kerry's favorable/unfavorable rating (attention: vorlon)

[WalterMitty]

id like a good analysis on kerry's favorable/unfavorable ratings, and how theyve changed since he wrapped up the nomination.

[The Vorlon]

One poll, BTW, I like to use on this type of question is PEW.

Pew is absolutely dead stable in their methodology, and use a nice big sample size.  (They sample in a way that tends to slide just a tad "left" (4 ish %) but it is a very stable and predictable "tad")

Here is an interesting graphic (from the May PEW - before the Reagan Death), comparing the one word answers people offered to discribe Kerry:



In the early survey "Honest" was the single most offered reply on Kerry - in the later survey not a single person offered honest to discribe Kerry. (!)

Read the February list, and then read the May list....

Democrats always complaign about the "republican attack machine" - in terms of personal impressions about Kerry, the "machine" has sure done it's job..

The Bush "flip-flop" offensive has clearly worked.

In the last PEW Bush favorable/Unfavorables (NOT Job approval but PERSONAL approval/disapproval) were:

Positive = 951/1806 => 52.65%
Negative = 800/1806 => 44.30%

Net Rating = +8.35

For Kerry these numbers were:

Positive = 895/1806 => 49.55%
Negative = 763/1806 => 42.25%

Net Rating = +7.30%

For Bush however, the favorablility was based (65% to 26%) on personal Charateristics (honesty, likeability, etc), rather than policy.

For Kerry, only 46% came from "personal" charateristics.

Bush's Unfavorables are also policy driven - (58/34 policy driven when unfavorable)

While Kerry's unfavorables are again driven by personal characteristics. (60% to 19%) - When folks dislike Kerry it's personal, not policy - the opposite of Bush.

People just simply like Bush more than Kerry as a person.

Kerry is doing well in policy areas, but policy alone does not get a vote, the voter has to, at least a little, "like" you.

Because Bush's personal likeability is so high, he really also gets the benefit of the doubt on issues too.  Bad news has less effect on Bush because people like him.  Good news has a disproportionately large positive effect for Bush, cause they do like him.

The Dems know this, which is why they are so focus on "soft and fuzzy" with their Kerry ads - the have to get Kerry's personal likeability/trust worth levels up.

Kerry still has a long way to go, gets a convention, gets to pick a running mate, etc... But as of now, on a personal level, voters have not warmed up to Kerry.

Up till now the GOP has done a great job defining the PERSON (in a largely negative way) while the Dems, as a PERSON have not laid a glove on Bush yet.

The GOP still has not brought out the "big guns" on defining Kerry on personal values related policy matters yet either (gun control, capital punishment, gay marraige, etc) - There is a lot damage the GOP has yet to do in this area as well.

Finally, since people already like Bush (at least Independants and republicans do) Bush has tactical flexibility on issues.  Bush can do things that might "piss off his base" and not get hurt because they still like him as a person.

Kerry, by contrast, because his favorables as so policy driven, lacks this tactical flexibility.

Americans have to "live" with a president for 4 years - they almost always pick the guy the "like" the most.

Untill/Unless this changes Bush has a built in advantage.  I think Bush's personal likeability is why, after Iraq, the economy, prison abuse scandal, etc, he is up a few % and not down 10...

[CARLHAYDEN]

Excellent posting!!!

These are part of the 'internals' to which I previously refered.

The way I count things, Kerry went from an almost four to one positive to negative rating (with almost no neutral), to a better than two to one negative to positive rating, with neutral ratings greater than his positives!

The negative descriptions fall into four categories:

First, those familiar with his record prior to 2004 are inclined to describe him as a 'liberal.'  Given that his record is unknown to most of the national electorate, I expect this to expand as his record is revealed.

Second, Kerry has an 'upper-class' style which often comes off a 'arrogant,' whether it is or is not (I personally cannot say which is true, or whether both are partially true).  I do know that he rubs 'joe lunchbucket' Democrats the wrong way.

Third, his attempt to run away from his record has resulted in such terms as "phony, politician, liar, dishonest, wishy-washy and untrustworthy."

Fourth, his approach to the war on terrorism has largely resulted in the "indecisive and weak" descriptions.