My prediction for the House is Democrats.....

[agcatter]

220 Republicans 215.

My thinking is this:

Dems sweep the open seats in Arizona, Colorado, and Iowa.

Dems take Tx 22nd (by default - I live there and despite what you may hear there is no write in campaign to speak of)

Dems sweep all 3 vulnerable seats in Indiana.

Dems take two in Florida (Foley and Katherine Harris open seats)

Dems take 2 of 3 vulnerable seats in Connecticut.

Dems get Ney seat in Ohio.

Dems pick up seat in NC.  Schuler the Dem candidate there I believe.

Dems get two in Pennsylvania.

Dems get Hyde open seat in Illinois.

Dems get one in NY.


This assumes Republicans do not pick up any Dem seats - a very fair assumption.

I think this is a fairly reasonable prediction.  What do you Dems think?

[Sam Spade]

Which one in NY.  I presume 26 and my gut tells me that it's much more likely.

In OH, I still think the Pryce and Chabot seats are much more in trouble, but this is just me.

With the Foley thingy and Iraq appearing as a larger issue, I have now upped my prediction to 20 seats, but the key thing I have to determine for the future is whether the impact from the scandal is long-lasting or short-term noise.  Early indications from individual House polls post-scandal (as opposed to the national generics) seem to be showing no real change from previous numbers, which leads me towards thinking the latter.

Anyway, your prediction is certainly not unreasonable, and it's about where I was before the Foley scandal.

[Eraserhead]

These seem pretty reasonable although I think it will turn out worse for Republicans in the end.