get the short end of the stick anyways.)


What you'll probably see is, dems cream republicans in very democratic races anyways (a rout turns into a bigger one as more pissed dems vote there)...heavy GOP seats are slightly less GOP...and a slight democratic lean in marginals...which I don't think is enough to create a 1994-esque slide.

That said...the best thing for the GOP in 2008 would be to lose one house now...you need someone else to blame...losing the senate in 2001 (plus terrorism) seemed to work rather well in 02.

The last two years, starting with Terri Schiavo, have been miserable for the GOP. IMO, the GOP will lose this election because of a thousand cuts, not one big scandal.

People still remember Terri Schiavo? I'm serious.

Meanwhile the Dow is at an all time high, gas prices are falling, no real signs of inflation so interest rates will stay flat for a little longer...this is going to dampen any negative GOP feeling (sex scandals etc)

I don't think its gonna be enough in the marginal seats for the dems to win both houses back...and I don't think they're gonna have a great shot at winning one either.

Yes yes they'll win seats and make it close...but no cigar...oh dear...an old skool reference...

The GOP had a perfect storm of factors in 94...I don't think the dems have it this time...

You mean the dow has now returned to Clinton levels. The economy isnt good either and all polls show that the Dems are better with the economy and eveyone thinks that the economy stinks right now.

The economy is actually doing pretty well considering at had to make up ground lost in the tech bubble burst, and 9/11. Is it great? No, but unemployment's near the natural level, the dow's making gains, oil prices are falling...the public perception numbers could be a problem, its not going to win the election for the GOP, but merely dampen some other factors.

People seem to forget the 1990s were an abnormality...end of the cold war, tech boom...

3% growth/year of GDP tends to be the average for the US, I believe we're currently growing at that rate (despite high oil prices)...this information cannot hurt the GOP, at all.

Like I said, it would be the best thing to lose one of the houses, or even both of em for the GOP...too much stagnation, not enough motivation...

but I think they're gonna hold on...and that may be a blessing in disguise for democratland

The whole thing with the economy its a joke.  Its doing well for those at the top, but those in the middle are really getting squeezed.  The Unemployment number doesn't match what is truly gong on, because many truly unemployed people are not counted.   We just came of very lackluster job creattion, created 100k fewer jobs than needed to keep up with population growth

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Did all of the Republicans in the forum know that the only sector of the U.S economy to actually "create jobs" in the last 6 years has been the health care sector.

Bush's rapid acceleration of free trade has hurt many American workers. I'm not a protectionist -- I love free trade, but I really love fair trade. What we need to do is force China to raise the value of the Yuan, increase math and science funding for K-12 and create job retraining programs for out of work blue collar workers.

[opebo]

Meanwhile the Dow is at an all time high,

Hah, it took it the entire Bush presidency to get back to a dozen points higher than it was half a decade ago.  Not a good thing.  Besides, people don't judge their economic well being by the stock market - most workers are in absolutely horrible condition financially.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No, people are feeling poor because of poor wages, not because of anything to do with interests rates.  The gas prices just reminded them how little they make, and $2.00 a gallon isn't enough of an improvement to make them pro-GOP.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Really?  How on earth could 1994's factors trump those of 2006?  I don't actually recall anything special occuring back then..