Who will be the House GOP leader in the 110th Congress?

[Mr. Morden]

OK, I was wondering if everyone could vote twice in this poll.  Vote both for who you think will be elected Speaker of the House in the next Congress if the GOP retains their House majority, *and* who you think will be House Minority Leader if the Democrats win control of the House.  In other words, who do you think will be the highest ranking House Republican under both scenarios?  Not "who do you want" to be GOP leader, but who you think *will* be leader.

For myself, I'd have to pick "someone else" in both categories.  Specifically, Mary Bono.

Just kidding.  Actually, I'm going to have to go with John Boehner in both categories.  I just think that Hastert has lost the confidence of the Republican caucus.  Even if it turns out that he didn't know anything about Mark Foley's problems until recently, politically, he has handled this situation very badly, and I don't see the caucus as being ready to vote him back in.  If they do keep their majority, it will be by a slim margin, and it will only take a few Republicans refusing to back him in order to prevent him from running for Speaker again (as happened with Gingrich in 1998).  While if the Democrats win the House, Hastert will get some of the blame, and the GOP will dump him.  I don't think Hastert will resign before the election, as it would be seen as some kind of admission of guilt, but I just don't see him keeping his job after the election.

Boehner has his own problems, but I don't think they're nearly as bad as Hastert's.  I give the edge to Boehner, even though I could also see it going to someone else.  Though no one else stands out from the pack, so he wins by default.

[Mr. Morden]

Crap, I screwed up the wording of one of the options.  Specifically, the one about Hastert as minority leader if the Dems win the House.  But you get the idea.  I assume everyone knows that that should read "Dennis Hastert, House Minority Leader if the Dems win the House".

Unfortunately, I don't know how to fix the wording of poll answers.

[Adlai Stevenson]

John Shadegg will become Republican Minority Leader. 

[MAS117]

Barring that Hastert doesnt resign before the next Congress, Hastert will continue to be Speaker if the GOP holds the House. If not, I doubt he will be Minority Leader, I'm sure Boehner will take that job.

[nclib]

I'd say Hastert would remain Speaker and Boehner would become Minority Leader.

BTW, it looks like a lot of people only voted for one option.

[Mr. Morden]

Yeah, I figured a poll like this might confuse some people, and they'd only vote for one option.  But the alternative was to do two separate polls, and I didn't really feel like doing that.  It makes more sense to keep the discussion for both scenarios in the same thread.

[Frodo]

John Boehner in both cases -House Speaker Dennis Hastert will lose his job (if not his seat) by this coming January, and will (or, at least, should) not be considered for the Speakership if and when Republicans reclaim the House in 2008, given the many scandals that occured under his watch, not to mention his failure to respond appopriately with regard to the Mark Foley pedophile scandal. 

[Conan]

GOP Hold - Hastert
DEM Win - Boehner