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Author Topic: Pennsylvania: Casey would have to say macaca to lose now (rasmussen)  (Read 28119 times)
poughies
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« on: October 09, 2006, 11:01:05 am »
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Pennsylvania: Senator Rick Santorum (R) now trails 50% to 37% in the latest Rasmussen Reports survey. When leaners are added in, Bob Casey, Jr. (D) is ahead 52%to 39%. Data and Article Coming Later. Over the summer, Santorum was gaining ground, but his momentum has stopped. He had closed the gap to eight points by late summer, but trailed by ten in our last poll. When this data is released to the public, we will shift our ranking of the race from "Leans Democrat" to "Democrat"  in our Senate Balance of Power summary. This once again confirms Santorum's status as the nation's most vulnerable incumbent. No Democratic incumbents are trailing at this time and no other campaign involving a Republican incumbent is rated weaker than "Leans Democrat."
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adam
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« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2006, 11:21:43 am »
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Looks like this is the end of Senator Dog Sex. Good riddance.
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This is merely a polite notice.


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« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2006, 11:23:20 am »
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I honestly don't know which of the two is worse.
No way would I ever vote for either of them.
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« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2006, 12:10:36 pm »
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Santorum doesn't even have a month left. He had the momentum and a chance for a comeback about a month ago, but not anymore. I have no doubt the Santorum Will Win Brigade will be here now saying he'll still pull off an amazing comeback, but that's been said for the past few months, and he even had his shot before, and blew it.

I honestly don't know which of the two is worse.

Then you're an idiot.
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« Reply #4 on: October 09, 2006, 12:16:25 pm »
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Pennsylvania: Senator Rick Santorum (R) now trails 50% to 37% in the latest Rasmussen Reports survey. When leaners are added in, Bob Casey, Jr. (D) is ahead 52%to 39%. Data and Article Coming Later. Over the summer, Santorum was gaining ground, but his momentum has stopped. He had closed the gap to eight points by late summer, but trailed by ten in our last poll. When this data is released to the public, we will shift our ranking of the race from "Leans Democrat" to "Democrat"  in our Senate Balance of Power summary. This once again confirms Santorum's status as the nation's most vulnerable incumbent. No Democratic incumbents are trailing at this time and no other campaign involving a Republican incumbent is rated weaker than "Leans Democrat."

Link?  This is great news, but I'd rather have a source so I can more easily believe it. 
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« Reply #5 on: October 09, 2006, 12:19:46 pm »
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I honestly don't know which of the two is worse.
No way would I ever vote for either of them.

Casey isn't that great, but come on you're not serious?  This is Rick Santorum "man on dog".
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« Reply #6 on: October 09, 2006, 12:25:48 pm »
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Its in the premium section, but here is the link to  real clear politics that has it listed: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/latestpolls/
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« Reply #7 on: October 09, 2006, 12:32:14 pm »
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The final result will be within 2% either way, you can quote me on that.

These polls don't reflect the reality of the situation.

1) Casey has no ground organization to speak of.  Santorum has spent the last year and a half building one.

2) Casey still refuses to debate Santorum, and it is gonna generate possitive press.

In fact, tomorrow, Santorum is coming here to Erie for a Press Conference where he will be asked questions by a panel of three journalists... hmmm... wait you say, this sounds like a debate format... well, it is.  That's because it was supposed to be a debate and Casey begged off at the last minute.

There will be two podiums on the stage... Santorum's... and the empty one that Casey was supposed to be standing at... I wonder what kinda press that is going to generate.

3) Casey's lead is soft, 20% of it is based on name recongnition alone.

4) Undecideds are gonna break solidly for Santorum, because if you haven't jumped on the Casey band wagon by now, you never will.
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« Reply #8 on: October 09, 2006, 12:35:43 pm »
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The final result will be within 2% either way, you can quote me on that.

These polls don't reflect the reality of the situation.

1) Casey has no ground organization to speak of.  Santorum has spent the last year and a half building one.

2) Casey still refuses to debate Santorum, and it is gonna generate possitive press.

In fact, tomorrow, Santorum is coming here to Erie for a Press Conference where he will be asked questions by a panel of three journalists... hmmm... wait you say, this sounds like a debate format... well, it is.  That's because it was supposed to be a debate and Casey begged off at the last minute.

There will be two podiums on the stage... Santorum's... and the empty one that Casey was supposed to be standing at... I wonder what kinda press that is going to generate.

3) Casey's lead is soft, 20% of it is based on name recongnition alone.

4) Undecideds are gonna break solidly for Santorum, because if you haven't jumped on the Casey band wagon by now, you never will.

Did Mark Kennedy tell you that?
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« Reply #9 on: October 09, 2006, 12:37:54 pm »
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Yea It is actually too bad that we played it safe with Casey. We could have had a more progressive dem and win.
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« Reply #10 on: October 09, 2006, 12:39:12 pm »
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Yea It is actually too bad that we played it safe with Casey. We could have had a more progressive dem and win.

There's a good chance Casey will be out of there and in the Governor's mansion in less than a term anyway, we should get someone better eventually.
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« Reply #11 on: October 09, 2006, 12:43:42 pm »
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The final result will be within 2% either way, you can quote me on that.

These polls don't reflect the reality of the situation.

1) Casey has no ground organization to speak of.  Santorum has spent the last year and a half building one.

2) Casey still refuses to debate Santorum, and it is gonna generate possitive press.

In fact, tomorrow, Santorum is coming here to Erie for a Press Conference where he will be asked questions by a panel of three journalists... hmmm... wait you say, this sounds like a debate format... well, it is.  That's because it was supposed to be a debate and Casey begged off at the last minute.

There will be two podiums on the stage... Santorum's... and the empty one that Casey was supposed to be standing at... I wonder what kinda press that is going to generate.

3) Casey's lead is soft, 20% of it is based on name recongnition alone.

4) Undecideds are gonna break solidly for Santorum, because if you haven't jumped on the Casey band wagon by now, you never will.

Did Mark Kennedy tell you that?

I was acctually just about to change that seat to a Dem Lean
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« Reply #12 on: October 09, 2006, 12:47:41 pm »
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I don't think Santorum can pull this off. Not even with a well-organized GOTV effort. If a GOTV effort did not pull an upset for Bush in PA., it will not do so for Santorum either.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2006, 12:52:23 pm by ucscgaldamez »Logged
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« Reply #13 on: October 09, 2006, 12:58:39 pm »
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It'll be closer than the polls show on the day... that said, it's Casey race to lose as of today.

Casey has a strong Dem organisation in the east and west of the state and Rendell very likley re-election (potentially by a wide margin) should provide a clear win for Casey in November... but we'll see.   
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« Reply #14 on: October 09, 2006, 01:51:39 pm »
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It'll be closer than the polls show on the day... that said, it's Casey race to lose as of today.

Casey has a strong Dem organisation in the east and west of the state and Rendell very likley re-election (potentially by a wide margin) should provide a clear win for Casey in November... but we'll see.   

Interesting theory... however, I think that no real race for the governorship, lack of organization and the fact that Rendell doesn't support Casey will mean that Democrat turnout will probably be lower, as more people are going to see the race as a run away.
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« Reply #15 on: October 09, 2006, 02:17:18 pm »
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The final result will be within 2% either way, you can quote me on that.

These polls don't reflect the reality of the situation.

1) Casey has no ground organization to speak of.  Santorum has spent the last year and a half building one.

2) Casey still refuses to debate Santorum, and it is gonna generate possitive press.

In fact, tomorrow, Santorum is coming here to Erie for a Press Conference where he will be asked questions by a panel of three journalists... hmmm... wait you say, this sounds like a debate format... well, it is.  That's because it was supposed to be a debate and Casey begged off at the last minute.

There will be two podiums on the stage... Santorum's... and the empty one that Casey was supposed to be standing at... I wonder what kinda press that is going to generate.

3) Casey's lead is soft, 20% of it is based on name recongnition alone.

4) Undecideds are gonna break solidly for Santorum, because if you haven't jumped on the Casey band wagon by now, you never will.

Did Mark Kennedy tell you that?

I was acctually just about to change that seat to a Dem Lean

Good, but I tend to trust myself over anyone who actually thought Kennedy was at least a half-decent candidate.
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« Reply #16 on: October 09, 2006, 02:27:25 pm »
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Yea It is actually too bad that we played it safe with Casey. We could have had a more progressive dem and win.

No, you really couldn't have. Casey's support among those in the middle is based on positive name recognition, something a Hoeffel or Hafer wouldn't have had.
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« Reply #17 on: October 09, 2006, 02:38:28 pm »
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Time for the GOP to cut the funding here and instead try to save DeWine, Allen, Corker, and Talent.
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« Reply #18 on: October 09, 2006, 02:44:02 pm »
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Yea It is actually too bad that we played it safe with Casey. We could have had a more progressive dem and win.

No, you really couldn't have. Casey's support among those in the middle is based on positive name recognition, something a Hoeffel or Hafer wouldn't have had.
The national climate and the huge dislike of Santorum would have given Ted Kennedy a Senate Seat here.
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« Reply #19 on: October 09, 2006, 02:45:49 pm »
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The final result will be within 2% either way, you can quote me on that.

These polls don't reflect the reality of the situation.

1) Casey has no ground organization to speak of.  Santorum has spent the last year and a half building one.

2) Casey still refuses to debate Santorum, and it is gonna generate possitive press.

In fact, tomorrow, Santorum is coming here to Erie for a Press Conference where he will be asked questions by a panel of three journalists... hmmm... wait you say, this sounds like a debate format... well, it is.  That's because it was supposed to be a debate and Casey begged off at the last minute.

There will be two podiums on the stage... Santorum's... and the empty one that Casey was supposed to be standing at... I wonder what kinda press that is going to generate.

3) Casey's lead is soft, 20% of it is based on name recongnition alone.

4) Undecideds are gonna break solidly for Santorum, because if you haven't jumped on the Casey band wagon by now, you never will.

Did Mark Kennedy tell you that?

I was acctually just about to change that seat to a Dem Lean

Good, but I tend to trust myself over anyone who actually thought Kennedy was at least a half-decent candidate.

And I tend to trust the judgement of someone who is in state over that of someone who is out of state... that being said, you have the right-up on me in Minnesota and I woudl trust that you would believe the same for me in PA
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« Reply #20 on: October 09, 2006, 03:50:40 pm »
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There is another poll that disputes this, there is poll just released that have it a 5 pt lead.
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poughies
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« Reply #21 on: October 09, 2006, 03:56:38 pm »
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ANOTHER F-ING AWFUL COLLEGE POLL! Another poll that contradicts the findings of 4 other polls. The other poll is completly garbage and I don't believe it....
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« Reply #22 on: October 09, 2006, 03:57:24 pm »
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They have Rendell up by 21 so I don't see how you don't believe it.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2006, 04:00:08 pm by Quincy »Logged
poughies
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« Reply #23 on: October 09, 2006, 04:03:34 pm »
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Just because that number matches doesn't make this one better. As for 2004, there last poll was 2 weeks before the election, so that could be linked to nailing the result with 2 weeks to go, who knows whether they would have had it right if they polled with a week to go. The governor's race matches other polls (with perhaps too much to Rendell), but the fact remains that this poll does not match a CLEAR trend towards Casey. U give me two other polls like that and maybe I'll believe it. Until then, I'll take Rasmussen.
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« Reply #24 on: October 09, 2006, 04:07:55 pm »
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Franklin Marshall 7 pts, SV 10 pts and Mason Dixon 9 pts. I think it is on track with these polls. I think the lead may not be 5 but it is around 10 pts. I don't think it is this big.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2006, 04:12:26 pm by Quincy »Logged
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