My Senate predictions

[A18]

Dem 50, Rep 49, Ind 1  (If this is wrong, kill Frodo)

[Frodo]

That would be 49 Republicans, 49 Democrats, and 2 independents (though since Lieberman is all too likely going to redeclare himself a Democrat once he wins re-election, Democrats will therefore have a 50-49-1 majority). 
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You're welcome, BTW. 

[Democratic Hawk]

I don't think that Senate prediction map will be far wrong at all

Dave

[DownWithTheLeft]

A Zogby, an FDU, and a inside of the MOE poll for Menendez, and everyone is giving up on the obvious winner Tom Kean Jr.

Once Foley blows over and his father comes to the rescue, Kean will win quite comfortably

[Secretary Polnut]

Actually that's my prediction map also.

Down... this is a serious question.

Let's just say as a hypothetical... Kean doesn't win. What will your response be?

[Conan]

A Zogby, an FDU, and a inside of the MOE poll for Menendez, and everyone is giving up on the obvious winner Tom Kean Jr.

Once Foley blows over and his father comes to the rescue, Kean will win quite comfortably

Menendez obviously holds the lead now and you know it. He is outside the margin of error in the FDU poll too

[DownWithTheLeft]

A Zogby, an FDU, and a inside of the MOE poll for Menendez, and everyone is giving up on the obvious winner Tom Kean Jr.

Once Foley blows over and his father comes to the rescue, Kean will win quite comfortably

Menendez obviously holds the lead now and you know it. He is outside the margin of error in the FDU poll too

O, big deal, one poll after the Foley scandal, that is actually sad, Kean is still the slight favorite, just less than he was before, this is not an argument worth having b/c you have no idea what your talking about

[poughies]

I wouldn't feel half as confident as i did 2 weeks ago that Kean will win....

[© Tweed the Younger]

Kean is still the slight favorite, just less than he was before

Wrong.  InTrade has it at 60-40 Menendez-Kean.

[Conan]

A Zogby, an FDU, and a inside of the MOE poll for Menendez, and everyone is giving up on the obvious winner Tom Kean Jr.

Once Foley blows over and his father comes to the rescue, Kean will win quite comfortably

Menendez obviously holds the lead now and you know it. He is outside the margin of error in the FDU poll too

O, big deal, one poll after the Foley scandal, that is actually sad, Kean is still the slight favorite, just less than he was before, this is not an argument worth having b/c you have no idea what your talking about

I know my state and you dont. I have an idea what I am talking about because I base what I say on fact and experience. It's something that conservatives dont undertand, life and fact. The foley scandal has no effect and it should actually help kean as he was the 1st rep in the country to call for his resignation.  Now I would appreciate it if we could have intelligent conversations where you dont have to go low enough to say, oh no your just dumb, but base the conversation on facts and not ignore the real issue.

[auburntiger]

Ok, this how Nov. 7 will go: Senate, House, and Governors



Senate: 50-48-2 GOP majority, but it's really 50-50 b/c the 2 IND will vote DEM



Governors: 26-24 DEM

KEY: >50% = party gain
        >30% = party hold
        >90% = IND

On the house projections:


218-217 Democrat

KEY = >30% = gain of 1 seats
          >50% = gain of 2
          >70% = gain of 3

Well that's my one-month-left-til-Doom's-Day prediction for Tuesday November 7, 2006 In the Year of Our Lord

[DownWithTheLeft]

Actually that's my prediction map also.

Down... this is a serious question.

Let's just say as a hypothetical... Kean doesn't win. What will your response be?

I will be in shock and probably think about leaving my state is it will become the worst in the nation.  Any state that could elect someone so corrupt, although I guess that's the reason we lose more ppl than we gained last year

[Conan]

Actually that's my prediction map also.

Down... this is a serious question.

Let's just say as a hypothetical... Kean doesn't win. What will your response be?

I will be in shock and probably think about leaving my state is it will become the worst in the nation.  Any state that could elect someone so corrupt, although I guess that's the reason we lose more ppl than we gained last year

Apperently PA is better, so you might want to start looking at some houses.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Actually that's my prediction map also.

Down... this is a serious question.

Let's just say as a hypothetical... Kean doesn't win. What will your response be?

I will be in shock and probably think about leaving my state is it will become the worst in the nation.  Any state that could elect someone so corrupt, although I guess that's the reason we lose more ppl than we gained last year

Apperently PA is better, so you might want to start looking at some houses.

If in some strange turn of events he loses, I just might, but UT is a much better option

[Conan]

Actually that's my prediction map also.

Down... this is a serious question.

Let's just say as a hypothetical... Kean doesn't win. What will your response be?

I will be in shock and probably think about leaving my state is it will become the worst in the nation.  Any state that could elect someone so corrupt, although I guess that's the reason we lose more ppl than we gained last year

Apperently PA is better, so you might want to start looking at some houses.

If in some strange turn of events he loses, I just might, but UT is a much better option

It would be a better political move to move to PA. You just be a "vote" in the bucket in Utah while in PA your vote would count more.

[Deano963]

Actually that's my prediction map also.

Down... this is a serious question.

Let's just say as a hypothetical... Kean doesn't win. What will your response be?

I will be in shock and probably think about leaving my state is it will become the worst in the nation.  Any state that could elect someone so corrupt, although I guess that's the reason we lose more ppl than we gained last year

Apperently PA is better, so you might want to start looking at some houses.

Just please, Conan, don't send him to Ohio. We already have more delusional, incompetent and corrupt republicans in this state than you can shake a stick at.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Actually that's my prediction map also.

Down... this is a serious question.

Let's just say as a hypothetical... Kean doesn't win. What will your response be?

I will be in shock and probably think about leaving my state is it will become the worst in the nation.  Any state that could elect someone so corrupt, although I guess that's the reason we lose more ppl than we gained last year

Apperently PA is better, so you might want to start looking at some houses.

Just please, Conan, don't send him to Ohio. We already have more delusional, incompetent and corrupt republicans in this state than you can shake a stick at.

What in the world makes me delusional, incompetent or corrupt?  Please don't come to NJ w/already have enough blame-throwing, name-calling, Democratic hacks

[Deano963]

Actually that's my prediction map also.

Down... this is a serious question.

Let's just say as a hypothetical... Kean doesn't win. What will your response be?

I will be in shock and probably think about leaving my state is it will become the worst in the nation.  Any state that could elect someone so corrupt, although I guess that's the reason we lose more ppl than we gained last year

Apperently PA is better, so you might want to start looking at some houses.

Just please, Conan, don't send him to Ohio. We already have more delusional, incompetent and corrupt republicans in this state than you can shake a stick at.

What in the world makes me delusional, incompetent or corrupt?  Please don't come to NJ w/already have enough blame-throwing, name-calling, Democratic hacks

Good thing I have no desire to come to NJ, as Ohio is a much better state and we would never serisouly consider electing someone who is dumber than a box of rocks simply b/c he has a famous last name.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Actually that's my prediction map also.

Down... this is a serious question.

Let's just say as a hypothetical... Kean doesn't win. What will your response be?

I will be in shock and probably think about leaving my state is it will become the worst in the nation.  Any state that could elect someone so corrupt, although I guess that's the reason we lose more ppl than we gained last year

Apperently PA is better, so you might want to start looking at some houses.

Just please, Conan, don't send him to Ohio. We already have more delusional, incompetent and corrupt republicans in this state than you can shake a stick at.

What in the world makes me delusional, incompetent or corrupt?  Please don't come to NJ w/already have enough blame-throwing, name-calling, Democratic hacks

Good thing I have no desire to come to NJ, as Ohio is a much better state and we would never serisouly consider electing someone who is dumber than a box of rocks simply b/c he has a famous last name.

I would like to prove to me that Tom Kean Jr is "dumber than a box of rocks", of course you will not be able to and my point will be proven

[Conan]

Actually that's my prediction map also.

Down... this is a serious question.

Let's just say as a hypothetical... Kean doesn't win. What will your response be?

I will be in shock and probably think about leaving my state is it will become the worst in the nation.  Any state that could elect someone so corrupt, although I guess that's the reason we lose more ppl than we gained last year

Apperently PA is better, so you might want to start looking at some houses.

Just please, Conan, don't send him to Ohio. We already have more delusional, incompetent and corrupt republicans in this state than you can shake a stick at.

What in the world makes me delusional, incompetent or corrupt?  Please don't come to NJ w/already have enough blame-throwing, name-calling, Democratic hacks

Good thing I have no desire to come to NJ, as Ohio is a much better state and we would never serisouly consider electing someone who is dumber than a box of rocks simply b/c he has a famous last name.

I would like to prove to me that Tom Kean Jr is "dumber than a box of rocks", of course you will not be able to and my point will be proven

Go to wcbstv.com and watch the debate and see for yourself. He even makes up words like Bush.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Actually that's my prediction map also.

Down... this is a serious question.

Let's just say as a hypothetical... Kean doesn't win. What will your response be?

I will be in shock and probably think about leaving my state is it will become the worst in the nation.  Any state that could elect someone so corrupt, although I guess that's the reason we lose more ppl than we gained last year

Apperently PA is better, so you might want to start looking at some houses.

Just please, Conan, don't send him to Ohio. We already have more delusional, incompetent and corrupt republicans in this state than you can shake a stick at.

What in the world makes me delusional, incompetent or corrupt?  Please don't come to NJ w/already have enough blame-throwing, name-calling, Democratic hacks

Good thing I have no desire to come to NJ, as Ohio is a much better state and we would never serisouly consider electing someone who is dumber than a box of rocks simply b/c he has a famous last name.

I would like to prove to me that Tom Kean Jr is "dumber than a box of rocks", of course you will not be able to and my point will be proven

Go to wcbstv.com and watch the debate and see for yourself. He even makes up words like Bush.

That makes him inarticulate which I acknowledge, not dumb, there is quite a difference

[BushKenya]

I think whoever is majority leader, whether it be Mitch McConnell of Kentucky for the Republicans, or Harry Reid of Nevada for the Democrats, will have the slimmest majority that a party can have.  I'm thinking Dick Cheney may have to break a lot of ties these last two years.  The Democrats will have no more than a 1-2 seat majority and the Republicans will have no more than a 3-seat majority.

Earlier I gave the Democrats a 30% chance of retaking the Senate.  Now, because of Mark Foley, I give them a 50% chance.

In the House, I think the GOP could easily free fall and lose about 25-30 seats and give the Democrats an even bigger majority than previously expected.

As for New Jersey, I am pulling for Kean ever so slightly, and I know, as Conan probably knows, that it will be a close, hard-fought fight for the next 4 weeks.  Whoever wins won't win by much.  I just hope whoever the loser is gracefully concedes and doesn't create a rucus and try to demean the new Senator.

[Conan]

Actually that's my prediction map also.

Down... this is a serious question.

Let's just say as a hypothetical... Kean doesn't win. What will your response be?

I will be in shock and probably think about leaving my state is it will become the worst in the nation.  Any state that could elect someone so corrupt, although I guess that's the reason we lose more ppl than we gained last year

Apperently PA is better, so you might want to start looking at some houses.

Just please, Conan, don't send him to Ohio. We already have more delusional, incompetent and corrupt republicans in this state than you can shake a stick at.

What in the world makes me delusional, incompetent or corrupt?  Please don't come to NJ w/already have enough blame-throwing, name-calling, Democratic hacks

Good thing I have no desire to come to NJ, as Ohio is a much better state and we would never serisouly consider electing someone who is dumber than a box of rocks simply b/c he has a famous last name.

Ohio is nothing compared to NJ, dont bash NJ. Oh yea, didnt ohio just elect Bush in 04? Hahaha I think you broke the rule you just wrote.

[Conan]

I think whoever is majority leader, whether it be Mitch McConnell of Kentucky for the Republicans, or Harry Reid of Nevada for the Democrats, will have the slimmest majority that a party can have.  I'm thinking Dick Cheney may have to break a lot of ties these last two years.  The Democrats will have no more than a 1-2 seat majority and the Republicans will have no more than a 3-seat majority.

Earlier I gave the Democrats a 30% chance of retaking the Senate.  Now, because of Mark Foley, I give them a 50% chance.

In the House, I think the GOP could easily free fall and lose about 25-30 seats and give the Democrats an even bigger majority than previously expected.

As for New Jersey, I am pulling for Kean ever so slightly, and I know, as Conan probably knows, that it will be a close, hard-fought fight for the next 4 weeks.  Whoever wins won't win by much.  I just hope whoever the loser is gracefully concedes and doesn't create a rucus and try to demean the new Senator.

If Kean wins, the media will attack him for every vote he takes and so will the political leaders. It will be very amusing.

[Deano963]

Actually that's my prediction map also.

Down... this is a serious question.

Let's just say as a hypothetical... Kean doesn't win. What will your response be?

I will be in shock and probably think about leaving my state is it will become the worst in the nation.  Any state that could elect someone so corrupt, although I guess that's the reason we lose more ppl than we gained last year

Apperently PA is better, so you might want to start looking at some houses.

Just please, Conan, don't send him to Ohio. We already have more delusional, incompetent and corrupt republicans in this state than you can shake a stick at.

What in the world makes me delusional, incompetent or corrupt?  Please don't come to NJ w/already have enough blame-throwing, name-calling, Democratic hacks

Good thing I have no desire to come to NJ, as Ohio is a much better state and we would never serisouly consider electing someone who is dumber than a box of rocks simply b/c he has a famous last name.

Ohio is nothing compared to NJ, dont bash NJ. Oh yea, didnt ohio just elect Bush in 04? Hahaha I think you broke the rule you just wrote.

No, I didn't. Bush isn't dumb. He may the most right-wing extremist President ever, and his policies are utter failures, but he is not dumb. People who think that Bush is dumb, especially Democrats, are seriously underestimating him. He knows how to use the bully pulpit of the Presidency effectively and how to push his agenda even when he is not popular.

 Kean, on the other hand, is dumb, as you showed with the video of him from the debates.

And your state has nothing on Ohio, btw.